Europe’s Eastern Flank: Presidential Elections in Poland and Romania

Summary

Presidential elections were held in Poland and Romania on 18 May. In Romania, the independent, pro-European candidate Nicușor Dan, mayor of Bucharest, won the runoff election by a narrow margin against the right-wing populist George Simion. Both were considered anti-establishment. In Poland, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, narrowly won the first round ahead of Karol Nawrocki of the national conservative PiS party; the runoff election is scheduled for 1 June.

The political situation is characterised by strong polarisation, institutional instability and external influence – from Russia, but also from actors in the United States and neighbouring European countries. The mobilisation of the political centre has remained reactive: a defensive success, but not a sign of structural stability.

Key judgements

• In both countries, pro-European candidates won the presidential elections, or the first round, but amid high political polarisation and institutional strain.
• In Romania, confidence in institutions remains fragile; forming a government is complicated and poses political risks for President Dan.
• In Poland, the runoff election on 1 June will be decisive for the Tusk government’s ability to implement reforms. A victory for Nawrocki would cement the domestic political stalemate.
• Both countries remain key security pillars within the EU and on NATO’s eastern flank, both militarily and in terms of energy and logistics.
• Populism has not disappeared but is merely being kept in check. External attempts to influence the situation – particularly from Russia and parts of the US MAGA camp – are exacerbating institutional tensions.

Analysis

The election in Romania will not bring immediate stabilisation, as institutional trust remains fragile. Polarisation remains unchanged and the capacity for reform continues to be limited. Forming a government remains complicated: no coalition option is politically unproblematic, and every decision carries the risk of damaging Dan’s independence. Involving established parties could undermine his reformist image, while excluding them could block the formation of a majority. Domestic political expectations are enormous. A comparable burden is evident in Poland, where the ability of Donald Tusk’s government to implement its reform promises depends largely on the outcome of the runoff election. For the PiS party, the question is whether the lost parliamentary election in 2023 was only a temporary setback or whether it can strategically prepare for a return to power.

Strategic Significance

Due to its location, Romania plays a central role for NATO logistics and in the development of a new Black Sea strategy for the EU. The air bases at Mihail Kogălniceanu and Deveselu are key strategic sites: Mihail Kogălniceanu serves as a major logistics and deployment hub, while Deveselu hosts the U.S. Aegis Ashore missile defense system, making both critical to NATO’s eastern flank. The Danube, as a supply corridor via the Black Sea, is also strategically important, especially for military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. In addition, the Neptun Deep offshore gas field in the Black Sea is considered an important building block in reducing European dependence on Russian natural gas.

Poland, as a frontline state bordering Belarus and Ukraine, is a key strategic actor in NATO’s eastern flank strategy. With defence spending at 4.7% of GDP, it ranks among the alliance’s top contributors. Beyond serving as a hub for arms deliveries and refugee logistics, Poland is shaping regional security policy and plays a leading role in strengthening NATO’s deterrence and defence posture in Eastern Europe. A stronger government under Prime Minister Tusk – together with Trzaskowski as a pro-European and party colleague – could significantly improve security coordination with the EU and transatlantic partners while reducing domestic tensions.

What happens next

In Poland, the outcome of the election on 1 June will be decisive for the Tusk government’s ability to act. A victory for Trzaskowski could bring about moderate stabilisation and massively weaken the power of the PIS party. A victory for Nawrocki would further block Tusk’s reform agenda and exacerbate the ongoing judicial conflict. The PiS would ultimately prepare to regain power.

In Romania, Dan’s election consolidates the country’s pro-Western orientation and strengthens its security policy position in the context of the war in Ukraine. At the same time, he could speed up Moldova’s integration into the EU and reduce the influence of pro-Russian groups in the region. (Moldova and Romania share deep historical, cultural, linguistic and ethnic ties). Regardless of the election outcome, one thing became clear: voters want a break with the established political system – a signal that is likely to have repercussions beyond Romania.

Conclusion and outlook

Both countries are prime examples of how democracies react to populist pressure – but without structural safeguards. In Bucharest, populism has been contained for the time being, and in Warsaw, the answer is still pending. External attempts to influence the situation, domestic polarisation and institutional weaknesses remain key risk factors – not only for the countries concerned, but for the political stability of Europe as a whole.