Poland at a Crossroads: Security Policy and the 2025 Presidential Election
The first round of the Polish presidential elections will take place on 18 May 2025. The election campaign reflects the division between the government and the national conservative camp. The focus is on security policy and the domestic political balance of power between the former governing party PiS (Law and Justice) and the current government under President Donald Tusk (PO – Civic Coalition). As a key state on NATO’s eastern border, Poland is faced with the security policy choice of further deepening the European cooperation it has embarked on – or focussing more strongly on national sovereignty and independence. The election marks a decision between European-cooperative security integration and a nationalist approach prioritising strategic autonomy.
After two terms in office, the incumbent President Andrzej Duda is not allowed to run for re-election. Current polls show three promising candidates. A run-off is to be expected, as an absolute majority is required in the first round of voting. The supporter of the Tusk government is the pro-European liberal-conservative Rafał Trzaskowski – mayor of Warsaw since 2018 and narrowly defeated by Duda in the 2020 election. Meanwhile, a national-conservative bloc has coalesced around Karol Nawrocki and Konfederacja’s right-wing populist candidate Sławomir Mentzen. The security policy ideas of these candidates reflect different concepts and fundamental approaches: Trzaskowski relies on close cooperation with the EU and NATO, advocates an increase in defence spending and emphasises the importance of constitutional and democratic oversight of the police and intelligence services. He also advocates the depoliticisation of security institutions and a strengthening of multilateral cooperation. Nawrocki, on the other hand, pursues a national conservative stance that relies on a strong, sovereign state with an independent defence policy and a critical distance to the European Union. Finally, Mentzen propagates a libertarian, isolationist approach, rejects further integration into European security structures and calls for a reduction in defence spending and the withdrawal of Polish troops from abroad.
Security policy has been a very high priority in Poland since its official independence in 1991. This is due to the country’s difficult past, the latent threat from Russia and the border with the exclave of Kaliningrad. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has massively changed Poland’s threat perception and reignited old fears. Defence spending increased from 2.4% to 4.7% of GDP (2022-2025). The budget for the current year amounts to around USD 45 billion, with a significant proportion going towards modernisation measures and border security. This places Poland at the top of NATO in terms of defence spending relative to GDP. As Ukraine’s neighbour, Poland also forms the logistical backbone of Western military assistance to Kyiv. Poland has thus established itself as the security policy hub of NATO’s eastern flank. Poland has so far provided over 600 million US dollars in military aid to Ukraine, with an estimated 80% of military donations to Ukraine having passed through Polish territory. This role is complemented by the permanent stationing of allied troops in Poland, including a multinational brigade under US command, the headquarters of the US 5th Army Corps in Poznań and the missile defence base in Redzikowo.
In Poland, effective policymaking in defence and security largely depends on cooperation between the president and the government. The president has far-reaching powers, including the veto power and supreme command of the armed forces. Depending on the political orientation, this can become an instrument of co-operation or blockade. In both political camps, the terms ‘security’ and ‘defence’ are highly ideologically charged. The national-conservative forces associate them primarily with border protection, cultural homogeneity and state authority. The pro-European liberal camp associates it with the democratic control of security organisations, international cooperation and social resilience. The presidential election will therefore not only decide on personnel issues, but also on the institutional capacity to act in key areas of security policy.
In light of growing geopolitical uncertainty and possible shifts in transatlantic relations, the Polish presidential election is gaining additional relevance in terms of security policy. The European security architecture is coming under increasing pressure. As a militarily strong player on NATO’s eastern flank and a reliable partner within the EU, Poland is of central importance. The previous domestic political deadlock between the president and the government has made security policy action more difficult and hindered coordination at the European level. An election victory for Rafał Trzaskowski would open up the possibility of a more coherent foreign policy line and closer coordination with the government – which in turn could strengthen the EU’s ability to act in the security field. While national fragmentation could jeopardise European security, experts believe that in the long term a coordinated Polish approach could contribute to stabilisation and burden-sharing within the alliance.
