Key Judgments: It is likely that negative market sentiment will drive inflationary pressures in the next 12 months. (High confidence). It is likely that the Bank of England will not cut interest rates in the next 12 months. (Low confidence). It is highly likely that...
Key Judgement: Within the next three months, it is likely that political disruption of current administration would be continue. It is likely that current government would not strongarm farmer protest. The current Polish Prime Minister, who first ascended to power in 2007, initially gained recognition...
In response to a drone strike that killed three U.S. soldiers at the U.S. Tower 22 facility in Jordan, the United States began targeted airstrikes against Iran-backed militia positions in Syria and Iraq. President Biden emphasised a measured approach, while Syrian and Iraqi authorities expressed alarm...
Topic: An analysis of the targeted killing of Russian defector Maxim Kuzminov in Spain and online Russian disinformation campaigns in Western and Southern Europe: What effects do these events have on the security of Western and Southern Europe? Key Judgements: Maxim Kuzminov is highly likely to...
Key Judgments: The Houthis’ capability to attack subsea cables in the Red Sea is dependent on Iranian intelligence. There is a realistic probability that the subsea cables will be attacked. Severe disruption, however, is unlikely. Since October, the Houthi militants have captured the world’s attention...
Belarus For the past month, Belarus has conducted mass raids, interrogation and arrest against political prisoners and its friends and relatives. According to Vasana Human Rights Centre, Belarusian human rights group reported that this is one of the most serious crackdowns in recent years. In late...
Israel has a long history of conflict with Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), all of which are designated as terrorist organizations by Israel and other nations. Israel has recently been conducting targeted operations to remove key individuals within these organisations' leadership....
Key Judgment: Within the next six (6) months, it is highly likely that we will continue to see disruption to commercial shipping in the Red Sea by the Houthi rebels. Due to the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the Houthi’s, a Shia Islamist rebel group...
It is no secret that the threat of jihadist terrorism has been of pressing concern for intelligence agencies and communities across Western and Southern Europe for a considerable length of time now. From a UK perspective, in mid-November 2022, the director of MI5, General Ken...
Belarus As one of the remaining allay of Russia in European region, Belarus has been in the unique position of representing Russian interest. This has been continued for the last 1 month. Russia has completed shipments of short-range, tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, which raised strong...