MS Risk Blog

Colombian Government and FARC to Sign New Peace Deal

President Juan Manuel Santos disclosed on 22 November that a new peace accord between the Colombian government and Marxist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebels will be signed on Thursday 24 November, effectively bringing a formal end to the 52-year civil war ever closer.

The revised document will be signed in Bogota between FARC leader Rodrigo Londono and President Santos, who won the Nobel Peace Prize last month for his efforts to end the conflict with the insurgent group.   During a televised address on Tuesday, President Santos stated, “We have the unique opportunity to close this painful chapter in our history that has bereaved and afflicted millions of Colombians for half a century.

Over the last four years, the Colombian government and the FARC have been in talks in Havana, Cuba in a bid to agree on a peace deal to end a conflict that has killed more than 220,000 and displaced millions in the Andean country. In a bid to build support, after the original draft was rejected in a 2 October referendum amidst objections that it was too favourable to the rebels, the government published the revised version last week. The expanded and highly technical 310-page document appears to make only small modifications to the original text, such as clarifying private property rights and detailing more fully how th rebels would be confined in rural areas for crimes committed during the war.

President Santos and London had signed the original deal two months ago in a ceremony before world leaders and United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. This time however it has been decided that the revised accord will be ratified in Congress instead of holding an other referendum – a move that will likely anger members of the opposition, particularly former President Alvaro Uribe who spearheaded the push to reject the original accord. The former Colombian leader wants deeper changes to the new version and he has already criticized it as just a slight altered version of the original. Furthermore, he wants rebel leaders to be banned from holding public office and for them to be jailed for crimes. In his televised address, President Santos stated that “this new accord possibly wont satisfy everybody, but that’s what happens in peace accords. There are always critical voices; it is understandable and respectable,” warning that another plebiscite could divide the nation and put in danger the bilateral ceasefire.

The FARC, which began as a rebellion fighting rural poverty, has battled a dozen governments as well as right-wing paramilitary groups. An end to the war with the FARC is however unlikely to end violence in the country as the lucrative cocaine business has given rise to dangerous criminal gangs and traffickers that operate throughout the country.

Boko Haram Significantly Decreases Attacks in Cameroon

Analysts reported on 16 November that Nigerian-based militant group Boko Haram has significantly scaled back attacks in Cameroon in recent months, suggesting that a regional security force is gaining ground against the militants.

According to the International Crisis Group (ICG), the Islamist movement, which controlled an area in northeastern Nigeria last year and raided Cameroon and other neighbours, including Niger, in a bid to expand its “caliphate,” has since suffered a number of defeats. One of the report’s authors, Hans de Maria Heungoup, disclosed that “we’ve seen a dizzying downwards spiral in the number of attacks suicide bombings.” Two years ago, attacks were happening on an almost daily basis, however since September that number has fallen to between six and eight a month. The study indicated that “(Boko Haram) has suffered heavy losses and seen its conventional capacities reduced,” partly thanks to last year’ formation of a 10,000-strong regional force with troops from Benin, Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria. According to the report, up to 1,000 fighters with heavy weaponry and armoured vehicles joined strikes in Cameroon’s Far North region in 2014 – 2015, however attacks have now focused on the northernmost tip of the region, where fighters have continued to control part of the fishing industry of Lake Chad.

The ICG also noted that recruitment in Cameroon has also faltered, warning however that forced enlistment remains a risk. Citing interviews with the locals, the study disclosed that up to 4,000 Cameroonians are though to have joined the group and some were given sign-on bonuses of up to US $2,000 and a motorbike, adding that those who proved their loyalty by killed their parents often enjoyed quick promotion. Analysts have disclosed that the faction around the Lake Chad Basin represents the stronger branch of the group, which is loyal to the so-called Islamic State (IS) group and which is led by Abu Musab al-Barnawi, while another faction, which is led by Abubakar Shekau, is based further south in Nigeria’s Sambisa forest.

Terrorism-Related Deaths Decreased in 2015

A report released on 16 November indicated that deaths from terrorism in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries decreased last year by 650 percent despite a marked fall globally as Nigerian-based Boko Haram militants and the so-called Islamic State (IS) Group suffered military defeats at home but carried out more attacks abroad.

The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) has reported that worldwide, there were 29,376 deaths that were caused by terrorism in 2015. This figure represents a decline of 10 percent, adding that this is the first decrease in four years. GTI disclosed that his decline was due to action against IS in Iraq and Boko Haram in Nigeria, which cut the numbers killed there by a third. IS was the deadliest group in 2015, overtaking Boko Haram. Last year, IS carried out attacks in 252 cities that led to 6,141 deaths. The index however has noted that Boko Haram’s move into neighbouring countries – Cameroon, Chad and Niger – saw the number of fatalities in the se countries increase by 157 percent.

The report however notes that the groups have spread their actions to neighbouring states and regions, where they have caused a huge increase in fatalities amongst OECD members, most of which are wealthy countries, such as the United States and European countries. According to GTI, of the 34 OECD member countries, 21 had witnesses at least one attack with most deaths occurred in Turkey and France. Last year’s terror incidents included coordinated attacks carried out by IS gunmen and suicide bombers at the Bataclan music venue, a soccer stadium and several cafes in Paris in November, which killed 130 people. The index also noted that Denmark, France, Germany, Sweden and Turkey all suffered their worst death tolls from terrorism in a single year since 2000, adding that in total twenty-three countries registered their highest ever number of terrorism deaths. Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Pakistan and Syria, which accounted for 72 percent of all deaths, were the top five ranked countries in the GTI. The United States ranked 36^th, with France coming in 29^th, Russia in 30^th and the United Kingdom in 34^th.

According to Steve Killelea, executive chairman at the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) think-tank, “while on the one hand the reduction in deaths is positive, the continued intensification of terrorism in some countries and its spread to new ones is a cause for serious concern and underscores the fluid nature of modern terrorist activity,” adding that “the attacks in the heartland of western democracies underscore the need for fast-paced and tailored responses to the evolution of these organizations.”

US-Philippines Relations

So much for Duterte’s political correctness and what it means for the US-Philippines relationship

So much for political correctness when the Philippine’s president Rodrigo Duterte branded the former U.S. President Barrack Obama with profanity in September 2016. This has canceled his planned meeting with Obama in Laos where he expected to be challenged on human rights issues. What Duterte has finally gained though was not having to confront that topic.

Duterte’s congratulatory note to President Elect Donald Trump seems to indicate an attempt to re-improve the U.S.-Philippines relationship since his spree of anti-American rhetoric in the past few months. Following the U.S. election result, Duterte also said, “The United States presidential election is a testament to the enduring traditions of its democratic system and the American way of life. The two-party system gives American voters freedom of choice based on party platforms, not just on personalities.” Caution, however, prevails on the continuity of this new attitude toward the U.S. administration, particularly when his past statements toward the U.S. have been very confusing.

Duterte has very recently cancelled an order of some 26,000 police assault rifles from the U.S. after rumors that Washington stopped the sale. According to Reuters, a U.S. senator had planned to block the arms purchase over concerns about human rights violations. This may not be as surprising because Duterte did promise during his election campaign that he would kill the alleged drug dealers and drug users in the Philippines and there has been more than 3000 killings already since his presidency in June 2016.

Duterte’s earlier comment about separation from the U.S. has also been troubling Washington because the U.S. has been the Philippine’s strongest ally. Since Duterte’s visit to Beijing in October 2016 to sign a deal worth $13.5 billion and possibly to diminish the resentment over the Philippine’s territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea, it becomes somewhat apparent that the Philippine’s president is looking to China to replace the U.S. as a major ally for the Philippines. Daniel Russel, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, however, suggested, “it would be a mistake to think that improved relationship between Manila and Beijing should come at the expense of the United States”.

It is critical to understand the relationship between the Philippines and the U.S. that has institutionalized over the years before an attempt to speculate on how this relationship could transform with Duterte’s ongoing anti-U.S. rampage.

Economic:

• The U.S. is the largest investor in the Philippines with a direct investment over $4.7 billion and the country’s third largest trading partner;
• The U.S. has provided to date over $143 million in assistance to the Philippines in relief and recovery funds to battle natural disasters;
• The U.S. has granted the Philippines preferential duty free access to the U.S. market which also makes the Philippines among the largest beneficiaries of the Generalized System of Preference (GSP) program; 

Political/Security:

• The U.S. has designated the Philippines as a major Non-NATO ally;
• The 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty offers a security partnership between the two countries;

Demographic:

• An estimated 4 million U.S. citizens of Philippine ancestry live in the U.S.;
• Over 220,000 U.S. citizens live in the Philippines;
• An estimated 650,000 U.S. citizens visit the Philippines each year;

Clearly, Duterte’s diplomatic and political demeanor worries and confuses U.S. officials. A U.S.-Philippines joint military exercise due in October 2016 have been postponed to late November 2016 after Duterte suggested earlier that the joint exercise with the U.S. would be the last of such partnership.

On the human rights matters, Washington could decide to cut military aid to the Philippines or make it subject to careful judicial procedures. Consequences could also manifest into discontinuation of GSP privilege. Manila, however, has suggested that the Philippines could sustain without U.S. assistance, particularly when the Philippine’s latest approach toward China indicates that the country may seek assistance elsewhere.

It’s too early to say that Trump’s victory will mean a continuity of the current U.S. foreign policy toward the Philippines, however, potential U.S. repercussions will not be a surprise should Duterte’s actions toward the U.S.-Philippines partnership escalate for the worse.

Late Polish President’s Remains Exhumed as Part of New Investigation into Fatal Plane Crash

Late on Monday 14 November, the remains of the late Polish President Lech Kaczynski and his wife Maria were exhumed as part of a new investigation into the fatal plane crash in Smolensk six years ago. The crash killed the couple and all 94 others on board.

The remains were removed from a marble sarcophagus in the crypt of Krakow’s historic Wawel Cathedral. Prosecutors have disclosed that new examinations are necessary in order to ensure that the victims were correctly identified, noting that the original autopsies carried out in Russia contained irregularities. Indeed, several exhumations carried out four years ago found that some of the victims were buried in the wrong graves, however more than that, prosecutors say that the forensic tests may also provide new evidence about the cause of the disaster. Further exhumations are due to be carried out in stages over the next 12 months.

The decision is highly controversial as it is opposed by some of the families of the victims. Furthermore, it is being carried out without their consent. While some families agree with the procedure, 17 families appealed to church and political leaders to prevent what they called a “ruthless” and “cruel” decision. In an opinion poll last month, just 10% of respondents supported the exhumations.

President Kaczynski’s plane crashed in dense fog just shot of the runway of a former military airbase in the Russian city of Smolensk on 10 April 2010. Senior state and military officials had been on their way to a ceremony to mark the 70^th anniversary of the Katyn massacre, in which more than 20,000 Polish officers were murdered by the Soviet secret police. Russian and Polish investigations have concluded that the crash was mainly caused by pilot error. Both reports have indicated that the pilots warned officials that the weather conditions were not sufficient to attempt a landing, however a decision was taken to descent to see if the runway could be sighted. The pilots flew too fast and too low and ignored repeated electronic warnings to pull up before smashing into the ground. While the tragedy initially united the country in grief, it has since caused much division. The investigations’ findings have never satisfied President Kaczynski’s twin brother, Jaroslaw, who now leads the governing Law and Justice party, which took office a year ago. Mr Kaczynski’s close ally, defense minister Antoni Macierewicz, has launched a fresh investigation. He has previously spoken about two explosions moments before the plane crashed and the examinations will check for traces of explosives. Indeed, about one quarter of Poles believe that President Kaczynski was assassinated, while more than two thirds of Poles do not believe the crash has been fully explained, with a majority believing that it was an accident. Previous probes have explicitly ruled out an explosion.