Guinea’s Long-Delayed Elections Set to Take Place September 28
September 25, 2013 in Guinea
Guinea’s long-delayed legislative elections, which were scheduled to occur on Tuesday, have been postponed by four days to September 28 after talks were held on Saturday in Conakry between the opposition and the government. The talks over the weekend come after Guinea’s main opposition leader threatened to call protests if officials went forwards with the elections without fully addressing the complaints pertaining to preparations. The opposition has complained that the voter list contains a number of errors, effectively meaning that many of its supporters have been left off the list while some people have been registered several times. It has also complained that polling stations in oppositions strongholds have been scattered far apart, meaning that voters would have to travel far and therefore would be less likely to vote. Following Saturday’s talks, Cellou Dalein Diallo, the main opposition leader, has stated that although he wants a longer delay in order to fix the issues, he is satisfied with the compromised date of September 28.
The elections are meant to complete the country’s transition back to civilian rule however they have been repeatedly delayed since current President Alpha Conde was elected three years ago. These delays have effectively created doubts about the political progress not only amongst Guineans, but investors and donor. The West African nation’s economic growth forecast has been cut to 2.9 percent for this year, down from 4.5 percent. This is a result of the protests and ongoing political issues.
Over the past several months, dozens of people have been killed in protests over the election preparations. Furthermore, while this delay will allow organizers to address some of the issues, it is likely that the fundamental lack of trust between between the two sides and the election commission will continue, meaning that tensions are likely to simmer.
New al-Qaeda-Linked Alliance Wages Jihad on France
August 23, 2013 in AfricaAn al-Qaeda-linked militia that was founded by Islamist commander Mokhtar Belmokhtar announced on Thursday that it would be joining forces with another armed group in order to take revenge against France for its military offensive in Mali. While this move is no surprise to analysts, as the two groups have previously collaborated in carrying out regional attacks, it does cement the fact that the Sahel region will remain the new focal point for global counter-insurgency efforts.
Reports surfaced on Thursday that Belmokhtar’s Mauritanian-based al-Mulathameen Brigade (the Brigade of the Masked Ones) along with Malian-based terrorist group Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), which is believed to be led by Ahmed Ould Amer, have joined forces under one banner in a bid to unite Muslims and to target French interests in the West African region. In a statement that was published by Mauritanian news agency Nouakchott News Agency (ANI), the two groups indicated that “your brothers in MUJAO and al-Mulathameen announced their union and fusion in one movement called al-Murabitoun, to unify the ranks of Muslims around the same goal, from the Nile to the Atlantic.” Belmokhtar and Ould Amer are said to have ceded control of al-Murabitoun to another leader. Although he has not been named, reliable sources indicate that the new commander has fought against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the 1980’s and the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in the 2000’s. Reports also indicate that unlike the leaders of most of the armed organizations in the region, this new leader may not be Algerian.
The merger between the two groups was first reported by ANI, which has long been a reliable source of information pertaining to jihadist activities in West Africa. In an excerpt of the group’s statement, Belmokhtar indicates that he decided not to assume the leadership of al-Murabitoun in order to “empower a new generation of leaders.” Further excerpts of al-Murabitoun’s first statement also threaten France and its allies in the region and call upon Muslims to target French interests everywhere. The document states that “we say to France and its allies in the region, receive the glad tidings of what will harm you, for the mujahideen have gathered against you and they pledged to deter your armies and destroy your plans and projects. By the grace of Allah, they are more firm and strong in your face, and your new war only increased their certitude, resolve and determination.”
Previously believed to have been killed, Belmokhtar is a one-eyed Algerian former commander of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). In 2003, he was designated a foreign terrorist by the United States, with the State Department offering a US $5 million reward for information that would lead to his capture. He broke away from AQIM in 2012 in a bid to form a new group that would expand its beliefs of forming an Islamist state. In March of this year, it had been reported that he was killed in action in northern Mali. Although the reports of his death were announced by the Chadian military, they were never confirmed by France or the United States. Currently Belmokhtar remains at large. He is believed to be the mastermind behind January’s siege of an Algerian gas plant in which thirty-eight hostages were killed. MUJAO is though to be led by Mauritanian ethnic Tuareg Ahmed Ould Amer, who goes by the nom de guerre “Ahmed Telmissi.” The group also broke away from AQIM in mid-2011 with the apparent goal of spreading jihad into areas outside of AQIM’s scope. It was one of a number of Islamist groups that occupied northern Mali last year and was responsible for imposing a strict interpretation of Islamic Sharia Law.
Despite previously separating themselves from AQIM, citing leadership issues and desires of expanding their control, both groups continued to cooperate and fight alongside AQIM fighters in Mali and in other regions of West Africa. In late May of this year, the two groups targeted a military barracks in Agadez, Niger and a uranium mine in Arlit which supplies French nuclear reactors. The attack in Agadez was reportedly executed by a five-man suicide assault team which resulted in the deaths of at least twenty people. The attack in Arlit was reportedly carried out as a means of attempting to cripple France. Shortly after the attacks, Belmokhtar indicated that the incidents had been carried out as a form of avenge for the death of Abdelhamid Abou Zeid, an AQIM commander who was killed by French forces in northern Mali earlier this year. Consequently this merger comes with minimal surprise as MUJAO and Belmokhtar’s forces have already forged a working relationship. Thursday’s announcement just makes this relationship official. However many questions still linger as to whether such a merger will have any impact within a region that continues to be rocked by instability.
On the one hand, in examining Mali, the country no longer seems to be the central hub it was a year ago. The recently held peaceful presidential elections, which resulted in the election of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, coupled with 12,600 UN troops that are stationed on the ground, are a move to fill the security vacuum and to stabilize the country by uniting the north and south. However when looking at the greater Sahel region, many vulnerabilities continue to exist in a region of Africa that is sparsely populated and prone to poverty, food insecurity and estrangement from regional governments. The Sahel region continues to see high threats of kidnap and terrorist attacks. These threats, which were further heightened following the French military intervention in Mali, are highly likely to occur again. Furthermore, there are currently at least thirteen hostages being held in the Sahel and surrounding regions, which includes Algeria, Cameroon, Libya and Nigeria. Over the years, many have been killed and threats of kidnappings, especially of French and Western nationals, will likely continue. The surrounding areas also contain threats that may lead to a further destabilization of the region. Terrorist groups such as Boko Haram in Nigeria are waging their own wars at home. While reports that Boko Haram militants may have been trained by al-Qaeda-linked operatives in Mali further fuels the notions the movement of terrorists in the Sahel and surrounding regions continues to be unaffected. The militant groups now joining forces have gained reputations for evading capture and continuing to launch attacks despite security forces’ concentrated efforts to stop them.
On the other hand, given the long history of al-Qaeda-linked forces making and breaking alliances, the real question remains whether this official union will change anything. Many doubt that al-Murabitoun can bring anything new to the table and that instead this could signify another reorganization in an attempt to strengthen the group, remain relevant and give it a new and better direction. The timing of this announcement is also critical as it comes just two weeks after elections were held in Mali and a new President was selected. This alliance may be an attempt to remind regional actors and international officials that while Mali has won a victory by carrying out successful elections, the war is far from over.
Vote-Counting Begins In Mali
August 12, 2013 in Mali, SomaliaVote-counting in Mali is currently underway just one day after a presidential election run-off took place, which is expected to provide a fresh start to the troubled West African state. The election, the first to occur since 2007, is seen as crucial in order to unlock more than US $4 billion in aid.
On Sunday, people throughout Mali made their way through heavy rain in order to vote in the presidential run-off that is aimed at restoring democracy and stability after more than a year of turmoil. An electorate of seven million had the choice between former premier Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, who won 40% during the first round of voting, and ex-finance minister Soumaila Cisse, who won nearly 20% of the vote. Mali’s 21,000 polling stations opened at 08:00 GMT and closed at 18:00 GMT.
Louis Michel, the head of the European Union’s election observation mission, has indicated that there was “absolutely nothing doubtful or suspicious to report” and that voting had taken place “in good conditions, in a serene, quiet atmosphere,” adding that “whoever is elected will be elected with democratic legitimacy. That is my belief.”
The interim government has until this Friday to make the results of the run-off public, however some observers expect that an announcement may be made sooner. Early signs have indicated that Mr. Keita will likely win the elections. The country of more than 14 million remains the continent’s third-largest gold producer however its US $10.6 billion economy contracted by 1.2 percent last year as widespread poverty contributed to the unrest in the northern regions of the country last year.
Meanwhile in Somalia, reports have emerged that al-Shabaab militants have stolen £480,000 (US $750,00) worth of British government-funded humanitarian materials in supplies. The supplies were in warehouses and were captured during a raid by al-Shabaab militants in 2011 and 2012, however no information on what particular supplies were stolen has been released. The theft, which was revealed in the fine print of the Department for International Development’s (DFID) annual accounts, is likely to fuel concerns pertaining to how Britain is spending its foreign aid at a time when the country is experiencing budget cuts at home.
The accounts describe the “theft between November 2011 and February 2012, by al-Shabaab in southern Somalia, of DFID funded humanitarian materials and supplies from the offices and warehouses of partner or organizations, to which DFID had provided funding to deliver projects and programmes.” The accounts further note that “the DFID’s partners had no prior warning of the confiscations being carried out and therefore had no time to prevent the loss by relocating goods.” The loss, which comes out of more than £80 million of aid that was allocated to Somalia in 2012 – 2013, appears in this year’s accounts because the investigation was only completed in the past twelve months.
In response to the reports, Gerald Howarth, a lawmaker in Prime MInister David Cameroon’s Conservative party, has stated that the theft raised concerns about how this money was being spent, indicating that “there is a huge public concern at the relentless increase in overseas aid. Incidents like this, where British taxpayers‘ money is diverted into people fighting agains us, re not acceptable.”
A spokesman for the DFID has stated that there are always risks with working in unstable countries such as Somalia, but that it was doing everything it could to stop such thefts from occurring. A statement released by the DFID indicated that the company “works in some of the most dangerous places in the world, including Somalia, because tackling the root causes of poverty and instability there ensures a safer world and a safer UK.” The statement further added that “working in conflict-affected and fragile states carries inherent risk. DFID does all it can to mitigate against this but, on occasion, losses will occur.”
Parliamentary Elections Go Ahead in Togo
July 26, 2013 in AfricaOn Friday, officials in Togo began to tally up the votes after long-delayed parliamentary elections were held on 25 July. On Thursday, voters had queued up in order to cast their ballots in what officials have indicated were mainly peaceful elections. The head of the African Union’s observer mission, Guinea’s Prime Minister Kabine Komara, has indicated that the election process seemed smooth throughout the early hours of voting. The polls come after months of protests which were backed by the opposition in its bid to weaken the ruling family’s decades-long grip on power. Final results, along with a breakdown of the number of seats won by each party in the proportional electoral system, are not expected for another several days. However the vote is seen as an indication of what will likely happen when presidential elections are held next year, with some experts indicating that yesterday’s elections could expose weaknesses in the grip of the Ganssingbe family which has ruled the country for more than four decades.
While the African Union observer mission indicated that the election process seemed smooth, roughly two hours after polling stations were opened on Thursday, the most prominent opposition leader in the West African nation voiced his concerns over some initial issues however he noted that he was confident that the vote would be clear. Jean Pierre Fabre, who is running for a parliamentary seat, indicated that several polling stations had opened after the agreed time of 0700 GMT and that ballot materials had not been delivered on schedule at a number of ballot stations. Crowds of several hundred had built up at some of the polling stations, with some complaining that their names could not be found on the voter lists.
The polls mark the latest step in the country’s transition to a democracy after Gnassingbe Eyadema’s rule from 1967 to his death in 2005, when the military installed his son Faure Gnassingbe as president. Since 2005, Faure Gnassingbe has won elections in 2005 and 2010 however the opposition has denounced both winnings as fraudulent. Thursday’s elections are the first legislative polls to occur since 2007, when President Gnassingbe’s party won 50 of the 81 seats. This time, ninety-one seats will be decided. Since 2007, the polls have been rescheduled twice as mediators struggled to bring the government and opposition to an agreement. A total of 1,174 candidates are standing in Thursday’s elections, with 159 women among them.
Fighting Erupts in Guinea While the Body of a French Hostage is Flown Home
July 17, 2013 in Africa, Guinea, MaliAt least sixteen people have been burned alive or hacked to death with machetes, while dozens more have been wounded after two days of ethnic clashes took place in Guinea. Meanwhile in Mali, the body of French hostage Philippe Verdon, who was kidnapped in Mali in 2011 and found dead several weeks ago, has been flown back to Paris on Wednesday after tests confirmed his identity.
The violence in the West African state broke out in the southern forest region early on Monday when petrol station guards from the Guerze tribe in the town of Koule beat to death an ethnic Konianke youth whom they had accused of stealing. Fighting rapidly spread to the nearby provincial capital of N’Zerekore, which is located 570 kilometers (350 miles) southeast of Conakry. Several homes have been destroyed as a result of the fighting. According to Alert Damatang Camara, who is a government spokesman, “the violence recorded since Monday in Koule, and then in N’Zerekore, has left 16 people dead and some 80 wounded.” He further indicated that security forces have been deployed “en masse” to the affected regions and that calm was beginning to return to the streets. During a televised address to the nation, Guinea’s President called for calm and unity and has promised to bring those behind the violence to justice.
A number of witnesses have reported that members of the Guerzes and Koniankes tribes have been attacking one another with machetes, axes, sticks, stones and firearms, and that some of the houses and cars in the region had been set on fire. Communal violence has been common in the region, which is located near the border with Liberia, where clashes between the two tribes regularly break out over religious and other grievances. The indigenous Guerze are mostly Christian or animist, while the Konianke are Muslims who are considered to be close to Liberia’s Mandingo ethnic community. During Liberia’s civil war, which concluded in 2003, rebels fighting the forces of then-president Charles Taylor drew much of their support from the Mandingo community. The Guerze, who are known as Kpelle in Liberia, were generally considered to be supporters of forces who were loyal to Taylor who was jailed last year for “aiding and abetting” war crimes in neighbouring Sierra Leone.
According to sources on the ground in Paris, France, relatives and loved ones of Mr. Verdon gathered in a private room at Paris’s Charles de Gaulle airport in order to retrieve the body, which was flown back on an Air France plane that landed around 0700 GMT. The French foreign ministry had announced on Sunday that Mr. Verdon’s body had likely been found at the beginning of July. This is months later after the 53-year-old’s captors had announced in March that they had killed him, however at the time, officials in Paris had never confirmed his death. On Tuesday, the French president’s office confirmed that the body found in northern Mali was that of Mr. Verdon, however no information surrounding the details of his death have been released. An autopsy has been scheduled in order to determine exactly how he died. Mr. Verdon was known to have suffered from an ulcer and tachycardia when he had left for Mali in 2011. According Pascal Lupart, head of a support committee for Mr. Verdon, “for us, its possible that Philippe died because of his illnesses and that AQIM used this and staged a killing.”
