The ‘Iron-clad’ Alliance – Philippines and US Expand Defence Commitment
February 24, 2026 in Uncategorized
Key Judgements
On Tuesday 17th February, a joint-statement from the US and Philippines pledged additional deployments of missile and unmanned systems in the Philippines. The announcement, made following the annual US-Philippines Strategic Dialogue in Manila, reinforces the Philippine’s capacity to leverage distributed deterrence.
- As the Philippines deepens its international defence partnerships, the political weight and costs of Chinese aggression has further increased.
- The move is likely to escalate the build-up of military infrastructure and the frequency of confrontation as China seeks to undermine US regional influence.
Objective
This analysis intends to map the trajectory of Philippine defence strategy and alignment, seeking to determine how an evolution in threat perception shifts its role as an actor in broader regional dynamics.
Context
Tuesday’s announcement follows a pattern of increased defence commitments between the Philippines and its international partners relating to military infrastructure and cooperation. The move comes amidst ongoing territorial dispute with China, whose defence expenditure has more than doubled since 2013, including yearly increases of 6-8 percent. Following the 2012 Scarborough Shoal standoff, the Philippine government embarked upon an ambitious 15-year military modernisation programme, set to continue through to 2027. This transition responds to a shift in security focus away from domestic insurgency towards prioritisation of external and maritime deterrence. The onset of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration in 2022 has paved the way for expanded defence cooperation with the Philippine’s partners, most recently including Japan, Australia, Italy and Canada. Manila’s current strategy is to leverage these international partnerships to reduce the asymmetry of unilateral military power, signifying intent to respond to China’s provocations through layered deterrence.
Timeline of US-Philippine bilateral defence cooperation
- 1951 – US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) – Establishment of a formal alliance in the event of an attack.
- 1998 – Visiting Forces Agreement – Legal foundation for the presence and jurisdiction of US military personnel across the Philippines.
- 2014 – Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) – Permits US forces rotational access to nine Philippine military bases as of 2023.
- 2024 – General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) – Facilitates the sharing of classified intelligence and defence technology between the respective states.
- 2025 – Acceleration of advanced capabilities, joint-operations and strengthened defense industrial cooperation.
- 2026 – Commitment of increased advanced missile deployment and unmanned systems.
Analysis
The latest agreement between the US and the Philippines marks a symbolic reaffirmation of the partnership on the 75thanniversary of their alliance. This is especially significant for the US as the strategic positioning of the Philippines in relation to the Chinese mainland ensures that it features centrally in deterrence capability planning for Taiwan. Philippine ambassador to Washington Jose Manuel, who took part in Monday’s talks, said that discussions revolved around the possible deployment of upgraded missile launchers. This would supplement the installation of a mid-range Typhon missile launcher system in 2024, which currently places China and Taiwan within the 1,600km range of its Tomahawk-capable payload. Pledges to boost this capability with additional systems signal that the Philippines is reorientating away from sole domestic posture into being an integrated member of US forward deterrence architecture. In the immediate-term, this positioning is likely to escalate grey-zone confrontations with China as it seeks to test the limits of the partnership and respond with development of its own land-based capabilities. In the mid-term, the move represents a solidification of bloc-politics in the region, where the Philippines will attempt to reduce China’s political and economic leverage through closer engagement with US-foreign policy objectives.
