MS Risk Blog

Warnings Issued in Africa as Threat of World Cup Attacks Increases Across the Continent

Posted on in Africa, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia, Uganda title_rule

As the FIFA World Cup football tournament kicks off in Brazil, security warnings have been issued for a number of African countries, including Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda. UK officials have also issued warnings for Djibouti, stating that they have credible intelligence that al-Shabaab insurgents may be planning to carry out further terrorist attacks against targets that include “Western interests.”

East African nations are currently on high alert over fears that Somalia’s al-Shabaab may launch attacks on World Cup screenings over the next month. Previous attacks throughout the region have targeted places where football matches are being viewed. Crowded areas, including hotels, restaurants and bars and transport hubs are possible targets.

Ethiopia

There is currently a high threat from terrorism throughout Ethiopia. Attacks could be indiscriminate and can occur at any moment, including in places that are frequented by foreigners. Previous terrorist attacks in the region have targeted places where football matches are being viewed.

Kenya

There is a high threat from terrorism in Kenya, mainly from al-Shabaab. The militant group has issued public threats against Kenya, due to the country’s military intervention in Somalia, and has recently stated that they are shifting the war and will now focus on Kenya. There have been a number of small-scale grenade, bomb and armed attacks in Nairobi, especially in the Eastleigh district, Mombasa and Northern Eastern Province. Methods of attacks have included shootings and bombings, including car bombings, as well as the use of grenades.

Kenyan police chief David Kimaiyo has promised “sufficient security measures” to ensure the safety of fans, however he has noted that bar owners must take their own precautions, stating, “owners of such social places must ensure that every person is thoroughly screened before entering their premises.” Attacks could be indiscriminate and will likely occur in places that are frequented by foreigners, including bars, sports bars, restaurants, hotels, nightclubs, sporting events, supermarkets, shopping centres, beaches, buses, trains and transport hubs.

Uganda

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, whose country is a key contributor to African Union (AU) forces fighting al-Shabaab in Somalia, has cautioned fans “to be alert as they enjoy football, bearing in mind that the country is threatened.” A statement issued by Ugandan security forces has urged that people are screened prior to viewing soccer tournaments. The move is being enforced in a bid to avoid a repeat of attacks that occurred four years ago during the World Cup final, when al-Shabaab militants bombed two restaurants in the Ugandan capital, killing at least seventy-six people.

Djibouti

Officials in Britain warned earlier this week that al-Shabaab insurgents are planning further attacks in Djibouti, after last month’s suicide bomb attack on a crowded restaurant. According to a statement released by the UK Foreign Office, “there are credible reports that al-Shabaab plan, and have the capability, to attack targets in Djibouti, including western interests,” adding “there is a high threat from terrorism” in the port city. The statement further notes “Djibouti and Western interests within Djibouti may be seen as a legitimate target by al-Shabaab because of its support to the Somali government and its participation in the African Union peacekeeping mission.”

Djibouti has troops deployed in Somalia, as part of the African Union force that is battling the militant group, however the Horn of Africa nation’s port also serves as a key base for ships taking part in international anti-piracy operations off the coast of Somalia. Last month, at least one person was killed and several others wounded when two suicide bombers blew themselves up in a restaurant, the first attack in Djibouti to be claimed by al-Shabaab since the country joined the AU force in 2011. Days after the attack, al-Shabaab claimed responsibility and indicated that the attack was carried out in retaliation for Djibouti’s hosting of the United States’ largest military base in Africa, which is used for operations across the region, including drone strikes against Islamists in Somalia. France also has a base in Djibouti.

Nigeria

Nigerian officials have taken additional steps in order to prevent any World Cup related terrorist attacks from occurring. Soldiers in the capital of Yola, Adamawa state, have shut down all venues preparing to screen live World Cup matches in the hopes to stave off attacks. The Nigerian government has also advised resident of the capital city, Abuja, to avoid public viewing centres.  Minister Bela Mohamed has issued a directive for Abuja, ordering high vigilance in places such as motor parks, restaurants, markets, supermarkets, shopping malls, banks, churches, mosques, hotels, viewing centres and hospital.

While over the past five years, the states of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa have seen a number of deadly terrorist attacks, in recent months, Boko Haram militants have carried out an increasingly bold series of assaults, which has included the kidnapping of more than 200 schoolgirls in April. Since then, the militants have carried out a number of attacks on villages, including a recent car bomb that was set of at a centre in the settlement of Gavan, in the north-eastern state of Adamawa. O June 1, at least eighteen people watching a game on television were killed. A week before that incident, a suicide bomber set out for an open-air screening of a match in Nigeria’s central city of Jos. His car blew upon the way, killing three people. Such assaults on television viewing centres across Africa have raised fears that militant groups will target supporters gathering to cheer on the global football contest.

 

 

And We’re Off!!!

Posted on in 2014 FIFA World Cup - Security Update title_rule

As predicted, the most controversial issues in Brazil were on the pitch, and for England in Manaus, the pitch itself!  Last night’s match in Sao Paulo did see some small scale activity by protestors, and even included an injury (potentially), you can watch the clip here:
CNN crew hurt in World Cup protests http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/sports/2014/06/12/cnni-darlington-world-cup-protest-skirmish.cnn.html
You’ll note in the report, the reporter is 11km away from the stadium attending a protest (mistake #1), standing within metres of riot police (mistake #2), and has protective equipment she’s not wearing (mistake #3).  As noted in yesterday’s post, security services will be out in force and will be quick to respond to violence in order to make the tournament enjoyable for those who wish to enjoy it.  We suggest avoiding hotspots, keeping a close eye on crowd dynamics and walking away at the first sign of trouble.
Today’s fixtures are in Natal, Salvador, and Cuiaba.  None of these city’s are known for violent uprisings however, both Salvador and Cuiaba have the dubious honour making a UN list of the 50 most violent cities (by murder rate). There are also 5 American cities on the list and no one is changing there plans to visit New Orleans because it’s ranking. Expect to see similar security presence around venues today with police cordons preventing potential protestors from interfering in events and keeping them away from spectators.
Remember to familiarise yourself with the area you’re staying, routes to and from matches, and have emergency numbers in your phone. It’s is also advised know some basic Portuguese phrases to ask for directions or help when required.

ISIL Captures Major Cities in Iraq

Posted on in Iraq title_rule

12 June – Fighters of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), in their southward offensive, have captured the Iraqi cities of Bayji, which has Iraq’s largest oil refinery, and Tikrit, the provincial capital of Salahaddin. It is reported the militants met with little resistance. Overnight, ISIS units travelling in a convoy of more than 60 vehicles advanced into Bayji, torching several government buildings, court houses, and police headquarters. The fighters surrounded the oil refinery and sent in a delegation to security forces that were holding out in the complex.  Reportedly, the 250 security personnel agreed to withdraw from the refinery complex.

Shortly after seizing Bayji, ISIS fighters took control of Tikrit, famously the home town of former dictator Saddam Hussein. According to Samarra Al-Gharbiyah News, the government centre was overrun by ISIS fighters and provincial governor Ahmad Abdallah is reported to have been captured.

Overnight, television footage also showed ISIL fighters patrolling streets in Duluiyah, only 60 miles north of Baghdad. There currently appears to be few Iraqi forces between ISIL and Baghdad. Considering ISIL’s speed of advancement, it is possible that some militants are already in the capital.

On 11 June, an Iraqi interior ministry official announced that the city of Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, “is outside the control of the state and at the mercy of the militants.” The announcement comes after five days of clashes between ISIL militants and government forces. A brigadier general stated that military units eventually withdrew to the western part of Mosul and began to leave the city, essentially giving control to the militants, who seized the provincial government buildings, banks and airport. The group has raised the black flag of jihad and announced they had ‘come to liberate Mosul and would fight only those who attack them.’ The group also freed as many as 2,500 militant prisoners from three prisons in the region. It is estimated that at least 500,000 residents have fled the city.

The capture of Mosul, according to some analysts, indicates that Iraq has re-entered civil war. ISIL has developed an effective organisation and has essentially fragmented the country.

The advance from Mosul to Tikrit covered nearly 250 miles over a few days. Reports consistent with the Iraqi brigadier general indicate that Iraqi security forces along ISIL’s path either fled after initial skirmishes, or abandoned their posts prior to ISIL’s arrival, leaving behind vehicles, weapons and uniforms. Several army commanders also reportedly fled to Kurdish-controlled areas. The speed and scope of the operation indicates that thousands of ISIS fighters have participated in the recent engagements.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has declared a state of high alert in Iraq and asked parliament to declare a national state of emergency. He has called on “all international organizations to support Iraq and its stance in fighting terrorism.” Maliki calls the collapse of army units a “conspiracy” by Shiite co-religionists; some analysts believe that Maliki bears the brunt of responsibility to the sectarian makeup of the military, and a lack of discipline and solid military doctrine. In a televised address, Maliki said he will form an army of “volunteers” to support the regular government forces in areas seized by ISIS.

ISIL now controls Fallujah and Mosul, which are two major cities in the Sunni region of Iraq, and effectively have control of nearly one third of the country. It has been suggested that Sunni Arab tribal leaders of Nineveh and Anbar Governorates have been cooperating with ISIL, in part because of the discriminatory treatment of Sunni Muslims by the al Malaki government.  However ISIL may meet difficulty should they attempt to gain control of Shiite dominated sectors of Iraq. If ISIL attempts to capture government buildings in Baghdad, it is possible that the heaviest of fighting will ensue, with a probability of high casualties.

ISIL, once an affiliate of the al Qaeda network, has a goal of creating an Islamic emirate that unites Iraq and Syria. However in February, al Qaeda “disowned the group” after ISIL’s refusal to stop fighting with AQ affiliated al Nusrah Front in Syria.

World Cup Travel Advisory: Cuiaba, Natal and Salvador

Posted on in 2014 FIFA World Cup - Security Update title_rule

Cuiabá

City Description

Cuiabá is the capital city of the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso. It is located in the western region of the country and, along with the neighboring town of Várzea Grande, it forms the metropolitan area of the state.

Security

Both the crime and homicide rates in Cuiabá are high. MS Risk therefore advises all travellers to the city to remain vigilant at all times.

Transportation

International Airport

Marechal Rondon International Airport connects Cuiabá with many Brazilian cities. The airport also operates some international flights. The airport is composed of one building, which is divided into two sections: upstairs and downstairs. The downstairs includes all the check-in terminals while the upstairs includes shops, eateries and an observation lounge.

High Ways

Cuiabá is connected by Pacific Ocean with the Interoceanic Highway, and to the Atlantic Ocean by the BR-364 Highway.

Light Rail

The system of 22 kilometers (14 miles) of the Cuiabá’s light rail connects the city with Várzea Grande in the Cuiabá metropolitan area and the international airport.

Natal

City Description

Natal is the capital and largest city of Rio Grande do Norte, a northeastern state in Brazil.

Security 

While the city of Natal was once safe, recent statistics have indicated that crime is on the rise, however it Natal is safer than other touristic cities in the northeast of Brazil, including Fortaleza, Recife and Salvador.

While pickpocketing is common, violent assaults in the city are rare.

If visiting the Forte dos Reis Magos, MS Risk recommends that you travel by taxi and avoid walking along the Praia Forte. This is due to a recent surge in assaults and robberies that have targeted tourists along the beach. Ponta Negra beach is also not secure, with armed assaults on the beach occurring at any time, including day and night.

MS Risk advises all travellers to the beach to avoid taking any valuable articles with you.

Transportation

International Airport 

Augusto Severo International Airport in Parnamirim is located 18 kilometers (9 miles) from Natal.

Highways

Federal Highway BR-101 is the most important access to Natal, coming from the south of Brazil through the boundary with the municipality of Parnamirim. If travelling from the State of Ceará, the principle access is by the Federal Highway BR-304, through the boundary with the municipality of Macaíba, where you pick up BR-226.

When leaving Natal, an important access to the southern Potiguar coast is the RN-063, which is also known as the “Sun Route” (Rota do Sol). This route takes you to the beaches of Pirangi, Búzios, Tabatinga, and up to the municipality of Nísia Floresta. The North Shore is accessible from the Newton Navarro Bridge, following the Praia do Forte to Genipabu, and the Igapó Bridge, following the district of Igapó by BR-101 to Touros, and by BR-406 to Macau.

Bus

Natal is connected to all the 167 municipalities of Rio Grande do Norte, along with dozens of locations and Potiguar districts, through the Passenger Bus Terminal of Natal, which is located in the Eastern zone of the city.

Taxis

Taxis in Rio de Janeiro are white and have red plates. Fares are the same, regardless of how new and comfortable the car is. Fares are regulated by the government.

Salvador

City Description

Salvador is the largest city on the northeastern coast of Brazil and is the capital of the Northeastern Brazilian state of Bahia.

Security

While Salvador is fairly safe, MS Risk advises all travellers to remain vigilant at all times. Always avoid deserted streets, especially after dark.

Transportation

International Airport

Deputado Luís Eduardo Magalhães International Airport is located 28 kilometers (17 miles) north of downtown Salvador.

Highways

The BR-101 and the BR-116 Federal highways cross Bahia from north to south, connecting Salvador to the rest of the country.

Bus

The bus station, or Rodoviária of Salvador, is located in Iguatemi district, with direct buses to larger cities in the country and to many destinations in the state of Bahia.

 

It’s Kick Off Time! But Will It All Kick Off In Brazil?

Posted on in 2014 FIFA World Cup - Security Update title_rule

Short answer: probably not.
In the build up to the 2014 FIFA World Cup, there have been frequent protests about the expense of the stadia, fears of crime sprees, concerns over safety of stadia as well as a number of other topics favoured by nay-sayers. However, it is assessed that once the World Cup begins, the spirit of the sport will unite the masses with football fever. Much like the catastrophic predictions preceding the Summer Games of 2012 and Winter Games 2014, sensationalism sells newspaper and on both of those occasions, the populations pulled together and celebrated the occasion rather than take issue to spoil it.
This is not to say there won’t be the occasional violent event outside a stadium or that street robberies won’t occur, but it is assessed that it won’t happen with a greater frequency or severity at any other time in Brazil or at other large scale sporting events.
It is important to note that Brazil is a big with a lot of people (ranked fifth for both land mass and population) therefore it is foolish to assume there is a homogenous security environment. Not only will the situation vary significantly by city but by neighbourhood, time of day, and security presences as well so the best defence will be an awareness of the immediate situation and the avoidance of trouble.  When angry crowds start forming leave, avoid dark areas with no escape routes, know the emergency phone numbers, don’t carry valuable possessions in the open at night, and always have spare currency separate from your wallet just in case the worst should happen.  The best policy is always to stay out of trouble rather than trying to figure your way out of it.
Please stay tuned to our blog as we keep you up to date on events in Brazil. If you would like to know more about the security environment in Brazil, we will be posting detailed assessments of each host city, please see the details for the São Paulo for the first game between Brazil and Croatia: https://msrisk.com/world-cup/sao-paulo-travel-advisory/
Let the games begin!!