Israel’s double strikes: A Spark for Regional Conflict

Two high-profile killings in Beirut and Tehran have highlighted Israel’s military capability, with the potential to change Middle Eastern relations. The killings of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Faud Shukur has prompted strong reactions from regional players and could further escalate tensions in the region.

On Wednesday 31^st July, a strike in Tehran killed Ismail Haniyeh, a political leader for Hamas, who was visiting Iran for the presidential inauguration. Haniyeh’s death followed the assassination of Faud Shukur in Beirut, allegedly carried out by Israel in retaliation for a Hezbollah attack that resulted in the deaths of twelve children in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights town of Majdal Shams.

The Israeli message for the attack in Beirut is that this was their promised response to the Majdal Shams strike, and they are not interested in engaging in a more deadly war with Hezbollah. According to Lebanon’s Ministry of Health, the attack in Beirut claimed the lives of at least five civilians, including two children and three women, and injured 74 others in the surrounding area. Hezbollah has not yet confirmed Shukur’s death.

Israel has claimed responsibility for Shukur’s assassination, identifying him as the mastermind behind the deadly rocket attack in the Golan Heights. The United States also holds Shukur accountable for the 1983 bombing of a Marine Corps barracks in Lebanon, which led to the deaths of 241 American service members.

On the other hand, Israel has yet to confirm its involvement in Haniyeh’s death. However, a photo of Haniyeh with the word “Eliminated” written appeared on the Government Press Office’s Facebook page. The message, which was later deleted without explanation, did not expressly say Israel carried out the hit, but did state that the Hamas official “was killed in a precise strike in Tehran.”

Following these strikes it increases significantly the danger of expansion of the conflict. Hezbollah will certainly respond to the killing of Shukr, but so will Iran for its attack on its soil whose leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has already promised revenge. Iran may launch a small-scale strike to demonstrate that “we will not tolerate attacks on our soil,” but nothing that could escalate into something larger.

On the Lebanese front, the U.S has worked hard to maintain a delicate balance among Hezbollah and Isael. However, this strike on Lebanese soil has the potential to disturb the status quo and provoke a strong reaction. In recent weeks, we have witnessed more tension between the boards, increasing the prospect of a strong response from Hezbollah. Furthermore, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to interfere if Israel enters Lebanon, pledging to send troops, adding yet another party to the tensions.