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Detention of teacher union leaders sparked clashes between protesters and authorities in southern Mexican state of Oaxaca, tensions likely to remain high in coming weeks

Clashes are likely to continue and intensify in coming weeks as CNTE protests take place across the country, particularly in the union’s stronghold states such as Oaxaca. As a key tourist hotspot those travelling to Oaxaca are likely to experience disruption to travel as protests block main entrances into and out of the city. 

The CNTE was founded in 1979 as a dissident union to the mainstream SNTE and has since been particularly strong in poor southern rural states such as Oaxaca, Chiapas and Guerrero. They are strongly opposed to the government’s 2014 education reform. Despite constant pressure in the last two years the CNTE has refused to stand down to government demands to enact the education reform and are particularly concerned about losing their right to keep a seat at the table with government in determining how teachers are hired. They have constantly asked that the union be included as a partner on education, which the government has rejected.

Over the weekend federal forces detained the secretary general of the National Education Teacher’s Union (CNTE), Rubén Nuñez Ginez, in the state of México, as well as Francisco Villalobos, the leader of the Oaxacan Section 22 of the CNTE. Supporters of the CNTE are calling the detention a “kidnapping” by the state on political grounds. The Attorney General’s Office (PGR) claim that the two union leaders are being held for alleged money laundering, aggravated robbery and illicit enrichment.

The detentions underline the highly politicised nature of the government’s relation with the CNTE, who have maintained pressure on the government to negotiate the terms of the 2014 education reform, which they outright reject. While teacher protests are a regular occurrence in the capital Mexico City, particularly during school holidays, and in other major cities in the south, protesters have upped the ante since the arrests this weekend, constructing road blocks and preventing the federal authorities from entering Oaxaca state by the official highway. 

Oaxaca

The CNTE is particularly strong in the poor southern state of Oaxaca, where the union believes rural teachers will be most affected by mass-lay offs and an education reform, which they argue does not respect local teaching practices in rural communities.

The government’s aggressive tactic to detain key leaders saw CNTE members and their families respond with vociferous opposition on Sunday, constructing more than 23 road blocks around Oaxaca city, and disrupting traffic from entering or leaving the city. Entrance and exit to Oaxaca airport and that of the beach town Puerto Escondido have been severely hampered by the roadblocks.  The authorities have responded in a heavy handed manner attempting to clear the protesters, firing tear gas and further inciting tensions between both sides. On Sunday night and Monday night clashes took place between the authorities and protesters throughout Oaxaca city. 

The Oaxaca faction Section 22 of the CNTE has maintained a strong protest movement against the government’s education reform in recent years and at key times – often in the school holidays – the teachers erect makeshift camps in major squares or outside government buildings in protest against the government’s refusal to negotiate on the terms of the reform. Throughout May authorities did not respond to the growing protests and road blocks in the city, likely because they did not want to threaten stability for the major PRI party ahead of the June 5 state election. However, with the PRI winning the state again, the authorities are now more likely to respond in a heavy-handed manner.

As such, tensions are expected to remain extremely strained in the coming weeks with regular clashes unless the government offers an avenue for dialogue or releases the detainees.

The education reform has been a highly contentious element of President Enrique Peña Nieto’s reform agenda. During the June state elections the governing PRI party suffered a series of defeats and the two-year old left-wing group MORENA, led by the charismatic Andrés Manuel Lopéz Obrador (AMLO) – formerly head of the PRD – made significant strides, notably in Oaxaca. AMLO has come out in support of the protesting teachers, which is likely to intensify the political debate around the education debate. However, with government unlikely to open new routes for dialogue with the CNTE, more disruption and potential violence is likely in the weeks ahead. 

Seven Years On: Chilcot Iraq War Inquiry Report to Finally Be Released

The official inquiry into the Iraq War will be published on 6 July, less than a fortnight after the United Kingdom holds a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union (EU)

An announcement on the inquiry’s website indicated that “Sir John Chilcot and the Prime Minister have agreed that the Iraq Inquiry’s report will be published on Wednesday 6 July 2016.” The news comes after Prime Minister David Cameroon confirmed that the report would not be published until after the 23 June EU referendum, effectively prompting criticism that the delay was to avoid embarrassing key ‘In’ campaigners.

Tony Blair, who was the Labour Prime Minister at the time of the 2003 conflict, is expected to be criticised in the report, along with other members of his government. According to Sir John, the chairman of the inquiry which started work seven years ago, the 2.6 million word report has now been vetted for national security breaches “without the need for any redactions,” adding that British spies had completed the redaction process in mid-May. The delay however was branded a “stitch up” by anti-EU MPs. Former shadow Tory home secretary David Davis MP disclosed that the delay was based on the “thinnest of excuses” and that it looked like the publication of th report had been pushed back deliberately until after the EU referendum. He stated “at long last at least it will give some comfort and closure to the loved ones of the soldiers who made the ultimate sacrifice…Nevertheless it is still outrageous that this vital report should have been delayed for so long for seven years in total,” adding, “even worse it is now delayed on the thinnest of excuses until after the EU referendum and it is the most disgraceful thing of all to put the stitching up the referendum ahead of the rights of the families of the Iraqi war dead.” Matthew Jury, a solicitor who is acting for 29 families of British soldiers who died in the Iraq War, also stated that “if national security checking of the report took two weeks, the Families are bewildered by the Inquiry’s position that it needs another two months for the simple task of proofreading and formatting,” adding, “with all the resources of the state at its disposal, absent an explanation, the Inquiry’s claim that I needs until 6 July is simply not credible.”

Sir John however has defended the two month-delay, stating that “this will allow suitable time for the Inquiry to prepare the 2.6 million word report for publication, including final proof reading, formatting, printing and the steps required for electronic publications.” Sources close to the inquiry have reported that the timing of the referendum had no bearing on the publication date.

Families of British soldiers killed in Iraq have also condemned the decision to delay publication in order to allow for Sir John Chilcot’s report to be proofread and typeset as “appalling.”

New Report Shows Number of Displaced People

According to a new report released in mid-May, the number of people internally displaced by conflicts around the world increased last year to a record 40.8 million people.

According to the new report, which was co-authored by the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) and the Geneva-based Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), some 8.6 million internally displaced people (IDPs) linked to conflict were recorded in 2015. This figure includes 4.8 million IDPS in the Middle East and North Africa. The report indicates that “displacement…has snowballed since the Arab spring uprising in 2010 and the rise of the Islamic State (IS),” with Yemen, Syria and Iraq accounting for more than half of the total. Jan Egeland, head of the NRC has disclosed that “this is the highest figure ever recorded and twice the number of refugees worldwide.”

Outside the Middle East, the countries with the highest numbers of people fleeing were Afghanistan, Central African Republic (CAR), Colombia, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Nigeria, South Sudan and Ukraine. Out of the top ten countries for IDPS, the report found that five – Colombia, DRC, Iraq South Sudan and Sudan – have featured on the same ranking every year since 2003.

The report also indicates that 19.2 million people were internally displaced last year by disasters, adding that India, China and Nepal accounted for the highest numbers with 3.7 million, 3.6 million and 2.6 million. Conflicts and natural disasters made for a total of 27.8 million new IDPs last year.

For the first time, the report also measured the numbers displaced by criminal violence associated with drug trafficking and gang activity, which, according to the report, is a problem that has remained “unquantified and unaddressed.” The report estimated that as of December 2015, there were a million IDPs in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico as a result of this type of violence.

Missing Spanish journalist in Norte de Santander department is likely to have been kidnapped by the ELN guerrilla group

On May 23 Spanish newspaper El Mundo confirmed the disappearance of their correspondent Salud Hernández-Mora from the El Tarra region in Catatumbo Norte de Santander. El Tarro, which hugs the border with Venezuela, is at the heart of illegal cross border activities and is particularly difficult to access. It is known to be under the control of the national liberation army (ELN) guerrilla group, who finance their operations by extorting businesses in the region, carrying out kidnaps and illegally smuggling oil.

The journalist travelled to the area last week to report on coca cultivation and was last seen on Saturday May 21 in El Tarra. Spanish media sources claim that is suspected that she was taken by the ELN, though the group has yet to make a public announcement. A Spanish national, Hernández-Mora has been based in Colombia for nearly two decades and is well-known for her strong views against guerrilla groups and the ongoing peace process between the government and the FARC.

While negotiations in Havana between the government and the FARC are in the final stages, the ELN guerrilla group continues to pose a threat to peace in Colombia and is yet to enter into official peace talks with the government. This latest incident underlines how the smaller guerrilla group use kidnap as a political and strategic tool, which particularly threatens the safety of business operations in rural areas of the country primed for post-conflict economic development.

Herein MS Risk analyses the current relations between the ELN and the government, the guerrilla group’s strategy around using kidnap as a political and financing tool, and future dynamics as Colombia muddles forward in its attempt to end an armed conflict that has plagued the country for more than 60 years.

The background

At the end of April President Juan Manuel Santos announced that the government would not enter into the previously publicised talks with the ELN if the group did not agree to cease all kidnap activities and release any victims currently being held. The ELN argued that this was not part of the initial negotiation and that the government was doing a u-turn on its previous commitment to enter into preliminary dialogue with the group.

The ELN’s response highlights the group’s political strategy, and in a comminque it refers to key points it wants to discuss with the Colombian state:

• societal participation in peace building efforts
• peace-based democracy
• social, political, economic transformations for peace
• victims and the end of the armed conflict

According to the group’s communique, edition 528 in their paper Insurrección, discussing kidnap and hostages is the fifth point on the agenda. The communique underlines the group’s refusal to give up kidnap as a political tool, and outlines that the Colombian state must enter into negotiations with the group in the current context. This is a different strategy to that of the FARC, who were prepared to call an official ceasefire when entering into first stage discussions with the government a number of years ago in Havana, Cuba.

Discussions between the state and the ELN are currently frozen, though the government recently sent mediatory to Caracas, Venezuela to engage with ELN representatives to push forward future negotiation plans. However, this latest event is likely to see the government back away from the negotiating table and take a more hard-line stance against the group.

Why kidnap?

Kidnap has always been at the heart of the ELN’s tactical strategy to negotiate with the government, as well as a key financing method. Unlike the FARC, the ELN has always maintained that the group is not involved in drug cultivation or trafficking. As such, extortion and kidnap, are key methods of financing its operations. The ELN’s strongholds tend to be in remote areas that are cut off from many of the state’s formal institutions, which make searching for victims particularly problematic.

According to the office of the Attorney General (Fiscalía General de la Nación), the ELN have carried out 4,900 kidnaps in Colombia since the group’s inception in 1969. This is an “official” number and the informal numbers are likely to be significantly higher, noting the lack of reporting around many cases, and the numerous copy-cat kidnaps that take place within the ELN’s wider social network that is not under central command.

The group has always taken a particularly aggressive stance towards business personnel and major corporations, claiming a Robin Hood style rationale of redistributing wealth among communities that have been historically suppressed and excluded from society. They use their revenues from extortion, kidnap and other illegal contributions to support their fighters and maintain their operational capacity.

Recent kidnap cases and dynamics

• At the end of march 2016, Ramón José Cabrales, a government advisor in Norte de Santander, was released by the ELN after his family paid a significant ransom. The group initially asked for 4000 million pesos (1.3 million USDs) and while the family likely paid significantly below this, the total ransom would still have been a significant injection of revenue for the small guerrilla group.
• The group use the threat of kidnap in their areas of influence to force companies and personnel to comply with local extortion payments. In April, two bus drivers from Flota Occidetal in Chocó were kidnapped when they refused to pay the extortion fees that the group imposed on all transport companies in the local region.
• There have been numerous cases when the group has denied direct involvement, such as the kidnap and subsequent release of Melissa Trillo in Santander department this year. While the ELN denied any involvement or knowledge of the incident, it is highly unlikely that another group could carry out a kidnap in areas with a significant ELN influence, without the group being made aware. However, this does example underlines that there are significant copy cat groups, carrying out criminal activities and claiming to be operating on behalf of the ELN network. It is likely that these groups are not operating under the centralised command structure, and would not comply to any official ceasefire arranged between the group and the Colombian state.
• There is limited official information tracking the identities of all those kidnapped by the ELN, but MS Risk’s analysis underlines that business personnel are particularly vulnerable, specifically those working in the extractives sector, agro-industries and construction in key areas under ELN control. Additionally, there have been numerous kidnaps of  local union leaders, local politicians, business leaders and landowners. The likely kidnap of the Spanish journalist highlights the political drive behind these incidents, as well as financial.
  
  Future kidnap trends

Kidnapping anywhere in the world – and particularly in this context in Colombia – is not just a criminal activity, but a highly political and complex one. Understanding how it is used as a strategy is essential for assessing future trends in Colombia, particularly in the context of the post-conflict environment. As MS Risk has been discussing in its series on post-conflict economic analysis in Colombia, the likely official end to the armed conflict between the government and the FARC will open up areas of the country to investors that have traditionally been no-go areas since the 1960s. However, the armed conflict will not end by negotiating with the FARC alone and Colombia is likely to face difficult challenges in the coming years as the country implements the peace process and attempts to develop a post-conflict economy.

Opening up key regions to investors is likely to increase the risk of violent illegal activities as groups vie for control, as well as further increasing economic inequality – a key driver of armed conflict in many regions. The Catatumbo region – where Hernandez-Mora disappeared – is one of the government’s key areas to develop its agro industrial projects to offer alternative livelihoods outside of coca cultivation. This is exactly what Hernández-Mora was reporting on before she was taken by guerrillas, underlining the high risk environment in these volatile areas. While the government is visibly trying to paint an optimistic picture surrounding the peace negotiations in Havana, if it is unable to actively engage in such negotiations with the ELN, swathes of the country are likely to remain extremely challenging for both local communities and the international investors the government is aiming to attract.

In general terms, the lack of a bilateral agreement and ceasefire between the Colombian state and the ELN outlines that in the near future the guerrilla group will not give up its key political and financial strategy of carrying out kidnaps. Moreover, current events suggest they might increase their visibility in this field to put pressure on the government to negotiate on their terms. Alongside this, many of the kidnaps and extortions carried out by the ELN are done by their wider network and are not controlled by a central command structure. Even if those names involved in official negotiations called for a ceasefire, it is unlikely that the group’s wider network engaged in criminal activity would follow.

What to watch out for 

The near-end of the armed conflict between the FARC and the government has seen significant discussion around future economic development plans, particularly in post-conflict regions. President Manuel Santos has outlined that two key industries will be the extractives sector and the agro-industries – both of which are controversial areas of business in many parts of the country, and in particular the ELN and the FARC have maintained strong opposition to extractives projects in Colombia, often victimising their workers.

The ELN have carried out numerous kidnaps against those working in the oil and gas sector, particularly personnel involved in extracting and transporting processes. MS Risk maintains that the ELN is unlikely to give up its practice of kidnap and extortion in the near term, which means companies – particularly those entering the market – in the extractives sector, are likely to face continued security threats to local and international workers. Investors looking to develop their operations in Colombia, or enter new markets through government initiatives must carry out effective due diligence at a local level to understand trends between the varying armed groups operating in the region.

For more information please contact MS Risk’s Latin America team: Philippa.williams@msrisk.com.

Boko Haram Suicide Bombings Increased in 2015

According to a new report that was published on Wednesday, suspected Boko Haram suicide bombings caused a massive increase in the number of civilian deaths an injured in Nigeria in 2015.

Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) has reported that the number of fatalities and injures increased 190 percent last year from the previous year while the use of human suicide bombers rose 167 percent during the same period. AOAV reported in “Unacceptable Harm – Monitoring Explosive Violence in 2015” that of the 3,048 deaths recorded in 84 incidents in Nigeria in 2015, 2,920 were civilian casualties, or 96 percent of the total, noting that this made Nigeria the fourth worst-hit country in the world for deaths and injuries from conflict in 2015, behind Syria, Yemen and Iraq, with Afghanistan in fifth. The London-based non-profit group has stated that the increase was part of a global trend that had seen a rise in civilian casualties from “explosive weapons” for the fourth consecutive year. “Explosive weapons” include artillery shells, landmines, air strikes, improvised explosive devices, car bombs and suicide attacks. While Boko Haram only rarely claims responsibility for attacks, there is no other group in the country known to employ suicide bombers as a tactic. The report disclosed that assuming the Islamists were behind the attacks, “then it would make them the most prolific user of suicide bombings recorded by the AOAV in 2015.” Over the past year, Boko Haram has increasingly used suicide bombings in its insurgency, which began in 2009. In particular young women and girls have become a favoured method of inflicting maximum civilian causalities in northeastern Nigerian as well as in neighboring states in the Lake Chad region. AOAV has reported that 923 civilians were killed or injured in neighboring Cameroon and Chad in eighteen incidents that were reported in 2015. Boko Haram’s use of guerrilla-style tactics has long made it difficult to combat, even though President Muhammadu Buhari maintains that the group has been “technically” defeated. On 26 April, the military warned the public in a statement that “fleeing remnant terrorists have laid landmines on stretches of farmland.” The statement further disclosed that “these latest tactics of the terrorists is a grand design to cause fear and panic among the farmers as well as the local populace,” It noted that efforts are currently underway to “neutralize” the mines. It also advised people to be wary of “strange or suspicious objects” in the soil. The latest warning risks complicating further the return of many of the over 2.6 million people displaced by the violence, amidst concern about food shortages and post-conflict reconstruction costs.

According to the AOAV report, a total of 43,786 deaths and injuries were reported worldwide in 2015 as a result of the use of explosive weapons – up two percent from 2014. Civilian deaths accounted for 33,307 or 76 percent of deaths. Over the past five years, AOAV has recorded a total of 188,331 deaths and injuries across the world.