MS Risk Blog

US Embassy Issues Terror Warning for Burundi

The United States embassy in Burundi has warned US citizens in the country of potential attacks from “regional terror groups” targeting Western interests.

Over the weekend (3 – 4 December), the US embassy in the capital Bujumbura warned American citizens of “heightened security concerns that regional terror groups remain actively interested in attacking US and other Western and local interests in Burundi.” In an emergency message that was published on its website, the diplomatic mission disclosed that it had received “specific information leading to concern about potential activity in early December,” including, but not limited to, the Kajaga neighborhood, which is located on the outskirts of Bujumbura. The statement went on to say “the embassy has now placed the neighborhood and associated restaurants and beach clubs off limits to embassy personnel until further notice.” US citizens who do visit these areas are advised to avoid large public gatherings, especially those with no visible security presence, review or enhance personal security plans and be prepared to enact those plans.

Presidential Election in Gambia: President Concedes Defeat After 22 Years in Power

In a shocking move on Friday, 2 December, the country’s electoral commission announced Gambian President Yahya Jammeh conceded defeat to the opposition, effectively brining a dramatic end to his twenty-two years in power. Security forces were deployed heavily around the capital on Friday amidst growing tensions over whether Jammeh would accept a ballot box defeat.

Jammeh was attempting to win a fifth term in power with his Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction (APRC) party. He has been defeated by opposition leader Adama Barrow (51), a previously unknown businessman who was chosen as the opposition flag barer by a group of political parties who have joined forces for the first time and won unprecedented popular support. Early on Friday, results were positive for Barrow as he took the capital Banjul, which was a traditional Jammeh stronghold. According to the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), Barrow won nearly 50 percent of the vote in the capital city’s three constituencies, compared to 43 percent for Jammeh. During the early morning hours, military and police set up checkpoints every few hundred metres on the outskirts of the capital city. The United States has indicated that turnout in Thursday’s election appears to be high and that the vote took place in “generally peaceful conditions.” The IEC meanwhile has hailed the vote as “a very successful election.”

If the concession is confirmed, then Barrow will likely decide to serve a three-year term at the head of a transition reform government. Jammeh’s campaign manager Yankuba Colley has stated that he was not aware of the electoral commission chairman’s statement, adding however that he believed the president would step down if the Gambian people wanted it. Barrow’s camp has confirmed the IEC statement

The presidential election, which was held on Thursday 1 December, was marked by an Internet blackout that sparked condemnation from rights groups and the United States. There were also some claims of voter intimidation. A Senegalese security source also confirmed that The Gambia had closed the borders on Thursday, which is a common occurrence during elections in West Africa. Diplomats have confirmed that no professional international observers were on the ground for the vote, however a small team of African Union (AU) experts monitored events along with Banjul-based US and European delegations that were already present in the country.

Jammeh seized power in a 1994 coup and had, until now, survived multiple attempts to remove him from the presidency.

Algerian Militant Believed Killed in French Air Strike

On Monday, reports emerged that militant Mokhtar Belmokhtar, who is one of al-Qaeda’s most notorious allies in North Africa, has been killed in a French air strike.

A US official confirmed a report in the Wall Street Journal that US intelligence helped France target the veteran jihadist. The news comes as French defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian was in Washington for talks with his US counterpart Secretary of Defense Ash Carter. However neither top official confirmed the strike, which is said to have taken place in southern Libya earlier this month. Furthermore, while the Algerian militant, commander of an al-Qaeda-linked faction of the al-Murabitoun group, has been reported killed on a number of previous occasions, the official disclosed that the latest strike is believed to have finally hit the elusive militant, who was once known for kidnapping Europeans for multi-million dollar ransoms. Citing experts and unnamed officials, the Wall Street Journal reported that the strike reflects closer US and French intelligence cooperation. In the wake of the November 2015 Islamist attacks in Paris, which killed 130 people, US President Barack Obama promised that closer intelligence cooperation with Paris would begin. In 2013, Belmoktar became one of the world’s most wanted men after an attack on the In Amenas gas plant in Algeria, which left at least 38 hostages dead. Over the past few years, his group has continued to carry out deadly attacks and this year it claimed responsibly for an attack on a luxury hotel in Burkina Faso that killed another twenty people, most of them foreigners. Washington has put a US $5 million bounty on the 44-year-old head, dubbing him the leader of the Khaled Abu al-Abbas Brigade, also known as the “Signatories in Blood.” More recently, reports that he is in Libya have fuelled concern that jihadists will take advantage of the political turmoil there to establish a base of operations.

French Voters Back Fillon as Centre-Right Candidate for Next Year’s Presidential Election

France’s centre-right has rallied behind Francois Fillon as its candidate for president, with a snap opinion poll showing him the clear favourite to beat far-right leader Marine Le Pen in the presidential election in the spring.

On 27 November, Fillon, a former prime minister who vowed to change France’s “software” with an assault on public sector spending, moved one step closer to the Elysee by securing a resounding victory over Alain Juppe, another former prime minister, in the Les Republicains primary vote. Fillon secured two-thirds of the vote on Sunday, winning 66.5% to 33.5%. He however was not the favourite to win as at the start of the campaigning season, former president Nicolas Sarkozy, who was ousted in the first round of the conservative primary, and Juppe had both been given far better odds of winning the ticket than Fillon. Both men however have since rallied behind the 62-year-old in the wake of his triumph.

Meanwhile the ruling Socialist party has attempted to quell talk of a fallout between deeply unpopular President Francois Hollande and his prime minister Manuel Valls. Sources have indicated that tensions have increased between the two in recent weeks over which of them should seek the party ticket in their primary, which is set to take place in January 2017. The tensions come after Valls suggested on Sunday that he might stand against President Hollande in the party primaries. The president’s office however has disclosed that the two had lunch together on Monday in a “cordial” atmosphere and government spokesman Stephane Le Foll has stressed that Mr Valls would need to resign in order to stand. Opinion polls however have shown that whoever does run for the Left is likely to come in third behind Fillon and National Front (FN) leader Le Pen in the election’s first round next April. According to the Harris Interactive poll for French parliamentary TV, Mr Fillon would lead the National Front candidate by 26% to 24% in the first round of voting, then win the run-off against her by 67% to 33%. The same poll also indicates that Mr Hollande or Mr Valls would win just 9% for the Socialists.

The presidential election will be held over two weekends in April and May.

Iraq’s New Army

On November 26^th, the Iraqi parliament passed a bill recognising the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), as part of the Iraqi security forces. The PMF is an umbrella organisation composed of around 40 militia groups. The law does not stipulate how many forces will be incorporated under the legalised Popular Mobilisation corps, which currently claims to have more than 110,000 fighters. The Iraqi government says there are between 25,000 and 30,000 PMF members from Sunni tribal fighters and nearly all the rest are Shi’ite, with a few Yazidi and Christian units. The bill was passed with 208 votes out of 327, with no votes against due to a boycott by Sunni politicians who disagree with giving power to Shia militants. Raad al-Dahlaki, a Sunni MP, said: ‘I don’t understand why we need to have an alternate force to the army and the police.’ The law specifies that the PMF has a right to preserve their identity if they do not pose a threat to Iraq’s national security. The law allows the PMF and their formations to assume their military and security duties and activities, upon a request from Iraq’s armed forces commander when they are needed to provide support. They are also allowed to take any measures required to deter terrorist groups and security threats facing Iraq.

PMF militias rose to prominence due to their battlefield successes against IS after the collapse of the Iraqi army in 2014. More than 100,000 fighters mobilised to fill the security vacuum and prevented IS from taking Samarra and western Baghdad. The problem is that these militia groups cannot be militarily defeated, not when this would bring greater costs than benefits to a war-ravaged society and weak Iraqi state. Therefore, the institutionalisation of the PMF could help bring some order to Iraq’s atomised security structures and help to establish limits to their powers.

One of the major problems with the inclusion of the PMF, and one of the major fears from critics is that the PMF contains some of the most dangerous militia groups in Iraq. Groups like Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq have killed hundreds of US and British soldiers. They have also murdered thousands of Iraqi Sunni and Shia civilians, particularly in Baghdad, where Asaib Ahl al-Haq committed mass sectarian cleansing of Sunnis. There are also fears over the groups links with Iran.

After their hard work and success fighting IS in Iraq many believe it is right and fair that the PMF fighters get medical and logistical support plus salaries and pensions equivalent to other Iraqi soldiers. Supporters of the law believe it provides a controlled way for the fighters to receive support. It would be dangerous if the PMF starts to build up a set of parallel institutions like Iran’s Islamic revolutionary Guard Corps or Lebanon’s Hezbollah. In Iran and Lebanon these forces are powerful political, voting and intimidation machines, and they can threaten even elected ministers. However, Prime Minister Abadi has welcomed the law saying PMF is now under direct orders of the Armed Forces, which sets its regulations and represents all Iraqi people and defends them wherever they may be.