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Military Campaigns in Iraq and Syria Reducing Number of IS Fighters

The top United States commander for the fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS) group reported this month that military campaigns in Iraq and Syria have taken 45,000 enemy combatants off the battlefield and reduced the total number of IS fighters to as few as 15,000.

Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland disclosed that both the quality and number of IS fighters is declining, warning however that it is difficult to determine accurate estimates. Earlier estimates put the number of IS fighters between 19,000 and 25,000 however US officials have stated that the range is now roughly 15,000 to 20,000.

Stating that “the enemy is in retreat on all fronts,” MacFarland disclosed that US-backed local forces in both Iraq and in neighbouring Syria have been gaining ground, adding that the flow of foreign fighters into these two countries has decreased and that many people pressed into fighting for IS are unwilling or untrained. Speaking to Pentagon reporters during a video conference, MacFarland stated, “all I know is when we go someplace, its easier to go there now than it was a year ago. And the enemy doesn’t put up as much of a fight.”

MacFarland went on to state that Syrian democratic forces are on the brink of defeating IS in Manbij, Syria, in a matter of weeks. According to MacFarland, the city is largely in the hands of the Syrian democratic forces and the pockets of enemy resistance are shrinking daily, adding, “I don’t give it very long before that operation is concluded, and that will deal a decisive blow to the enemy.” Asked how long it will take, he stated possibly a week or two, however he noted that there was still a lot of enemy foreign fighters there battling hard to keep control of the city.

Meanwhile in neighbouring Iraq, MacFarland disclosed that Iraqi forces are in a position to begin to retake the northern city of Mosul, adding that the US still has quite a bit of work to do at the Qayyarah Air Base in northern Iraq before it can be used as a hub for the battle to retake Mosul. President Barack Obama authorized the deployment of 560 more US troops to Iraq in a bid to help transform the air base into a staging area for the eventual battle to oust IS from Mosul. The group has held the city since June 2014, using it as its headquarters.   The US troops will include engineers, logistics personnel, security and communications forces. Some teams of US forces have been in and out of the base to evaluate it and the work that must be done, with officials stating that large numbers of troops have not yet arrived.

Despite successes in both countries against the militant group, MacFarland cautioned that Is will continue to be a threat, stating, “military success in Iraq and Syria will not necessarily mean the end of Daesh,” using an Arabic acronym for the Islamic state group.” H e went on to state that “we can expect the enemy to adapt, to morph into a true insurgent force and terrorist organization capable of horrific attacks like the one here on July 3 in Baghdad and those others we’ve seen around the world.”

UN Reports Thousands Yazidis Held Captive by IS

The United Nations has reported that thousands of Yazidis are being held captive by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group in Syria, where many are used for sexual slavery or forced to fight for the group. The report comes on the second anniversary of what investigators have termed a genocide.

A UN-appointed commission of independent war crimes investigators disclosed in June that IS was committing genocide against the Yazidis, which is a religious community comprising of 400,000 people in northern Iraq. It noted that the genocide began with an attack on their city of Sinjar on 3 August 2014. The UN further disclosed that most of the captives have been taken to neighbouring Syria, “where Yazidi women and girls continued to be sexually enslaved and Yazidi boys indoctrinated, trained and used in hostilities.” The UN has reported that around 3,200 Yazidi women and girls are being held captive and that thousands of men and boys remain missing.

The designation of genocide, rare under international law, would effectively mark the first recognized genocide carried out by non-state actors, rather than a state or paramilitaries acting on its behalf.

French Missions Close in Turkey Over Security Fears

On 13 July, French diplomatic missions in Turkey’s two main cities closed until further notice and cancelled planned events to mark France’s 14 July National Day due to security concerns.

The French consulate general in Istanbul had been due to hold a reception on Wednesday evening to mark national Day, while French mission in Ankara and the Aegean coastal city of Izmir had planned to hold events on Thursday. However on Wednesday, a statement issued by the French Embassy in Ankara disclosed that “for security reasons, July 14^th receptions planned in Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir are cancelled,” adding that it had informed the Turkish authorities of the decision and was in close contact with them. The statement also indicated that “the embassy of France in Ankara, as well as the consulate general in Istanbul will be closed from Wednesday July 13, 1 PM (1100 BST), until further notice.” Earlier in the day, the consulate general in Istanbul indicated that there was information suggesting a “serious threat against plans for the celebration of the July 14 national holiday in Turkey.”

Turkey is facing multiple threats, including from militants belonging to the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, who have been blamed for a triple suicide bombing at Istanbul’s main airport several weeks ago, which killed 45 people and wounded hundreds. The attack was the deadliest in a series of bombings that have occurred this year in the NATO member state.

Islamic State has Lost Territory in Iraq and Syria This Year

According to a defense consultancy, the so-called Islamic State (IS) group has lost 12% of the territory it controlled in Iraq and Syria in the first half of this year.

IHS has found that the “caliphate,” which was proclaimed by IS two years ago, has shrunk to 68,300 sq km (26,370 sq miles). According to IHS, in January 2015, just six months after IS declared the creation of a caliphate, the terror group controlled some 90,800 sq km of Iraq and Syria, adding that by December, that had shrunk by 12,800 sq km to 78,000 sq km, a net loss of 14%. According to IHS, since then IS has lost a further 9,700 sq km and now controls 68,300 sq km, which is roughly the size of the Republic of Ireland or the US state of West Virginia.

In Syria, IS has come under pressure from Syrian government forces, who are backed by Russia and Iran, and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighters who are supported by a US-led multinational collation.   In February, the SDF captured the eastern town of Shaddadi, which was a major hub for IS, while in March, the ancient town of Palmyra was retaken by government forces. In neighbouring Iraq, troops and allied militiamen are preparing a long-awaited offensive to retake the northern city of Mosul, which is IS’s last remaining urban stronghold there.

IHS has reported that the losses of land in Iraq and Syria had led IS to set up its attacks on civilian targets elsewhere in the Middle East and in Europe, noting that such attacks are likely to intensify. Last week, almost 300 people died in an IS suicide bombing in Baghdad, Iraq. The attck came just days after the Iraqi government declared that it had retaken full control of the city of Fallujah, which is located just west to the capital.

Peruvian president-elect, who takes up office this month is likely to face an uphill battle to enact his political agenda, with a bitterly divided parliament

At the end of July, the 77 year old president-elect Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (head of the centre-right Peruvians for Change Party) will be sworn into office in Peru’s capital, Lima. The country is still recovering from the political polarisation that marked the presidential election and the new government face an uphill challenge as they take power with a marginal representation in Congress and strong opposition from both fellow right-wing parties and the left-wing opposition.

The political polarisation during the bitterly fought campaign was partly fuelled by Keiko Fujimori’s presence, who was leading in the polls and won the first round vote. Keiko is a controversial political presence in Peru, both loved and hated and inextricably linked to the legacy of her father, former-president Alberto Fujimori, who left office in the 1990s and was sentence to prison charged with corruption and human rights abuses during his time in office.

In this context, the eventual election of the uncharismatic, fiscally conservative technocrat Kuczynski, was at heart an anti-Fujimori vote. Members of the left and right wing formed a rare united front to back the president-elect in the second round vote and block Fujimori from becoming president. However, the extremely tight race saw the president-elect win by minuscule margins with the final count declaring his presidency with 40,000 additional votes.

The effects of such a tight margin? Kaczynski is likely to face constant blockages from all sides as he tries to enact his campaign pledges and develop a strong political agenda.

A challenging agenda ahead

Kuczynski’s government will face significant battles in Congress where Fujimori’s Party (Fuerza Popular) hold the majority of the 130 parliamentary seats. However, opposition from fellow-right wing Fuerza Popular is not the only challenge. Leader of the left-wing Frente Amplio, Verónika Mendoza, only supported the president-elect in the second round vote to keep Fujimori from office and has already declared that she will not form a government with the president’s party. Amid the current political uncertainty as to how the minority government will rule, there has been much media speculation around the Executive Committee in Congress and Fujimori’s future position.

The challenges for Kuczynski will be apparent from day 1, as the president attempts to focus on his two key campaign topics: the economy and citizen security. He will focus on increasing economic investment in the country, particularly in the controversial extractives sector and has campaigned to decrease regulation to lessen the burden for investors, though arguably also lessening the guarantees for those protecting environmental, social and cultural rights.

His vision of citizen security focuses on increasing the number of police and their capacity to fight organised crime by giving them more power. This, in a region that is experiencing the effects of the militarisation of police in the fight against organised crime and the subsequent abuses of power, has been viewed as problematic by many, while his supporters highlight the need for a Mano Dura (heavy hand) to protect citizens.

Throughout the election campaign, the role of narco-trafficking was bizarrely rarely mentioned considering Peru is facing an uptick in coca production. Moreover, with rising domestic consumption South America is now a key target for widespread narco-trafficking operations. However, it is likely that the president-elect will incorporate this into his “citizen security” plan, to enhance confidence in the police and develop intelligence capabilities to destroy crops and trafficking operations, particularly in key commercial hotspots.

Security Programmes – more snooping?

The new president has yet to outline his plan to increase prison capacity but has criticised Fujimori’s claims to build prisons above 4000 metres, claiming such measures were insufficient to address the roots of the problem around violent crime.

Kuczynski has voiced his support for former-Colombian president Álvaro Uribe’s security strategies during his time in office. Uribe focused on regionalising security and intelligence capabilities to oversee activities across the country. Peru’s president-elect has outlined his plans to develop relations with local villagers and regional authorities to create security watch dogs to “police” at a local level. What is not clear is whether these types of security programmes will necessitate special presidential powers to effectively allow more snooping. Such special powers are likely to be contested by other groups in parliament who will see this as a breach of citizen rights.

The president-elect’s security programmes include reforms to the National Intelligence Directorate, who are responsible for developing strategic information and running the National Intelligence System, overseeing military and police intelligence. This underlines that there will be transfer of inception communication with the national police forces who are responsible for fighting organised crime. In the same way it’s thought that the Financial Intelligence Unit will increase its powers and open investigations against those people and companies involved in crime and corruption.

What does this mean? The new president is likely to push for increased “snooping” to keep organised criminals at bay, whether this is an effective method or not is highly disputed. Whatever the outcome, he is unlikely to pass such special guarantees without a fight in parliament. For investors, due diligence into local partners will be critical to ensure that companies are compliant with local, state, federal and international regulations.

Who investigates who?

Another polemical discussion taking place is over which party will oversee the Fiscal Commission, responsible for carrying out anti-corruption and fraud investigations against members of parliament and government. This body recently required notoriety following its investigation into the role of drug-trafficking within Peruvian political elites. Members of Fujimora’s Fuerza Popular claim that they should lead the Commission as they have the majority in parliament. However, considering their party is currently under investigation on the grounds of illicit financing for Fujimori’s election campaign in 2011, many members of parliament are suspect about their independence to lead such a body.

Eyes on the road ahead

The political balancing act that Peru is now facing means that in the medium and long term the president elect will have to try and create a cross-party consensus on key issues to develop his political agenda. While at their heart the PPK and the Fuerza Popular, both conservative parties, have relatively similar policy angles when it comes to security and the economy, there are likely to be constant tensions between the majority Fujimoristas and the governing party. This will threaten Kuczynski’s ability to consolidate his political project and will seriously hamper his ability to follow through on his election promises.

While he has not finalised his government, it looks like the new president will bring together a group of experts and technocrats, highlighting that he will pick from those who were not part of his campaign. What is still unknown is whether the Peruvian Congress will pass the rights for the president to carry out reforms in the security and economic sector in the short term.

While investors might greet his plans to cut the red tape and deregulate some key industries to increase competition and investment, he is likely to face significant opposition from some quarters on environmental and social grounds. Investors looking at Peru, particularly in the extractives sector, should pay close attention to the president’s first three months in office to gage how he is likely to move ahead on this campaign pledge. Peru has faced significant challenges in its extractives sector and investors must be aware of the propensity for social activism if they do not develop cohesive operating plans with the local community.

Finally investors should be aware of the links between political elites at both a local, state and federal level and narcotrafficking activities and companies are advised to carry out due diligence to ensure they are aware of the risks within future operating environments.