Tag Archives: UK

The Unexpected Consequences of Brexit

As the result of the referendum regarding the UK’s membership in the EU begin to sink in it seems more and more people are now at first coming to terms with what it actually means to exit the union. It’s been reported from different sources that supporters of the leave campaign, the so called “Brexiters”, are starting to have regrets. Regarding the many millions of pounds that were said, in the campaign, could be allocated to the NHS instead of the EU in case of an exit it has become clear now that such promises cannot be made. This is just an example, but there are many things that, in light of the actual outcome of the vote, look slightly different from what was described in the campaign. It seems twisted facts, statistics and general numbers were used in campaigns on both sides and it should be no wonder if people feel misinformed or even set up to cast their vote in a certain way. The fact that some who did vote for a Brexit feel disappointed with the outcome of the vote all the same, motivating this with that they didn’t think it would come to this, really says something about the seriousness with which voters have approached the referendum. It almost seems it has been thought of as a trial or a test run, something in which one can cast a vote just for amusement, and which, after it’s clear that the UK has decided to leave the EU, has alarm bells ringing everywhere. It is fair to say that to hold a referendum on things like this, to let the people have a voice, is consonant with democratic values. Of course it is, but then people also need to understand the power of every vote. Or is it that people were fully aware that the economy would take a hit in case of a Brexit, but decided to cast their vote in favour all the same because they simply thought things couldn’t get any worse, and that while things get harder short-term the economic situation will improve in the long run. Many voters from economically depressed regions of the UK, who actually receive significant amounts of EU aid, voted, as it turns out, in favour of a Brexit. The fact that the economy would be negatively affected is no surprise either, the IMF predicted this way in advance of 23 June. The outcome of the referendum is indeed hard to analyse, trying to make sense of peoples’ motivation to vote in certain ways can be quite confusing. One of the most important drivers has been the question of migration, the general desire of decentralised power and for the UK to control its own borders. It seems many voters have focused hard on that, and by doing so all the other effects a Brexit would have on the country have been forgotten. The UK is not the only country where people feel this way, but over the last couple of years across the European Union there has been talks about how the increasingly centralised political power is damaging the sovereignty of nation states. Using this as an argument in a campaign to leave the EU is putting fuel on a fire that is already burning quite bright. The question about an EU membership has been an emotional one for many, and it’s likely that a fair share of the “Brexiters” just want to go back to the way things were before, a form of status quo. Whether or not there will actually be any “old ways” to go back to is questionable though, not only because globalisation is really only going in one direction and it is increasingly harder for nations to get by on their own, but also because the UK itself will likely see internal changes. The decision to leave the EU has sparked up conversation about referendums of independence here and there, causing the United Kingdom to resemble more a soon to be broken kingdom. Nicola Sturgeon, first minister of Scotland, has said that it is highly likely a second referendum on independence for Scotland will be held amid the outcome of the Brexit referendum. Perhaps the result of such a vote would differ from the first one, held in 2014, as it was clear after 23 June that a majority of the Scottish voters were in favour of remaining in the EU. Sinn Fein also called for a referendum on independence form the UK for Northern Ireland, and a reunification with the 26 counties that make up the republic of Ireland. Considering all the potential negative consequences of the decision that may have been overlooked or at least given less consideration than necessary it is fair to expect that more and more people will have regrets in the near future. A petition to hold a second referendum had gathered millions of signatures in only a few days, and since it passed the minimum requirement of 100 000 signatures Parliament will consider it for debate. As David Cameron who promoted the stay campaign will step down as Prime Minister it will be his successor who will deal with the UK-EU divorce. In other words it will take time before article 50 will be applied and an application for an exit will officially be submitted. The question is whether there will be an opportunity in that time to grant the petitioners a second referendum. Perhaps the Britons will be offered a second chance at having a say in this since it is rather obvious many of the voter didn’t really know what it was exactly they were having a say in, or perhaps they have made their bed, so to speak, and now they’ll have to lie in it.

UK Votes Brexit

The world woke up on Friday to find out that the United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union (EU). As the markets tumbled overnight, with the pound plunging to record lows, uncertainty has taken over across the UK as British Prime Minister David Cameron announced that he will step down in the fall.

Polling stations opened on 23 June at 7 AM BST and closed at 10 PM BST. While polls indicated shortly after voting ended that the Remain camp was going to be the likely winner, overnight, as the vote count came in, it increasingly became apparent that Brits had voted to leave the EU. While Prime Minister David Cameron had urged the country to vote Remain, he was ultimately defeated by 52% to 48% despite London, Scotland and Northern Ireland all backing staying in. The referendum turnout was 71.8% – with more than 30 million people voting. It was the highest turnout at a UK-wide vote since 1992. UKIP leader Nigel Farage has hailed Thursday’s vote as the UK’s “independence day.” Mr Farage, who has over the past twenty years campaigned for Britain to leave the EU, told cheering supporters that “this will be a victory for ordinary people, for decent people.” Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has stated that the EU vote “makes clear that the people of Scotland see their future as part of the European Union” after all 32 local authority areas returned majorities for Remain. It is thought that Scotland may seek another referendum on separation from the UK.

The impact of the vote however has already been felt across the UK and on international markets, with the pound falling to its lowest level against the dollar since 1985 as the markets reacted to the results. Bank of England governor Mark Carney has stated that UK banks’ “substantial capital and huge liquidity” allowed them to continue to lend to businesses and households, adding that the Bank of England is ready to provide an extra £250 billion of support.

PM to Step Aside

Despite MP’s signing a letter overnight urging Prime Minister David Cameron to stay on whatever the result, on Friday morning the Prime Minister announced that he will step down by October after the UK voted to leave the EU. Speaking outside 10 Downing Street, he disclosed that he would attempt to “steady the ship” over the coming weeks and months, noting however that “fresh leadership” was needed. Flanked by his wife Samantha, Prime Minister Cameron indicated that he had informed the Queen of his decision to remain in place for the short term and then hand over to a new prime minister by the time of the Conservative conference in October. He has indicated that it will be for the new prime minister to carry out negotiations with the EU and invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which would effectively give the UK two years in order to negotiate its withdrawal.

Process to Leave the EU

While Britain is set to be the first country to leave the EU since its formation, the Leave vote does not immediately mean that Britain ceases to be a member of the 28-nation bloc.

That process could take a minimum of two years, with Leave campaigners suggesting during the referendum campaign that it should not be completed until 2020 – the date of the next scheduled general election. Once Article 50 has been triggered, a country cannot re-join the EU without the consent of all member states. Prime Minister Cameron previously indicated that he would trigger Article 50 as soon as possible after a Leave vote. However Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, who led the campaign to get Britain out of the EU, have disclosed that the prime minister should not rush into it. They have also indicated that they want to make immediate changes before the UK actually leaves the EU, such as curbing the power of EU judges and limiting the free movement of workers, potentially in breach of the UK’s treaty obligations. The government will also have to negotiate its future trading relationship with the EU and fix trade agreements with non-EU countries.

In Whitehall and Westminster, there will now begin the massive task of unstitching the UK from more than 40 years of EU law, deciding which directives and regulations to keep, amend or ditch.

EU Leaders Call for Stability and Solidarity in Wake of Vote

In the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU, shocked EU leaders have called for stability and solidary but also for change and reform. While President of the European Council Donald Tusk has stated that the remaining 27 members are determined to stay united, leaders like Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi have stated that the EU had to change and become “more human and more just.”

The European parliament has called for a special session for Tuesday 28 June to assess the vote, while foreign ministers of the six founding nations of the EU – Germany, France, the Netherlands, Italy, Belgium and Luxembourg – will met in Berlin on 25 June. Some leaders of EU member states, such as France’s Francois Hollande, held their own crisis talks on Friday. European parliament president Martin Schulz, president of the European Council Donald Tusk, European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte also went into emergency talks.

Seven Years On: Chilcot Iraq War Inquiry Report to Finally Be Released

The official inquiry into the Iraq War will be published on 6 July, less than a fortnight after the United Kingdom holds a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union (EU)

An announcement on the inquiry’s website indicated that “Sir John Chilcot and the Prime Minister have agreed that the Iraq Inquiry’s report will be published on Wednesday 6 July 2016.” The news comes after Prime Minister David Cameroon confirmed that the report would not be published until after the 23 June EU referendum, effectively prompting criticism that the delay was to avoid embarrassing key ‘In’ campaigners.

Tony Blair, who was the Labour Prime Minister at the time of the 2003 conflict, is expected to be criticised in the report, along with other members of his government. According to Sir John, the chairman of the inquiry which started work seven years ago, the 2.6 million word report has now been vetted for national security breaches “without the need for any redactions,” adding that British spies had completed the redaction process in mid-May. The delay however was branded a “stitch up” by anti-EU MPs. Former shadow Tory home secretary David Davis MP disclosed that the delay was based on the “thinnest of excuses” and that it looked like the publication of th report had been pushed back deliberately until after the EU referendum. He stated “at long last at least it will give some comfort and closure to the loved ones of the soldiers who made the ultimate sacrifice…Nevertheless it is still outrageous that this vital report should have been delayed for so long for seven years in total,” adding, “even worse it is now delayed on the thinnest of excuses until after the EU referendum and it is the most disgraceful thing of all to put the stitching up the referendum ahead of the rights of the families of the Iraqi war dead.” Matthew Jury, a solicitor who is acting for 29 families of British soldiers who died in the Iraq War, also stated that “if national security checking of the report took two weeks, the Families are bewildered by the Inquiry’s position that it needs another two months for the simple task of proofreading and formatting,” adding, “with all the resources of the state at its disposal, absent an explanation, the Inquiry’s claim that I needs until 6 July is simply not credible.”

Sir John however has defended the two month-delay, stating that “this will allow suitable time for the Inquiry to prepare the 2.6 million word report for publication, including final proof reading, formatting, printing and the steps required for electronic publications.” Sources close to the inquiry have reported that the timing of the referendum had no bearing on the publication date.

Families of British soldiers killed in Iraq have also condemned the decision to delay publication in order to allow for Sir John Chilcot’s report to be proofread and typeset as “appalling.”

US Intelligence Reports Indicate IS May Have Planted Bomb in Russian Plane

Days after authorities dismissed claims that the Islamic State (IS) Group brought down a Russian passenger jet on Saturday, a US intelligence analysis has now suggested that either the terror group or one of its affiliates planted a bomb on the plane. On Thursday, Britain also disclosed that there was a significant possibility that IS’ Egyptian affiliate was behind a suspected bomb attack on the Russian airliner that killed 224 people in the Sinai Peninsula. Russia, however, has indicated that such theories remain speculation at this stage, adding that only the official investigation can determine what occurred. Egyptian officials have also disclosed that so far, there is no indication that a bomb was to blame.

On Saturday, Metrojet Flight 9268 crashed in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula after breaking apart in mid-air. It was en route to St Petersburg from the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.

Multiple US officials have indicated that the latest US intelligence has suggested that the crash was most likely caused by a bomb that was planted on the plane by IS or an affiliate. One US official has indicted that intelligence also suggests that someone at the Sharm el-Sheikh airport helped get a bomb onto the plane. The official disclosed that “this airport has lax security. It is known for that…But there is intelligence suggesting an assist from someone at the airport.” Officials however have stressed that no formal conclusion has been reached by the US intelligence community and that US officials have not seen forensic evidence from the crash investigation.

Egyptian authorities who are leading the investigation into the crash, have not publicly responded to the US intelligence reports however since the crash, they have downplayed the possibility that this could have been a terrorist attack. Both Egypt and Russia have also stated that any theories are “speculation.”

In the wake of the crash, late on Wednesday, the UK announced that it has suspended flights to and from Sharm el-Sheikh. Ireland and the Netherlands have also banned flights to and from Sharm el-Sheikh. On Thursday, German airline Lufthansa announced that its subsidiaries Edelweiss and Eurowings are stopping all flights to Sharm el-Sheikh. On Saturday, the airline reported that its planes would no longer fly over the Sinai Peninsula. Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, has disclosed that Russian planes are still flying to and from Sharm el-Sheikh airport.

British Prime Minister David Cameron has indicated in the wake of the UK suspending flights to and from Sharm el-Sheikh, that it could be “some time” before all British tourists stranded in the tourist destination are home. Sources have disclosed that UK security experts are working with local authorities in order to get Britons home. Monarch airlines has reported that three “rescue flights” will operate on Friday. The airline further indicated that the flights would be in addition to its two scheduled flights. British Airways has also confirmed that it will operate two flights. There are an estimated 20,000 Britons in the Red Sea resort, including 1,000 residents. Extra UK consular staff have been drafted in to Sharm el-Sheikh aiport while a Ministry of Defense source has disclosed that a small team of UK military personnel are in the resort in order to advise Foreign Office officials and Department of Transport officials on logistics and security.

If a bomb did kill 224 passengers and crew aboard the Airbus A321, that would almost certainly undermine Egypt’s tourism industry, which is still recovering from years of political turmoil. On Thursday, security at Sharm el-Sheikh airport appeared to have been tightened, with security forces patrolling the terminals and not allowing drivers, tour agents or others to loiter while awaiting tourist arrivals.

Two British IS Fighters Killed in Drone Strike

On Monday 7 September, UK Prime Minister David Cameron announced that two British Islamic State (IS) fighters were killed by an RAF drone strike in Syria in an “act of self-defense.”

Speaking to MP’s Prime Minister Cameron disclosed that Cardiff-born Reyaad Khan, 21, was targeted in Raqa on 21 August and died alongside Ruhul Amin, another fighter who was from Aberdeen. The British Prime Minister disclosed that Khan had been plotting “barbaric” attacks at UK public events.   Despite MP’s previously ruling out UK military action in Syria, Cameron indicated that the strike was lawful and necessary.

On Monday, the Prime Minister reported that Khan was killed in a precision strike by a remotely piloted aircraft, “after meticulous planning,” while he was travelling in a vehicle, adding that the legality of the strike had been approved by the attorney general. In his statement to the Commons, Cameron disclosed “my first duty as Prime Minister is to keep the British people safe… There was a terrorist directing murder on our streets and no other means to stop him. This government does not for one moment take these decisions lightly…But I am not prepared to stand here in the aftermath of a terrorist attack on our streets and have to explain to the House why I did not take the chance to prevent it when I could have done.” Shortly after his comments, acting Labour leader Harriet Harman urged the government to publish the legal advice, stating, “why didn’t the Attorney general authorize this special action rather than merely ‘confirming there was a legal basis for it’?”

While two years ago, MP’s rejected possible UK military action in Syria, in September 2014, they approved British participation in air strikes against IS targets in Iraq only. However, officials indicated at the time that the UK would “act immediately (in Syria) and explain to Parliament afterwards” if there was “a critical British national interest at stake.”