Objective

This report addresses the extent and impact of the escalations along the Thai-Cambodian border since the renewal of fighting in early December 2025, considering the evolution of the conflict and its regional implications.

Context

Thailand and Cambodia have experienced longstanding historic tensions dating back to the Khmer Empire, from which territorial disputes have continued since. The ancient Hindu temple of Preah Vihear became a symbolic feature of the dispute, where in 1962 the International Court of Justice ruled the site belonged to Cambodia, with Thailand accepting the ruling, however disagreeing on ownership of the surrounding land. Throughout 2008-2011 the border experienced several military clashes as both sides accused each other of violating territorial sovereignty. In July 2025, following mediation by President Trump and Malaysian Prime Minister and chair of ASEAN Anwar Ibrahim, a ceasefire agreement temporarily halted a spike in fighting and was subsequently expanded into a broader agreement in October. However, in December fighting once again broke out with each side accusing one another of once again violating the ceasefire terms following an incident in which two Thai soldiers were injured. Thailand has claimed the landmines were recently laid by Cambodia and provided photographic evidence that has subsequently been verified by independent experts. Cambodia has accused the recently elected Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul of escalating the conflict to bolster internal political support ahead of a predicted dissolvement of parliament and snap elections in March 2026.

Analysis 

The heavy clashes along the border have showcased the discrepancy in military capabilities between Thailand and Cambodia, with the former gaining near complete air superiority against Cambodia’s weaker aerial defences. Despite recent Cambodian claims that it has downed a Thai Air Force drone, the Thai military has carried out numerous successful airstrikes across the region with its advanced F16 and Girpen fighter jets. Targets have included Casinos that Thailand has accused Cambodia of repurposing as military command centres and compounds used for scamming operations. Most recently, Thai ground forces have fully regained control of the Chan An Ma area and the Ta Kwai Temple following close quarters combat. Cambodia has in return fired BM-21 rockets towards the Thai side of the border, with both sides claiming civilians to be victims of indiscriminate targeting. As of 19th December, Thailand claims to have lost 21 soldiers, although Cambodia disputes this number, on the Cambodian side the government has not officially reported military deaths, with Thailand claiming the number is in the hundreds.

Whilst fighting has been largely contained along the border, the clashes have had wider regional implications. On the 15th December Thailand’s military announced that it was preventing fuel supplies from transiting through the border to Laos due to concerns it was being diverted to Cambodia. Regional leaders have called for restraint ahead of the upcoming ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting on 22nd December. The conflict has also tested President Trump’s ability to dissuade each state from further fighting, as Thai Prime Minister Charnivarkul has repeatedly rejected external pressures to cease operations until Cambodia’s military is significantly crippled. In response, Cambodian officials have stated that its position is that it only wants peace and signalled that the country was willing to negotiate. Whilst the true number of casualties remains heavily disputed, it is evident that hundreds of thousands have been displaced and the $5bn border trade between the two nations has diminished.