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Tensions on the Rise Between NATO and Russia

Britain has disclosed that it will send fighter jets to Romania next year while the United States has promised troops, tanks and artillery to Poland in what is NATO’s biggest military build-up on Russia’s borders since the Cold War.

NATO’s aim is to make good on a July promise by NATO leaders to deter Russia in Europe’s ex-Soviet states, after Moscow orchestrated the annexation of the Crimea peninsula in 2014. During a defense ministers meeting in Brussels in late October, several NATO allies joined the four battle groups led by the United States, Germany, Britain and Canada to go to Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia. Canada has stated that it was sending 450 troops to Latvia, joined by 140 military personnel from Italy. Britain’s Defense Secretary Michale Fallon disclosed that Britain would send an 800-strong battalion to Estonia, supported by French and Danish troops, starting from May. London is also sending Typhoon fighter aircraft to Romania to patrol around the Black Sea, partly in support of Turkey. Fallon noted that “although we are leaving the European Union, we will be doing more to help secure the eastern and southern flanks of NATO.” Meanwhile Germany has stated that it was sending between 400 and 600 troops to Lithuania, with additional forces from the Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, Croatia and Luxembourg.

According to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, allies’ commitments would be “a clear demonstration of our transatlantic bond.” Meanwhile diplomats have disclosed that the move would also send a message to US Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who has complained that European allies do not pay their way in the alliance.

Stoltenberg has disclosed that the troop contributions to a new 4,000-strong force in the Baltics and Eastern Europe were a measured response to what the alliance believes are some 330,000 Russian troops that are stationed on Russia’s western flank near Moscow. NATO’s plan is to set up four battle groups with a total of some 4,000 troops from early next year, backed by a 40,000-strong rapid-reaction force, and if need be, follow-on forces. According to US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter, as part of that, a “battle-ready battalion task force” of about 900 soldiers would be deployed to eastern Poland, as well as another, separate force equipped with tanks and other heavy equipment to move across eastern Europe, adding “it’s a major sign of the US commitment to strengthening deterrence here.” Stoltenberg has disclosed that “this month alone, Russia has deployed nuclear-capable Iskander missiles to Kaliningrad and suspended a weapons-grade plutonium agreement with the United States.” Those ballistic missiles can hit targets across Poland and the Baltics however NATO officials have declined to disclose whether Russi had moved nuclear warheads to Kaliningrad. He further accused Russia of continued support for rebels in Ukraine.

The decision to deploy additional forces in Eastern Europe came on the same day that two Russian warships armed with cruise missiles entered the Baltic Sea between Sweden and Denmark, underscoring East-West tensions. Russian media reported in late October that Russia is sharply upgrading the firepower of its Baltic Fleet by adding warships armed with ling-range cruise missiles to counter NATO’s build-up in the region. While so far there has been no official confirmation from Moscow, the reports will raise tensions in the Baltic region, and will particularly cause alarm in Poland and Lithuania, which border Russia’s base there. NATO and the Swedish military have confirmed that the two warships have entered the Baltic.

Russia’s daily Izvestia newspaper cited a military source as stating that the first two of five ships, the Serpukhov and the Zeleny Dol, had already entered the Baltic Sea and would soon become part of a newly formed division in Kaliningrad, which is Russia’s European exclave that is sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania. Another source familiar with the situation told the Interfax news agency that the two warships would be joining the Baltic Fleet in the coming days. According to the source, “with the appearance of two small missile ships armed with the Kalibr cruise missiles the Fleet’s potential targeting range will be significantly expanded in the northern European military theatre.”

US Air Strikes on the Rise in Afghanistan as Struggles Against Taliban, IS Continues

This year, American air strikes in Afghanistan have already significantly surpassed the total number of strikes that were carried out last year, in what is a stark indicator of the United States’ struggle to extricate itself from the conflict and to stick to its declared “non-combat” mission.

According to US military officials, between 1 January and 20 October this year, American warplanes conducted around 700 air strikes compared to about 500 in total carried out last year. Furthermore, about 240 were under rules that were approved by President Barack Obama in June, which effectively allowed US forces to more actively support Afghan troops during strategic combat operations. Also a similar number were conducted against “counter terrorism” targets, including about fifty against al-Qaeda and 190 against the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. Other air strikes can be conducted in defense of US and international military advisors, as well as some Afghan troops. American air strikes have been credited with helping to prevent Taliban forces from completely overrunning cities like Lashkar Gah, the capital of embattled Helmand province. However despite the air strikes, militants continue to contest or control as much as a third of the country.

This rise in strikes signals a deeper role for American forces that is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. While ending US involvement in Afghanistan was one of President Obama’s signature promises, with him going on to declare the combat mission over at the end of 2014, in the last year of his presidency, however, rising violence has led President Obama to keep more US forces in the fight, both to target a growing IS presence, but also to back up Afghan troops who have been struggling to combat IS and Taliban militants. This year, top American military commanders in Afghanistan successfully pressed the president to reverse an earlier restriction on the use of air strikes, therefore clearing the way for a rise in attacks on IS and Taliban targets.

In a statement, US military spokesman Brigadier General Charles Cleveland disclosed that “the increase in strikes is due to the additional authorities US forces received and due to the Afghan change in strategy to offensive operations.” The statement goes on to say that “the new authorities have allowed the US to be more proactive and deliberate in supporting this year’s Afghan offensive operations and in aggressively targeting (Islamic State).”

With no end in sight for one of America’s longest wars, any decisions on the future of the I strikes, and the nearly 9,000 US troops who will remain in Afghanistan, will be up to the winner of the 8 November American presidential election. In a report release in October outlining challenges for the next president, a dozen former US military commanders and ambassadors to Afghanistan wrote that “it will be important to ask if the relaxation of rules of engagement that President Obama provided to American/NATO forces in Afghanistan in 2016 should go further, allowing even more substantial use of their air power against the Taliban.”

Colombia Delays Peace Talks with ELN

Colombia has announced that it is delaying peace talks with Marxist National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels until they free a politician who has been held captive for six months. President Juan Manuel Santos made the announcement on 27 October as he struggles to salvage a peace agreement with the FARC that was rejected in a referendum.

Reiterating a condition he set months ago, President Santos disclosed that the ELN, which is the country’s second-biggest insurgent group, must release Odin Sanchez to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) before talks can begin in Ecuador. The opening ceremony had been scheduled to take place in Ecuador’s capital on 27 October at 6 PM ED (2200 GMT) however it was cancelled at the last minute.

Furthermore, recent remarks by ELN members have posed a setback to the talks. Member of the ELN Negotiating Team Pablo Beltran has disclosed that the group has the right to “deprive liberty” from people in the armed conflict in Colombia, effectively meaning that the group claims that kidnapping is their legal right. Statements by Pablo Beltran have also caused problems for the negotiations to release Mr Sanchez.

The 2,000-strong ELN, which is considered a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union (EU), had kidnapped hundreds of people during its 52-year insurgency in order to raise funds and use hostages as bargaining ships with the Colombian government.

The talks with the ELN are likely to mirror those, which were held with the FARC. The peace agreement was signed on 26 September with the FARC and while it was internationally lauded, it was criticised by many in Colombia for being too lenient on the rebels. Former President Alvaro Uribe is now leading the effort to change the agreement that would have given the FARC guaranteed congressional seats and immunity from traditional jail sentences.

Gambia Launches Bid to Leave ICC Following Several Other African Countries

The Gambia this month announced that it will be leaving the International Criminal Court (ICC) after Burundi and South Africa launched their own similar petitions in October to leave the court, which has been criticized by a number of African countries.

On Tuesday, 26 October the Gambian government announced that it is withdrawing from the International Criminal Court (ICC), accusing the world body of ignoring the “war crimes” of Western nations and seeking only to prosecute Africans. Speaking on state television, Information Minister Sheriff Bojang disclosed that “this action is warranted by the fact that the ICC, despite being called the International Criminal Court, is in fact an International Caucasian Court for the persecution and humiliation of people of colour, especially Africans.” The statement from Gambia, whose citizens make up disproportionately high proportion of the African migrant flow to Europe, further disclosed that it had sought to bring the European Union (EU) before the ICC over the deaths of migrants however it had received no response. It disclosed, “there are many Western countries, at least 30, that have committed heinous war crimes against independent sovereign states and their citizens since the creation of the ICC and not a single Western war criminal has been indicted.”

The decision by The Gambia comes just days after South Africa also announced that it was quitting The Hague-based tribunal. The ICC has yet to comment on the move, however coming soon after South Africa’s announcement, Gambia’s decision to also quit the court has added to pressure on the world’s first permanent war crimes court. Burundi has already said that it is planning to leave while Kenya’s parliament has disclosed that it is considering following suit. The ICC has had to fight off allegations that it is pursuing a neo-colonial agenda in Africa, where all but one of its ten investigations have been based.

Colombian Government and FARC Willing to Hear Plans to Change Peace Agreement

The Colombian government and Marxist FARC rebels have disclosed that they are willing to listen to proposals to alter their peace accords after a negotiated agreement was unexpectedly rejected during a referendum, effectively leaving the country in limbo.

In a joint statement from Havana, Cuba, negotiators from the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) disclosed that after four years of talks, they have the “necessary reforms and measures to achieve peace and guarantee an end to the conflict.” The two sides however noted that they recognized that the accord was rejected in a 2 October referendum, adding that they were willing to listen to proposed adjustments. In the statement, which was ready by lead government negotiator Humberto de la Calle, both sides disclosed that “it’s right that we continue listening to different sectors of society in a quick and efficient manner to understand their concerns and promptly find a solution.” The statement however did not provide details of the next steps.

In a vote that confounded opinion polls and was a disaster for President Santos, Colombians narrowly rebuffed the pact as to lenient on the rebels.

In Bogota, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos and representatives have been listening to the views of those who voted against the deal, led by former President Alvaro Uribe. Those will be presented by government negotiations at some point to the FARC for discussion. Uribe opposed the peace talks from the beginning, later stating that the deal gave too many concessions to the rebels. He spearheaded the “no” campaign, urging Colombians to reject the accord, which would have given the FARC guaranteed congressional seats and immunity from traditional jail sentences. His side won by half a percentage point.

The statement from the two sides comes just hours after President Santos was awarded the 2016 Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to end the 52-year-old war with the FAR. The Norwegian Nobel Committee disclosed that the Colombian leader had brought one of the longest civil wars in modern history closer to a peaceful solution, noting however that the process could still collapse given the results of the referendum.