MS Risk Blog

Despite Ongoing Military Operations, Clashes Continue to Occur in Northern Nigeria

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Despite a nearly three-month-old state of emergency, which was declared in three states in northern Nigeria, the country has seen an increase in attacks as Boko Haram militants and their supporters continue their attempts to carve out an Islamic State.  In the latest incidents to rock the northern regions of the country, at least thirty-five people have been killed in two attacks that were carried out by militants.  Meanwhile on Tuesday, gunfire and explosions shook one northeastern Nigerian town while soldiers established a round-the-clock curfew on another region in light of a wave of insurgent clashes.

Clashes broke out in the town of Gamboru Ngala, which is located near the border with Cameroon, on Monday night and continued into Tuesday.  Due to minimal communications, the military has not yet commented on the situation and details pertaining to the clashes remain unclear.  Meanwhile in the city of Potiskum, a round-the-clock curfew has been imposed on the city as soldiers carried out house-to-house searches.  Local residents have reported that soldiers were conducting house-to-house searches in two neighborhoods in a bid to locate high-profile Boko Haram members.  Although the military has not provided any details as to the sudden imposed curfew, the security operation comes ahead of the Muslim Eid al-Fitr holiday which follows the holy month of Ramadan.  There are currently no indications of how long the curfew will remain in place however the country will be celebrating Eid al-Fitr on Thursday and Friday.    The situations in the two towns do not appear to be linked as they are located hundreds of kilometers apart.  The recent clashes and military operation come in the wake of fighting which occurred on Sunday in two other northeastern towns, in which at least thirty-five people have been killed.

A military statement released by officials indicates that thirty-two militants, along with two soldiers and one police officer, died during assaults that were carried out on a police station and military base on Sunday.  Military spokesman Sagir Musa has indicated that “troops have successfully repelled Boko Haram terrorist attacks on a police base in Bama…on 4 August.”  He also noted that a military base in the town of Malam Fatori was also attacked, triggering a gun battle.  The military has also stated that “sophisticated weapons” and explosives were used in the attacks.  Although the attacks had occurred on Sunday, news of the incidents emerged days later as communications with the region have been difficult since the state of emergency was declared on May 14.

Bombing Kills Eight in the Philippines

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The death toll from a bombing in the Philippines yesterday has risen to eight overnight. The blast occurred yesterday afternoon on the southern island of Mindanao which has in the past been plagued by Islamic terrorism and continues to suffer from an extremely poor security situation.

Reports indicate a vehicle was rigged to explode on Sinsuat Avenue, a busy road in Cotabato city, and that the detonation occurred during the Monday afternoon rush. The apparent target of the blast was Cynthia Guiani-Sayadi, a city administrative official and the younger sister of Cotabato’s mayor, Japal Guiani. She had reportedly received numerous threats in recent days.

The bomb exploded as her bulletproof vehicle was passing by when Guiani-Sayadi was on her way to visit victims of recent flooding. She was hurt and has been discharged from hospital, but one of her police bodyguards and 7 bystanders were killed. 33 people were injured, of whom 13 remain in hospital, some in a serious condition. The blast also damaged telephone and power cables, causing power outages in nearby areas. Some government statements suggest they have identified possible perpetrators from witnesses, but other sources have resisted speculation as to the identity and motives of the attackers.

The attack comes amidst a heavy security presence in in the area for the upcoming Eid celebrations in the city. Intelligence, police and military units across the Philippines, including in Manila, have now reportedly been alerted to the possibility of future attacks.  It is the second bombing in recent weeks, as another attack on July 26th in an upscale entertainment district in Cagayan de Oro killed eight and wounded 40. The perpetrators of that attack currently remain unidentified, and it is unknown as of yet if there is a connection with yesterday’s incident.

Cotabato city is the capital of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), though the ARMM does not actually have jurisdiction over the city itself. The ARMM is comprised of provinces that are predominantly Muslim, and has a high level of self-governance and autonomy. For several decades, there was separatist violence in the province led by the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). Successive negotiations led to the signing of a peace deal with the government in 1996.

However a complete solution to separatist violence in the southern Philippines has continued to prove elusive, particularly in the face of extreme fragmentation amongst terrorist organisations within Mindanao. The MNLF’s splinter groups include Abu Sayyaf, a jihadist terrorist organisation, and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). The MILF is seemingly approaching a final peace deal with the government of the Philippines following a preliminary agreement in October last year and six days of talks this July. Some commentators have attributed yesterday’s bombing to a MILF splinter group unhappy with any deal short of independence, known as the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, though official confirmation of their involvement is unavailable as yet.

The complex security situation in the southern Philippines poses a serious danger for visitors, and an extremely high degree of security awareness should be maintained. Public transport links are particularly vulnerable and should not be used, however attacks could be indiscriminate and target places frequented by foreigners. Outside of terrorist activity, incidents of kidnapping and gun crime also remain very high. All but essential travel to Mindanao, and all travel to the ARRM, should be avoided.

Interpol Issues Global Security Alert while the US Extends Embassy Closures

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Interpol has issued a global security alert linked to a suspected al-Qaeda involvement in a string of recent prison outbreaks that have taken place in Iraq, Libya and Pakistan.  The alert comes just days after the United States State Department issued a global travel alert and closed a number of Embassies because of fears of an unspecified al-Qaeda attack.

Citing prison breaks in three countries, Interpol has requested that its members examine whether or not al-Qaeda militants were behind the prison breaks.  The police agency is also asking that member countries “swiftly process any information linked to these events.”  In a statement that was released on Saturday, the French-based agency stated that “with suspected al-Qaeda involvement in several of the breakouts which led to the escape of hundreds of terrorists and other criminals, the Interpol alert requests the organizations 190 member countries‘ assistance in order to determine whether any of these recent events re coordinated or linked.”  It also calls for Interpol to be informed “if any escaped terrorist is located or intelligence developed which could help prevent another terrorist attack.”  The most recent escape occurred in north-west Pakistan, in which 248 prisoners escaped from a jail.  On 30 July, Taliban militants used automatic weapons and bombs in order to break down the walls of the jail in Dera Ismail Khan.  At least thirteen people, including six police officers, were killed during the attack.  Authorities have since indicated that thirty of those who fled were “hardened militants” who were jailed for their involvement in a number of suicide bombings and other serious attacks.  Meanwhile on 22 July, hundreds of inmates escaped from two jails in Iraq:  Abu Ghraib, located to the west of Baghdad; and Taji, located to the north.  Bombs and mortar fire were used to break into those two prisons in which al-Qaeda members were amongst those being housed in the facility.

US Extends Embassy Closure

Meanwhile the United States has announced that it will keep a number of embassies in northern Africa and in the Middle East closed until Saturday, due to a possible militant threat.  After an announcement on Friday pertaining to a possible threat, twenty-one US embassies were closed on Sunday.  On Monday, the State Department in Washington indicated that the extension of closures were “out of abundance of caution,” and not in reaction to a new threat.  With the State Department announcing that the potential for an al-Qaeda-inspired attack being particularly strong in the Middle East and North Africa, the global travel alert will be in force until the end of August.  Although US diplomatic missions in Algiers, Kabul and Baghdad remained open on Monday, its diplomatic posts in Abu Dhabi, Amman, Cairo, Riyadh, Dhahran, Jeddah, Doha, Dubai, Kuwait, Manama, Muscat, Sanaa and Tripoli will remain closed until Saturday.  African missions including Antananarivo, Bujumbura, Djibouti, Khartoum, Kigali, and Port Louis are also on the list of closures.  The US embassy in Tel Aviv, along with two consulates in Jerusalem and Haifa, were also closed on Sunday.

It is evident that security at US diplomatic facilities remains a concern following last year’s attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, Libya, where the US ambassador, along with three other Americans, were killed.  Officials in the United Kingdom also announced over the weekend that its embassy in Yemen would remain closed until the Muslim festival of Eid which will occur on Thursday.  The UK Foreign Office is also advising against all travel to Yemen and is strongly urging British nationals in the country to leave.  Several other European countries have also temporarily closed their missions in Yemen.

The embassy closures and US global travel alert came after the US reportedly intercepted al-Qaeda messages suggesting that they were between senior figures within the militant group who were plotting an attack against an embassy.  While the details of the threat have remained unspecified, it is evident that those members of Congress who have been briefed on the intelligence, seem to agree that it amounts to one of the most serious in recent years, effectively pointing to the possibility of a major attack which may coincide with the end of the holy month of Ramadan, which ends this week.

In recent years, al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen, which is known as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), has attempted to carry out several high profile attacks, including one on Christmas Day in 2009 in which a man attempted to blow up a trans-Atlantic jet over Detroit, using explosives that were sewn into his underwear.  Months earlier, the militant group had also attempted to assassinate the Saudi intelligence chief by using a bomb that was attached to the attacker’s body.     

Mali Set For A Second Round of Elections

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Mali’s interim government announced on Friday that the country’s presidential elections will go to a second round, which has been scheduled for August 11, after no candidates succeeded in securing a majority in the landmark polls.

Figures for Sunday’s ballot, which were announced on live television, indicated that former Prime Minister Ibrahim Boubacar Keita came in first in Mali’s presidential elections, gaining 39.2 percent of the vote, however he will face his main rival, ex-Finance Minister Soumalia Cisse, who attained 19.4 percent of the vote, after he failed to secure an outright majority.  The results, which were announced by Territorial Administration Minister Moussa Sinko Coulibaly, are provisional and need to be confirmed by the West African nation’s Constitutional Court.  No candidate gained the fifty percent of the vote that is necessary in order to declare a victory.  Dramane Dembele, the candidate for Mali’s largest political party, the Alliance for Democracy in Mali, polled just 9.6 percent, taking third place.  Twenty-four other presidential candidates also took part in the polls.  It is widely believed that Mr. Dembele’s votes, along with those of fourth placed candidate Modibo Sidibe, which amount to a total of 14.5 percent, are likely to be transferred to Cisse in the run-off.

The announcement of a run-off will likely ease tensions which have risen since partial results earlier in the week gave Mr. Keita a large lead, indicating that he may win outright.  Although Sunday’s voting was carried out in a peaceful manner, and has been praised by observer missions, Mr. Cisse’s party on Wednesday has announced that the elections had been marred by what it termed as “ballot stuffing,” a form of electoral fraud in which people submit multiple ballots during a vote in which only one ballot per person is allowed.  Critics have argued that Mali, which was under pressure from the international community, may have rushed into the polls and risked mishandling the elections which would result in more harm than good.  However the country has been praised by the international community for running a transparent, credible and peaceful election.  In response to Wednesday’s allegations, acting President Dioncounda Traore and United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon have acknowledged that the vote may be “imperfect” in a country were 500,000 citizens continue to be displaced by a military coup that was launched in March 2012.  They have however urged Malians to respect the outcome.

Despite heavy security during voting, after the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa, one of the main armed groups in northern Mali, announced that it would “strike polling stations more than 3.5 million Malians cast their ballot, resulting in a 51.5 percent turnout which eclipsed its next best of 38 percent.  The turnout was also higher than the United States has managed in three of its presidential elections since 1984.  This high turnout has in effect demonstrated that Malians are ready to get back to the democratic government that was present prior to a military coup which led to armed Islamist militants taking over the northern regions of the country.

Considerations on Yemen’s National Dialogue Conference

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Yemen began the process of the National Dialogue Conference (NDC) in March to address the issues that have divided the nation in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. The dialogue brings together 565 representatives from various groups across Yemen. Each delegate’s votes and ideas are meant to carry equal weight, regardless of age, gender, background, or social status. By autumn, participants will detail a list of grievances, and suggestions for reform. The group will work together to develop conceptual ideas for a new constitution and system of governance. Of the many nations that have undergone a version of the Arab Spring, Yemen is the only country to enact such a dialogue. However, the NDC has been accused of being Utopian in its endeavours, as Yemen is facing deep issues that stem from decades long grievances. In order for it to be effective, the National Dialogue needs to address several dissimilar issues, and unite them into the definitive goal.

HUMANITARIAN CRISIS

Yemen is one of the poorest countries in the Arab world, due to a combination of factors including: declining oil resources, crippled economy due to political climate, and the lack of potable water for livestock and agriculture. Yemen’s economy is dependent on foreign aid and remittance from Yemenis who are employed in other parts of the Arabian Peninsula. The majority of the nation survives on under $2 USD per day.

A report released in July by the UN World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that 5 million Yemenis, over one fifth of the population, are suffering from severe hunger and an additional 5 million don’t have sufficient access to food. More than half of Yemen’s population does not have access to clean water and sanitation, and 6 million lack access to basic health care, including life-saving reproductive health services

WATER DEPENDENCE

According to a prominent Yemeni newspaper, Al-Thawra, nearly 80 percent of conflicts in Yemen’s rural regions are water-related. Water- and land-related disputes result in about 4,000 deaths nationwide each year. An estimated 13.1 million Yemenis do not have access to proper drinking water.

Decaying dams cause the loss of precious water, and wells for groundwater are contaminated by sewage. In 2011, water consumption from the Sana’a Basin was five times more than the natural rate of recharge. It is estimated that in a little more than 10 years, Sana’a will be the world’s first capital to run out of water. Yemeni officials have considered relocating the capital to the coast, or enacting desalination and conservation projects, and siphoning water from other source, but each option either delays the inevitable, or brings its own set of problems.

QAT PRODUCTION

Further complicating the water crisis is the national addiction to qat (or khat). Qat, a narcotic and a mild stimulant, comes from a flowering plant which is native to the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. It is a natural appetite suppressant, often chewed in place of meals. Due to its shelf life of only 48 hours, qat was not readily available on the market in Yemen until the 1970s when better roads were created which eased transport of the crop. Today, it features prominently in Yemeni culture. According to the World Health Organization, up to 90 percent of adult men in Yemen chew qat for three to four hours each day.

However, qat cultivation is extremely water-intensive, drawing as much as 40% of the water from the Sana’a Basin. Currently, qat production is also expanding at a rate of 12% per year, displacing vital crops and sending food prices soaring.

ECONOMIC INSTABILITY

Yemen’s economic concerns existed at the outset of unification, as both parts of Yemen had underdeveloped economies. In the north, severe droughts had long-lasting damaging effects on the agricultural sector, particularly coffee crops— the nation’s main import. Shortly after uniting, and due Yemen’s support of Iraq during the Persian Gulf War, nearly a million Yemenis were expelled from Saudi Arabia, cutting remittance that the nation relied heavily on. Both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait also drastically reduced economic aid.

Today, Yemen’s economy remains weak. The nation’s employment rate is roughly 35%, and a population boom with a growing youth sector searching for work continues to have detrimental impact on the economy. GDP has been declining at a rate of 10% per year since 2011. Yemen has also dealt with rapid inflation rates; in 1990, $1 US was equal to 11.70 Yemeni Rial. Today, one dollar equals 214.90 Yemeni Rial.

Yemen is predominantly agrarian, and suffers from dwindling natural resources. The economy depends heavily on the oil reserves in the south, but those reserves are expected to be depleted by 2017. This loss of oil could result in devastating economic collapse.

SECESSIONIST MOVEMENT

Apart from natural resources and economic weakness, the National Dialogue must also deal with a country divided. At the outset, representatives from South Yemen chose to abstain from attending the dialogue, as it does not address the secessionist movement. A delegate from the NDC was quoted as saying, “There are two Yemens: the Yemen inside the conference and the Yemen outside it.”

North and South Yemen were united in 1990. Following unification, residents in South Yemen felt economically and socially marginalised from the north. In May 1994, the country burst into a crippling civil war which would last for nearly three months, and kill 5,000 people. The North ultimately won the war, however in the aftermath, thousands of southern military and civil employees were forced into early retirement and given pensions below the sustenance level.

Residents of South Yemen continued to feel excluded from Yemeni society and governance. As the years progressed, the South Yemeni’s feeling of resentment and cultural distinction has continued to grow. In 2007, a group called the South Yemen Movement began calling for the re-establishment of an independent southern state. The South Yemen Insurgency embarked on a series of violent attacks aimed at seceding from North Yemen.  In 2011, the Arab Spring became an opening for groups in the south to reassert their desire for federalism or separation.

In March, parties who advocated separating from the North announced their boycott of the NDC. Also boycotting are those who support federalism in a united Yemen. On 18 March, the opening day of the conference, a million-man demonstration took place in Aden calling for an honest dialogue. The demonstration’s motto: “The Decision Is Ours.”

TERRORISM, KIDNAPPING AND RADICALISED GROUPS

In 2006, 23 members of al-Qaeda escaped from prison in Sanaa. The group, calling themselves “al-Qaeda in Yemen” became the forerunners of the larger and more infamous terrorist organisation, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, (AQAP). The group surfaced following an announcement that Yemeni and Saudi terrorists were unifying under a common banner, and they intended to create a hug for hub for regional terrorism. AQAP soon became the most aggressive arm of al-Qaeda, and the most widely known terrorist organization in Yemen. The group is based in tribal areas outside of Sanaa, which for the most part remain largely outside the control of the Yemeni Government.

The US has been working with Yemen to fight al-Qaeda. On 28 July, a US drone strike hit two vehicles belonging to al-Qaeda militants. Six people were killed, three of whom were al-Qaeda militants. The strikes stir feelings of resentment in the Yemenis: although the US is conducting drone strikes to eradicate the terrorist group, the number of drone strikes has escalated. In 2011, the US conducted 18 strikes; in 2012 there were 53. While civilians were not targeted in the strikes, residents in the area have been killed, or had their home or land destroyed. The result is resentment toward not only the United States, but the Yemeni government, who citizens feel should prevent the strikes.

Al Qaeda-linked militants, as well as disgruntled tribesmen, have also been responsible for hundreds of kidnappings. In May, three members of the Red Cross were abducted, including a Swiss national.  In June, gunmen abducted a Dutch couple, as well as two South Africans in the southern city of Taiz. On 21 July, al-Qaeda militants abducted Iranian diplomat Nour Ahmad Nikbakht in Sana’a. Hostages are sometimes taken as a bartering chip to release friends relatives, or  demand improvement of public services. However, in more malicious attacks, the hostages are taken in order to make a political statement (particularly if the hostage is from the West), or demand a ransom.

CONCLUSION

The Yemeni National Dialogue has been applauded for being the first initiative to address Yemen’s needs with representatives from throughout the Yemeni diaspora. The nation has been applauded for the unique path that it has chosen to address deep-rooted issues in the hopes of developing a new constitution and preparing for elections in 2014.

It is imperative that Yemen, which is dealing with 20 hour blackouts, food and water shortages, economic instability, secessionists and terrorism, identify and address the impact that each issue subsequently has on the next. Political transition will be neither permanent nor widely accepted until the nation grapples with the humanitarian crisis. While the dialogue addresses national concerns, participants should be wary of neglecting the opinions of those who boycotted, particularly in the South lest they risk the ire of terrorist organizations or militant secessionists who anticipate being further marginalised.

However, hopes remain high within Yemen, as political figures and laypersons, for the first time, have equal footing in developing Yemen’s future.