Category Archives: Uncategorized

From bad to worse: Fleeing the Northern Triangle for Mexico

The contemporary security situation in Mexico is affected by various external factors. According to the UNHCRs international protection chief, the stream of refugees from the Northern Triangle of Central America constitutes one of these factors. The UN official, Volker Trk, described the situation as approaching crisis levels. For decades, Mexico has served as a place of transit for Central American migrants heading north. But in the last few years the reality has changed with an increasing number of people from the so-called Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, actually seeking asylum in Mexico. The inflow is increased even more due to the recent crackdown by the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency (ICE) on illegal immigrants and the resulting increase in deportations back down south to the Northern Triangle and Mexico. Last year, Mexico received almost 9,000 new asylum applications, a 156 per cent increase in comparison to 2015. Since January 2015, the number of asylum applications filed has increased by more than eight per cent per month. Based on this trend, the UN Refugee Agency projects at least 20,000 additional asylum claims in Mexico in 2017. However, for those fleeing from extortion, forced recruitment and human rights abuses perpetrated by transnational organized crime groups and local criminal gangs, Mexico is not necessarily the Promised Land as violence in Americas southern neighbor is not particularly letting up. After years of falling homicide levels, Mexico is suffering a deteriorating security situation not seen since former president Felipe Calderon announced a war on drug gangs in 2007. Veracruz, home to rival cartels such as the Zetas and the Jalisco New Generation saw 1,258 registered homicides last year alone. This month, authorities confirmed the discovery of more than 250 bodies in what appears to be a drug cartel mass burial ground on the outskirts of the city of Veracruz. The clandestine graves are of such an industrial scale that backhoes or bulldozers were likely used in creating them and contain so many bodies that officials arent digging in some places because they dont have space for the remains. Another site south of the city of Veracruz where there were apparently also clandestine graves, is not being explored yet, because the morgues cant handle all the bodies. The industrial nature of the mass graves make it unlikely that authorities did not know about them. Meanwhile, the former governor of Veracruz, Javier Duarte is being sought over allegations he was involved in organized crime and money laundering. Elsewhere in Mexico, hidden graves have been found containing hundreds of bodies. In January, 56 bodies were found in a grave in the northern state of Nuevo Leon, where drug cartels vie for control of the routes toward the US. So, while the refugees are leaving a terrible situation behind, coming to Mexico might mean they are jumping out of the frying pan into the fire.

Syrian War: 465,000 Killed in Six Years of Fighting

This month, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which is a British-based war monitor, reported that so far about 465,000 people have been killed and missing in Syrias ongoing civil war.

The war began six years ago on 15 March, with protests against President Bashar al-Assads government. Since then, it has dragged in global and regional powers, allowed the so-called Islamic State (IS) group to gain hold of huge tracts of territory and has caused the biggest refugee crisis since the Second World War.

The Observatory has reported that it had documented the deaths of more than 321,000 people since the beginning of the war, adding that more than 145,000 people have been reported as missing. The Observatory, which has used a network of contacts across the country in order to maintain a count of causalities since near the beginning of the conflict, states that amongst those killed are more than 96,000 civilians, adding that government forces and their allies killed more than 83,500 civilians, including more than 27,500 in air strikes and 14,600 under torture in prison. Rebel shelling killed more than 7,000 civilians. IS has killed more than 3,700 civilians, while air strikes by the US-led coalition have killed 920 civilians. Turkey, which is backing rebels in the northern region of the country, has killed more than 500 civilians. The Syrian government and Russia both deny targeting civilians or using torture or extrajudicial killings. Most rebel groups and Turkey also deny targeting civilians while the US led-coalition states that it tries hard to avoid civilian causalities and always investigates reports that it has done so.

French Election: Leading Candidates Clash in First TV Debate

The two leading candidates in the French presidential election clashed on Monday 21 March during a fiery TV debate.

Five candidates participated in Monday evenings debate: far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, centrist Emmanuel Macron, centre-right contender Francois Fillon, and left-wingers Benoit Hamon and Jean-Luc Melenchon. All five discussed the big issues for France, including jobs, terrorism and the countrys place in Europe.

Le Pen and Macron clashed over the full-body burkini swimsuit worn by some Muslim women, with Ms Le Pen stating that multiculturalism must end. Mr Macron accused the National Front leader of making enemies of Muslims in France. Throughout the debate, Mr Macron appeared to be keen to take on Ms Le Pen, arguing that the burkini was a public order matter and not a challenge to Frances tradition of secularism as Ms Le Pen has suggested. Last summer, a number of southern French resorts banned the swimsuit before Frances highest administrative court found that the ban breached fundamental freedoms.

During the debate, Mr Macron stated that he would change the countrys traditional political divisiveness, while Ms Le Pen said that she wanted a France that was not a vague region of the EU or subservient to Chancellor Angela Merkels Germany. She later vowed to stop all immigration. Meanwhile Mr Fillon stated that if was elected, he would be the president of what he called the national recovery. Mr Macron also appeared to take a swipe at Mr Fillon. After accusing Ms Le Pen of defamation, he stated that justice would prevail as it would in the case of certain presidential candidates. That was an apparent reference to the ongoing judicial investigation into allegations that Mr Fillon paid his wife hundreds of thousands of euros for parliamentary work that she did no do. Mr Fillon has denied the allegations and has refused to quit the race, stating that he is a victim of a political assassination. The candidates also clashed over how to tackle the unemployment situation, which has long stood at about 10%. In a bid to broaden her appeal, Ms Le pen called for a patriotic economy, which is a protectionist measure that favours French companies. Mr Fillon however stated that her plans would cause economic chaos. On the left, Mr Hamon called for the introduction of a universal basic income, which he said was the only innovative idea in the election campaign.

Focus groups have suggested that Mr Macron was the winner of the debate.

Voters will go to the polls on 23 April and if no candidate wins more than 50% of the votes, the two top contenders will go into a second round on 7 May. The latest Odoxa poll states that Mr Macron would lead first-round voting with 26.5 percent, just ahead of Ms Le pen on 26 percent, before beating her 64 36 in the run-off. Mr Fillon scored 19 percent of first-round voting intentions in the poll, confirming the task faced by the on-time frontrunner to revive a campaign that has been severely hit by the fraud investigation. A separate poll by Kantar Sofres-Onepoint showed a similar trend for the first round, with Mr Macron and Ms Lepen tied on 26 percent, ahead of Mr Fillon on 17 percent. The polls were taken before Mondays TV Debate.

On Saturday 18 March, the officials campaign period got under way when Frances Constitutional Council announced a list of eleven contenders who had met conditions to stand.

US Charges Russian Spies, Hackers in Yahoo Hack

The United States last week charged two Russian intelligence agents and two criminal hackers with masterminding the 2014 theft of 500 million Yahoo accounts in a move that marks the first time that the US government has criminally charged Russian spies with cyber offenses.

The 47-count Justice Department indictments on Wednesday 15 March included charges of conspiracy, computer fraud and abuse, economic espionage, theft of trade secrets, wire fraud, access device fraud and aggravated identify theft. The charges also paint a picture of the Russian security services as working hand-in-hand with cyber criminals, who helped spies further their intelligence goals in exchange for using the same exploits to make money. Speaking at a press conference to announce the charges, Acting Assistant Attorney General Mary McCord disclosed that the criminal conduct at issue, carried out and otherwise facilitated by officers from an FSB unit that serves as the FBIs point of contact in Moscow on cyber crime matters, is beyond the pale. Russias Federal Security Service (FSB) is the successor to the KGB. McCord further disclosed that the hacking campaign was awarded by the FSB in order to collect intelligence but that the two hackers used the collected information as an opportunity to line their pockets.

The indictment named the FSB officers involved as Dmitry Dokuchaev and his superior, Igor Sushchin, both of whom are in Russia. According to Russian news agency Interfax, Dokuchaev was arrested for treason in December. According to the Justice Department, the alleged criminals involved in the scheme include Alexsey Belan, who is amongst the FBIs most-wanted cyber criminals and was arrested in Europe in June 2013 however he escaped to Russia before he could be extradited to the US. Karim Baratov, who was born in Kazakhstan but also has Canadian citizenship, was also named in the indictment. The Justice Department disclosed that Baratov was arrested in Canada on 14 March. Officials in Toronto have confirmed the arrest. The US does not have an extradition treat with Russia, with McCord stating that she was hopeful that Russian authorities would cooperate in bringing criminals to justice. The US often charges cyber criminals with the intent of deterring future state-sponsored activity.

The charges announced last week are not related to the hacking of Democratic Party emails during the 2016 US presidential election. US intelligence agencies have stated that they were carried out by Russian spy services, including the FSB, in order to help the campaign of Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Yahoo disclosed when it announced the then-unprecedented breach last September, that it believed that the attack was state-sponsored. On Wednesday, the company stated that the indictment unequivocally shows that to be the case.

According to the indictment, in the 2014 breach, at least thirty million of the Yahoo accounts were the most seriously affected, with Belan being able to burrow deep into their accounts and taking user contact lists that were later used for a financially motivated spam campaign. The indictment went on to say that Belan also stole financial information, such as credit card numbers and gift cards. Yahoo had previously stated that about 32 million accounts had fallen victim to the deeper attack, which it said leveraged forged browser cookies to access accounts without the need for a password. According to Wednesdays indictment, FSB officers Sushchin and Dokuchaev also directed Baratov to use the information gained in the Yahoo breach to hack specific targets who possessed email accounts with other service providers, including Google. The incitement charged that when Baratov was successful, Dokuchaev would reward him with a bounty.

In December 2016, Yahoo announced another breach that occurred in 2013 and which affected 1 billion accounts. At the time, Special Agent Jack Bennett of the FBIs San Francisco Division disclosed that the 2013 breach is unrelated and that an investigation of that incident is ongoing. The hacks forced Yahoo to accept a discount of US $350 million in what had been a US $4.83 billion deal to sell its main assets of Verizon Communications Inc.

The charges come amidst a number of controversies relating to alleged Kremlin-backed hacking of the 2016 US presidential election and the possible links between Russian figures and associates of US President Donald Trump, as well as uncertainty about whether President Trump is willing to respond forcefully to aggression from Moscow in cyberspace and elsewhere.

Brexit: What Occurs When Article 50 is Triggered?

If the UK government sticks to its timetable, then Article 50 will be triggered by the end of this month. But how and when? And what happens next?

What is Article 50?

The referendum last June was the UK’s signal that it wants to leave the European Union, and Article 50 is the format notification of the UK’s intention to leave – effectively it is the start of the leaving process, which will last two years.

The article itself is a short, five-point text that was enshrined into EU law as part of the Lisbon Treaty in 2009. Prior to that, there was no process for leaving the EU. The text is vague, brief and is open to interpretation. Furthermore, it has never been tested before as no member has ever left the EU. Likewise there is no precedent, no patter to follow and therefore the process and procedures for leaving the EU are unclear.

How is Article 50 Triggered?

Due to the lack of precedent, the mechanics of triggering Article 50 are only now being discussed by officials in both London and in Brussels. The only requirement is that the notification is made in writing to the President of the European Council. Therefore it could be as simple as one line and sent in the form of an email, however given the enormity of the decision and the symbolism of the moment, it is likely that the UK government will make more of it. The notification letter may therefor include a reference to the UK government’s repeated desire that the EU remain a strong partner for Britain after Brexit. The letter could also be hand-delivered to the European Council building in Brussels. However by who it remains unclear, although it could be by Britain’s Ambassador to the EU, Sir Tome Barrow, or the Brexit Secretary, David Davis MP.

When Will Article 50 Be Triggered?

When to pull Article 50 is entirely up to the country that is planning to leave the EU. In the case of the UK, Prime Minister Teresa May has repeatedly indicated that she will do it by March. Time however is quickly running out, and the process have been further complicated by politics and sensitivities both in the UK and in Europe.

Domestically, politics between the House of Lords and the House of Commons has deployed the process. Only once the Brexit bill has been cleared by both houses and received royal ascent, will Prime Minister May be in a position to trigger it. However there are several dates which have been deemed as being inappropriate for a triggering.

• 15 March – All eyes will be on the Dutch election, which could be a potentially tricky day for the EU if anti-EU far-right candidate Geert Wilders does well. Triggering Article 50 on that day would also dominate the news agenda and could, potentially, influence Dutch voters. The result of the election will trickle in on 16 March, which will be another bad day to trigger Article 50.
• 25 March – This day marks the 60^th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, which laid the foundations of the present-day EU. The heads of state from all EU members, with the exception for now at least the UK, will gather in Rome for a weekend of celebrations.

IS the UK Still a Member of the EU After Article 50 Has Been Triggered?

Yes, the UK will remain a member of the EU for precisely two years from the day the article is triggered. Therefore if Article 50 is triggered on 31 March 2017, then the UK would case to be a member of the EU at the end of the day on 31 March 2019. During this two-year period, the UK will remain bound by EU laws and regulations. It will also be entitled to near-full membership rights, however it must also honour its commitments as a member and those include financial. The only areas in the two-year period where the UK is excluded from EU affairs are when the 27 remaining countries are discussing the UK withdrawal or where they are discussing internal EU business.

Once Article 50 Has Been Triggered, Is there Any Turning Back?

Article 50 does not state whether it is reversible and EU lawyers have never pronounced on the issue.

Will Negotiations Between the UK and the EU Begin As Soon As Article 50 is Triggered?

No. There is a common misconception that in the first week after the triggering of Article 50, the two negotiators – Michel Barnier for the EU and David Davis MP for the UK – will face off across a table and begin negotiating Britain’s exit. It will not work like this for a number of reasons. Firstly, the EU side will need at least two months in order to draw up guidelines. The remaining 27 states will also decide on negotiating topics and re lines, which they will then feed into the EU Council. While the EU has already presented a united front on Brexit, it will quickly become clear that many of the negotiating topics and red lines are unique to individuals states. Subsequently things will become more granular, complicated and divided as the process goes along. It will be up to the European Council’s behind-the-scenes Brexit negotiation, Belgian diplomat Didier Seewus, to co-ordinate with the member countries and try to keep negotiations on track. Secondly, while Mr Barnier is the chief negotiator on behalf of the EU Commission, the negotiations will be carried out by large teams on both sides.

 What if the Withdrawal Process Takes Longer than the Designated Two Years?

 The exit clock to leave the EU effectively begins the moment that Article is triggered. Precisely two years later the UK ceases to be a member of the EU. During that period, the negotiations for the exit must be concluded. However this is an extremely unrealistic timetable to conclude such complicated negotiations and in reality, because of the time taken at the beginning and the end for the process to wind up and wind down the negotiations, the actual negotiating time will probably be only 15 months at best. The two-year Article 50 period can however be extended, and the UK continue to be an EU member, however only if all 27 remaining countries agree to it unanimously.