Yemen: Houthi Rebels and Government Reach Tentative Deal

After days of fighting in Yemen, the government and Houthi rebels reached a tentative deal on Wednesday, ending a standoff that caused Aden air and sea ports to close, and oil production to halt. As of Thursday morning, all ports have reopened. Oil production will likely start after the return of the president’s abducted Chief of Staff, Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak.

On 17 January, the Houthi rebels abducted Mubarak as he was enroute to present a draft of the nation’s new constitution. The Houthis had vocally argued that the commission drafting the constitution must ensure greater representation for marginalised groups in Yemen, particularly the Houthis. They said they had become aware of “irregularities” in both the text and how the government was planning to make it law. The new constitution could divide Yemen into a six-region federation. The Houthis oppose such a move and support the country becoming two federal regions.

Upon Mubarak’s abduction, leaders from Southern Yemen gave the Houthis 24 hours to release Mubarak, threatening to cut off oil supplies. They refused, and as a form of protest against the Houthis, oil production in Shabwa, Yemen’s most strategic oil province and home to Mubarak, was halted.  Shabwa’s governor, Ahmed Ali Bahaj, ordered all oil companies in the province to halt production before sunset, stopping three oil fields which produce about 50,000 barrels per day. The governor also ordered the closure of all government institutions in the province. In solidarity, Hadramout Tribal Federation sent a memo to the local oil production companies to stop operating in line with the escalating events in the country. Crude production from Yemen’s Masila oilfields in Hadramout province has also stopped. Yemen’s only gas terminal at Balhaf in Shabwa in the Gulf of Aden also halted operations after foreign experts were evacuated from the liquefied natural gas export facility late on Sunday. Total is the biggest investor in Yemen’s gas export industry through its 40% shareholding in Yemen LNG, where its partners are US-based Hunt Oil on 17%, state-run Yemen Gas Co on 17% and Korea Gas Corp (Kogas) on 6%.

Citing security concerns, the local security committee of the city of Aden ordered the airport, sea port and all land crossings closed.

During the clashes that followed Mubarak’s abduction, the Houthis also took control of Yemen’s state news and TV agencies. In a televised address on 20 January, Abdul Malik al-Houthi said that Hadi and those around him failed to implement political deals that could usher in a new era in Yemen. The Houthi leader said, “We … will not hesitate to impose any necessary measures to implement the peace and partnership agreement.” He added, “All the options are open and without exception and the ceiling is very, very high. And this is why, I here advise the president … Implement this deal. It is for your benefit and for the benefit of your people.”

The rebels also seized control of a military aviation college, and massive weapons depot belonging to the government brigade that provides presidential personal security. The depot contains 280 T-80 Russian-made tanks and other heavy artillery. Most of the security forces reportedly fled after a light clash with fighters.

Despite a tentative cease-fire that was put in place on 20 January, by the next day, the rebels stormed the presidential palace complex and shelled the private home of President Hadi. Early on 21 January, Houthi fighters replaced the guards at the president’s residence. “President Hadi is still in his home. There is no problem, he can leave,” said Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi politburo. Hadi was contacted by US officials and assured them he is “fine.” A Yemeni official said the President does not consider himself a captive, adding that the Houthis were assisting Hadi’s security detail in their protection mission because part of the detail had run away because of the fighting.

The Houthis agreed to release Mubarak and withdraw their militias from key government institutions if officials agree to a re-write part of the country’s constitution. Under the terms of the agreement, the government will accept changes in the draft of the new.                 Several of the constitutional changes sought by the Houthis would emphasize the characteristics of Yemen as a federal state and push for more inclusion of diverse groups. The Houthis have called for marginalized political groups to have the right to fair representation and partnerships in state institutions. If agreed, the rebels will withdraw their fighters from the capital, where they have held control of the city since September, and would cooperate with the government so that the President and state institutions can return to their duties. A Houthi official said the rebels will abide by the deal if the President follows a timeline specified in the negotiations.

A member of the Houthi political council said, “This deal draws the road map for the political process going forward with the participation of all factions in Yemen. In the past, timelines were not respected, who hope this time will be different.”

While the actions of the Houthis had the appearance of a coup, they stopped short of removing President Hadi. Yemen’s current leader is an ally to the West and to key Sunni majority nations. A government source said: “They know that if they bring about the downfall of the president, they won’t be able to rule the country, because Western and neighbouring countries will gang on up on them, as well as other provinces that are not under their control.”

At the time of this posting, air and sea ports have restored operations in Aden, butthere is no indication that oil has been restarted; it is unclear whether Mubarak has been returned to Sana’a.

The Houthis: Background Information

While the majority of Yemen is Sunni, the Houthis stem from a branch of Shia Islam known as Zaidism (Zaydism). Zaidis comprise approximately a third of Yemen’s population, and ruled north Yemen for nearly a millennia until 1962, when a coup d’état carried out by Abdullah as-Sallal, successfully dethroned Imam Muhammad al-Badr, who was the newly crowned king of Yemen. Sallal and declared Yemen a republic and became its first president.

North and South Yemen unified in 1990 under its first president, Ali Abdullah Saleh. Fearing a threat to their religious and cultural traditions, a portion of the Zaidis formed a rebel group known as Ansar Allah (Partisans of God). The group were led by Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, a former member of the Yemeni parliament for the Al-Haqq Islamic party between 1993 and 1997. The rebels sought to win greater autonomy for the Saada province. Houthi led the first uprising in June of 2004, but was found and killed by Yemeni security forces in September of that year.  After Hussein’s passing, his family took up the mantle, and the Houthis took on the name of their leader. The Houthis conducted five further rebellions until a ceasefire agreement was signed with the Yemeni government in 2010. During the 2011 Arab Spring, the Houthis joined the protests against President Ali Abdullah Saleh. When Saleh stepped down in 2012, the Houthis quickly used the power vacuum to expand control over the Saadi province, and neighbouring Amran province.

According to the Houthis, the people of Yemen are dissatisfied with their transitional government, led by President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi. They believe that it is dominated by members of the old regime and unlikely to result in positive changes for the poor nation. In August 2014, Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi demanded that President Hadi reverse a decision to remove subsidies that had hit the country’s poor and that he replace the “corrupt” government with one that better represented Yemen’s various factions. A growing number Houthi supporters, including both Shia and Sunnis, protested for weeks, holding sit-ins at government buildings and blocking main roads. On 2 September, Hadi agreed to dismiss his government and cut fuel prices by 30 percent. The Houthis found it insufficient.

A week later, security forces opened fire on Houthi supporters in Sanaa, killing several people. Clashes escalated in Sana’a and by mid-September, battles left more than 300 dead within a month. The rebels occupied government buildings and seized the headquarters of a military division loyal to Brig Gen Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, a Sunni Islamist who led the fight against the Houthis between 2004 and 2010. Amidst a rising death toll, a peace deal was reached with the Houthis on 20 September. The Houthis would withdraw from the capital if fuel subsidies were restored, a technocratic government was put in place, including an appointment of presidential advisers representing the Houthis and the secessionist Hiraak al-Janoubi (Southern Movement); and the implementation of policies agreed at the National Dialogue Conferences in February. The Houthis, however, refused an agreement to withdraw from Sana’a and northern cities and surrender their weapons to authorities within 45 days. As a result, the Houthis still control large parts of the capital, demanding oversight of ministries and calling for an end to what they call a corrupt political system. The Houthis have also expanded into central and western parts of Yemen, triggering clashes with extremist militant group al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

Critics say the Houthis are a proxy for Shia dominated Iran, which the rebels and Iran deny. Former president Saleh has been accused by the US of backing the Houthis’ takeover of Sanaa “to not only delegitimize the central government, but also create enough instability to stage a coup”. In November, the UN Security Council imposed sanctions on him and two senior Houthi leaders. The UN said the leaders were threatening Yemen’s peace and stability and obstructing the political process.

More Attacks in Yemen, Houthis Gain Greater Control of State Institutions

18 December- In the third attack in two days, suicide bombers detonated two car bombs in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida. Nine people, including the two attackers were killed, and at least 15 others were wounded. Three additional suspected suicide bombers were killed by local security forces before they were able to detonate their explosives. On Twitter, Yemen’s al-Qaeda affiliate Ansar al-Sharia has claimed responsibility for the attacks.
A day earlier, two suicide car bombers rammed their vehicles into a Shiite rebels’ checkpoint and a house south of Sana’a as a school bus was travelling nearby. The detonation killed 31 people, including at least 20 primary school students, all under the age of 12. Witnesses reported that the car appeared to be loaded with potatoes which concealed the explosives hidden underneath. The car bomber arrived at a checkpoint manned by rebels and blew up the vehicle as a student bus was passing, filled with female primary school students. Immediately after the attack, rebel troops brought four pickup trucks to transport the bodies, while ambulances assisted the wounded. Witnesses state that body parts were strewn throughout the street, along with open bags of potatoes. The Houthis called the attack “the ugliest crime against childhood.” Later, a second car bomber targeted the home of a Shiite rebel leader Abdullah Idris. The attack marked the second time Idris’ residence had been targeted.

Houthis Gain Political Control

Yemen has been tumultuous since September, when rebel Shiite Houthi fighters captured Sana’a and forced Prime Minister Mohammed Basindwa and his government to step down. The Houthis have become the de facto power base in Yemen, expanding control into areas south and west of Sana’a. The rebels are fighting two battles; on one front, they have engaged in several clashes with al Qaeda, driving them out of several strongholds. On the other front, they are battling the current Yemeni government, who they accuse of rampant embezzlement and corruption. On Tuesday, the power struggle between the Houthis and the Yemeni government came to a head as the rebels gained an increasing grip on state-run institutions.
On 16 December, Houthi rebels surrounded the Ministry of Defence, preventing the Minister of Defence from accessing his office, and Houthi fighters broke into the offices of al-Thawra newspaper to demand the dismissal of the Editor-in-Chief, Faisal Markam. The group claimed to be following orders from Houthi leader, Abdelmalek al-Huthi, who said to “to end corruption in all state institutions”. A day later, Houthi fighters seized control of Yemen’s Central Bank and the Department of Civil Status and Civil Registration. Militants sealed off the Central Bank, preventing employees from entering or leaving the premises. The Houthis believe Hadi is illegally using government funds to finance media outlets affiliated with his son. Houthis also seized control of the headquarters of SAFER, Yemen’s largest state-run oil and gas company.
On Thursday, Yemeni Prime Minister Khaled Bahah’s cabinet won a parliamentary vote of confidence. Bahah’s government, composed of technocrats and politicians from a range of parties, has the broad support of the Houthis but relations are not easy. Bahah suggested on Wednesday his government could resign after the rebels raided state institutions and sacked public officials. Strengthened by the vote, the government must now move forward gingerly, striking a balance between working with the Shiite Houthi rebels while avoiding sectarian strife with the Sunni majority. The Bahah government must also develop a strategy to deal with security threats from al-Qaeda militants and their affiliated tribal groups, as well as southern separatist movements.

Egypt, Gulf States in Advanced Talks for Military Alliance

3 November– Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are in discussions to develop a military agreement to combat Islamic militants, with the possibility of a joint force to intervene around the Middle East. The Sunni-dominated nations share a view that the region is threatened by Sunni Islamic militants and Islamist political movements. The military pact goes beyond the current engagements in Iraq and Syria as part of the US-led coalition; aiming to target additional hotbeds of extremist activity. The alliance would focus on Libya and Yemen, where radicalised militants have seized control of territories from their respective governments. Egyptian President Abel Fattah el-Sisi has warned that extremists must be dealt with in several places, and that would require “a comprehensive counterterrorism strategy in the region.” Jordan and Algeria have also been approached to join the alliance.

While the talks remain secret, unnamed Egyptian officials have reported that the discussions are in advanced stages. The alliance is considering the establishment of a core force made up of elite troops, aircrafts, and an intelligence service comprised of members of the alliance. The nations have already held bilateral and multilateral war games the past year in advance of an alliance. Reportedly, there remain differences regarding the size of force, funding, location of headquarters, and whether to seek Arab League or U.N. political cover for operations. If the joint forces cannot be agreed upon, the alliance still aims to coordinate military action for pinpoint anti-militant operations. It is thought that actions such as these have already taken place; Egypt and the UAE are believed to have conducted targeted airstrikes in Libya over the summer, and Egypt has reportedly carried out unilateral strikes in Libya; although the Egyptian government denies involvement in either operation.

The alliance is being discussed as violent clashes intensify in Benghazi as the Libyan army attempts to retake areas seized by Islamist militants. On Monday, extremist fighters hit an oil tanker with a rocket propelled grenade, causing fire and major disruption at Benghazi’s port. The Libyan army asked residents in the central al-Sabri district to evacuate ahead of a major military operation. Over 200 people have been killed and several homes destroyed since the Libyan army began its offensive in October, yet residents are fearful of getting caught in crossfire while travelling.

Libya is currently divided by rival governments. The internationally recognized and recently elected government has taken shelter in Tobruk; Islamist militias that overran Tripoli during the summer have reinstituted the previous Islamist government in Tripoli. The nation is also facing a surplus of warring militias and militant groups, and has become a safe-haven for radicalised fighters.

In Yemen, where the government has been battling one of al-Qaeda’s most active branches for years, the government is also contending with Houthi Shiite rebels. The Houthis successfully overran Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, last month. Saudi Arabia has offered support against the Houthis in 2010, believing that the Shiite Houthis are serving as proxy fighters for Iran.

Pan Arab alliances in the past have not succeeded. However the impetus is strong for the coalition. Saudi Arabia and Egypt face a growing militant threat within their borders, and Gulf nations are eager to keep militant threats away from their borders and foreign interests. The multi-national alliance is also intended to serve as a symbol of unity and strength against the perceived influence of Iran. The nations will seek a nod of approval from the US, however Washington has not yet been privy to the talks.

Houthi Leader Declares Successful Revolution in Yemen

24 September- Abdul Malik al-Houthi, leader of Yemen’s Shia Houthi rebels, has announced a “successful revolution” as Houthi supporters have taken key parts of Sana’a, forcing the government to “answer to popular demands.” The Yemeni government and the Houthi rebels agreed to a UN brokered deal after weeks of violence that left over 200 people dead in Yemen’s capital.

UN envoy to Yemen, Jamal Benomar, announced Saturday that the deal was reached after “intense consultations with all the political parties”, including the Houthi rebels. He adds that the treaty would be a “national document that will advance the path of peaceful change, and will lay the foundations for national partnership and for security and stability in the country.”

While the details were not released, it is expected that a new government will be formed in coming days. The Houthis have been invited to play a role in the formation of the new government. In addition, Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi also agreed to reverse an unpopular decision to remove fuel subsidies.

Background

The Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah (Partisans of God), are a rebel movement stemming from a branch of Shia Islam known as Zaidism.  The name “Houthi” originates from the group’s first leader, Hussein Badr al-Din al-Houthi, who led the rebel group’s uprising in 2004, with the aims of obtaining greater autonomy in the Saada province of Northern Yemen and protection of Zaidi traditions, which were perceived as threatened by Sunni encroachment. Zaidis comprise a third of Yemen’s population, and ruled North Yemen for nearly a millennia until 1962.When Hussein Badr al-Din al-Houthi and was killed by Yemen’s military in 2004, his family took over operations.

At first glance, it appears as though the fighting is based in the broader Shi’a-Sunni divide, however the battles are more accurately defined as localised war with a regional and cultural dimensions. Over the past two years, Houthi appeal has spread beyond the Zaidi population, and they have grown to become Yemen’s most popular opposition group, gaining support from Salafi and tribal members. Currently, Houthi rebels and supporters carry enough power to impose their desires on the government and the Yemeni population.

The most recent rebellion began in mid August, after Abdul Malik al-Houthi called upon President Hadi to reverse his decision to remove fuel subsidies. Hadi’s unpopular and poorly implemented decision to raise the cost of fuel had an immediate and detrimental impact Yemen’s poor. By 18 August, the Houthi rebels had set up armed protest camps around Sana’s, and al-Houthi called for replacing the government with a new body that was representative of Yemen’s various factions.

Under pressure, on 2 September, Hadi agreed to dismiss his government, reduce fuel prices by 30%, and allow for appointment of a new prime minister. Hadi agreed that the various Yemeni factions could submit nominations from within their own ranks. The Houthis rejected this move, calling it ‘insufficient’. A week later, security forces clashed with Houthi supporters in Sana’a, resulting in several deaths. Negotiations were suspended on 15 September but resumed days later.

Weekend clashes

On Thursday 18 September, the Houthis began a four-day onslaught through areas of Sana’a. While According to witnesses, clashes initially centred on the campus of Al-Iman University, a stronghold of Sunni Islamists. By Saturday, the group had taken over state television headquarters in Sana’a, pulling broadcasts off the air and trapping employees in the building. The group also seized government headquarters and overran a military camp, as well as homes belonging to Yemeni General Ali Mushin al-Ahmar, and tribal sheiks loyal to him. Al-Ahmar is the former head of the disbanded (yet still operational) First Armoured Division, and has led Yemeni forces in clashes against the Houthis since their inception. The General appears to have escaped the fighting; his whereabouts are unknown.

On Saturday, Yemen’s Supreme Security Commission imposed an after dark curfew in parts of Sana’a. The Ministry of Education announced school closures until fighting subsided, and the Yemeni Defence Ministry has put security forces on high alert. Meanwhile, on the Interior Ministry’s website, Interior Minister Hussein al-Terb urged security forces to “cooperate” with the Houthis “to strengthen security and stability, preserve public property and guard government installations… and to consider Ansar Allah friends of the police”.

On Sunday, Yemeni Prime Minister Mohammed Basindawa resigned amid peace talks. In his resignation letter he states, “The partnership between myself and the president in leading the country only lasted for a short period, before it was replaced by autocracy to the extent that the government and I no longer knew anything about the military and security situation.”

Despite the confusion and violence, the fragile peace agreement was signed on Sunday. The deal essentially gives the Houthi rebels a greater stake in mainstream politics. Under the UN-backed deal, Yemen will form a new government, and the Houthis and southern separatists will nominate a new prime minister. Al-Houthi stated, “If it is implemented, this agreement will also change the government, which the people called to fall, to fail, because it stood on an unjust, non-consensual basis.” Al-Houthi called for cooperation between the Houthi rebels and Islah, the main Sunni party in Yemen.