Tag Archives: Iraq

Questions Surface About Whether Turkey Really Gets Its Oil from IS

In early December, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that the decision by Turkey to shoot down a Russian military aircraft in late November was “dictated by the desire to protect the oil supply lines to Turkish territory.” His remarks, which occurred at a news conference on 1 December, effectively implied that the Turkish government was not only complicit in the smuggling of oil produced in areas of Syria that are controlled by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, but that it was also so heavily committed to this trade that it was willing to provoke an international crisis in a bid to protect it.

While it is doubtful whether President Putin genuinely believes this accusation, it has raised the issue of the possible dealings between Turkish government agencies and IS. Furthermore, by putting forth such an accusation, President Putin has the chance to gain propaganda points in his tussle with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and in some ways, it may legitimize recent Russian attacks on targets in parts of Syria that are held by non-IS rebel forces backed by Turkey. Amongst these attacks were the destruction of a large bakery built by the Turkish IHH Humanitarian Relief Foundation.

While the ongoing Syrian conflict has given rise to an extensive war economy, in which deals are struck between a number of partners, that include groups that are fighting each other on the battlefield, the smuggling of oil and petroleum products from Syria into neighbouring Turkey has been going on for decades, as traders and security officials have cashed in on the difference in prices that have been created by the heavy subsidies in Syria.

However with the ongoing civil war in Syria, the trade of oil and petroleum products has vastly evolved and in 2014, it saw IS take over much of the production of crude and refining business along the Euphrates river valley. This effectively represented about one-third of the country’s pre-conflict oil capacity, with most of the remainder under Kurdish control.

While there are many steps before oil produced under IS control reaches an end-user, it is highly likely that Turkish business people, customs officials and intelligence agents are amongst the people implicated. However it must be noted that the scale of the entire trade is small compared with Turkey’s own energy economy, in which Russia plays a dominant role. Furthermore, most of the participants are within Syria.

According to widely reported estimates, in mid-2015, oil fields under the control of IS produced between 30,000 and 40,000 barrels per day. Sources have disclosed that the supply chain entailed IS selling crude to traders, who would then transport it to small refineries that were set up in IS-controlled areas. The petrol and diesel produced in these refineries was then sold across Syria and Iraq, while any surplus was smuggled across the border, mainly to Turkey. While the quality of these products was poor, many buyers, particularly those in rebel-controlled areas, had little other option and typically paid a heavy premium over international prices. While IS was able to profit from the well-head sales, as well as gain from taxes along the supply chain, the profitability of the Syrian illicit oil trade was hit by the collapse in world oil prices in October 2014.

Oil purchased at the well-head for US $20 – 25 per barrel in mid-October could end up in Turkey being sold at below the world market price of over US $100/barrel, effectively yielding health profits to everyone involved. For a trader to make a profit selling bad quality Syrian products in Turkey now the well-head price would have to be much lower, and this would not necessarily make commercial sense for IS.

Since mid October-2014, the IS oil business has been further hit as US and French jets have started to target well-head facilities and tanker trucks for the first time. Furthermore, Kurdish and local Arab rebels have also seized an oil field from IS in the southern province of Hassakeh.

Turkey relies almost entirely on imports for its total oil consumption, which is about 720,000 barrels per day. A large number of those imports come from Russia. In 2014, Russia also supplied 27 billion cubic metres of natural gas to Turkey, effectively representing 56% of its total consumption. Russia was also Turkey’s largest source of imports, supplying goods worth US $2.3 billion, or more than 10% of Turkey’s total imports.

Tunisia Reopens Its Border With Libya

On Friday, 11 December, Tunisia reopened its border with Libya, just fifteen days after it closed the frontier following a suicide bombing in Tunis, which was claimed by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group.

According to Walid Louguini, a ministry spokesman, “the border with Libya was opened Thursday at midnight.” On the ground sources have reported that the crossing points of Ras Jedir and Wazen-Dhehibe were opened on Friday amidst extra security.

Tunisian officials ordered that the border crossings with conflict-stricken Libya be closed after the 24 November attack on a bus that was carrying presidential guards. The attack occurred along a main thoroughfare in the capital city and resulted in the death of twelve personnel. The attack, which was claimed by IS, prompted Tunisian authorities to increase security and surveillance at its borders and to reimposed a month-long state of emergency as they try to grapple with the increased threat that is emanating from lawless Libya. Shortly after the attack, the interior ministry reported that the explosives used in that attack were the same which were used to make suicide belts that were illegally brought from Libya and seized last year.

This year, IS has claimed three deadly attacks in Tunisia. In March, twenty-two people were killed at the Bardo National Museum in Tunis while in June, thirty-eight people, mainly British holidaymakers, were gunned down at the seaside resort of Sousse. Last week, as part of increased security measures, Tunisian authorities closed the main Tunis-Carthage international airport to Libyan planes. Official sources estimate that as many as 6,000 Tunisians have travelled to fight in Iraq, Syria and Libya, with many opting to join a number of extremist militant groups that are known to operate in the region, including IS.

Examining the Rivalry Between al-Qaeda and Islamic State

The 20 November 2015 attack on a luxury hotel in the Malian capital of Bamako killed nineteen people and highlighted Mali’s ongoing security concerns. In the wake of the attack, three terrorist groups known to operate regionally claimed responsibility. Amongst them is al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Many experts have indicated that the attack was partly aimed at asserting the global terror network’s relevance as it continues to face an unprecedented challenge from the so-called Islamic State (IS) group for leadership of the global jihadi movement. It came exactly a week after IS carried out several attacks in Paris, which killed 130 people in what is the bloodies attack on France in decades. That attack, which is also the deadliest to take place on the European continent in the last ten years, also marked the first time that suicide bombers were used to carry in Europe, it has also prompted the questioning of security across the European Union and the ongoing migration crisis. What is evident however is that in recent years, al-Qaeda has to a certain degree been eclipsed by the IS group and its self-styled caliphate. As IS continues to expand in Syria and Iraq, and garners further allegiance from terrorist groups operating in other regions of the world, such as Nigerian-based Boko Haram, al-Qaeda is attempting to remind the world that the movement founded by Osama bin Laden continues to pose a serious threat.

Origins

IS began as al-Qaeda in Iraq, a local affiliate that battled American troops and carried out deadly attacks which targeted the country’s Shi’ite majority. However from the beginning there were tensions between the local group, led by Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and al-Qaeda’s central leadership. In a 2005 letter, which was obtained and publicized by US intelligence officials, Osama bin Laden’s deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, objected to al-Zarqawi’s brutality towards Shi’ite civilians, stating that it would turn Muslims against the group. While Al-Zarqawi was killed in a US airstrike in 2006, he is seen by man as being the founder of IS, which continues to use brutal tactics.

In 2013, IS leader Abu Bakh al-Baghdadi renamed the group the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and proclaimed his authority in Iraq and in neighbouring Syria. Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the leader al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, the al-Nusra Front, rejected the move and swore allegiance to al-Zawahri, who ordered al-Baghdadi to confine his operations to Iraq. Al-Baghdadi however refused and by 2014, al-Nusra Front and IS were battling each other across northern Syria. This split was felt across the world, with al-Qaeda affiliates in Yemen and Northern Africa remaining loyal to al-Zawahri while others choosing to pledge their allegiance to IS.

Differences

While both al-Qaeda and IS want to end Western influence in the Middle east, and want to unite Muslims under a transnational caliphate that is governed by a strict version of Islamic law, both groups are bitterly divided over tactics. Bin Laden believed that attacking the “far enemy” of the US would weaken its support for the “near enemy” of Arab autocracies and rally Muslims to overthrow them. Under al-Zawahri, local al-Qaeda affiliates have sought to exploit post-Arab Spring chaos by allying with other insurgents and tribes and by cultivating local support in places such as Syria and Yemen, where they provide social services. For bin Laden, who was killed in a US raid in Pakistan in 2011, as well as his successor al-Zawahri, the establishment of a caliphate was a vaguely defined end goal.

IS however began seizing and holding territory in Syria and Iraq and later forming affiliates across the Middle East, and into Africa. In the summer of 2014, IS declared a caliphate, and deemed the Syrian city of Raqqa as its capital. Al-Baghdadi has since claimed to be the leader of the world’s 1.6 billion Muslims, however an overwhelming majority have rejected his ideas and brutal tactics.

IS Attacks Claim More than 800 Lives Abroad This Year

Over this past year, the so-called Islamic State (IS) group has dramatically expanded its theatre of operations, moving from its hub in Syria and neighbouring Iraq, to either executing or inspiring a series of attacks across three continents that have already claimed more than 800 lives this year.

The mayhem that has been created by those attacks, which include the downing of a Russian airline and gun and suicide bombings in Paris France, has attracted a lot of attention. Furthermore, the scope of the recent attacks, coupled with the number of those killed and wounded, has demonstrated a level of sophistication and determination. The attacks have also revealed the extents to which the group is willing to go in a bid to surpass al-Qaeda and to prove itself the most dominant jihadi movement on the planet. Furthermore, last week’s announcement by IS that it had killed Norwegian and Chinese capital reflects its intention to continue to kidnap and kill hostages inside its self-declared “caliphate” in Syria and Iraq while at the same time pursuing mass casualty attacks abroad.

Over the past year, thousands of people have been killed by IS militants both in Syria and in neighbouring Iraq in mass executions, bombings and other attacks.

Timeline of attacks outside of Syria and Iraq this year:

• 13 November – At least 129 people are killed in Paris with over 350 wounded, most at a concert hall, but some at trendy restaurants and several near a national Stadium. IS claims the attack, which is the worst in the history of Paris, calling it retaliation for France’s ongoing role in US-led airstrikes that have targeted IS operations in both Syria and Iraq.
• 12 November – Powerful twin suicide bombings targeted a crowded Shi’ite neighbourhood in Beirut. At least 43 people are killed and more than 200 are wounded. IS claims responsibility for the attack.
• 31 October – A bomb downs a Russian airliner just 23 minutes after it takes off from the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. The plane was en route to St Petersburg, Russia. The plane crashes in the Egyptian Sinai Peninsula, which is home to a potent IS affiliate. All 224 people on board, most of them Russian tourists, are killed. IS claims the attack.
• 10 October – Two suicide bombings kill at least 100 people at a peaceful rally in Ankara, Turkey. While the attack has not been claimed by IS, Turkish prosecutors investigating the attack have disclosed that it was carried out by a local IS cell.
• 6 October – Suicide car bombing targeted exiled Yemeni officials and the Saudi and Emirati troops baking their efforts to retake the country kill at least fifteen people in the port city of Aden. A new IS affiliate claimed responsibility for the attack, which officials had earlier blamed on Yemen’s Shi’ite rebels.
• 6 August – A suicide bomber attacks a mosque inside a police compound in western Saudi Arabia. Fifteen people are killed in what is the deadliest attack on the kingdom’s security forces in years. Eleven of the dead belonged to an elite counterterrorism unit whose tasks include protecting the hajj pilgrimage. The attack was later claimed by IS.
• 26 June – A gunman killed 38 tourists, mostly Britons, in the coastal resort of Sousse, Tunisia.
• A bomb rips through one of Kuwait’s oldest Shi’ite mosques during Friday prayers, killing 27 people. This is the first major militant attack to take place in Kuwait in more than two decades. The attack is claimed by IS.
• In a third attack that same day, a truck driver once known for radical Islamic ties crashes into a US-owned chemical warehouse in southern France and hangs his employer’s severed head on a factory gat, along with banners with Arabic inscriptions.
• 29 May – A suicide bomber disguised as a woman blows himself up in the parking lot of a Shi’ite mosque in the Saudi Arabian port city of Damman, killing four people. IS later claimed responsibility for the attack
• 22 May – A suicide bomber strikes a Shi’ite mosque in eastern Saudi Arabia as worshippers commemorate the birth of a revered saint. Twenty-one people are killed in the attack and dozens are left injured. The attack occurred in the eastern Qatif region, which is the heartland of Saudi Arabia’s Shi’ite Muslim minority. The attack, which was claimed by IS, was the deadliest militant assault in the kingdom in more then a decade.
• 18 April – Afghan President Ashraf Ghani blames IS for a suicide bombing in the country that killed at least 35 people and wounded 125 others.
• 20 March – An emerging IS affiliate in Yemen claims responsibility for a series of suicide bombings that kill 137 people and wound 345.
• 18 March – Extremist gunmen open fire on foreign tourists at Tunisia’s National Bardo Museum, killing 22 people in the country’s worst attack on civilians in thirteen years. IS later claimed responsibility for the attack.

Officials Warn that IS May Be Seeking to Develop Chemical/Biological Weapons

Late last week, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls warned that France could face a chemical or biological attack from terror groups, as deputies voted to extend the state of emergency, which was imposed after the attacks, for another three months from 26 November. Speaking to the lower house of Parliament on Thursday ahead of the vote, the prime minister stated that “terrorism hit France not because of what it is doing in Iraq and Syria…but for what it is,” adding, “we know that there could also be a risk of chemical or biological weapons,” however he did not talk of a specific threat.

On Thursday, US and Iraqi intelligence officials also reported that IS is aggressively pursuing development of chemical weapons, setting up a branch that is dedicated to research and experiments with the help of scientists from Iraq, Syria and elsewhere in the region.   While US intelligence officials currently do not believe that IS has the capabilities to develop sophisticated weapons, such as never gas, that are most suited for a terrorist attack on a civilian target, the Islamist terror group has in the past used mustard gas on the battlefield in Syria and Iraq. Militants have used mustard gas against Iraqi Kurdish fighters and in Syria. In mortars that hit Kurdish forces in northern Iraq earlier this year, preliminary tests by the US showed traces of the chemical agent sulphur mustard. Furthermore, US intelligence agencies have consistently underestimated IS, which has shown itself to be more capable and innovative than al-Qaeda and has greater financial resources.

According to a senior Iraqi military intelligence officer and two officials from another Iraqi intelligence agency, IS has set up a branch that is tasked with pursuing chemical weapons. While these officials have not provided details of the programme, including how many personnel it is believed to have or its budget, Hakim al-Zimili, the head of the Iraqi parliament’s security and defense committee, citing intelligence reports he has access to, disclosed that the group has managed to attract chemical experts from both abroad as well as Iraqi experts, including ones who once worked for Saddam Hussein’s now-dissolved Military Industrialization Authority. Iraqi intelligence officials have disclosed that the foreigners include experts from Chechnya and southeast Asia. According to Al-Zmili, IS recently moved its research labs, experts and materials from Iraq to “secured locations” inside Syria, adding that the move was apparently out of concern of an eventual assault on Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, which ws captured by IS in the summer of 2014. Iraqi officials have also expressed their concern that the large safe haven the extremists control since overrunning parts of Iraq and Syria last year has left Iraqi authorities largely in the dark in regards to the IS programme. A senior Iraqi intelligence official has disclosed that “they now have complete freedom to select locations for their labs and production sites and have a wide range of experts, both civilians and military, to aid them.” It is evident that Iraqi authorities fear that the use of chemical weapons could be expanded. Over the summer, Iraq’s military distributed gas masks to troops deployed in the regions west and north of Baghdad. According to a senior officer in the province of Salahuddin, which is located north of Baghdad, 25 percent of the troops deployed there were equipped with masks. More recently, Hakim al-Zamili, the head of the Iraqi parliament’s security and defense committee reported that the country’s military had received from Russia 1,000 protective suits against chemical attacks.

What is known is that developing chemical weapons has been an ambition of the group, and various other jihadi movements, for years. According to two senior officials, in a 2013 report on IS’ weapons procurement efforts, a senior deputy of IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi wrote of “significant progress” toward producing chemical weapons. The officials further disclosed that in the report, Sameer al-Khalifawy wrote that chemical weapons would ensure “Sift victory” and “terrorize our enemies,” adding that what was needed was “to secure a safe environment to carry out experiments.” Al-Khalifawy was killed by rebels in Syria in early 2014, just months before IS overran Mosul and much of northern and Western Iraq. Furthermore in May 2013, Iraqi security forces, acting on a tip from US intelligence officials, raided a secret chemical weapons research lab in Baghdad’s Sunni-majority district of al-Doura. According to Iraqi intelligence officials, security forces arrested two militants running the lab, Kefah Ibrahim al-Jabouri, who held a master’s degree in chemistry, and Abdel Mahmoud al-Abadi, who has a bachelor’s degree in physics and who worked at Saddam’s Military Industrialization Authority before it was disbanded in 2003. Iraqi officials have disclosed that the two men were working with al-Baghdadi, citing IS correspondence that they seized from al-Jabouri. International officials however have disputed these claims, stating that the men were not connected with IS. Iraqi officials have also complained of a lack of cooperation from neighbouring Syria, citing the case of a veteran Iraqi jihadist and weapons expert, Ziad Tareq Ahmed, who fled to Syria after Iraqi security agents raided his home in Baghdad in 2010 and arrested several members of his cell. At the time, Iraqi agents found large amounts of material that could have been used for making mustard gas. Ahmed, who holds a master’s degree in chemistry and who has worked with several Islamic militant groups without formally joining any, was arrested by the Syrians last year. While the Syrian government allowed Iraqi officials to interrogate him in prison, they refused to hand him over. According to Iraqi intelligence officials, last month, Syrian officials released him. One of the officials has since stated that “this is a very grave development, adding that “his release adds significantly to our concerns.”