MS Risk Blog

Ceasefire Doubts as Reports of Fighting Emerge in Northeastern Nigeria

While on Friday, Nigerian officials disclosed that they had agreed to a ceasefire with Boko Haram militants, adding that schoolgirls kidnapped in April would soon be released, doubts emerged over the weekend as witnesses and security sources reported that government forces had engaged in fighting with the militants.

 On Friday, a senior aide to President Goodluck Jonathan, Hassan Tukur, announced that an agreement to end the hostilities had been reached following talks between Boko Haram and the Nigerian government, with Defence Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Chris Olukolade disclosing that the fate of more than 200 missing schoolgirls, who were abducted by the insurgents six months ago, was still being negotiated. Nigeria’s chief of defence staff, Air Marshal Alex Badeh, confirmed the truce during a meeting in Abuja between Nigerian and Cameroonian military officials Friday, adding that he had ordered his troops to immediately comply with the agreement.

Many Nigerians however quickly expressed their doubts that the five-year insurgency, which has killed thousands and has left hundreds of thousands homeless, could end with a simple cease-fire. There has also been no immediate confirmation from Boko Haram, with some Nigerians believing that this may simply be a move by the Nigerian government to demonstrate that they are winning the war against the militant group. President Goodluck Jonathan is expected to declare his bid for re-election in the coming weeks and any positive news pertaining to the hostages and the violence would likely give him a much needed political boost. Furthermore, previous government and military claims pertaining to the end of the deadly five-year insurgency, and the fate of the missing girls, have left many cautious. Last year, when a government minister charged with negotiations announced an agreement, Boko Haram quickly released a video with its leader, Abubakar Shekau, denying that an agreement had been reached.

Doubts about the ceasefire were further heightened after witnesses and security sources reported that troops from the 7^th Division of the Nigerian Army fought dozens of suspected Boko Haram militants in the town of Damboa in Borno state on Sunday evening. The militants had earlier attacked that town of Sabon Gida, also in Borno state. Senior army and intelligence officials have also disclosed that they have not yet received any operational orders pertaining to the ceasefire despite Air Marshal Alex Badeh indicating Friday that he had already ordered his troops to comply with the agreement immediately.

IS Reportedly Using Iraqi Pilots to Train Militants to Fly

A UK-based activist group, which is monitoring the conflict in Syria and recent territorial gains by Islamic State (IS), reported Friday that Iraqi pilots who have joined IS are now training IS members in Syria to fly three captured fighter jets.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), witnesses have reported seeing planes being flown around the Al-Jarrah military airport, which is located east of the contested city of Aleppo. Rami Abdul Rahman, head of the SOHR, disclosed Friday that IS militants were using Iraqi officers, who were pilots under ex-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, to train fighters in Syria. He added, “people saw the flights, they went up many times from the airport and they are flying in the skies outside the airport and coming back.”

While it remains unknown just how many Iraqi pilots have defected and what the trainees’ previous level of familiarity with flight is, it is known that IS has three planes in its possession, which they captured earlier on the ground in Aleppo and Raqqa.

If IS is indeed using Iraqi pilots to train its fighters, such a move could have a major impact on global security, and could see the militant group attempt to hijack planes in Europe and the United States. With officials in Europe already warning that a number of EU nationals have travelled to Syria and Iraq to fight alongside IS militants, the jihadist group could be training militants with EU passports on how to hijack planes and carryout terrorist attacks similar to 9/11.

Meanwhile Iraqi forces have launched an attack on IS militants stationed near Tikrit. The Iraqi government reported Friday that its troops have gained ground to the northern and western regions of Tikrit, effectively cutting an important IS supply route. The city is amongst those areas that were seized by IS in Syria and Iraq earlier this year.

Kurdish forces, backed by US-led air strikes, are continuing to fight the militants in the northern Syrian town of Kobane. On Friday, US-led warplanes targeted jihadists attacking Kobane as Pentagon officials disclosed that despite a recent wave of deadly bombings in Baghdad, there was no imminent threat to the capital city.

Pentagon officials announced Friday that despite recent advances made by the militant group to the west of Baghdad, IS was not poised for an assault on the capital city. The battle for the town of Kobane has been seen as a major test for the US-led coalition’s air campaign and whether it will be able to successfully push back the militant group.

Is Libya a Failed state?

Libya has fallen into chaos since the 2011 overthrow of long time dictator Moammar Gadhafi. On 15 October, Egyptian warplanes bombed positions in Benghazi, citing a request by the Libyan administration in Tobruk to assist in battling the militias that have overrun the country. One senior Egyptian official said, “This is a battle for Egypt not Libya.” The fear of the chaos in Libya spreading beyond its borders has caused neighbouring countries to initiate a series of defensive actions, from strengthening border patrols and evacuating citizens, to engaging in attacks. Inside Libya, the country remains paralysed as the country continues its third year of battles.

Failed states often have certain key characteristics:

• A weakened central government
• Little central control over the nation
• Rampant corruption or crime
• Involuntary movement or displacement of the population
• Economic instability or decline
• Failure to provide public services

In light of these characteristics, is it fair to argue that Libya has become a failed state?

It can easily be argued that Libya has a weak central government. On 4 September, the newly elected Libyan government announced that it no longer had control of Tripoli. Militant group Fajr Libya took control of the nation’s capital after several weeks of fighting, and recalled the outgoing government, the Islamist dominated General National Congress (GNC) to resume operations. Meanwhile, the elected government, the House of Representatives, is currently conducting operations from within a 1970s hotel in Tobruk, a thousand miles from the capital. Attempts by the United Nations to negotiate peace talks between the two rival governments came to a standstill in early October. Earlier this week, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon arrived in Tripoli to hold talks with the warring factions. A UN statement on Twitter said Ban “will urge Libyan parties to push forward with political dialogue to restore stability to (the) country.”

Currently, neither of the rival governments carries significant central control over the nation. The country has been divided along tribal groups and militia loyalties. In the east, Ansar al Sharia and other organisation have engaged in battles to create an autonomous region. General Khalifa Hifter has engaged in numerous battles to ‘eliminate’ the radicalised elements that are working to destabilise the nation’s unity. In the west, the region is battling between supporters of the outgoing GNC and the House of Representatives. In the south, clashes between clans have dominated the battles; in April, France referred to the region as a “viper’s nest” of Islamist militants.

The battles among the armed militias and their attempts to enforce dominance in various regions, has led to rampant corruption and crime. The nation has seen an uptick in kidnapping (including the kidnapping of government officials), assassination attempts, offices of businesses and the government held hostage, rampant shootings. Activist group Human Rights Watch has observed that in 2014, there have been at least 250 politically motivated assassinations in Benghazi and Derna alone. They add, “No one has claimed responsibility and there have been no known arrests for the killings. Libyan authorities have failed to conduct investigations, or prosecute those responsible for any of the unlawful killings since 2011, fostering a culture of impunity that has fuelled further abuses.” The lawlessness and clashes in major cities, has caused many residents involuntarily relocate their families to safer regions. This is particularly true in Tripoli and Benghazi.  The United Nations Human Rights Council has estimated that 287,000 people in 29 cities and towns countrywide have been displaced.

Libya has suffered steady economic decline in recent years. Several militias, as well as the rival governments are battling for control of the nation’s vast oil reserves. In 2013, the economy was frozen by blockades of oil export terminals in the East. Last month, ship operators announced that cargo imports into Libya have dropped by an estimated 75%, in large part due to the closure of banks in the nation. These closures affected the ability of Libyan importers to make payments or open letters of credit. Further exacerbating the imports are violence at ports and destinations, the absence of inland transportation, damage to warehouse facilities and the increasing cost of insurance premiums for operations in Libya. It is estimated that Libya’s budget deficit could more than double to 19 billion Libyan dinars ($15 billion) in 2014.

Finally, Libya is struggling to maintain public services including water and electricity. In August, power was cut across most Libyan cities and towns, including Benghazi and Ajdabia. Libya’s General Electricity Company said the blackouts were due to “the acute shortage of fuel supplies to generating stations in the southern areas. Major power transmission circuits which supply Tripoli and neighboring areas have been damaged as well. Other major circuits are also out of service in the eastern area.” Meanwhile, last month leaders in Sirte held an emergency meeting to discuss the shortage of drinking water.

Libya currently has a number of worrying factors, suggesting that if it is not a failed state, it could certainly become one. The UN is currently working to reignite talks between warring factions in hopes of creating a smooth transition of power between the GNC and the House of Representatives. The House of Representatives, for its part, is working to cut the budget deficit for 2015, establish a strong and loyal army, and ensure an increase of public services and a decline in crime and corruption. However, these endeavours may only become successful in the absence of armed militias and radicalised groups. Libya may lean heavily on outside support to bring it back from the brink.

Ebola Cases Continue To Rise; Nigeria and Senegal Could Be Declared Ebola-Free in Days

New figures released by the World Health Organisation on Tuesday 14 October revealed that over 8,900 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) have been reported in seven affected countries: Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Spain and the United States of America. As of 14 October there have been 4,447 deaths. Health workers have been hit hard by the outbreak, with Doctors Without Borders reporting that sixteen of its employees have been infected with Ebola, in which nine of them have died. A top United Nations official warned this week that Ebola was winning the race as the WHO warned that within the next two months, West Africa could face up to 10,000 new Ebola cases per week if the outbreak is not contained.

Speaking at a news conference in Geneva, WHO assistant director-general Dr Bruce Aylward, disclosed that the death rate in the current outbreak had risen to 70 percent, from the previously estimated mortality rate of 50 percent. Acknowledging that Ebola was “a high mortality disease,” Dr Aylward noted that the UN health agency was still focused on getting six people into isolation and providing treatment to them as early as possible, adding that if the global response to the current Ebola outbreak is not stepped up in the coming sixty days, “a lot more people will die” and health workers will be stretched even further.

Experts in the field have indicated that the epidemic is doubling in size about every three weeks, with Dr Aylward indicating that over the last month, there have been about 1,000 new Ebola cases per week. This included confirmed, suspected and probable cases. Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone continue to the be the hardest-hit countries in the current epidemic, with WHO officials particularly concerned about the spread of Ebola in their capital cities – Conakry, Monrovia and Freetown – where people move freely across borders. While some regions in these countries have seen the number of Ebola cases either stabilize or fall, this does not mean that the regions are Ebola-free. Neighbouring countries, including Guinea-Bissau, the Ivory Coast and Mali are currently at a high risk of importing the disease.

The WHO also announced Tuesday that Nigeria and Senegal could be declared Ebola-free in the coming days after completing a 42-day period with no new cases. A statement released on Tuesday revealed “if the active surveillance for new cases that is currently in place continues, and no new cases are detected, WHO will declare the end of the outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Senegal on Friday 17 October.” If no new cases are reported in Nigeria, then the WHO will declare it Ebola-free on 20 October.

Senegal had one patient who was confirmed to have EVD. He has since recovered and it does not appear that anyone else was infected with the deadly disease. In Nigeria, one traveller from Liberia triggered an outbreak in which eight people died, most of them health workers.   The virus spread from the initial case in Lagos to Port Harcourt however it has since been contained with no new reported cases. The situation in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone however is far different as, according to the WHO, “new cases continue to explode in areas that looked like they were coming under control.” Adding “an unusual characteristic of this epidemic is a persistent cyclical pattern of gradual dips in the number of new cases, followed by sudden flare-ups.”

Officials at the WHO indicate that waiting for forty-two days from the time when the last person with high risk exposure has tested negative for the disease effectively provides sufficient confidence to declare that the outbreak is over. The 42-day period is twice the generally accepted maximum incubation period of the virus however some incubation periods are longer, with the WHO is indicating that in 95 percent of Ebola cases, the incubation period was between one and 21 days while in 98 percent, it was no longer than 42 days.

Twenty-Seven Hostages Released in Cameroon

Cameroon’s President confirmed Saturday that twenty-seven hostages, kidnapped earlier this year in raids blamed on Nigerian Islamist group Boko Haram, have been released in Cameroon.

According to a statement released by the office of President Paul Biya, “the 27 hostages abducted on May 16 in Waza and July 27 in Kolofata were released to the Cameroonian authorities this night.” The ten Chinese citizens, and seventeen other local hostages, including the wife of Cameroon’s deputy prime minister, are all “safe and sound.”

In mid-May, a group of ten Chinese construction workers was seized from a construction camp in Waza, in Cameroon’s Far North region near the border with Nigeria, in an attack that left one Cameroonian soldier dead. While in June, Cameroonian authorities had disclosed that six people had been arrested in connection to the kidnappings of the Chinese citizens, no further information pertaining to their whereabouts was released. The seventeen locals, including Francoise Agnes Moukouri, the wife of vice prime minster Amadou Ali, were kidnapped in July during two simultaneous assaults that targeted their residence in the border town of Kolofata. A military spokesman had indicated at the time that as the fighter retreated with the hostages, they set fire to the residence, stole safes and vehicles and killed at least fifteen people. Both attacks were blamed on Boko Haram. A local religious leader who was also abducted in the July attack was amongst those released Saturday.

Cameroon shares a border of more than 2,000 kilometres (1,200 miles) with Nigeria, where Boko Haram has been waging a deadly insurgency since 2009. While the group did not specifically claim responsibility for these kidnappings, they have been involved in a number of other abductions, including the kidnapping of 200 schoolgirls from a remote village in northeastern Nigeria in April 2014, which sparked international outrage. The attacks and kidnappings in May and July also sparked concerns that the Nigerian-based insurgents were further expanding their operations into Cameroon as the government became increasingly involved in regional efforts to contain them.

While Saturday’s brief statement pertaining to the release of the hostages did not provide any details about the conditions of their release, sources have disclosed that Cameroonian authorities paid at least US $400,000 in ransom in order to secure the release of Francoise Agnes Moukouri, the wife of the Vice Prime Minister. The deal to release them was apparently reached on Thursday, three days prior to their release. According to the source, who was part of the negotiation that led to the release of the hostages, the terms of the settlement included the payment of an undisclosed sum of money from the Chinese government for the release of the ten construction workers.

On previous occasions, Cameroonian officials have indicated that the government does not pay ransoms in kidnapping cases.