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Questions Arise Again About Whereabouts of IS Leader

On Monday 17 July, a top Kurdish counter-terrorism official disclosed that he was 99 percent sure that Islamic State (IS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was alive and located south of the Syrian city of Raqqa, despite numerous reports that he had been killed last month.

In an interview with Reuters, Lahur Talabany disclosed, “Baghdadi is definitely alive. He is not dead. We have information that he is alive. We believe 99 percent he is alive,” adding “don’t forget his roots go back to al-Qaeda days in Iraq. He was hiding from security services. He knows what he is doing.”

IS’s secretive leaders has frequently been reported killed or wounded since he climbed up to the pulpit of a mosque in Mosul in 2014 and declared a caliphate with himself the leader of all Muslims. After leading his fighters on a sweep through northern Iraq, Baghdadi attempted to create a self-sustaining modern-day caliphate in parts of Iraq and neighbouring Syria. Talabany notes that “he is not an easy figure. He has years of experience in hiding and getting away from the security services,” adding “the territory they control right now, still to this day, is very tough territory. It is still not the end of the game for ISIL. Even though they have lost almost all of Mosul and they are getting ready to lose Raqqa as well.”

Iraqi security forces have effectively ended three years of IS ruling the Iraqi city of Mosul, and the group is now under increasing pressure in Raqqa – both of which are former strongholds in the militant’s rapidly crumbling caliphate. Talabany notes however that IS is now in the process of shifting tactics, despite low morale, noting that it would take three or four years in order to eliminate the group as it takes to the mountains and deserts to stage hit and run attacks unleash suicide bombers. According to Talabany, “they are getting ready for a different fight I think. We have a lot tougher days ahead of us than people think,” adding “we saw why they were smarter. Al-Qaeda never controlled any territory. They will be smarter.”

In the wake of numerous reports that Baghdadi has been killed, questions have been raised about who might replace him as head of a diverse group that is comprised of Iraqis and other Arabs as well as hard-core foreign fighters. Iraqi intelligence officers, who served under Saddam Hussein, have been described as the military strategists instruments in recreating an IS reign of terror.   Talabany has disclosed that it was hard to know which top Baghdadi aides were alive or dead, noting however that he believes most of the leadership remains in Syria, in an area south of Raqq. Sources have disclosed that a younger generation of Saddams’ former allies are expected to take key positions. What is evident is that security services will now face the daunting challenge of breaking up sleeper cells, typically made up of two facilitators and two operators.

Italy Drafts Contested Code of Conduct for NGO Migrant Boats

An official disclosed last week that the Italian government, which is looking to stem a flow of migrants into the country, has drawn up a draft code of conduct for non-governmental organizations (NGO’s) that operate in the Mediterranean Sea.

Sources have indicated that the 11-point plan is expected to be presented in the coming days to some nine NGO’s who regularly deploy rescue boats to international waters just off the coast of Libya. Amongst the points included in the proposed new rules will be a ban on making phone calls or firing flares that may signal to human traffickers that they could push their migrant boats out to sea. Furthermore, the NGO vessels will also be obliged to let police travel with them to help root out any human traffickers hidden amongst the migrants. Additionally, the boats will no longer be allowed to transfer refuges to other ships, but will instead have to bring them to port themselves, a move that will limit their operations. The code of conduct will also include a categorical ban on NGO’s entering Libyan waters unless human life is clearly in danger. If any group refuses to accept the terms, they risk being barred access to ports in Italy – effectively meaning that they would have to divert to other countries to disembark any migrants.

Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch (HRW), which received a leaked draft of the Italian document, have already warned that the proposals could have a disastrous impact on NGO missions operating in the Mediterranean. According to Iverna McGowan, a senior director with Amnesty International, “attempts to restrict NGO search and rescue operations risk endangering thousands of lives by limiting rescue boats from accessing the perilous waters near Libya.”

According to the latest data, which was released by the Italian Interior Ministry on 12 July, some 85,217 migrants have come to Italy so far this year. In all, more than 600,000 newcomers, the majority from sub-Sahara Africa, have reached Italy over the past four years, with tens of thousands more expected to arrive in the coming months. A small flotilla of charity boats have become increasingly important in rescue operations, with the Italian coastguard reporting that they have picked up more than a third of all migrants brought ashore so far this year, against less than one percent in 2014. Rome however now suspects that their presence just outside Libyan territorial waters encourages migrants to risk their lives and go out to sea. This has been denied by NGO’s, who maintain that thousands more would die if their boats were not present in the southern Mediterranean. Since 2014, more than 13,000 people are estimated to have drowned trying to make the dangerous crossing to Italy.

While viewing the NGO’s with increasing suspicion, the Italian government has also grown frustrated with allies within the European union (EU), stating that they are not doing enough in order to help tackle the crisis, including by taking in many more of the new arrivals. On Wednesday, Italian Prime Minister Palo Gentiloni, who is looking to improve cooperation amongst EU partners, met with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Sources however have indicated that there was no sign of any pledges to help relieve the pressure on Italy. Speaking to reports, Prime Minister Gentiloni stated, “progress has been made regarding migration policy, but it is not yet sufficient.”

Migration Emergency: Along With Italy, Spain Could be Next

The number of migrants arriving on Spain’s southern coast has more than doubled in 2017 compared to last year. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), since the start of 2017, 6,464 migrants crossed the Mediterranean to reach the country, while the total in 2016 was just over 8,000 migrants last year, making up only 2% of the total of so-called “irregular arrivals” to the EU.

The spike in arrivals means the crossing to Spain is now almost as popular as the one to Greece, which was the main entry point to Europe until the EU adopted a returns pact with Turkey.

The increasingly number of accidents occurred lately across the Alboran Sea, which connects northeastern Morocco and southeastern Spain, in the Western Mediterranean are clear evidence of the seriousness of the situation, which could potentially evolve into a new emergency for another European state. Just last week eight boats carrying 380 people were rescued. Only few days after an inflatable dinghy that had apparently set out from Morocco with 52 people aboard was flipped over after being hit by a strong wave. Only three survivors were rescued by the Spanish coastguard in what has been called by the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) “the worst tragedy in the last decade in the Spanish Mediterranean” involving migrants.

Usually calm summer months are particularly popular for crossings the Alboran Sea, but its strong currents are perilous to small craft like dinghies, and a rogue wave or unexpected weather can make the journey a lethal one. As Mikel Araguas, from the Spanish branch of charity SOS Racisme declared: “We are worried because we are seeing numbers which we have not seen in years. And it’s a dangerous area, where the currents are very strong”.

In fact, even before this tragedy, 60 migrants are believed to have drowned in the Western Mediterranean this year. Andalucía human rights charity APDHA estimates that 6,000 people have drowned trying to cross that stretch of water since 1997.

The vast majority of migrants coming to Spain are sub-Saharan Africans fleeing poverty or conflict in their home countries.  Many of those come from West African nations such as Guinea or Ivory Coast. A common route is by land through Mali and Algeria, and then on to Morocco, which at its nearest point is only eight nautical miles from the Spanish mainland. Internal factors within particular countries of origin can also encourage exoduses. For example recent social unrest in northern Morocco’s Rif region has triggered a new migratory tendency.

However, another reason is that word is getting out that the journey through Libya to reach Italian coasts is becoming more risky, with “ever harder controls”, said Helena Maleno Garzon of migrant aid agency Caminando Fronteras.

Many migrants passing through Libya, wracked by chaos since the 2011 toppling of dictator Muammar Gaddafi with rival militias and administrations seeking to control the oil-rich country, have reported dramatic tales of abuse in the country.

Migrants have reported being sold “on a slave market”, according to the IOM. Amnesty International has complained of migrants being tortured and jailed while the UNHCR has published reports by migrants of “appalling” conditions at Libya’s migrant detention centres. European authorities have also at long last begun to crack down on migrant smugglers in the country and aid workers say harder controls on making the crossing will force people further along the coastline.  Adding to the appeal of this route is the fact that the sea crossing is shorter and it costs less. To capitalise on this people smugglers have slashed their prices for the Spain crossing by more than half, down from £1,770 per person last year to just £800 now, with tragic consequences. As a result, some migrants prefer to make their way to Morocco or Algeria and from there cross the Mediterranean to Spain, even though the Italian sea route from Libya remains the most popular for migrants. Italy has accepted around 85,000 of the 100,000 people who have arrived in Europe by sea this year according to the IOM.

The prospect of yet another major front opening up in the Mediterranean is a serious concern for European leaders who are struggling to respond to the unprecedented arrivals in Italy.

Rome has already warned that its reception centres are close to collapse whilst EU capitals bicker over the best way to help the country and bring down the numbers of arrivals in the future. In recent weeks some ministers have significantly toughened their tone, talking openly about sending boats back to North Africa and hugely upping deportations of economic migrants. However no solution appears to be either feasible or easy to apply in the immediate horizon.

Syrian Observatory Announces Confirmation of Death of IS Leader

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights disclosed on Tuesday 11 July that it had “confirmed information” that Islamic State (IS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has been killed. The report comes just days after the Iraq army announced that it had recaptured the last sectors of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, which Baghdadi’s forces overran almost exactly three years ago.

On Tuesday, Rami Abdulahman, the director of the British-based war monitoring group, disclosed, “(we have) confirmed information from leaders, including one of the first rank who is Syrian, in the Islamic State in the eastern countryside of Deir al-Zor.” Abdulrahman further disclosed that activists working with him in Deir al-Zor had been told by IS sources that Baghdadi had died. They however did not state when or how. Sources also indicated that Baghdadi had been present in the astern countryside of Syria’s Deir al-Zor province in the past three months.

Officials in Iraq and in the US however have so far not confirmed the report. In Iraq, US Army Colonel Ryan Dillon, spokesman for the US-led coalition that is fighting IS, stated that he could not confirm the new, while the top US general in Iraq later stated that the coalition had no concrete information. Speaking at a news briefing, Lieutenant General Stephen Townsend disclosed, “despite all the helpful reports to us from every source imaginable, I’m unable to confirm or deny whether he is, or whether he is alive or dead. Let me just say for the record, my fervent hope is it is the latter.” Kurdish and Iraqi officials have so far not commented on the report. In the US, the Pentagon stated that it had no information to corroborate the reports. While Baghdadi’s death has been announced several times before, the Observatory has a record of credible reporting on the Syrian conflict. So far. IS-affiliated websites and social media feeds have not said anything.

In June, Russia’s Defense Ministry disclosed that it might have killed Baghdadi when one of its air strikes hit a gathering of IS commanders on the outskirts of the Syrian city of Raqqa.   While at the time, Russian officials indicated that they were nearly 100% sure that Baghdadi was amongst those killed, authorities in Washington disclosed that they could not corroborate the death. Furthermore, Western and Iraqi officials remained sceptical.

What is clear is that the death of Baghdadi, who declared a caliphate governed by Islamic law from a mosque in Mosul in 2014, would be one of the biggest blows yet to the jihadist group, which is trying to defend rapidly shrinking territory in both Syria and Iraq.

The United States put up a US $25 million reward for his capture, the same amount as it had offered for al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden and his successor Ayman al-Zawahiri. It currently remains unknown if anyone will claim the bounty. IS leaders killed in Iraq and Syria since th US-led coalition began its air strikes include Abu Ali al-Anbar, Baghdadi’s deputy; IS’ “minister of war,” Abu Omar al-Shishani, who was a close military adviser to Baghdadi; and Abu Mohammad al-Adnani, one of the group’s most prominent and longest-serving leaders.

Countries Set to Raise Defense Spending This Year

On 28 June, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that European allies of NATO and Canada will increase their defense spending by 4.3 percent in 2017, effectively marking a cumulative US $46 billion increase since cuts stopped in 2014.

Speaking a day before NATO defense ministers are due to meet in Brussels to discuss greater security expenditure, which US President Donald Trump is pushing for, Stoltenberg disclosed, “to keep our nations safe, we need to keep working to increase defense spending and fairer burden-sharing across our alliance.” Speaking at a news conference, he stated, “after years of decline, in 2015 we saw a real increase in defense spending across European allies and Canada…this year, we foresee an even greater real increase of 4.3 percent.”