Tag Archives: United Nations

Breakthrough in Talks Over Legislative Elections in Guinea

A United Nations envoy has confirmed that Guinea’s government and opposition parties have made a breakthrough during talks that were held over the weekend, which could result in an end to the violent political demonstrations and pave the way for legislative elections to take place.  More than fifty people have been killed in the past three months in protests which have been organized by activists who accuse President Alpha Conde of preparing to rig the polls which are scheduled to take place on 30 June 2013.

Over the past weekend, President Conde’s government along with Guinea’s opposition parties have been meeting at UN-mediated talks which have focused on the organization of the long-delayed legislative elections.  Said Djinnit, a UN envoy who mediated the talks between the government and opposition parties in the coastal capital city of Conakry, indicated that the parties had made significant progress over their demands and that there was reason for hope.  Djinnit further indicated that in return for some guarantees, Guinea’s opposition parties have agreed to rejoin the electoral process and have dropped their demands for South African company Waymark, which was charged with updating the voter register, being replaced.  The opposition had initially accused the company of filling the electoral roll with the names of President Conde’s ethnic Malinke supporters.  However the company has denied these charges.  The opposition parties had also called for Guineans living overseas to be given the right to vote.  Djinnit has indicated that “regarding the vote of Guineans abroad, the presidential camp, which had reservations on the issue, have lifted their opposition.  It has agreed that Guineans living abroad could participate in elections.”  He further stated that decisions stemming from the talks could affect the date of the election.

While a spokesman for Guinea’s government could not be immediately reached for comment, a spokesman for the opposition noted that a minimum consensus had been reached and that the parties were waiting for concrete actions from both the government and Guinea’s electoral commission.  However Aboubacar Sylla, the opposition spokesman, did state that “we have reasons to be cautiously optimistic.”

A spokesman for UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has indicated that the UN Chief was “encouraged” by the progress that was made during the multi-party political dialogue.  In a statement that was released by the UN, his spokesperson stated that ‘the Secretary-General welcomes the constructive spirit in which Guinean parties have pursued the dialogue..” and that he “encourages the parties to build on this positive atmosphere in order to resolve outstanding issues and create the conditions for free, fair and peaceful legislative elections.”  The United States’ State Department has also welcomed the agreement that was reached between the political parties.

Guinea has been without a functioning legislature for years while the country’s economy remains to be at a standstill.  Following a military coup in December 2008, political instability in Guinea has deterred a number of investors, despite the country’s large deposits of iron ore, bauxite, gold and other minerals.  Although Guinea is the world’s largest exporter of bauxite, a metal that is used to produce aluminium, the country remains to be amongst the world’s poorest nations.  Investor confidence has been undermined by repeated clashes which have occurred since March of this year.

France’s “Mission Accomplished”: Why Peace in Mali is Still Far Away

“Mission Accomplished” – two words made famous by United States President George W. Bush when he proclaimed on 1 May 2003, after just six weeks of fighting, that the U.S. had successfully completed major combat in Iraq.  These two words would over time haunt the Bush administration as “mission accomplished” inevitably transformed into a guerrilla warfare on the streets of Baghdad and throughout the entire country.  Nearly a decade later, French President François Hollande used these exact words when on 2 February 2013, he proclaimed that France’s unilateral military intervention was successful and that French troops would begin to withdrawal from Mali in March.  While the scale of France’s “Operation Serval” is far smaller in comparison to the operations that took place in Iraq, there may be a number of parallels that can create comparisons amongst these two missions.

As the first suicide bomber struck in the town of Gao, and with the Islamist militants believed to be regrouping in Mali’s northern mountainous regions, restoring complete order in a country which for the past ten months has been chaotic, will prove to be a much tougher and complicated mission.  The second phase of France’s campaign, which will primarily focus on restoring territorial integrity throughout Mali, is already proving to be a far more complex challenge than bombing the hideouts of al-Qaeda-linked militants.  In order for this stage to be deemed “mission accomplished,” a more intricate process, composed of political, social and economic aspects, is necessary in order to reintegrate the north and the south and to bridge the cultural divides.

Amongst the issues that are necessary to take into account are the minimal credibilities and discipline within the Malian army, which has already proven to be a factor with the surfacing of allegations of human rights abuses.  In turn, political institutions throughout the country have atrophied, Tuareg separatism continues to pose a threat, there are continuing tensions between the north and south, which includes allegations of acts against human rights, there is a need to tackle a vast uninhibited area, which like in Afghanistan, could create a safe haven for these militants, and there is the rapidly growing refugee crisis that has not only impacted Mali, but its neighbouring countries as well.  Additionally, as France looks towards scaling back its operations within the country, officials in Paris will increasingly look towards the African security forces in order to replace them.  However it is highly unlikely that this new contingent will be fully prepared to take over from the French by March of this year.  Of the estimated 5,000 troops that are set to arrive in Mali, a contingent of only 2,500 soldiers, composed of troops from Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger and Nigeria, is currently on the ground.  This contingent is composed of English and French-speaking troops, all of which come from different military cultures and which hold different levels of experience.  This has sparked fears that the force may not have the capabilities that are necessary in order to root out the Islamist militants from their hideaways.  France has already suggested that a United Nations peacekeeping force be deployed to Mali in April, a sign that the French are well aware of the limitations of the African forces.

On a much larger scale, there is a need to tackle the fundamental regional issues that remain to be deep-seated.  A senior national security official within the Obama Administration has stated that “what we’re seeing across North Africa and parts of the Middle East is an extremist threat that is fueled by the reality of porous borders, ungoverned territory, too readily available weapons, increasing collaboration among some of these groups, and, in many cases, a new government that lacks the capacity and sometimes the will to deal with the problem.”  In the case of Mali, all of these points will have to be tackled in order to ensure that such a situation does not occur again.

Over the following weeks and months, French and African Forces will have to deal with what has been called the “vanishing enemy” – the hundreds of Islamist fighters who previously occupied the towns of Gao, Kidal and Timbuktu but which have now either disappeared into the vast desert territory or have blended in with either the general populations or the refugees that have been spilling into the neighboring countries.    There have already been  a number of reports that have indicated that some fighters have mixed in with the refugees who have been seeking safety in Mauritania.  In response to such reports, Algeria has reinforced its border security in an attempt to prevent militants from crossing over.  Chadian troops have also begun to withdrawal from Kidal, and have moved towards the mountainous regions which border Algeria, as intelligence reports have indicated that a number of Islamist militants have been regrouping in the region.

While progress is being made to rid the country of such militants, it remains to be unknown just how well these groups have prepared for such a rapid retreat.  Specifically, it will be necessary to examine whether or not these groups established other bases and supply lines and whether these locations have been identified and targeted by the forces.  Over the coming weeks, it will be necessary to cut off all the supply lines, which will be helped by Algeria’s reinforcement of its border security.  However there remains to be thousands of miles of unmarked, un-patrolled frontiers across Mali where terrorist groups can retreat and utilize as a means of reorganizing themselves.  Furthermore, while Algeria has the ability to secure its borders, the ability of authorities in Libya and Niger to prevent militants from crossing into their countries is limited at best.  A factor which could also prove to be critical as militants may cross the borders for safety amidst France’s air and ground attacks.  If their are large groups of Islamist terrorists remaining in the unmonitored regions of northern Mali, the next stage of battle will undoubtedly involve asymmetrical warfare, therefore the use of IED’s, assassinations of military and political officials as well as the use of suicide bombings.  Mali’s first suicide bombing may have already provided the French and African troops with a glimpse of the type of warfare that such militant groups are capable of orchestrating.

A second factor will be the gathering of intelligence which may prove to be difficult as northern Mali is an area that is larger than Spain and although a majority of the territory is vast open land, the Adrar de Ifoghas mountains are composed of a network of caves and passes, similar to those found in the Afghan Tora Bora region.  Moktar Bemoktar, whose followers carried out the attack on a gas facility in Ain Amenas, Algeria in January of this year, as well as Iyad Ag Ghali, a Tuareg and leader of Ansar Dine, are known to have an intimate knowledge of this region.  Over the past several years, Belmoktar has used his knowledge of this region in order to smuggle products and kidnapped civilians across the border.  A business which has aided him in funding the purchasing of weapons and the recruitment of his soldiers.  It is also currently believed that seven French hostages are being held in the mountainous region by his group and MUJAO.  While the French military intervention may have disrupted the traditional routes used by these militant groups, regional analysts believe that they will now focus on their remaining routes within the mountainous regions as a source to continue not only smuggling weapons into Mali, but as a mechanism to regroup and begin staging hit and run attacks in their former strongholds.  The US recent agreement with Niger to station surveillance drones may be a sign of the need to monitor the mountainous regions on a more regular basis.

Finally, the grievances amongst the ethnic Tuaregs which led to the division of Mali will have to be addressed and the humanitarian crisis will have to be tackled.  Negotiations with the Tuaregs, which will involve a greater measure of autonomy as well as the long-promised economic aid for the region, are essential in restoring stability in the north.  Although such negotiations will not occur over night, there appears to be a window of opportunity which may aid in speeding up the process.  This opportunity came with the split of Ansar Dine, an Islamist group which was formed in 2011 and which is led by Iyad Ag Ghali.  Although his whereabouts are currently unknown, his deputy, Alghabass Ag Intallah, has formed a splinter group known as the Islamist Movement of Azawad, which is prepared for negotiations.  In recent days, similar movements have been coming from the MNLA, demonstrating that they too are ready for a negotiations to occur.  Before the July 2013 elections, political dialogue amongst the varying groups will have to take place in Mali.

Once Africa’s success story, Mali must now look inwards in an attempt to reunite the north and south, however its future looks uncertain. While at the moment, the military intervention in Mali seems far from being a “mission accomplished,” stability in the country is necessary not only for the region, but for the entire International community.  Although Mali is not a regional powerhouse, it is very large, nearly twice the size of France, and has seven neighbours, whose long, poorly guarded borders can inevitably provide militants with the supply and escape routes that are necessary for their survival.  In turn, many of these border countries have already bared witness to violence, extremism and instability and they are ill-equipped in order to deal with the fallout if Mali was to collapse.  In the past Mauritania has had problems with militants who have been liked to al-Qaeda.  Niger, like Mali, has also seen frequent rebellions by ethnic Tuareg separatists.  Algeria also has many problems with al-Qaeda.  During the 1990’s, an Islamist insurgency claimed at least 100,000 lives.  Furthermore, a number of militant cells are known to be active in the eastern mountains and in the desert that borders with Mali.  In the past, a number of troop convoys have been ambushed.  The recent attacks in Ain Amenas indicates that this militant issue continues to be a problem in Algeria.  Within Mali itself, the vast and inhospitable desert has allowed groups with the local knowledge of the region to gain vast quantities of money through trafficking drugs, people, or other contrabands.  Therefore as the military campaign moves forward, developing events will continue to be closely monitored by capitals throughout West Africa, Europe and the United States.  The collapse of Mali and a possible exportation of the jihadist vision would threaten not only the neighbouring countries but would be a direct security threat to Europe.

Security Situation in Mali (7 February 2013)

Over the past forty-eight hours, Chadian soldiers have continued to secure the town of Kidal in Mali while France has urged the United Nations to send peacekeepers into Mali as French troops prepare to withdrawal from the mission by March 2013.  The security situation throughout the country remains to be volatile as counter attacks by Islamist rebels have indicated that while all of the cities in the northern region have been retaken, the rebels continue to have the capabilities of regrouping and staging hit and run attacks.  It is highly likely that such attacks and clashes will continue to occur during the transitional period as the rebels will attempt to use this moment to regain their access.

On Tuesday, an estimated 1,800 Chadian troops entered the northern town of Kidal in  order to continue securing the last major Islamist rebel stronghold.  Meanwhile reports have indicated that there are rising tensions in Mali as the French-led forces have been attacked by Islamist rebels in retaken territories, raising fears that a prolonged insurgency may occur.  French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian confirmed on Tuesday that rebels had hit back at troops with rocket fire in Gao, which is the largest northern city.

Meanwhile after announcing plans to start withdrawing its 4,000 troops from Mali in March, France has called on the United Nations to begin deploying its peacekeeping force in order to take over the mission.  Speaking to the media in Paris, Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius indicated that a peacekeeping force could be in place by April and that it would incorporate troops being deployed under the banner of the West African intervention force.   France wants the UN force to help stabilize Mali and to seek an end to the long-standing conflict between the ethnic Tuaregs and Arabs and the rest of the population.

So far, France has sustained one fatality, a helicopter pilot who was killed at the beginning of the mission.  The Malian army has indicated that eleven of its troops have been killed while another sixty have been wounded.  France’s Defence Minister has indicated that the monthlong French offensive has killed hundreds of Islamist fighters in Mali.

Security Situation in Mali: 19 – 20 January 2013

Malian forces have gained control of the central town of Diabaly, securing it from Islamist militants who have taken control of much of northern Mali.

Though this is a critical advance, the situation is confused at the moment. Parts of Diabaly’s population are sympathetic to the Islamists, and the rebels are suspected to be taking refuge in the forests beyond the city’s limits. French and Malian troops continue to monitor the town’s outksirts.

Mali was relatively stable, regarded as a “model democracy,” until the democratic government was overthrown in a 2012 coup.

Islamist rebels took advantage of the power vacuum to establish themselves in the north. Following the overthrow of the Qaddafi regime in Libya, Tuareg mercenaries returned to Mali, along with members of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). The militants imposed a strict interpretation of Sharia law which included banning music, smoking, drinking and watching sports on television. They also destroyed churches and damaged historic tombs and shrines.

On Saturday, demonstrators in Gao killed the chief of Islamic police, avenging the Islamists’ killing of a local journalist who was suspected of giving information to the Malian army.

France is considering sending up to an additional 2,500 in addition to the 2,000 troops currently in Mali. Of the estimated 5,800 African troops that have agreed to assist in Mali, only about 100 soldiers have arrived. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has reported that it has 3,300 regional troops on standby, and has urged the United Nations to provide immediate logistical and financial support for African troops. Canada and Britain are deploying military transport aircraft, and Russia has offered logistical support. While US policy prohibits direct military aid to Mali, until leaders are chosen through an election, the nation has dispatched 100 military trainers to six African nations who are sending troops.

Security Situation in Mali – 18 January 2013

Officials in Mali have indicated that following French airstrikes, Islamist fighters have withdrawn from two strategic towns located in the central region of the country.  Earlier in the day, the Malian army had announced that it had recaptured the town of Konna, which had initially triggered the French intervention after it was seized by rebels last week.  This  news was confirmed by residents in Konna who have reported that the Islamists fled the town when the Malian soldiers were deployed.  Furthermore, a security source has indicated that Malian soldiers were backed by French air strikes which eased their entry into the town.  Now reports have confirmed that another major town, Diabaly, has also been recaptured by the army.  On Thursday, reports had confirmed that French forces were bombing Diabaly and that fighting on the streets had continued until 03:00 GMT on Friday.  Since then, Diabaly Mayor Oumar Diakite has confirmed that Islamists were reported to be leaving the town and that currently  soldiers are in Diabaly in order to carry out security operations.  Although the towns are now under the control of the French and Malian armies, the area remains to be unaccessible to independent observers.  Aid group Doctors Without Borders has indicated that over the past week, it has been attempting to reach Konna however all the roads that lead to the are have been  closed off by the Malian army.  So far, no reports have been released as to when these roads will be re-opened.

The recapture of these two towns comes one day after the first one hundred troops of the African force landed in the capital city of Bamako.  The soldiers, who are from Nigeria and Togo, are part of a long-planned West African force that will join the fighting alongside the French and Malian armies.  In total, regional powers have pledged some 5,800 troops for the African military force.  Also on Friday, Spain  announced that it will provide military training personnel and a transport plane for the African troops however it did note that the country will not take part in the combat operations.  Over the past twenty-four hours, France has increased its troops in Mali to 1,800 while Nigeria has indicated that it will increased its forces to 1,200.  Furthermore, sources have indicated that a strong French contingent is currently at Segou, which is located north-east of Bamako.  They have been stationed their in order to guard a major bridge which crosses the Niger river.  The bridge is a strategic point as the rebels would have to cross it in order to threaten the capital city.

With the week-old intervention in Mali seeing some progress, the United Nation’s refugee agency, UNHCR, has highlighted its fears that over the coming months, the fighting could force some 700,000 people from their homes.  The crisis in Mali has already resulted in some 150,000 people leaving and moving to neighbouring countries.  A report by the UNHCR indicates that a further 400,000 people could flee Mali, while an estimated 300,000 people would be displaced within the country.