Netherlands Joining European Long-range Missile Strike Approach

Key Judgements

The Netherlands is considering joining the European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA)

The Dutch defence minister believes it is essential to increase capacity against further Russian aggression

What is the European Long-Range Missile Strike Approach? 

France, Germany, Italy, and Poland launched the ELSA project in July 2024 to develop a ground-based missile for deep strikes against enemy positions. The United Kingdom and Sweden joined in October 2024. The programme aims to create a sovereign defence capability, strengthen the European defence industry and technology base and implement fairer sharing of the burden between Allies. The Ukraine War demonstrated the need for this approach as Russia used ballistic and cruise missiles to attack Ukrainian cities from a far distance.

Previously, during the Cold War, ground-launched missiles were prohibited from having a range of 1,000-2,000 kilometres under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. However, this agreement collapsed in 2019 after the US and Russia withdrew. This happened after the US accused Russia of violating the pact by building a new type of cruise missile.

The Dutch defence minister, Ruben Brekelmans, announced an interest in participating while in Paris on 27th November 2024. He highlighted how essential it is for European armies to increase their capacity to deter further aggression from Russia. The Ukraine War has demonstrated the need for ground-launched deep strike capability as Russian missiles have destroyed Ukrainian cities from far-off ranges. The decision to join by the Netherlands comes as Russia announces plans to place the latest intercontinental ballistic missile system  (RS-28 Sarmat) on combat duty. This has been made to help Russia modern its nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile system with the capability to strike targets in Europe and the US.

Why is the Netherlands joining?

Brekelmans acknowledged the incoming US administration under Donald Trump, saying European capitals need to show America they are taking on more of the burden for defence within NATO. This also explains the development of the ELSA project as European powers feel it is better to develop their own independent system than purchase one from an outside power like the US. This feeds into an overall sense that Europe wants to become more reliant on itself for security rather than the US. Part of this decision comes from a fear of President Trump reducing US involvement in NATO, or pulling out altogether as he has threatened in the past.

European powers also want to fill a perceived capability gap between themselves and Russia. All the current ELSA participants already possess air and for some, sea-launched cruise missiles but they all have a smaller range of 500 kilometres. One of the advantages of cruise missiles is they fly lower than other projection weaponry like ballistic systems. Only Turkey possesses a ground-based system. The reason behind this capability gap is the significant drop in overall defence spending by NATO allies in Europe after the Cold War, falling by 20 per cent after 2008. In particular, high-intensity combat has been structurally underfunded. By closing this capability gap European powers aim to deter further aggression from Russia.

The Netherlands in particular has been looking for an increase in long-range strike capacity for some time, hence their decision in February of 2024 to purchase 120 air-launched cruise missiles from the US. The European power has made other investments in its military including a 4 billion Euro investment plan with a focus on its maritime domain with new Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles, new frigates and new submarines. The reason behind these investments is mainly to help combat the growing security threat from Russian aggression and, like other European nations, to limit any dependency on outside powers for defence. However, it will likely still need support from overseas as many of the suppliers it has partnered with manufacture their products offshore, including in the US, Norway and Israel.

There has been a growing strategic closeness on defence issues between European nations. The Netherlands signed a contract in late September of this year to buy four Barracuda submarines from the French shipmaker Naval Group. Indeed, one of the objectives of the ELSA is to reduce the costs of the system by spreading them amongst the various nations. This aligns with the French president, Emmanuel Macron’s goal of creating a new European security framework

What happens next? 

It will take some time for this decision by the Dutch government to take full effect as the reality of ELSA is still a few years away. Additionally, the full cost of the system has not been announced and there is the possibility of citizens feeling less warm towards an expensive military project in a time of economic downturn.

While the stated goal of European defence officials is to create ground-launched capability it is important to note that this is not explicitly stated in any of the official statements or announcements surrounding the ELSA. In fact, the Swedish defence minister, Pal Jonson,  has said his country won’t prioritise ground-based strike options, instead focusing on naval and aerial domains, which are of greater national interest.

It is possible that if the ELSA initiative moves closer towards implementation, MBDA, a European defence firm, will be the one developing the technology. This gives further support that European powers are concentrating on building up their domestic industries. It also means the development of a cruise missile is more likely than a ballistic system as many of the European defence-industrial firms have greater experience and expertise in the former. However, there are also concerns as the implementation of new weapons systems takes a considerable chunk of time, take the Anglo-French Future Cruise/Anti-Ship Weapon that is still under development and will not be ready before 2028 at the earliest despite being announced in 2017.