Iraqi Parliament Selects New Prime Minister

On 11 August, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was effectively deposed. Early in the day, the Iraqi National Alliance, a coalition of mostly Shi’a political parties, nominated deputy parliament speaker Dr. Hadier al-Abadi to become the new Prime minister. Shortly after newly elected President Fouad Massoum asked officially gave al-Abdadi his first responsibility as prime minister: to form a new government within the next 30 days. Nouri al-Maliki has declared that he will fight the decision, stating that Abadi’s nomination has no legitimacy. He called the move “dangerous violation” of the constitution, and vowed to “fix this mistake.” Under the Iraqi constitution, the president must appoint the chosen nominee of the largest parliamentary bloc. Al-Abadi comes from the same political party as Maliki. Immediately prior to the decision, Maliki had ordered his elite army units into the streets of Baghdad in a show of force. However, a senior government official said commanders of military forces that Maliki deployed around Baghdad had pledged loyalty to President Fouad Masoum, and agreed to to respect his decision to ask Abadi to form a new government. On 12 August, a statement appeared on Maliki’s official website ordering security forces not intervene in the conflict over who will be the next prime minister. Rather, they should remain focused on defending the country. Maliki has been widely derided for implementing pro-Shi’a sectarian regulations that have widely disenfranchised and alienated Sunni Muslims in Iraq during his eight-year tenure. It is believed that his sectarian policies spurred the actions of ISIS, the terrorist organisation that has taken over vast swaths of Iraqi land and Syria in recent months. Despite Maliki’s claims that the ouster was illegitimate, Iraqi media channels have already widely welcomed al-Abdadi, with some pro-Sunni stations criticising his refusal to step-down for the sake of the nation. Beyond Iraq, the appointment of al-Abadi has been met with welcome by many among the international community. Jordanian media has issued congratulations to the new Prime Minister. EU foreign policy Chief Catherine Ashton called Abadi’s appointment a “positive step”. US Secretary of State John Kerry stated that Washington is prepared to “fully support a new and inclusive Iraqi government”, urging Abadi to quickly form a fully functional cabinet: “We are prepared to consider additional political, economic and security options as Iraq’s government starts to build a new government.” In Iran, a nation that was once considered an ally by al-Maliki, the decision to remove him from office has been regarded as a positive one. Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has offered his congratulations to al-Abadi and the Iraqi people. Shamkhani is a close ally of Iranian President Rouhani, and a representative of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Iranian recognition of Abadi appears to eliminate Maliki’s main avenue of support of regaining power. Iran perceives ISIS as a threat to their national security. The Iranian government believes that in order to quell the spread of the terror group, Iraq must have a unity government, which Maliki has openly opposed. Abadi, a British-educated electrical engineer in his mid 60s, also served as an intermediary between diplomats and Western journalists in Iraq. He was exiled to England during the reign of Saddam Hussein when the Dawa party which he represented was banned from the country. He is perceived as a considerably more moderate and unifying figure than his predecessor. In order to prove his ability to form a unity government, he must reintroduce Sunni and Kurdish officials into senior positions in the Iraqi government and military. Under Maliki’s regime, all senior positions were held by Shi’a officials. He has little time to not only implement a unity government, but to also raise morale in the nation, as Sunni Muslims and other denominations will want to see immediate change, and the Kurds are pushing ever harder for an autonomous state. As one writer put it, the threat to Iraq is “existential, not political.”

President Goodluck Jonathan Cancels Trip to Chibok

Despite announcing earlier this week that he would visit the town where more than 200 schoolgirls were abducted, Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan confirmed Friday that that he has cancelled his trip to Chibok, a move that is likely to anger the Nigerian public and further derail his potential re-election bid.

Sources earlier this week indicated that President Goodluck Jonathan would stop in Chibok, located in north-eastern Nigeria, while on his way to a conference in France, which is set to focus on the on going threat from Boko Haram militants.  However on Friday, a senior government official indicated that the president, who is under pressure over his government’s failure to rescue the girls, will fly directly to Paris, citing that the visit was called off for security reasons.  The president will take part in a summit in Paris convened by French President Francois Hollande.  The leaders of Nigeria’s neighbours, including Benin, Cameroon, Chad and Niger, are also scheduled to attend the summit on Saturday, which will also include representatives from the EU, UK and US.  A statement released by the French President’s office indicated that the delegates will “discuss fresh strategies for dealing with the security threat posed by Boko Haram and other terrorist groups in west and central Africa.”  The cancellation of this visit also underlines just how fragile the security situation is in the north-east despite the on-going military operations, which were launched last May.  It is also likely to result in further criticism of the president.

The cancellation of the President’s visit to Chibok comes days after the Nigerian government ruled out negotiations with Boko Haram, over a possible release of prisoners.  At a meeting on Wednesday, UK Africa Minister Mark Simmonds indicated that President Jonathan had “made it very clear that there will be no negotiation.”

State of Emergency Extended

On Thursday, the lower house of Nigeria’s parliament, the House of Representatives, approved an extension of the state of emergency in the north eastern states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe.  Earlier this week, President Jonathan had requested a six-month extension, calling the security situation in the region “daunting” and stating that he was concerned by the mounting loss of life among civilians.  The state of emergency, which still needs to be approved by the Senate, effectively provides the military with widespread powers such as detaining suspects, imposing curfews and setting up roadblocks.

The announcement of the extension of the state of emergency came as reports of fresh attacks by suspected Boko Haram militants emerged on Thursday.  Witnesses have reported that there had been explosions in Gamboru Ngala, where some 300 people were killed last week in a massacre that has been blamed on Boko Haram militants.

Top Diplomats Meet in Paris to find Solution To Ukrainian Crisis

As top diplomats are seeking to find a solution to the crisis in Ukraine as they meet in Paris, France to hold high-level talks with both parties, Russia announced on Wednesday that it could not order “self defence” forces in Ukraine’s Crimea region back to their bases.  With the crisis in Ukraine an on-going matter, Russia and the West are locked in the most serious confrontation since the conclusion of the Cold War.

Meeting in Paris 

Russia’s Foreign Minister Serge Lavrov has confirmed that he will hold talks with his counterpart from the United States, along with key European Union states, in order to try and resolve the crisis in Ukraine.

Mr Lavrov will meet on Wednesday with US Secretary of State John Kerry and count parts from the United Kingdom, Germany and France on the side-lines of a long-planned conference on Lebanon which will be held in Paris.  Speaking before meeting with US Secretary of State John Kerry, and other Western ministers, Russian Foreign Minster Sergei Lavrov repeated Moscow’s assertion that the troops that have seized control of the Black Sea peninsula are not under Russian command.  Asked whether Moscow would order forces in Crimea back to their bases, the Russian Minister indicated that “if you mean the self-defence units created by the inhabitants of Crimea, we give them no orders, they take no order from us,” adding “as for the military personnel of the Black Sea Fleet, they are in their deployment sites.  Yes, additional vigilance measures were taken to safeguard the sites….We will do everything not to allow any bloodshed.”

Although the gathering in Paris is seen as a chance to test the waters for a dialogue about Ukraine, UK Foreign Secretary William Hague has indicated that the Russians have already failed to appear at one meeting with Ukrainian officials in Paris and that he is “not optimistic” that any further progress will be achieved.  In reference to a threat of sanctions by the US and the EU, Hague indicated that “if we cannot make progress on that course there will be costs and consequences.”   Russia did not attend a meeting with Kerry, Hague and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsia of the so-called Budapest group created to assure Ukraine’s security after it abandoned nuclear weapons in 1994.  However both Kerry and Hague have indicated that they will try to bring the Russian and Ukrainian minister together.

NATO and Russia are also due to hold parallel talks in Brussels amidst concerns that a standoff between Russian and Ukrainian forces in Crimea could still spark violence, or that Moscow could also intervene in the Russian-speaking eastern region of Ukraine.

The West is pushing for Russia to return troops to their barracks, to accept international monitors in Crimea and Ukraine and to negotiate a solution to the crisis through a “contact group,” which will most likely be under the auspices of a pan-European security body.  Officials from France have also indicated that European Union leaders meeting in Brussels on Thursday could also decide to place sanctions against Russia if there is no “de-escalation” by then.

Last year, under great pressure from Russia, Ukraine pulled out of a trade deal with the EU.  This move effectively sparked months of protests in Kiev and on 22 February 2014, Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovich, a Russian ally, was ousted from power.  Russia currently occupies Crimea, where it’s Black Sea Fleet is based, a move which has raised international tensions and provoked sharp falls in financial markets

Security Update: South Sudan and Nigeria (23 December 2013)

On Monday, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir confirmed that South Sudanese troops are preparing to enter the rebel-held town of Bor.  Earlier, the South Sudanese army confirmed that Bentiu, the capital of oil-rich Unity State, had been taken by fighters supporting former vice-president Riek Machar.   Meanwhile in northern Nigeria, a Lebanese businessman has been kidnapped.

President Kiir told Parliament that the army was “ready to move,” adding that the counter-attack had been delayed in order to allow US citizens to be airlifted out.  Bor, which lies in the state of Jonglei, was captured by rebels loyal for former vice president Riek Machar last Wednesday.  During his address to Parliament, the President repeated his offer to hold talks with Mr. Machar, stating that a delegation of East African foreign minister had offered to mediate the talks.  However he did note that Mr. Machar would have “to come to the table without any precondition.”

The mounting ethnic violence over the past week has raised fears that clashes may turn into a civil war.  While the president, a member of the majority Dinka ethnic group, has accused Mr. Machar, a member of the Nuer community, of attempting a coup, the former vice president has denied these claims.  Mr. Machar has also since indicated that the president has been carrying out a purge of his rivals.

Over the past week, United Nations humanitarian staff in South Sudan have reported numerous blood scenes and summary executions.  A spokesman for the UN in the capital, Juba, has also indicated that UN compounds throughout the country were sheltering more than 40,000 civilians.  Joseph Contreas further added that the UN was “doing everything possible to remain in touch with key leaders and seek a peaceful way out of this conflict.”

A statement released by UN humanitarian co-ordinator Toby Lanzer has indicated that an estimated 17,000 people had sought protection in the UN peacekeeping base in Bor.  Mr. Lanzar further noted that aid workers are under intense pressure, with humanitarian compounds looted in several locations, adding “we are looking at a massive increase in need and I am engaging all parties to ensure that civilians are protected and that aid workers are able to access people who need our help.”

Over the weekend, the US deployed extra troops in order to help evacuate Americans and other foreigners.  In Bor, three US military aircraft were fired upon on Saturday, forcing officials to abort the evacuation.  On Sunday, the US re-entered using civilian US and UN helicopters.  The UK is deploying, what is expected to be a final plane, on Monday to help Britons flee South Sudan.

Meanwhile in Nigeria, gunmen have kidnapped a Lebanese businessman in the northern Nigerian city of Kano after militants stormed his factory.

Police spokesman Magaji Majiya has indicated that police have launched a manhunt to arrest the attackers, adding that a man and woman were wounded when the militants opened fire as they took the man hostage.  On the grounds sources have reported that police in Kano have mounted checkpoints throughout the city as they attempt to track down the hostage takers.

Police officials have identified the Lebanese national as Hassan Zein.  Zein, the Managing Director of M.C. Plastic Company, was seized in the early hours of Monday from the company’s premises in the Sharada Industrial area of Kano.   So far no group has claimed responsibility for the kidnapping.  While officials have indicated that there are suspicions that militant Islamists carried out the attack, the possibility that a criminal gang took the man hostage for ransom cannot be ruled out at this time.

This is not the first reported incident of a foreigner being kidnapped in the northern town of Kano.  Last year, a German engineer, Edgar Fritz Raupach, was abducted in Kano by militant Islamists.  He was later killed during a security force operation to rescue him.  While it was not clear which group had abducted Mr. Raupach, a video purported to be from al-Qaeda’s North Africa wing, AQIM, demanded at the time that Germany free a woman jailed on terror charges in return for his release.

Two US Sailors Freed; US State Department Designates Boko Haram Terrorist Group

Two American sailors, who were kidnapped off a vessel in the Gulf of Guinea last month, have been freed.  A spokeswoman for the US State Department has confirmed that the two men, a captain and chief engineer of the US-flagged C-Retriever oil supply ship, were freed over the weekend, adding that the men are safe and healthy and currently on their way home.  Although Jen Psaki provided no further details pertaining to the release of the two hostages, reports have indicated that the two men were freed after negotiations successfully yielded a ransom payment.  Details of the ransom payment are unknown.

The C-Retriever was stormed by armed men on 23 October near the coastal town of Brass, in Nigeria’s Bayelsa State.  The captain and chief engineer, whose names have been withheld for privacy reasons, were then kidnapped by the attackers.  Last week, the 222-foot oil supply ship, which is owned by a Louisiana firm, was tracked near the outskirts of the Port of Onne, where it sat in the water apparently abandoned.  So far, no group has claimed responsibility for the attack.

Meanwhile the US State Department has designated Nigeria’s Boko Haram and Ansaru militant groups as foreign terrorist organizations, a move that is likely to be welcomed by the Nigerian government who has been battling Boko Haram for years.  Officials at the State Department have described the move as “an important” step in helping Nigeria “root out violent extremism.”   Up to now, the Obama administration had refused to designate the militant group as a terrorist organization, fearing that the title would provide Boko Haram greater legitimacy within global jihadi circles.  While the State Department designated three alleged Boko Haram leaders as terrorists, it did not declare the militant group a terrorist organization.  With terrorist splinter groups threatening the Sahel region, one of the reasons behind the US decision to designate Boko Haram as a foreign terrorist organization is the fact that US officials have cited links to al-Qaeda’s affiliates in West Africa and to extremist groups in Mali.  In turn, while Boko Haram was initially viewed as an organization which only posed a domestic threat, another reason why the US had not previously designated it as a terrorist organization, over the last three years, as its attacks have intensified, there have been signs that Boko Haram is now focusing on a more international agenda.

The move to designate Boko Haram and Ansaru as foreign terrorist organizations is significant as it effectively means that US regulatory agencies will be instructed to block all business and financial transactions with Boko Haram.  It will also become a crime under US law to provide material support to the group.  However it is unlikely that the US will attempt to identify Boko Haram’s financial backers, an undertaking which the Nigerian government has up to now failed to achieve.

Boko Haram, which began its insurgency in 2009, desires to impose Islamic law in northern Nigeria.  Since the beginning of its insurgency, the militant group has been blamed for thousands of deaths, targeting both the military and civilians.  The Islamist group is responsible for the 2011 bombing of the United Nation headquarters in Abuja.  The militant group, and other splinter terrorist groups, are seen as being the largest security threat in Nigeria.  Despite an ongoing military campaign, which was launched by President Goodluck Jonathan in May of this year, and which was recently extended for an additional six months, the militant group has continued to carry out its attacks throughout northern Nigeria.  In one of the most recent incidents, fighters dressed in military uniform killed nineteen motorists after blocking a highway in the northeast of the country.

Ansaru was formed in January 2012 however it only rose to prominence about six months later after a video was released in which the militant group vowed to attack Westerners in defense of Muslims worldwide.  While the group, which is based in Nigeria and seen as an off-shoot of Boko Haram, has had a short existence, it has nevertheless proved to be a threat, using dynamite to penetrate heavily-fortified compounds and taking foreigners hostage.

Two months after being formed, officials in the UK indicated that Ansaru’s militants had killed a Briton and an Italian hostage who had been kidnapped in the northwestern state of Sokoto.  In December 2012, following an attack on a well-guarded compound in the northern town of Rimi, Ansaru claimed responsibility for the kidnapping of a French national, Francis Colump.  It carried out a similar attack in February 2013 when seven foreign nationals were captured from a housing compound owned by a Lebanese construction company.

Tagged as: Abuja, al-Qaeda, Ansaru, Bayelsa State, Boko Haram, C-Retriever, Goodluck Jonathan, Gulf of Guinea, Mali, Nigeria, Port of Onne, State Department, UK, United Nations, US, West Africa