Tag Archives: United Nations

UK Drafts Syria UN Resolution as the World Debates the Possible Intervention

The United Kingdom announced this week that it will put forth a resolution to the United Nations Security Council on Wednesday “authorizing necessary measures to protect civilians” in Syria.  The move comes after intelligence reports indicated that chemical weapons were likely used by the Assad regime against civilians in Syria.  During an emergency cabinet meeting on Wednesday, the UK’s Prime Minister stated that the “world should not stand by” after the “unacceptable use” of chemical weapons by the Syrian government.  The Syrian government has denied any involvement in the suspected chemical attack which was carried out in Damascus on 21 August.  Instead, the regime blames the attack, which resulted in hundreds of people dying, on the opposition.

According to UK Prime Minister David Cameroon, the draft resolution, which will condemn the “chemical weapons attack by Assad,” will be put forward during a meeting of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council which will be held in New York later on Wednesday.  The Prime Minister also indicated that “we’ve always said we want the UN Security to live up to its responsibilities on Syria.  Today they have an opportunity to do that.”  If such an intervention is passed through a UN resolution, it is likely that the United States, France and the UK, along with other regional and international states, will be involved.  Furthermore, the UK, the US and France already have the necessary forces and military equipment stationed in the region which could be diverted to focus on the intervention in Syria.

The announcement of a possible intervention comes as a team of UN weapons inspectors resumed their work on Wednesday, investigating a suspected chemical weapons attack that occurred in Damascus on 21 August.  It currently remains unclear which districts the inspectors were scheduled to visit.  Their work had previously been called because of security concerns after they were shot at by unidentified snipers on Monday.  According to UN officials, one of their cars came under fire from unidentified gunmen as it crossed the buffer zone between the government and rebel-controlled areas.  With their work resuming, and with pressure for an international intervention mounting, Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has appealed for the team to be given “time to do its job,” citing that the UN inspectors would require another four days in order to complete their probe and that more time would be needed in order analyze their findings.  He also called on the Council’s permanent members, China France, Russia, the UK and the US, to act together, stating that “the body interested with maintaining international peace and security cannot be ‘missing in action’…the council must at least find the unity to act.  It must use its authority for peace.”  Meanwhile joint UN-Arab League envoy to Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, has stated that “it does seem clear that some kind of substance was used…that killed a lot of people” on 21 August.  However the envoy emphasized that any military action in Syria would require the UN Security Council’s authorization.

Possible Models for an Intervention in Syria 

Although limited information pertaining to the draft resolution is currently available, signals from Washington and London over the past few days suggest that military action against Syria is a strong possibility.  If the resolution is passed, over the following weeks, contingency plans will be drawn and potential target lists will be reviewed.  However a number of models for the possible intervention in Syria already exist, and will likely aid officials in narrowing down their options.

Codenamed Operation Desert Storm, also known as the Gulf War, the 1991 US-led global military coalition in Iraq was tasked with removing Iraqi forces from Kuwait.  Today, the mission is considered as a perfect case study in international intervention as it had clear and limited objectives, was fully anchored in international law and had an explicit mandate from the UN Security Council.  The Balkans during the 1990’s in which US supplied arms to the anti-Serb resistance in Croatia and Bosnia in defiance of a UN-mandated embargo.  A US-led air campaign against Serb paramilitaries was later carried out.

In December 1992, in response to a humanitarian disaster which was followed by the complete failure of the Somali state, the UN Security Council authorized the creation of an international force with the aim of facilitating humanitarian supplies.  Although initially the US was not involved, Americans gradually began to contribute to the operation in Somalia.

However the US military’s involvement without a clear objective culminated in the 1993 Battle of Mogadishu, also known as Black Hawk Down, in which eighteen US servicemen died on 3 – 4 October.  The tragedy had an immediate impact on American public opinion and resulted in US troops withdrawing from Somalia despite the civil war continuing.  While elements of this model were not used in any future interventions, the mission coupled with the lack of a clear objective has become a classic example of how not to conduct an international operation.

In 2011, France and the UK sought UN Security Council authorization for a humanitarian operation to save the residents of the rebel city of Benghazi from being massacred by forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.  Russia and China abstained by did not veto the resolution.  An air offensive continued until the fall of Gaddafi.

Western Military Options 

Western leaders will be faced with a number of military options that range from a short, sharp punitive strike against targets in Syria to a full-scale intervention to end the country’s civil war.  This option would involve both on-the-ground troops and air forces.  With long-lasting military commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan, coupled with the recent French-led military intervention in Mali, Western leaders will likely be inclined to focus on a short but deadly strike in Syria, fearing that a full-scale operation may result in Western forces being drawn into an open-ended military commitment.

An unclassified assessment of the military options as seen by the Pentagon was released in mid-July in a detailed letter to Senator Carl Levin that was written by Gen Martin Dempsey.  In the letter, Gen Dempsey lists a number of options that may be used if an intervention in Syria becomes possible.

The first option involves punitive strikes which would aim to get President Assad’s attention in a bid to persuade him not to resort to the use of chemical weapons in the future.  The attraction of this option is that it could be mounted quickly and would result in limited risk to the forces that are involved.  Possible targets in such a mission could include military sites that are linked closely to the region, including headquarters, barracks or elite units.  Although missile production facilities may be targeted, increased caution would have to be exercised if striking chemical weapons production facilities as any leakage of toxic chemicals could lead to significant damages in the area.  In turn, air defense sites and command centers may be hit as a demonstration of the West’s capabilities.

The second option would be to increase support for the Syrian opposition through training and advice.  This option would involve the use of non-lethal force and would effectively be an extension of some of the effort that has already been underway.  At its current scale, this option has already failed as the opposition has seen a growing number of divisions.  It is therefore unlikely that an increase in aid would have any effect.  A third option would be to establish a “no-fly zone,” that would effectively prevent the Syrian regime from using its air forces to strike rebels on the ground.  This option however would involve an increased risk to the US and allied aircraft and it would require the assembling of a significant force, one that would have to be maintained over time.

The fourth option is to focus on preventing the use of chemical weapons, which could be done by destroying portions of Syria’s stockpiles coupled with obstructing the movement of such weapons and seizing key installations.  This option however would result in an increased international involvement, including troops stationed on the ground.  This would also result in forces being stationed in Syria for an indefinite period.

While these are currently just options, and combinations of these varying options may be employed in Syria, what does remain clear is that if a resolution is passed by the UN Security Council, swift action is likely to occur.  Furthermore, the United States, France and the UK already have forces available in the area that can easily be prepared for a strike on Syria.

The US has four destroyers – USS Gravely, USS Ramage, USS Barry and USS Mahan – stationed in the eastern Mediterranean which are equipped with cruise missiles.  It also has two aircraft carriers, the USS Nimitz and the USS Harry S. Truman.  Cruise missiles could also be launched from submarines in the region.  If more firepower is needed, US airbases in Incirlik and Izmir, Turkey could also be used in order to carry out strikes.  The US Navy is reportedly re-positioning several vessels, including its four cruise missile-carrying destroyers and possibly a missile-firing submarine.

The UK’s Royal Navy’s response force task group, which includes helicopter carrier HMS Illustrious and frigates HMS Montrose and HMS Westminster, is also in the region on a previously-scheduled deployment.  An airbase in Cyprus may also be used while cruise missiles could be launched from a British Trafalgar class submarine.

France’s aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, is currently stationed in Toulon however Raffale and Mirage aircraft can operate from the Al-Dhahra airbase in the UAE.

Somali Federal Government Close to Marking its First Anniversary

Nearly one year into its mandate, the internationally-backed government in Somalia continues to struggle as it’s first anniversary in power approaches.  Al-Qaeda-inspired fighters, breakaway regions, coupled with rival clans and an ongoing climate of insecurity are the continuing threats that are jeopardizing the current government’s initiatives of concluding decades of anarchy.  Although the current government was the first to attain global recognition since the collapse of the hardline regime in 1991, and has since seen billions in foreign aid being poured into the country, officials within the country have struggled to maintain security.  Somalia has taken steps forward, particularly in the coastal capital city of Mogadishu, which is now busy with laborers rebuilding after al-Shabaab fighters fled their city two years ago.  However the situation throughout the rest of the country continues to remain bleak.  Outside the city, the weak central government continues to maintain minimal influence as much of the country is fractured into autonomous regions, including the self-declared northern Somaliland.  Earlier this month, the northeast region of Puntland cut ties with the central government while in the far south, self-declared leaders in the Jubbaland region continue to defy Mogadishu’s authorities.  In turn, multiple armies are fighting for control of southern Somalia, including rival warlords, Islamist extremists and a national army that is backed by the 17,700-strong African Union (AU) force.  Al-Shabaab too remain powerful, despite losing a string of key towns and leaders, the terrorist group continues to carry out attacks.  A suicide attack on a UN compound in June of this year demonstrated al-Shabaab’s ability to strike at the heart of the capital’s most secure areas.  Last month, a report released by the UN Monitoring Group estimated that al-Shabaab still have some 5,000 militants within its group and that they remain the “principal threat to peace and security in Somalia.”  Aid workers are struggling to contain a dangerous outbreak of polio, with the UN warning that while more than one hundred cases have been recorded, there are “probably thousands more with the virus.”  Compounding the problem is an almost impossible environment for aid workers.  In a major blow this month, Doctors Without Borders (MSF), an aid agency used to working in the world’s most dangerous places, pulled out of Somalia after two decades of providing aid in the country.  The agency cited that it could no longer put up with a “barrage of attacks,” including kidnappings, threats, lootings and murder.  Over a million Somalis are refugees in surrounding nations and another million are displaced inside the country, often in terrible conditions, with the UN warning of “pervasive” sexual violence.

Mali Set For A Second Round of Elections

Mali’s interim government announced on Friday that the country’s presidential elections will go to a second round, which has been scheduled for August 11, after no candidates succeeded in securing a majority in the landmark polls.

Figures for Sunday’s ballot, which were announced on live television, indicated that former Prime Minister Ibrahim Boubacar Keita came in first in Mali’s presidential elections, gaining 39.2 percent of the vote, however he will face his main rival, ex-Finance Minister Soumalia Cisse, who attained 19.4 percent of the vote, after he failed to secure an outright majority.  The results, which were announced by Territorial Administration Minister Moussa Sinko Coulibaly, are provisional and need to be confirmed by the West African nation’s Constitutional Court.  No candidate gained the fifty percent of the vote that is necessary in order to declare a victory.  Dramane Dembele, the candidate for Mali’s largest political party, the Alliance for Democracy in Mali, polled just 9.6 percent, taking third place.  Twenty-four other presidential candidates also took part in the polls.  It is widely believed that Mr. Dembele’s votes, along with those of fourth placed candidate Modibo Sidibe, which amount to a total of 14.5 percent, are likely to be transferred to Cisse in the run-off.

The announcement of a run-off will likely ease tensions which have risen since partial results earlier in the week gave Mr. Keita a large lead, indicating that he may win outright.  Although Sunday’s voting was carried out in a peaceful manner, and has been praised by observer missions, Mr. Cisse’s party on Wednesday has announced that the elections had been marred by what it termed as “ballot stuffing,” a form of electoral fraud in which people submit multiple ballots during a vote in which only one ballot per person is allowed.  Critics have argued that Mali, which was under pressure from the international community, may have rushed into the polls and risked mishandling the elections which would result in more harm than good.  However the country has been praised by the international community for running a transparent, credible and peaceful election.  In response to Wednesday’s allegations, acting President Dioncounda Traore and United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon have acknowledged that the vote may be “imperfect” in a country were 500,000 citizens continue to be displaced by a military coup that was launched in March 2012.  They have however urged Malians to respect the outcome.

Despite heavy security during voting, after the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa, one of the main armed groups in northern Mali, announced that it would “strike polling stations more than 3.5 million Malians cast their ballot, resulting in a 51.5 percent turnout which eclipsed its next best of 38 percent.  The turnout was also higher than the United States has managed in three of its presidential elections since 1984.  This high turnout has in effect demonstrated that Malians are ready to get back to the democratic government that was present prior to a military coup which led to armed Islamist militants taking over the northern regions of the country.

Mali’s Elections Declared Peaceful and a “Great Success”

France’s Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault declared on Monday that elections in Mali, which were held on Sunday, were a “great success” for the country and for France, which deployed its troops to the African nation earlier this year in order to dislodge Islamist militant groups from the northern regions of the country.  A high turnout has been reported despite renewed threats from Islamist groups that polling stations would be attacked.

Thousands of United Nations troops kept the peace on Sunday as Malians voted for a new president in a bid to usher in a new period of peace and stability in the first elections to be held since a military coup helped plunge the country into chaos.  Early indications showed a record turnout in much of the country, where voters were choosing from twenty-seven candidates, all of whom have pledged to restore peace.  Preliminary results collated by journalists in polling stations suggest that former premier Ibrahim Boubacar Keita had taken a clear early lead.  The unofficial projection may indicate that Mr. Keita, 69, could win the elections after the first round.  Amongst the twenty-seven candidates, Mr. Keita is seen as the frontrunner.  His main rival is thought to be Mr. Soumaila Cisse, a former chairman of the Commission of the West African Monetary Union.  An official announcement on the first-round results however is not expected until Friday.  If no candidate winds an overall majority, then a second round run-off between the top two contenders will be scheduled for August 11.

Voting stations opened on Sunday at 8:00AM (0800 GMT) under heavy security just one day after the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), which is one of the main armed groups linked to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), had threatened to “strike” polling stations.  However there have been no reports of any serious incidents occurring.  Voting in the northern regions of the country also passed off peacefully.  In Gao, which is northern Mali’s largest city, dozens of people lined up to vote in a school near Independence Square.  Meanwhile in Timbuktu, voting went ahead after initial problems with organizations, in which many voters were unable to find their names on the voting lists.  A large portion of the worry ahead of the polls had been focused on Kidal which was occupied for five months by Tuareg separatists until a ceasefire accord allowed the Malian army to provide security earlier this month.  In the run-up to the elections, ethnic clashes between Tuareg rebels and black African left four people dead.  In turn, gunmen, though to be from the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) kidnapped five polling officials 200 kilometers (125 miles) north of Kidal.

Explosion in Mogadishu’s Main Market Kills at least One Person

A car has exploded inside the main market in Somalia’s capital city after a hand grenade was thrown into a vehicle which was carrying four police officials.  At least one person has been killed in the attack, proving that despite recent infighting inside al-Shabaab, including the recent killing of top leaders, the extremist group is far from defeated and continues to be a severe threat to security within Mogadishu and the rest of Somalia.  The attack comes just one day after Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s plane caught on fire, forcing the president to route back to Mogadishu.

According to police officials, the four-wheel drive vehicle caught fire after a homemade bomb was detonated at about 10:30 local time (07:30 GMT) in the capital’s main market.  Sources on the ground have indicated that officers from a nearby police station rushed to the scene, shooting in the air in order to disperse the crowd.  A police source in Mogadishu has confirmed that four of the police officers inside the vehicle were wounded.  The market was partially closed for several hours while an investigation into the attacks is currently underway.

Al-Shabaab spokesman Abdulaziz Abu Musab has indicated that the militant group’s fighters had set off an improvised explosive device which targeted security officials in Mogadishu’s Bakara market.  The militant group has claimed to have killed three officials and wounded three others.

Business has been booming in Bakara market over the last two years.  Although insecurity remains to be an issue throughout the capital city there have not been many recent attacks in Bakara market.  The attack was carried out on the eve of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which is one of the busiest shopping days.  The Somali Federal Government has also warned the public that Islamist militants may increase their activity over the following month.  In previous years, the month of Ramadan, which is expected to start this week, has witnessed a surge in al-Shabaab attacks as gunmen have been urged to carry out attacks by their extremist preachers.  In a bid to topple the internationally-backed Somali government, al-Shabaab militants have launched a string of attacks, including a daylight attack last month on a fortified United Nations compound.

Meanwhile a plane carrying the Somali president was forced to make an emergency landing in Mogadishu after one of its engines reportedly caught fire.  A spokesman for President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed confirmed the incident, stating that it was not immediately clear why the engine had stopped working.  According to local reports, the President was not injured however fire fighters quickly arrived at the scene in order to put out the flames.  The President was flying to the South Sudan capital of Juba when his flight was forced to turn round.

News of the incident was first reported on a Twitter feed that is run by al-Shabaab, however the report did not indicated that the militant group had attacked the plane.