Update on the Suez Canal, Egypt

In continuing efforts to maintain the protection of the Suez Canal Zone, Egyptian authorities issued unprecedented increases to security. Egyptian armed forces have erected checkpoint every 20 kilometres, and have deployed army helicopters to monitor the Canal Zone. In addition, there are increased mobile security patrols, and the military has installed more security cameras in and around the waterway. The government has also been working with local tribes in the Sinai Peninsula to ensure cooperation in the region’s security.

Analysts surmise that hitting and sinking a vessel in the Canal Zone would be extremely difficult; such an endeavour would require a suicide boat attack, floating mines, or missiles. While the former two options would be almost inconceivable to get through Suez security, the option that remains is to build a small battery in a deserted area, capable of delivering a missile to attack a ship. However, the development of such a system would likely be detected by electronic or satellite surveillance, or one of the many military battalions stationed in the Suez region.

Experts have ensured that Egyptian authorities were fully capable of securing the Suez Canal and preventing potential terrorist attacks, however there is the possibility of “minor” limited attacks in the near future. Military expert Ahmed Ragae said, “I expect to see limited and ineffective attacks that aim only to raise doubts about the canal among western countries.”

Western countries are already keeping a close eye on the turmoil in Egypt. Earlier today in Nile Valley Egypt, a car bomb targeted the convoy of Egypt’s Interior Minister Mohammed Ibrahim in a suspected assassination attempt. The bomb did not harm Ibrahim; however, as many as 10 people have been injured in the blast. The bombing occurred in Nasr City near the home of the Minister, and in a stronghold region of the Muslim Brotherhood. No party has claimed responsibility for the attack. Egyptian police have reportedly killed two of the attackers.

Ibrahim is the head of the country’s police force, which worked with other security forces to clear out two Muslim Brotherhood protest camps last month, resulting in a deadly crackdown that left hundreds dead and thousands injured. The protesters are seeking the return of deposed president Mohamed Morsi, who was removed from office on 3 July.

Update on the Suez Canal

Following the failed attack on the Panama-flagged shipping vessel COSCO ASIA in the Suez Canal, Egyptian authorities have bolstered security along the waterway.

Suez Canal Authority Chairman Mohab Mamish said in a statement that the military dealt “decisively” with the 31 August attempt, but gave no further details. It is known that three gunmen were arrested for opening fire on the ship, and investigations are ongoing. Sources within the Suez Canal Authority indicated that a rocket-propelled grenade had been used in the attempt; there was no damage to the ship or its cargo. It is believed that the attack was most likely conducted by foreigners, or Egyptians working with foreigners, from bases in the North Sinai.

Egyptian authorities, meanwhile, have elevated security along the Canal Zone. Commander of the Third Field Army has announced that the waterway and the ships transiting the canal are completely secure.  While Egypt is under national curfew until 31 August, authorities stress that traffic through the Suez Canal remains unaffected. The Canal Zone is secured by the military, including land, sea and air patrols.

The Egyptian military and interim government are determined to keep traffic in the Suez flowing normally. Authorities have highlighted high-risk areas of threat to the canal and its land-based facilities, and are increasing security. But it is likely that such an incident could happen again. While there is intense security along the canal zone, residential areas could become trading areas for light weapons, free from the scrutiny of authorities.

Ships transiting the region are advised to pay attention to updates and recommendations from local authorities, and maintain a constant security watch.

The Joint War Committee, which is comprised of representatives from the Lloyd’s and IUA company markets, are reviewing the situation to identify whether this attack is indicative of a trend, and whether it was carried out by individuals rather than a group. They have not placed Egypt or the Suez Canal on their list of high-risk areas.

Traffic is currently uninterrupted in the Canal.

Suez-Sinai Update

Mohab Mamish, Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority, says that the Egyptian military foiled an attack on a container ship on Saturday. The attack, conducted by “terrorist elements” was intended to disrupt shipping in the Suez Canal. Reports indicate that the attempt was “completely unsuccessful” and the vessel was undamaged. The report did not indicate how the ship was targeted.

Unconfirmed reports indicate that two explosions occurred at 12:30 GMT as the Panama-flagged vessel, Cosco Asia, traversed the canal. Egyptian authorities have enacted extra security measures to secure the waterway, and have dealt “firmly” with the attempt. There was minimal interruption to shipping activity.

It is possible that the attack was linked to the increased arrests of Muslim Brotherhood (MB) leaders and members following the removal of President Mohamed Morsi. Attacks in the Sinai have become a near daily occurrence since the removal of the MB backed leader. It is known that factions of al-Qaeda have taken residence in the North Sinai region. A week earlier, 25 off-duty, unarmed policemen were killed by suspected al-Qaeda militants; one of the worst militant strikes since the removal of former president Hosni Mubarak in 2011.  The Egyptian government says they are conducting arrests of MB supporters in the fight against terrorism.

On Saturday, a top militant leader, Adel Mohammed (aka Adel Habara) was arrested in the Sinai Peninsula. Habara was tried in absentia and sentenced to death last year for the murder of soldiers in Nile Valley Egypt. The arrest of Habara could undermine militant activity in the area.

Earlier on Saturday, an Arabic recording was released by Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, spokesman for the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The recording stated, “There is nothing more right in God’s religion (Islam) than those who speak of the infidelity, reneging on Islam and abandonment of religion, and call for the necessity to fight these armies, foremost of which is the Egyptian army.” Al-Adnani also accused the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist al-Nour party of being co-opted to conduct the “futile secular approach to power through elections and democracy.”

There are currently no reported delays in the Suez Canal.

MENA Update

Arab League

Arab League to Pass Resolution on Syrian Chemical Weapons

Arab League ministers will meet in Cairo next week (September 2-3), and are expected to pass a resolution which blames Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for the wide-scale chemical weapons attack near Damascus last week. A representative of the League said, “The Arab foreign ministers will affirm the full responsibility of the Syrian regime for the chemical weapons’ attack that took place in Eastern Ghouta.” The representative also indicated that the League will ask for those responsible for the attack to be taken to the International Criminal Court. The Arab League is expected to call for the UN to adopt tougher sanctions on Syria, and to urge Russia and China not to block resolutions which propose action against Assad.

Permanent representatives within the Arab League have already placed responsibility for the attack on the Assad regime. The announcements provided regional political cover in the event of a U.S.-led military strike on Syria.

Supporters of the resolution are expected to include Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which both back anti-Assad rebels in Syria’s civil war. Iraq, Lebanon, and Algeria are likely to oppose or abstain from any vote which condemns Syria. Syria has been suspended from the Arab League since November 2011.

Algeria

Three Algerian troops killed in bombing

Three members of the Algerian army were killed and four injured following a bomb explosion in the Beni Milleuk Mountains in Tipaza Province. This marks the second attack in six weeks; in mid-July, four soldiers were killed after two bombs detonated in western Tipaza.

The Algerian military has been searching the region connecting Ain Defla and Tipaza provinces after receiving reports of terrorist activities in the area. Sources indicated that a terrorist group had planted a mine on a road that the army vehicles were using.

Egypt: National

Egyptian Authorities Detain Families of Muslim Brotherhood Leaders

Within 24 hours, Egyptian authorities detained over 60 people who were associated with the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), including relatives of the group’s leaders. Police have arrested the son of MB deputy Khairat el-Shater. The elder el-Shater was arrested on charges related to the killings of protesters outside the group’s headquarters in June. According to officials, el-Shater’s son, Saad, was reportedly arrested for threatening to release documents allegedly showing ties between his father and U.S. President Barack Obama. In addition, the brother-in-law of fugitive Brotherhood figurehead Mohammed el-Beltagy also was arrested. He was charged with violent protests aimed at toppling the interim government.

The crackdown on the Brotherhood intensified following the clearing of pro-Morsi protesters at Raba’a mosque in Cairo. In the ensuing unrest, over 1,000 people, including more than 100 officers were killed within a few days. As protesters turned violent, they were in turn met by neighbourhood watch groups. Authorities and local media have called the actions of the Brotherhood and their supporters “acts of terrorism.” Many among the arrested have been charged with inciting violence. While many of the MBs senior and mid-level leaders have been arrested, still others remain in hiding while encouraging protestors to ignore the protests and continue to rally against the removal of former president Morsi.

Many Egyptians suspect that the Muslim Brotherhood and its political allies could be barred from politics, forced underground once again as under the Mubarak regime. However, Interim Prime Minister Hazem el-Beblawi has said dissolving the group is not a solution, and urged against making dramatic decisions during turbulent times. Beblawi instead opts to monitor political parties rather than forcing them to operate covertly.

Meanwhile, interim president Adly Mansour issued a decree changing the nation’s military oath, removing a line that makes soldiers pledge allegiance to the presidency. Soldiers are now only required to pledge loyalty to their leadership and the country.

The security clampdown appears to have weakened the Brotherhood-led protests, which have been much smaller across the country this past week. There are planned protests Friday and calls for civil disobedience.

Iraq

Coordinated bombings kill 65

 A wave of bombings in the predominantly Shiite Muslim areas in and around Baghdad has killed at least 65 people and wounded many more. The blasts came in quick succession and targeted residents who were out shopping or on their way to work.

Unknown attackers deployed explosives-laden cars, suicide bombers and other bombs. They assailants struck parking lots, outdoor markets, and restaurants. In Kazimiyah, two bombs detonated in a parking lot, followed by a suicide car bomber who struck onlookers who had gathered at the scene. Ten people were killed and 27 wounded in that attack.

Car bombs went off in outdoor markets across the region. In Sadr City a car bomb was detonated, killing 5 and wounding 20. In Shula, a car bomb killed three and wounded nine; in Jisr Diyala a bomb killed eight and wounded 22; and one in New Baghdad area, killing three and wounding 12. Blasts in Bayaa, Jamila, Hurriyah and Saydiyah, resulted in 12 deaths. In Mahmoudiyah a suicide bomber blew himself up outside a restaurant, killing four and wounding 13. Finally, in Madain, a roadside bomb struck a passing military patrol, killing four soldiers and wounding six others.

In addition, seven Shiite family members killed when gunmen raided their home and shot them as they slept. Three children, ages eight to twelve, were killed along with their parents and two uncles in that attack.

It is suspected that the Iraqi branch of al-Qaeda is responsible. Over 500 people have been killed in Iraq since the beginning of August.

Libya

Gadhafi Son and Chief Spy Charged

Moammar Gadhafi’s, son Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, and former Gadhafi-regime Intelligence Chief Abdullah al-Senoussi have been charged with murder in relation to the country’s 2011 civil war. The trial will start on September 19 and will also include 28 former regime members who will face charges ranging from murder, forming armed groups in violation of the law, inciting rape and kidnappings.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) charged Seif al-Islam Gadhafi with murder and persecution of civilians. If convicted in that court, Seif al-Islam could face life imprisonment. This summer, ICC judges had ruled that Libya cannot give Seif al-Islam a fair trial. However he remains held in captivity by a militia group that has refused to turn him over to the Hague. Seif al-Islam was as he attempted to flee to Niger.

In Libya, he will be tried on charges of harming state security, attempting to escape prison and insulting Libya’s new flag. Seif al-Islam wants to be tried for alleged war crimes in the Netherlands, as the ICC does not issue a death sentence. He claims that a Libyan trial would be tantamount to murder. The remaining Gadhafi family, including his mother, sister, two brothers and others, were granted asylum in Oman in 2012.

Syria

AQ Offshoot Threatens Revenge Over Chemical Weapons Attack

An al-Qaeda affiliate, The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), has announced plans to coordinate with other Syrian rebel groups to take revenge for the chemical weapons attack last week outside of Damascus.

The ISIL released a statement on Twitter that was signed by seven other militant groups. The signatories all have operations in Eastern Ghouta, where the attacks occurred. The statement indicates that the organizations have agreed to conduct joint operations after a meeting called for by the ISIL “for all the jihadi factions in Eastern Ghouta.”

The operation, dubbed “Volcano of Revenge,” will target “the main joints of the regime in imprisoned Damascus, including security branches, support and supply points, training centres, and infrastructure.”

The groups that signed the statement include:

• Ahrar al Sham Islamic Movement (Independent group)
• Ahrar Dimashq Battalion, or Muhajireen Army (AQ linked)
• Abu Dhar al Ghafari Brigade, (ISIL unit)
• Al Habib Al Mustafa Brigades (FSA unit)
• Al Furqan Brigade (FSA unit)
• Umm al Qura Battalion (presumed independent)
• Deraa al-‘Asima Brigade (Lebanon Capital Shield Brigade)

The statement was released as US officials deliberate plans to conduct strikes against the Syrian government, ironically putting them on the same side as the ISIL.

Yemen

Yemen police foil potential terrorist attack

Police in Yemen have stopped an attempt to smuggle explosive materials through Sana’a airport, confiscating a package of explosives disguised as juice and soft drink. More details on the date of confiscation or the sender’s identity were not available.

Khalid Al Shaif, deputy director of the airport, has told reporters that airport police have previously aborted many bids to smuggle weapons, chemicals, and explosive materials, using tactics which include honey bottles or dismantling weapons and wrapping them with tin.

Egypt Update

For the first time since 2011, most citizens of Egypt obeyed a 2100h curfew, following the deadliest day since the country’s uprisings began in 2011. The nation has declared a month-long state of emergency following the deadliest day since the start of the 2011 revolution, with curfews in effect in 14 of the 27 provinces.

Following the removal of Egyptian President and Muslim Brotherhood member Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood and pro-Morsi supporters engaged in nearly six weeks of protest. Middle Eastern and Western diplomats attempted to negotiate a political resolution of inclusion, however the attempts failed and protesters remained firmly in place.

Interior Minister Mohamad Ibrahim declared “Zero Hour” yesterday morning (14 August), initializing a plan to remove pro-Morsi protesters from camps at Nahda Square in Giza, and the camp near Rabaa al-Adawiyah mosque in Cairo. Operations began at 7 a.m. local time, with security forces first allowing safe passage for protesters to leave the site voluntarily prior to the clearing operations. Nahda Square in Giza was cleared within three hours; the camp at Rabaa Al-Adawiyah Mosque took 12 hours.

In a televised statement, the Egyptian Interior Minister described a scene in which protesters in Rabaa camp had created barricades, and were armed with weapons ranging from small firearms to “heavy weapons and rocket-propelled grenades.”  Early in the day, over 200 protesters from both camps were arrested for possessing firearms, bladed weapons, grenades, and gas canisters. Ibrahim continued, “Many protesters fired excessively from roof tops on security forces.”

Violence Spreads

Egyptian police troops and anti-riot squads continued with the forcible removal of the protesters. Violence escalated as protesters accused the forces of firing into the crows, igniting a rapid escalation of violence. Throughout the day, mayhem spread across Egypt. Muslim Brotherhood supporters attacked several police stations, including firing a rocket-propelled grenade into a station in Kerdasa, in Giza. A news broadcast showed Muslim Brotherhood supporters pushing an armoured vehicle off Cairo’s October 6 Bridge onto the road below. In addition, at least seven Coptic Christian churches, and over 40 Coptic-owned or operated institutions throughout Egypt were targeted, including bookshops and pharmacies. Coptic rights organizations say the numbers are a low estimate.

By mid-afternoon, Muslim Brotherhood protesters had attacked the historic Library at Alexandria and the Malawy Museum in Minya, with reports of looting of some of its contents. The attacks sparked an immediate and indefinite shut-down of all ancient or historic sites and museums across the nation. All branches of the central bank were closed, and train services running north and south were suspended to prevent transport of protestors.

According to the Ministry of Health, by 7 am on the 15^th, there were 525 casualties, including 43 policemen, and 3,717 injuries. Representatives from the Muslim Brotherhood have placed the number of death at 2,000. Among those killed were three journalists: Mick Deane, 61, a cameraman for British broadcaster Sky News; Habiba Ahmed Abd Elaziz, 26, a reporter for the UAE-based Gulf News; and Ahmed Abdel Gawad of Egypt’s state-run newspaper, Al Akhbar. Deane and Elaziz were shot to death; however there is no information on how Gawad was killed.

Baradei Resigns

In Cairo, Interim Vice President El Baradei offered his resignation in protest to the violence sparked by the forcible removal of the protests. He had argued for a peaceful solution; allowing the protesters to remain in place and letting the gatherers decrease from attrition, as individuals became more resigned the reality that Morsi would not return, and they turn their focus to other issues, such as returning to work or finding means to support their family. In his resignation letter, he states, “It has become hard for me to keep bearing responsibility for decisions that I did not approve of and warned against their consequences. I cannot be responsible before God for a single drop of blood.”

The announcement caused very mixed reaction; some say the leader abandoned Egypt at a tough time. The Tamarod (rebel) campaign, which spearheaded the 30 June protests which resulted in Morsi’s removal from power, issued a statement on Facebook, calling El Baradei’s resignation an “escape from responsibility,” and adding, “We were hoping that El Baradei would do his role in explaining the situation to the global public opinion and international community and clarify that Egypt is facing organised terrorism, which highly endangers the Egyptian national security.” the statement read. Ahmed Darrag, a high ranking leader of El Baradei’s Constitution Party, denounced the decision and announced his resignation from the party.

Still others praised his decision. Khaled el-Masry, spokesman for the April 6 Youth Movement, says he “completely understands” the decision to resign from his post. In a statement, el-Masry said,
“El-Baradei has humanitarian biases as well as biases for justice and freedom that contradict bloodshed, especially if it happens while he is in a public post.”

International reaction

The military actions received international condemnation and warning. On Wednesday, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon condemned the violence used by Egyptian security forces to “in the strongest terms.” Through his spokesman, Eduardo del Buey, he said, “In the aftermath of today’s violence, the secretary-general urges all Egyptians to concentrate their efforts on promoting genuinely inclusive reconciliation. While recognizing that political clocks do not run backwards, the secretary-general also believes firmly that violence and incitement from any side are not the answers to the challenges Egypt faces.”

In a televised statement, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called the Egyptian military’s actions “deplorable” and ”counter to Egyptian aspirations for peace, inclusion and genuine democracy.” Michael Mann, a spokesman for EU Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton said, “Violence won’t lead to any solution and we urge the Egyptian authorities to proceed with utmost restraint.”

Turkey President Erdogan has urged the UN Security Council and Arab League to act quickly: “It is clear that the international community, by supporting the military coup and remaining silent over previous massacres, has encouraged the current administration to carry out today’s intervention, instead of protecting democracy and constitutional legitimacy in Egypt.” Leaders from Iran have also warned of the risk of civil war.

The Egyptian Ambassador to the US called it “the least bad option.”

Since the initial uprising, police had largely and deliberately disappeared from the streets. As a result, Egyptians have complained about lax law and order, and an increase in criminal activity. However, since Mursi’s removal, the police have been more visible in the streets, while also implementing a public relations campaign to improve their image, despite Mursi’s failure to develop any police reform during his term in office. Ibrahim’s claim to restore security to the Mubarak era, while well-intended, brought reminders and fear of a notoriously oppressive security force.

Conclusion

The Muslim Brotherhood will not ended its protests, however it is likely that only hard-line protesters will remain resistant and active following the clashes of the 14^th. With the actions taken yesterday, the Egyptian government has essentially established a baseline for what it is willing to tolerate.

The scale of violence during the security operations is likely to have put an end to any hope negotiations between the army-backed government and the Muslim Brotherhood. In fact, allegations of violence on the part of the Brotherhood supporters could be used to reinstate a ban on the group, including its political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party. With less than 20% of Egyptians supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, it is most likely that outrage at this action would emanate from outside of Egypt, rather than inside, posing a threat from radicalised actors entering the nation and acting on behalf of the group.

In order for the existing government to remain effective, it is imperative not only to focus on the security situation, but the economy. Economic improvement, even with incremental change, will assure the Egyptian populace that conditions are trending upward. To many outside of Egypt, this struggle is abuot religious versus secular government. However at the root of the clashes is the dire need for economic stability at all levels of income. If the government is swift in enacting security, economic, and political reforms, internal confrontations are likely to decrease. Yet the threat will still remain in place from those who support the concept of an Islamist party-led nation.