Implications of the of the 2025 German Election on defence and security policy

Key Judgements

• Friedrich Merz is likely to become the new German Chancellor after the election
• Defence spending is highly likely to increase to strengthen independent European security
• The major political parties disagree on policies around defence and security
• The makeup of the new coalition will impact the effectiveness of the new government’s defence spending

Context: Why is Germany important to European defence? 

Germany is preparing for a national election on the 23^rd of February 2025 after the collation under Olaf Scholz collapsed. The current frontrunner is the conservative candidate Friedrich Merz who must create a new coalition amongst Germany’s political parties.

The War in Ukraine has brought military issues back to the centre of attention for German politics, forcing political parties to rethink their positions on national security. Another reason for the shift, is the threat of dis-engagement under the new Trump administration and the request for a 5% share of GDP. Security decisions will likely need to be made more quickly, and more money will have to be spent due to the potential US economic and security pressures. All the major parties, the CDU & CSU (the Union), SPD, Greens and FDP, agree on the need to strengthen the German armed forces and have committed to allocating a higher share of GDP to defence.

Differences between the political parties 

There are still divisions over how to finance military spending. The Greens are considering an increase in public debt to support the modernisation of the armed forces. The Union have stated they will not increase German spending of GDP to 5% saying the US doesn’t spend this amount. Additionally, there is debate around the re-introduction of military service. The SPD and the Greens propose a voluntary but structured system adhering to the needs of the troops. Whereas the FDP insists on only pure volunteers. Alternatively, the Union proposes the return of compulsory military service or “compulsory social year” for young Germans.

The War in Ukraine also represents an area of differing strategic views. While all parties agree on the need to support Kyiv to ensure it has a strong negotiating position there are major differences in the tools being used. The FDP support the Taurus cruise missile whereas SPD reject it. The current Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has refused to supply Taurus missiles on the basis that Ukraine could use them to hit Russian targets making Germany a part of the war. The Bavarian State Premiere, Markus Soder, used a similar argument as part of the CSU. This is despite the fact the US, the UK and France have all supplied similar long-range weapons to Ukraine. The CDU’s candidate, Friedrich Merz, has declared his willingness to supply the missile but only after consulting with European NATO partners. Currently, the CDU and CSU “Union” have not clear positions in their manifesto. This has been highlighted by the conservative press in Germany who criticise the Union’s positions on defence and security arguing they lack concrete commitments around the Taurus missile and plans to strengthen the German armed force.

The SPD and the Union support the presence of American weapons systems within Germany, whereas the AfD and BSW oppose it. Additionally, the Union are hinting at the possibility of Germany participating in negotiations towards  Ukraine including the deployment of Bundeswehr soldiers to keep the peace. On the other hand, the AfD supports more radical policies that risk isolating Germany, including theories around Putin’s victory up to the refusal of rearmament. These positions find a consensus amongst the electorate especially in eastern Germany where there is more respect for Russia policies due to the pre-existing energy relationship. Additionally, immigration and the economy are marked out as the two biggest problems in Germany by voters, only 8% view domestic security as a pressing issue.

What happens next? 

The most likely outcome is for Germany’s next chancellor to be Friedrich Merz and the conservatives. The various parties that will make up the future coalition are still up for debate and depend heavily on how many seats each party gains during the election.

If the outcome is a coalition between the Union and the SPD there is concern that security policy will proceed slowly. The SPD would likely continue their “peace populism” policy while distancing themselves from their coalition partner. This would cause Merz to face criticism from both the SPD and the Union.

Alternatively, a coalition between the Union and the Greens could push Germany security policy forward as the junior partners in the coalition have shifted from being a party with many pacifists to being one of the biggest supports of military aid to Ukraine including the delivery of weapons systems. There is greater alignment between the two parties allowing security policy to flow more smoothly.