Romanian Presidential Election and Russian Interference

On November 24, 2024, Romania held its presidential elections, which resulted in no candidate securing an absolute majority, prompting a second round scheduled for December 8. However, on December 6, the Constitutional Court annulled the initial results because of Russian interference. Călin Georgescu, an independent NATO and EU-skeptic nationalist, won a relative majority in the first round, while liberal Elena Lasconi finished second. Georgescu’s rise to prominence was largely attributed to Russian influence and the extensive use of non-traditional media, particularly TikTok, which significantly boosted his campaign. Key issues in the election included corruption, traditional Christian values, Romania’s stance on EU and NATO membership, and the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War.

Following the election results, serious allegations of manipulation and foreign interference emerged. Opinion polls had initially shown Georgescu as a minor candidate, raising doubts about his unexpected success. These claims of fraud prompted the Constitutional Court to order a recount, which confirmed the results and validated the runoff. However, on December 4, declassified intelligence reports revealed unusual activities surrounding the election. Reports indicated coordinated misinformation campaigns on TikTok, aimed at influencing public opinion in favor of Georgescu, and cyberattacks on the official Romanian election website, both linked to Russian interference. Illegal campaign financing was also uncovered.

The court’s decision to annul the results ignited significant controversy, both domestically and internationally. The situation deepened existing skepticism toward the government and political parties. Georgescu, a former senior civil servant and agricultural engineer, is known for his far-right nationalist views, which include skepticism toward both the EU and NATO. His rejection of further support for Ukraine and his focus on national interests over Western alliances made him a controversial figure, attracting attention both in Romania and internationally. Russia’s interest in the Romanian election lies in its broader strategy of weakening the unity of the West and undermining the EU and NATO by exploiting the vulnerabilities of individual member states. Romania has significant geostrategic importance as a key NATO ally on the eastern flank, with critical military infrastructure and contributions to regional security, particularly in the Black Sea. During the war, Romania expanded maritime trade opportunities with Ukraine in Danube and Black Sea ports, helping to secure new trade corridors. A destabilization of Romania could complicate strategic logistics and trade partnerships with Ukraine. The risk of an alienated Romania, with a Eurosceptic and NATO-skeptic president, distancing itself from its Western allies could seriously undermine NATO’s cohesion and its ability to respond effectively to regional threats. Moreover, Romania’s efforts to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, particularly through the Neptun Deep gas project in the Black Sea, threaten Russia’s influence in the region.

Russia’s campaigns aim to exploit public dissatisfaction with domestic governments, weaken trust in institutions, and erode support for NATO and EU policies by amplifying sensitive issues like economic struggles, social inequalities, and controversial policies. One such narrative portrays foreign investments, particularly from the U.S., in Romania’s resources as a threat to national sovereignty. These narratives aim to foster resistance to Western economic involvement, especially regarding the Neptun Deep gas project. At the same time, Russia has backed campaigns appealing to Orthodox Christian nationalist sentiment, increasing tensions between Romania and its Western allies. In addition, Russia has used disinformation campaigns, often launched from Moldova, to undermine the Romanian public’s trust in the government and Western institutions, exploiting social and economic discontent and also weakening public support for Ukraine. Through these tactics, Russia seeks to weaken Romania’s commitment to the EU and NATO, destabilize its political landscape, and further its strategic interests in the region.

The interference in the Romanian elections is a demonstration of the hybrid tactics used in Russia’s geopolitical strategy to weaken Western unity. It is unique because it is the first time that Russian interference has led to the annulment of an election with credible evidence. Romania’s handling of foreign interference will be closely watched by other countries facing similar threats, particularly in terms of transparency and public accountability. If Romania can effectively demonstrate that it identified, addressed and neutralised the interference in a way that strengthens institutional credibility, it could provide a model for responding to hybrid warfare tactics aimed at undermining democratic systems.