Burkina Faso Coup
January 26, 2022 in Uncategorized
During the afternoon hours on Monday 24 January, Burkina Faso’s army ended growing speculation about the events of the previous 24 hours and announced that it had ousted President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré. The army also announced that the country’s constitution had been suspended, that the government was dissolved, that national air and land borders were closed and that a curfew (2100 – 0500) will be in place until a new order. The announcement followed hours of confusion after gunfire erupted at army camps on Sunday night. The former president has not been seen since Sunday and his whereabouts currently remain unknown.
MPSR & Damiba
The military takeover statement was made in the name of a previously unknown entity, the Patriotic Movement for Safeguard and Restoration (MPSR). On Monday, it announced that the “MPSR, which includes all sections of the army, has decided to end President Kaboré’s post today.” It cited the deterioration of the security situation in the country and what it described as Kaboré’s inability to unite the nation and ineffective response to the challenges it faces.
Meanwhile a lieutenant appointed to oversee security in Ouagadougou has emerged as the leader of the military coup. Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba was presented as the president of the MPSR. The 41-year-old Damiba had been promoted in December 2021 by ousted leader Kaboré to commander of Burkina Faso’s third military region in what some viewed as an effort by the president to shore up support within the army. The appointment to the strategic position came in the wake of the November attack on a gendarmerie post in the northern town of Inata, which killed 49 military officers and four civilians. Reports that troops had gone without food rations for two weeks had sparked anti-government protests and calls for Kaboré to step down. In his new post, Damiba proceeded to reorganize the military ranks, appointing new officers to key roles with the declared intent of battling the uprising. While Kaboré has been faulted by the army for the rising rebel violence, Damiba has sought to present himself as an expert in countering terrorism. He studied at a military academy in Paris, France, and obtained a Master’s degree in criminal sciences from the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers. In June, he published a book titled West African Armies and Terrorism: Uncertain Responses? in which he analysed anti-terrorism strategies in the Sahel region and their limits. Between 1987 – 2011, Damiba had been part of the Regiment of Presidential Security (RPS) of former president Blaise Compaore. Once Compaore was overthrown in 2014, after hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets in protest at plans to extend his rule, the unit was dissolved by the transitional government, in a move that caused resentment amongst some officers. Reports indicate that Damiba resigned from the RPS in 2011 following a wave of protests and a violent army mutiny. He was later posted to the north-eastern town of Dori as Commander of the 11th Infantry Commando Regiment (RIC) and to the northern town of Ouahigouya as Commander of the 12th RIC. In 2015, he and other officers took part in an attempted coup that briefly deposed the transitional government. Burkinabé media indicate that Damiba later testified in the trial of conspirators behind the coup. Following the coup in 2015, Damiba left the country to pursue further military studies, though details of his time abroad remain limited. Upon his return, he took the leadership of the 30th RCAS, a regiment tasked with supporting Burkina Faso’s’ counter-terrorism strategy. On 3 December, ousted president Kaboré entrusted Damiba with protecting Ouagadougou from the threats posed by a religious rebellion. There are reports that Monday’s coup began as a mutiny at a military base hosting a prison where some of the key military figures that were involved in the 2015 coup attempt are imprisoned.
Regional & International Reactions
In the wake of this past weekend’s events, the African Union and the West African bloc ECOWAS earlier on Monday both condemned what they called an attempted coup. The United States and the European Union have also called for Kaboré’s “immediate release.” He is currently being held at an army base. On the ground however, more than 1,000 people gathered in the main square (Place de la Nation) in Ouagadougou on Monday to celebrate the coup, with some burning the French flag while others dancing as live music played. The burning of the French flag is the latest sign of the growing frustration about the former colonial power’s military role in the region.
As of Tuesday 25 January, French President Emmanuel Macron has disclosed that the situation in Burkina Faso appears to be calm as he condemned the coup, and said that ousted President Kaboré was in good health and not being threatened. The governing party in Burkina Faso meanwhile has reported that what began as an army mutiny is rapidly evolving into a coup. In a statement on Monday, the People’s Movement for Progress disclosed that President Kaboré and a government minister had survived assassination attempts.
While in its announcement on Monday, the army indicated that a return to democracy would be swift, it remains to be seen in the coming days and weeks what the transitional period will look like. For the moment, ECOWAS has not made any announcements on possible repercussions that those behind the coup could face. However, given the fact that it imposed economic sanctions on Mali and Guinea in the wake of those respective coups, it is likely that similar moves will be made in the coming days.
Current Situation
On Tuesday 25 January, celebratory gatherings occurred in Ouagadougou, with participants gathering in support of the military takeover made on behalf of the Patriotic Movement for Safeguarding and Restoration (MPSR). Despite the latest turmoil, life in Ouagadougou seemed to continue as normal on Tuesday, with the city’s main market, shops and petrol station open. The troop presence appears to be mainly army, with the gendarmerie being less visible. While initially, the ruling military had closed Burkina Faso’s air and land borders, on Tuesday, it announced the resumption of air traffic while reopening land borders for vehicles carrying humanitarian, military and essential goods. As of Tuesday morning, mobile internet appears to have been restored, a move that has been welcomed by the populace. The 2100 – 0500 curfew remains in place until further notice.
Advisory
An increased security presence is likely in the coming hours and days across the country, notably in the capital Ouagadougou. Associated localized transport, commercial and telecommunications disruptions are also likely to persist. Further flight disruptions are likely and officials may suspend international travel and or close borders in response to the latest developments. Checkpoints across Ouagadougou may also be set up. Protests either in support or in opposition to the recent developments could also occur in major cities nationwide. Anyone planning to travel to Burkina Faso is advised to avoid all non-essential travel until the situation stabilizes. In the event that travel is necessary, reconfirm transport services, including flights, before departure. Persons currently in the country are advised to shelter in place and to maintain close contact with their diplomatic representation. Individuals should ensure that they have enough supplies for the next several days and should limit travel both within Ouagadougou and outside of the capital. Avoid government buildings, security installations, large concentrations of police and soldiers, or any protests that may materialize. Heed all instructions by the local authorities – remain courteous and cooperative if approached and questioned by security personnel.
With much of the focus now concentrating on the political situation in Burkina Faso, jihadists groups operating in the country may use this period to launch attacks both in major cities across the country and rural areas as a mechanism to instil further fear amongst the local populations. Attacks could be indiscriminate and could affect Burkinabé security forces, religious sites, restaurants, schools, markets and places frequented by foreigners. Anyone currently in Burkina Faso is advised to maintain heightened vigilance at all times.
Burkina Faso Mutiny (24 Jan 2022)
January 24, 2022 in UncategorizedFour security sources and a West African diplomat reported on Monday 24 January 2022 that Burkina Faso President Roch Kaboré has been detained at a military camp by mutinying soldiers. The security situation in Burkina Faso currently remains fluid with reports that the Burkinabé military will make a statement on the current situation later on Monday. While for the moment, Burkina Faso’s borders remain open, a number of international air lines have cancelled flights for today.
Monday’s events follow heavy gunfire that was reported around the president’s residence on Sunday night in the capital city, Ouagadougou. Sustained gunfire also rang out from military camps across the country, including in Ouagadougou, Kaya and Ouahigouya, throughout Sunday, as soldiers demanded more support for their fight against Islamist militants. While on Sunday, the country’s Minister of Defence denied that the army had seized power, as of Monday afternoon, President Kaboré’s whereabouts remain unclear, with reports indicating that he has been detained and arrested by the mutinying soldiers. Several rumoured vehicles of the presidential fleet, riddled with bullets, could be seen near the president’s residence, with one being spattered with blood. Residents of the neighbourhood have reported that heavy gunfire was heard overnight. Sources report that state television in Burkina Faso is under military control, with soldiers reported to have surrounded the television station in the capital. There has been no live programming as of Monday morning, though it remains on air.
President Kaboré has faced waves of protests in recent months as frustrations amongst the local populations have grown over the frequent attacks and killings of civilians and soldiers by militants with ties to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS) group. A militant attack in November 2021, which targeted a gendarmerie post in Inata, in the northern Soum region, killed 49 military police officers and four civilians. The attack also highlighted the conditions that most soldiers working in Burkina Faso face on a regular basis. Shortly after the attack, it emerged that the forces stationed at the post had run out of food and had been forced to hunt animals in the vicinity for two weeks. On numerous other occasions, soldiers have also complained of a lack of proper equipment and adequate training. In November, in the wake of the attack in Inata and a number of protests, President Kaboré pledged to end “dysfunction” in the army, stating at the time that an inquiry into the Inata attack would be followed by disciplinary measures and that he would launch an anti-corruption drive. On 9 December, he dismissed his prime minister, which by law triggered the resignation of the entire government. However protests continued, with unrest occurring on 22 January. Mutinying soldiers over this past weekend have highlighted their growing frustrations with the Burkinabé government in its failure to adequately equip them. On Saturday, major protests were held in Ouagadougou as the local populations are also increasingly growing frustrated with the ongoing insecurity in the country. On Sunday, protesters also came out to support the mutineers, with some ransacking the headquarters of the president’s political party in Ouagadougou. While the Burkinabé government has denied the military uprisings were part of a coup attempt, officials indicated on 11 January that they had arrested several army personnel, including Lieutenant-Colonel Emmanuel Zoungrana, on suspicion of plotting to destabilize the government.
The latest turmoil in Burkina Faso comes as the wider West African region has seen a string of successful military pushes in the last eighteen months. Coups have been held in Mali (August 2020 and May 2021), and more recently in Guinea, where the army removed President Alpha Condé last September. In Chad, the military also took over after the death of President Idris Déby, who died on the battlefield there. A transitional council continues to be in place in Chad. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has imposed sanctions on Mali over its failure to adhere to the electoral timeline and while it remains unclear what its response will be to the current developments in Burkina Faso, ECOWAS stated on Monday afternoon that it condemned the move and called on soldiers to return to their barracks. It further indicated that it was closely monitoring the situation.
Current Situation
On 24 January, the French Embassy in Burkina Faso issued a security advisory, advising French nationals to limit non-essential daytime travel and to avoid travelling at night across Ouagadougou amidst ongoing mutinies. The embassy further indicated that French schools in the capital will remain closed on 25 January. Additionally, French carrier Air France announced that it would suspend both of its flights scheduled from Paris (CDG) to Ouagadougou on 24 January. Turkish Airlines and Royal Air Maroc have also reportedly suspended their respective scheduled flights from Istanbul and Casablanca on 24 January.
As of Monday afternoon, mutinying soldiers remain stationed in front of the National TV building in Ouagadougou, where the military is expected to make a statement on the current situation in the coming hours. Gatherings have also been taking place at Place de la Nation in Ouagadougou as of Monday morning, with youths gathering to celebrate the mutinies. The rest of the city however has remained relatively quiet, with many services and shops closed for the day and minimal traffic circulating across Ouagadougou.
Gatherings are also reportedly occurring at Place de la Nation in Ouagadougou to celebrate the mutinies. On Monday afternoon, President Kaboré’s official Twitter account posted a statement, saying “our Nation is going through difficult times. At this precise moment, we must safeguard our democratic achievements. I invite those who have taken up arms to lay them down in the Higher Interests of the Nation. It is through dialogue and listening that we must resolve our contradictions. RK.” No further statements have been made by the president or the Burkinabé government. On 23 – 24 January, authorities initially implemented a nationwide 20:00 – 05:00 curfew in response to earlier unrest and mutinies at several military bases across the country. That curfew could be extended in the coming hours and days in response to the latest developments. Earlier on 23 January, authorities suspended mobile internet services. It currently remains unclear when they will be restored.
Advisory
An increased security presence is likely in the coming hours and days across the country, notably in the capital Ouagadougou. Associated localized transport, commercial and telecommunications disruptions are also likely to persist. Further flight disruptions are likely and officials may suspend international travel and or close borders in response to the latest developments. Checkpoints across Ouagadougou may also be set up. Protests either in support or in opposition to the recent developments could also occur in major cities nationwide. Anyone planning to travel to Burkina Faso is advised to avoid all non-essential travel until the situation stabilizes. In the event that travel is necessary, reconfirm transport services, including flights, before departure. Persons currently in the country are advised to shelter in place and to maintain close contact with their diplomatic representation. Individuals should ensure that they have enough supplies for the next several days and should limit travel both within Ouagadougou and outside of the capital. Avoid government buildings, security installations, large concentrations of police and soldiers, or any protests that may materialize. Heed all instructions by the local authorities – remain courteous and cooperative if approached and questioned by security personnel.
With much of the focus now concentrating on the political situation in Burkina Faso, jihadists groups operating in the country may use this period to launch attacks both in major cities across the country and rural areas as a mechanism to instil further fear amongst the local populations. Attacks could be indiscriminate and could affect Burkinabé security forces, religious sites, restaurants, schools, markets and places frequented by foreigners. Anyone currently in Burkina Faso is advised to maintain heightened vigilance at all times.
Chile Elects Gabriel Boric as its New President
January 20, 2022 in UncategorizedOn 19 December, Chile elected its youngest ever president, Gabriel Boric. It was a close contest between Boric and his far-right rival José Antonio Kast, who has been likened to Bolsonaro and openly admires Pinochet, but Boric was victorious with 56% of the vote. Turnout for the election was the highest since compulsory voting ended 9 years ago. Though the election rhetoric was extreme, it is likely that an attitude of cooperation with other parties will characterise Boric’s administration. His victory caps off the rise in support for Chile’s progressive left that has been gaining ground since the 2019 protests that left 30 people dead. It is a continuation of a region-wide trend to favour leftist candidates who aim to ease social inequality; a trend that has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. In July, Peru elected Pedro Castillo. In April, Colombians began demonstrating for several months against tax reform and police brutality. In November, Honduras voted in Xiomara Castro.
Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at Brazil’s Fundacao Getulio Vargas told Bloomberg that “Many point to a new ‘pink tide’ in Latin America after Boric’s victory […] But Chile’s president-elect has very little in common with Castillo in Peru and even less with Venezuela’s authoritarian regime. Boric is a progressive. Castillo and several other iconic left-wing leaders are social conservatives. That may allow Boric to become the face of Latin America’s new left, inspiring other candidates in the region.” There appears to be evidence of these progressive concerns within Gabriel Boric’s policies. He has proposed a green public investment program to target alternative energy and climate adaption, and is interested in improving social care provisions and in advancing feminist causes. Boric wrote in an open letter about the importance of “having a real social security system that doesn’t leave people behind, ending the hateful gap between healthcare for the rich and healthcare for the poor, advancing without hesitation in freedoms and rights for women.” He recognises LGBT rights and the rights of indigenous peoples. He had previously pledged to overhaul Chile’s “neoliberal” economic model but softened his stance on this in the weeks running up to the election in order to win over more centrist voters. This helped him on his way to victory, as he was more successful in winning over these voters who did not support either him or Kast. Supporting the re-write of Chile’s Pinochet-era constitution will also be a priority for Boric.
With the stark choice between left and right the election presented Chileans with, the collapse of centrist parties within the country, and the intense rhetoric that has characterised the campaign, there is concern that Chile’s society could become highly polarized and an environment of divisiveness could emerge. Yet, since Boric’s win, the atmosphere on both sides appears conciliatory and calm. Kast tweeted that he had called Boric to congratulate him on his “great triumph,” adding that “From today he is the elected President of Chile and deserves all our respect and constructive collaboration.” Outgoing President Sebastián Piñera said Chile was living in “an environment of excessive polarisation, confrontation [and] disputes,” and urged his successor to “be the president of all Chileans”.
It is likely that Gabriel Boric will continue with his strategy of pragmatism, looking to breach divides and find common ground on key issues like economic policy. For example, in the weeks leading up to the elections, Boric emphasized fiscal responsibility. He also supports the independence of the Central Bank. José Antonio Kast’s party still has a large presence in parliament and in the senate and so Boric will need to seek their cooperation in order to fulfil his programme. Looking at what Boric’s plans are for foreign policy, he has said he will “give priority to the Pacific Alliance in the future”. Yet, he stresses his immediate priorities are team building in Chile rather than international matters.Gabriel Boric will take office in March 2022, his term ending in 2026.
Myanmar: Stability up in the Air
January 17, 2022 in UncategorizedIn December 2021 and early January the international community witnessed an escalation of the internal conflict in Myanmar. The UN Rights Office recently warned that the Human Rights situation is worsening on an unprecedented scale, and fresh prison sentences against the former leader Aung San Suu Kyi only add fuel to internal divisions. News broke when 30 civilians were killed and burned on Christmas eve in Moso, in the state of Kayah. Other incidents, including the killing of eleven civilians in Salingyi Township, Sagaing region, or the death of a journalist in prison have been only some of the news coming from the country in the last weeks.
The Min Aung Hlaing Administration is far from achieving a complete control of the country. The Myanmar armed forces, or Tatmadaw, have been increasing their fighting against local armed resistance groups across the country, especially in Karen and Kayah states. In Karen, a region bordering Thailand, the rebel group Karen National Union has been stepping up the fight against the military junta. Around midnight on 23 December, the Tatmadaw launched at least two air strikes against the guerrillas. Thai Foreign spokesperson Tanee Sangrat reported that the two air strikes also affected Thais residing on the border between the two countries.
In Sagaing region and Shan state clashes between the military and local resistance groups are being waged on a daily basis. While some ethnic armed groups have offered their support to the local civilian resistance groups, some remain ambivalent. It is unclear the extent to which civilian resistance groups could inflict significant damages to the military. It is expected that the fighting will continue until its main objective of toppling the military regime is achieved. Ethnic guerrillas, around two dozen in the country, could take advantage of the political turmoil to attain greater political leverage and eventually achieve autonomy. According to the Association for Political Prisoners of Myanmar, more than 1,300 people have been killed by the military and almost 8,300 have been arrested or convicted since the coup in February 2021.
Moreover, it is estimated that since December 15, more than 10,000 people have fled Karen, including more than 4,200 who, according to the Thai Foreign Ministry, have already crossed the border. Several non-governmental organizations are asking Bangkok not to close its borders due to the massive arrival of refugees. Apart from violence, civilians are fleeing to neighbouring countries due to the lack of humanitarian aid. The junta is deliberately blocking the provision of humanitarian aid in conflict-ridden states as a form of punishment for the support of the civilian population to resistance groups. The situation is so critical that Myanmar has reached a level of impoverishment not seen since 2005. The strategy of blocking the provision of humanitarian aid is part of the wider strategy that the Tatmadaw has been using for decades: the ‘four cuts’. Even if the Tatmadaw does not use that term anymore, the strategy is definitely the same as that of the four cuts they have used against the ethnic population for more than 70 years, which consists of preventing the guerrillas from accessing food, financing, intelligence information and the possibility of recruitment. To make things worse, aid efforts have faced a number of significant operational challenges including travel and COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. Overall, this situation will further intensify the existing economic, social, and humanitarian crisis in Myanmar.
Apart from the more commonly conflict-ridden areas of the country where ethnic minorities are present, the conflict has spread to urban areas as well. The deterioration of the socioeconomic conditions has cropped up resistance in cities and regions where the ethnic Bamar are a majority. On 5 December five protesters were killed and several dozens were injured during anti-government protests in Yangon after a car initially drove into a group of demonstrators at high speed. Besides, and coinciding with International Human Rights Day on 10 December, thousands of citizens joined the calls of activist groups to stage an unprecedented “silent protest” against the regime. Businesses were closed and people isolated themselves at home across the country to show their rejection of junta violence.
The internal turmoil has been escalated with new prison sentences for the leader of the National League for Democracy party and Myanmar’s former state councillor (head of government) Aung San Suu Kyi. On 6 December she was sentenced to two years in prison for inciting violence and failure to comply with COVID-19 measures. The sentence was initially of four years in prison, but shortly after the ruling was known, the military junta made official a partial pardon that reduced the sentence to 2 years. In addition, on 10 January Suu Kyi was sentenced, in other two processes, to a total of four more years in prison for violating the laws against the pandemic and for the illegal importation and possession of various telecommunications devices. There has been a widespread international rejection for these judicial processes, which have been considered politicized and lacking of judicial guarantees. Suu Kyi could still face nine other charges with accumulated penalties that exceed 100 years in prison.
Given the new escalation of violence by the Tatmadaw the international community has announced a new set of sanctions against the junta. As a response to human rights abuses, the US and other governments such as those of Canada and the United Kingdom have imposed a fresh set of sanctions on dozens of people and entities linked to Myanmar. Moreover, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, urged the imposition of an international arms embargo on the country. The international community is also keeping an eye on ASEAN moves. Cambodia’s Prime Minister, Hun Sen, started in early January an official visit to Myanmar that has been widely criticized by fellow members of ASEAN, especially by Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo, as being a move to legitimate the junta’s actions. Cambodia will chair the presidency of ASEAN in 2022, and the situation in Myanmar is set to increase internal divisions within the organization. The leaders of ASEAN already agreed on a Five-Point consensus plan in April 2021 to tackle the internal crisis in Myanmar, which resulted in an evident fiasco.
The escalation of violence in Myanmar against civilians, as well as the continued persecution of political opponents and journalists has led to new sanctions against the junta. Furthermore, the internal situation in Myanmar has increased tensions in neighbouring countries, since Thailand has seen a significant increase in refugees from Myanmar, and the Cambodian Prime Minister’s state visit has generated tensions among ASEAN members. The following months will be filled with internal uncertainty and external criticisms.
Bosnia Teetering on the Precipice of War
January 14, 2022 in UncategorizedIn 1992, war broke out in Bosnia. Muslim Bosniaks fought against Orthodox Serbs and Catholic Croats. The fall of Yugoslavia left the region in turmoil with each party vying for power and their own plot of land, but Bosnia had a pretty even balance of Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats. In February 1992 the Serb majority in the country decided to boycott a referendum and reject its outcome and instead created their own constitution of the Serbian Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Following Bosnia’s declaration of independence that year, the Bosnian Serbs led by Radovan Karadžić and supported by the Serbian government of Slobodan Milošević mobilised their forces inside Bosnia in order to secure their ethnic territory. In doing so they kicked off a war that would take hundreds of thousands of lives and be characterised by bitter fighting, indiscriminate shelling of towns and cities, war crimes and ethnic cleansing.
The scars of the war 30 years ago still run deep in the region today, but yet again teeters on the edge of a cliff that could see the Bosnia return to war. Milorad Dodik in the Serb Bosnian dominated Republika Srpska has been vying for more autonomy for his people for years. He wants to abandon Bosnia’s institutions, the security forces, the judiciary system and the tax system, in doing so he would be leaving the region on high alert. At the start of December he led a vote at the parliament for the Republika Srpska in which 48 out of a possible 83 seats in parliament voted to withdrawe from the institutions.
Dodik said that the vote was “the moment of conquering the freedom for Republika Srpska” and that “Bosnia is an experiment… I don’t believe it can survive because it does not have the internal capacity to survive.” Now the vote has been passed the regional government should now draft new laws on the military, judiciary system and tax system to replace state laws. Dodik also wants to roll back on all reforms made after the war and return to the 1995 constitution under which the state was represented by basic institutions only while all powers had belonged to the regions.
In a joint statement, the embassies of the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy as well as an EU delegation said that the parliamentary motion was a “Further escalation”. More recently the US has imposed sanctions on Dodik for corruption and threatening the stability and integrity of Bosnia.
However, the motion continues to threaten the region’s delicate peace. In the days around the Orthodox Christmas, nationalists, encouraged by their leader’s rhetoric, provoked Muslim neighbourhoods, shot guns near mosques during prayers and sang nationalist songs glorifying convicted war criminals during street parades. Some days later, Bosnian Serbs celebrated the day in 1992 when they declared their independence, triggering the Bosnian War, with a parade of armed police forces in direct defiance of a court ban and the US sanctions. Dodik has been using racial slurs against Muslim Bosniaks, degrading them to a religious group without ethnic identity and ascribing them the “colonial mentality”. All of which only adds fuel to an already deteriorating situation in the country as ethnic lines grow further apart once again.
Dodik has dismissed the threat of the EU and US sanctions claiming that he has spoken with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin who offers his help. With the EU sanctions, Dodik has suggested they only push him closer to China and its investments claiming that, like Putin, China’s President Xi Jinping is all but happy to help. Dodik claims he was not elected “to be a coward” and with the backing of Russia and China, we could see him further stretch his secessionist motions. Along with close ties to Serbia itself, Dodik feels he has some powerful allies behind whom he can shelter against these sanctions and further his movements towards an independent Serb state in Bosnia.
If secession does happen, Dodik will have both Russia and Serbia to call in for immediate help. Serbia itself has very close ties with Russia and they continue to do arms deals with the most recent being a shipment of 9M133 Kornet anti-tank missiles with more to come later in the year. Last year in November Serbia procured 30 T-72MS tanks and 30 BRDM-2MS armoured personnel carriers. From 2018 to 2020, Russia donated four Mi-35M helicopters, six MiG-29 fighter jets, 10 BRDM-2 amphibious armoured scout cars, three Mi-17V-5 transport helicopters, and Pantsir-S1 air-defence missile-gun system to Serbia as military technical assistance.
Serbia has also been accused, on various occasions, of attempting to destabilise the region, especially with attempts towards neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina. Should war break out in Bosnia, Serbia, with the backing of Russia, would be perfectly placed to aid Dodik in securing Serb lands. The last thing the EU or the US wants is for there to be another blood-filled war in Europe, and so Dodik currently has a choice; continue with his secession attempts with the threat of war increasingly likely and intervention from the EU and US in which, like the first time, thousands might die, or attempt to work with the EU and the Bosnian government to find a peaceful resolution to the situation. Either way, Dodik has expressed his desire to show his strength, and with many remembering the violence of the first Bosnian War, tensions are as high as they have ever been.
