Egyptian-Ethiopian Tensions Over Nile Dam

Ethiopia’s plan to divert a stretch of the Blue Nile for a hydroelectric dam has caused outrage in Egypt. The Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is part of a major investment project to boost power exports. The dam will have a capacity equivalent to six nuclear power plants.

Ethiopia, which is the source of the Blue Nile, believes that it could wean itself off of food aid by irrigating the river, however some experts say that the reserve could cause nearly 20% reduction of the water supply to Egypt and Sudan. A colonial agreement gives Egypt and Sudan the right to use up to 90% of the Nile’s water. In 2010, six countries attempted to create a new arrangement for redistribution of Nile waters, but Egypt and Sudan refused to enter any agreement that affected their share of the water supply.

Egyptians see the building of the dam as a threat to national survival. As a desert nation with very little rainfall, the growing population is increasingly dependent on the water supply. The nation relies on the Nile for 98 per cent of its irrigation, and estimates show that Egypt will require an additional 21 billion cubic metres of water per year by 2050 to meet the needs of a projected population of 150 million. Supporters of the dam say Egypt could solve the crisis by being more efficient with water usage; opponents argue that Egypt already recycles up to 15 billion cubic metres of water.

Escalating Tensions

In a surprise move in late May, Ethiopia decided to proceed with the project days after a state visit by Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi. The Ethiopian government says a scientific report ensures that the dam will do “no appreciable harm” to Sudan and Egypt downstream. The report, which was to be released in early June, is still shrouded in secrecy.

The Egyptian Parliament denounced Prime Minister Hashim Kandil for failing to prevent the construction. One MP shouted, “Egypt will turn to a graveyard… We have to stop the construction of this dam first before entering negotiations.” Egypt’s Foreign Minister is planning a visit to Addis Ababa on 16 June to continue discussions.

In early June, senior Egyptian politicians were unknowingly caught on live television discussion options with President Morsi. Ayman Nour, head of Egypt’s Ghad party, suggested leaking false reports that Egypt was building up its air power. Younis Makhyoun, leader of the al-Nour party, suggested supporting Ethiopian rebels, or as a last resort, destroying the dam. The “secret” meeting triggered heavy backlash. Egypt has not issued an official apology for the broadcast; one member tweeted she was sorry members of the meeting were unknowingly broadcast. Opposition leader Mohamed El Baradei was invited but did not attend the meeting. He tweeted sincere apologies to the people and governments of Ethiopia and Sudan.

Egypt’s ambassador to Ethiopia has been summoned to explain the hostile remarks.

Meanwhile, President Morsi gave a speech to supporters on 10 June, in which he announced that “all options are open” in dealing with the situation. Morsi said to a cheering crowd, “We are not calling for war, but we will never permit our water security to be threatened.” Morsi received a standing ovation after quoting from an old Egyptian song, “If it diminishes by one drop, our blood is the alternative.”

A spokesman for the Ethiopian prime minister called Morsi’s speech irresponsible, and promised that the project would proceed. “Of course we are going to go ahead with the project, because we believe we are justified.”

Nile Basin Nations Water Relations

Disputes over the Nile’s water supply span over a century. Colonial treaties promised Egypt a vast majority of the water supply, and an agreement following Sudan’s independence in 1956 allocated 55.5 billion cubic metres of the Nile to Egypt, and 18.5 billion to Sudan, totalling 87 per cent of the Nile flow. However, the treaties provided nothing to nations further upstream.

Ethiopia and other nations believe the colonial treaties are antiquated. Ethiopian Foreign Minister Tedros Adhanom said, “Ethiopia cannot remain poor. It must utilise its resources to lift its people out of poverty.”

The Nile Basin Initiative was created in 1998 to bring together all ten states that border on the Nile to discuss the issue, but have failed to reach an agreement as the Cairo government guards historic treaties. The failure to agree on water redistribution has created deep bitterness among other Nile nations. In March 2011, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, Burundi and Tanzania signed a new agreement to overturn the colonial-era treaties and replace them with a more equitable utilisation of the river.

Egypt-Ethiopia Relations

Many in Ethiopia believe that Egypt is the source of many of its troubles. In 1959, Egyptian President Gamal Abdul Nasser excluded Ethiopia from the planning of the Aswan Dam. In response, Ethiopian

Emperor Haile Selassie caused the separation of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church from its sister church in Alexandria, ending a 1,600 year relationship.

In response to the Emperor’s actions, Nasser backed the Eritrean revolt against Ethiopia, and encouraged Somali Muslims to fight for Ethiopia’s Ogaden region. Eritrea’s eventual independence caused Ethiopia to become a landlocked nation, a source of great anger. Eritrea backs the Egyptian position over the Nile.

Meanwhile, Ethiopia continues with the project, with a $1 billion loan from China. The project, according to the Ethiopian government, began in May and is 21 percent complete.

MENA Report

Algeria

Algeria in Limbo as Bouteflika’s Health Remains In Question

Bahrain

US Embassy Warning to Civilians in Bahrain

3 June 2013 – The U.S. Embassy has issued a security warning about possible threats toward Americans in Bahrain.  The message states, “Extremist elements of certain opposition groups have conducted surveillance on U.S. persons and locations where U.S. persons are known to reside and/or spend leisure time, including locations associated with night-life activities. These facilities and locations include, but are not limited to, the U.S. Embassy, the Naval Support Facility, the Bahrain School and American Alley.”

Diplomatic officials said there are no specific threats against U.S. personnel or facilities. There have been no attacks on U.S. citizens in Bahrain to date. However, Bahrain has experienced demonstrations stemming from the Shiite majority demanding a greater political voice in the Sunni-dominated political system. A segment of opposition appears to be growing increasingly radical in recent months.

A separate message from the US navy urged service members and families to remain vigilant and report any suspicious activity to base security personnel. Bahrain is home to the U.S. Navy 5th Fleet, with nearly 6,500 US personnel in the region.

Bombing suspects arrested, confess

2 June, 2013 – Bahraini police arrested ten suspects in connection to what is being called a “terrorist attack” on 29 May.  A homemade explosive wounded seven policemen in Bani Jamra, six miles west of the nation’s capital.

Police initially responded to a terrorist blast in the region, finding rioters burning tyres in the village. After restoring order, as security patrols proceeded on foot to douse the tyres, the homemade device was detonated by remote.  At least two policemen are in critical condition; one officer has required a leg amputation. Four officers sustained lesser injuries. Though police have been targeted previously, this bombing marked the most police casualties in a single attack.

Bahraini security identified suspects “from a house known to be used by conspirators to hatch terrorist plots”. Police confiscated weapons and equipment in the process of arresting ten suspects. According to the police, four of the suspects have confessed

Egypt

Egyptian Court Rules Legislature was Illegally Elected

2 June, 2013- Egypt’s Supreme Constitutional Court has ruled that the nation’s Islamist-dominated legislature and constitutional panel were illegally elected. The ruling says that Shura Council, the legislature’s upper house (and the only active legislature since the dissolution of the lower chamber in June) would not be dissolved until the parliament’s lower chamber is elected later this year or early in 2014. Of the chamber’s 270 members, 180 were elected, and 90 were appointed by Morsi. Five percent of its members are Christians, and four percent are women. The Shura Council was elected by about seven percent of the electorate last year.

It is still unknown whether the ruling will impact the charter which was drafted by the 100-member constitutional panel. The constitution was adopted following a nationwide vote in December with only 35% voter turnout. Critics believe the charter restricts freedoms and gives clerics a say in legislation.

To prevent confusion Morsi’s office issued a statement emphasising that all state institutions must respect the constitution; and that the Shura Council will continue to function as the nation’s legislature.  However, the ruling adds to the political instability that has gripped the country since the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak in 2011.

Egyptian- Ethiopian Tensions Escalate over Controversial Dam

31 May, 2013 – In a highly contested move, Ethiopia has started to divert a stretch of the Blue Nile—one of the two major tributaries to the Nile River— to make way for a hydroelectric dam. The Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is part of £ 8 billion investment project to boost power exports. The dam is being built in the Benishangul-Gumuz region bordering Sudan, and will eventually have a capacity equivalent to six nuclear power plants.

The reserve of the dam requires 74 billion cubic metres of water, which Ethiopia plans to meet in five years. This could cut off over 20% of water to Egypt. Egypt and Sudan object to the dam, saying that it violates a colonial-era agreement, which gives them rights to 90% of the Nile’s water. Ethiopia decided to go ahead with the project just days after a state visit by Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi, a move that has been called “extremely humiliating to Egyptians” by Morsi’s opposition.

In a few days, experts from Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan will announce the findings of a study into the impact of the Ethiopian dam on the Nile’s flow. Egypt’s growing population is increasingly dependent on the water supply, with the nation’s National Planning Institute estimating that Egypt will require an additional 21 billion cubic metres of water per year by 2050 – above its current annual quota of 55 billion metres – to meet the needs of a projected population of 150 million.

Opposition leaders have suggested that in retaliation, Egypt could close the strategic Suez Canal to ships from nations such as China, which are helping Ethiopia to build the dam. Hamdeen Sabbahi,
co-leader of the National Salvation Front, stated that Egypt is capable of prohibiting ships from transiting the Suez Canal “until they stop harming Egypt’s interests.”

A source within the government stated that if Ethiopia fails to reach an agreement, Egypt could take the matter to International Court of Justice (ICJ).

Egypt Sends More Forces to Control Sinai Peninsula

Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi sent dozens of tanks and hundreds of soldiers to Sinai following the kidnap of seven Egyptian security officers. The kidnappings underscored a security vacuum in the peninsula, which borders both Israel and the Gaza Strip. Following the 2011 revolution in Egypt, the region has been rife with criminal and terrorist activity as militants have taken advantage of the absence of security forces. Smuggling, bombing of gas pipelines, and attacks on police stations have become prevalent.

The kidnappers, who have since released the abducted security officers, sought the release of their group members who had been jailed for deadly attacks on a tourist hotel and a police station.

Morsi initially sought accommodation, issuing a statement saying he would be “vigilant in protecting the souls of all, be they the kidnapped or the kidnappers.” However, days later, Morsi had changed his stance, and stated that “all available means” would be used to free the men. Egyptian forces shut down two border crossings and deployed the largest military movement in Sinai since August 2012.

Egyptian human rights organizations warned the government against a “short-sighted security solution” that did not address the grievances of Sinai’s residents.

Iraq

Wave of Violence Continues in Iraq

2 June, 2013 – Iraq has been hit by a wave of violence that killed over 600 people in May, raising fears of all-out sectarian conflict. On 2 June, an attack in the western Province of Anbar killed seven people as gunmen kidnapped five others .

Armed men killed three Syrian truck drivers, setting their vehicles on fire near the town of Al-Rutba, near the Syrian Border. Near the site, the gunman kidnapped a policeman and a civilian, as further north, gunmen abducted another civilian and two more police officers.

Jordan

60,000 Syrian Refugees Return Home

30 May, 2013 – Nearly 60,000 Syrian refugees have left the Jordan, and returned home. Some refugees intend to fight President Bashar Assad’s regime, other have left because living conditions in their camp have become too difficult.

Lebanon- Syria

Pro-Syrian Forces Gain Victory in Qasair

3 June, 2013 – Syrian pro-government forces and their Lebanese Hezbollah allies have gained control of the border town of Qusair. The victory is a severe setback to fighters opposing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. After two weeks of heavy fighting, the town has been reduced to piles of concrete.

Qusair is a strategic town; victory for the Syrian government would strengthen Assad’s control over the province of Homs, which would connect Damascus with the Alawite strongholds on the Mediterranean coast. A victory in Qusair for the rebels protects their supply lines through Lebanon.

Over 500 rebels have been killed, and a 1,000 wounded during the two weeks of combat. Only 400 rebel fighters remained, and were outgunned by Syrian forces and Hezbolla. The remaining survivors retreated, escaping through a corridor the attackers deliberately left open to encourage flight.

On 2 June, clashes erupted between Sunnis and Alawites in Tripoli, wounding at least 14 people. In addition, three rockets from Syria struck north-eastern Lebanon; only a day after 18 rockets and mortar rounds hit the Hezbollah stronghold in Lebanon’s eastern Baalbek region. Last week, the Lebanese parliament delayed general elections scheduled for this month for another 17 months, citing a deteriorating security situation.

Libya

Libya withholds Saif al Islam Gaddafi from International Criminal Court

Saif al Islam Gaddafi, son of the late leader Moammar Gaddafi, was captured in 2011 and remains in the custody of a local militia. The ICC has indicted him on war crimes charges stemming from the 2011 Libyan uprising. The charges include: indirect co-perpetrator of murder and persecution as crimes against humanity, use of security forces to carry out attacks against civilians, and assuming “essential tasks” against government opposition.

Because Gaddafi is not in official custody, Libya is not prepared to host a trial. Further, members of Libya’s judiciary believe Saif al-Islam should be tried in Libya, to revive faith in the Libyan judiciary.

In Zintan, where Gaddafi is being held, he faces additional charges based on actions in 2012, after the ousting of his father. He is held for complicity in exchanging information, obtaining documents that threaten national security and insulting the national flag.

Judges at The Hague recognise Libya’s efforts to restore the rule of law, however they state that Libya continues to “face substantial difficulties in exercising fully its judicial powers across the entire territory.”

Turkey

Turkish Activists Issue Demands

5 June, 2013 – As the nation enters nears its first full week of unrest; Turkish activists have presented a list of demands which could anti-government protests in Turkey.

Turkish Deputy Prime Minister, Bulent Arinc, met with leaders of the protest group as Prime Minister Edrogan left Turkey for a diplomatic visit to Northern Africa. Arinc apologises to protesters for what he called a “wrong and unjust” crackdown on a sit-in to prevent authorities from ripping up trees in Istanbul’s landmark Taksim Square. The heavy handed response to the peaceful protest sparked a nationwide response against what demonstrators see as Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian rule.

The activist leaders, known as the “Taksim Solidarity Platform”, consist of academics, architects, and environmentalists who are opposed to the redevelopment of Taksim Square, the only green space remaining in Istanbul’s commercial district. The group denounced Erdogan’s “vexing” style and called for the halt of Taksim Square redevelopment plans. The group also called for a ban on the use of tear gas by police, the immediate release of detained protesters, and eliminating restrictions on freedom of expression and assembly. Finally, the group demanded that all officials responsible for the violent crackdowns be removed from office.

Yemen

Yemen Launches Offensive Against al-Qaeda

6 June, 2013 – Over ten thousand Yemeni troops, backed by tanks, helicopters, and fighter jets, launched an offensive in the southern Yemen province of Hadramawt to drive al-Qaeda militants from the area. At least seven suspected militant have been killed and many injured. The Yemeni military also destroyed weapon caches and took equipment, explosives and motorcycles. Civilians in the region have been instructed to stay indoors. One military commander was killed and five others were wounded.

The operation is the result of efforts by Yemen’s new government to force remaining al-Qaeda militants out of their strongholds. US analysts call the al-Qaeda branch in Yemen one of the world’s most active terror networks.

Former rebels are engaging in Yemen’s six-month National Dialogue, an attempt to  bring all of Yemen’s rival groups, political parties, religious and tribal leaders together for discussion of a new political system as the country prepares to draft a new constitution.

Troubled Waters: Suez Canal Corridor Development Project Problematic for Egypt

Background: Egypt’s government is in the beginning stages of
what some have called “the development project of the century.” The Suez Canal Corridor (SCC) development project is a comprehensive project to transform the Suez corridor into a major economic zone and prospering waterfront region.

The SCC project is intended to work through joint public and private partnerships. Developments include construction of a major Mediterranean seaport in Eastern Port Said, a “Technology Valley” in Ismailia, and an industrial zone west of the Gulf of Suez. In addition, the project features residential centres, agricultural projects spanning the length of the canal, and three new tunnels which will connect the two banks of the Canal Zone, referred to as a “bridge for development” in the Sinai.

The project is expected to take 20 years to implement, with hopes of attracting nearly US $100 billion in investments. The SCC development is estimated to create nearly one million job opportunities in Port Said, the Gulf of Suez, and Ismailia, and represents a major component of President Mohamed Morsi’s ‘renaissance’ electoral programme.

While implementation is beginning in 2013, plans for the project date back to the era of Anwar Al-Sadat. Essam Sharaf, who was Egypt’s Minister of Transportation under Hosni Mubarak, and erstwhile Prime Minister for the eight month transitional period between the end of the Mubarak regime and the current government, worked on the project for years, and became its chief architect.

In late April, Egypt’s National Authority for Tunnels signed an agreement with Spanish firm Getinsa Paymacotas to conduct technical studies on building three new tunnels underneath the Suez Canal.  Two of the tunnels will be allocated for roads, and the third will be for a railway. Several countries, including the US, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, India, Holland, Russia, China and Japan have made offers to invest in the project. Egyptian government has already signed an investment agreement with Chinese TEDA Corporation to develop part of a joint industrial zone near the Suez Canal. The Egyptian government will soon be announcing four additional companies which will be awarded contracts to work on the project. Leaders are also in talks with the Deauville Partnership with Arab Countries in Transition, an international effort launched by the G8. The Egyptian government, led by President Mohamed Morsi, hopes the organization will provide international investment to help fund the project.

Hindrances

Egyptian government circumvents advisory board: Despite the economic stimulus that SCC development promises, it has been met with many hindrances and backlash. On 24 April, the nine-member advisory team, led by  Essam Sharaf, resigned from the project after discovering that the Morsi government had created and was implementing different plans to those suggested by the advisory board. In a statement released on 25 May, the team explains that the government had cut off all means of communication with the advisory board for four months.

“We are aware of the possible damages that are likely to affect the northwest area of the Suez project as a result of implementing the government’s vision, amid the late execution plans and inappropriate policies and legislations,” the statement said.

Problems with legislative framework: A former member of the advisory team revealed that the draft law which the Morsi government had submitted  to the upper parliament (Shura Council) was highly contentious. One component allowed for development  the Suez Canal region without consulting the team. Other sections of the draft law are equally contentious: Article 1 of the draft law states that the borders of the Suez Canal region are to be outlined by presidential decree, and Article 2 says that general authority and the governing system would be decided by the president.

These articles are in direct opposition to Article 5 of the Egyptian constitution, which declares that the Egyptian people are the source of authority. As it stands, the draft legislation does not appear to guarantee popular or legislative overview.

On 23 May, workers at the Suez Canal Authority in Port Said stormed a conference on the project, protesting the projects terms, and the ruling party, the Muslim Brotherhood. As attendees evacuated the conference, several protesters held their shoes aloft—a very strong insult.  Individuals attending protests do not oppose the project itself. Many oppose the draft bill, and have fears for the long term ramifications, including worries that excessive foreign investment could result in risking Egyptian sovereignty of Suez Canal. Others fear that the project puts investors in beneficial positions while not guaranteeing returns to Egyptian workers or the economy. Still others are concerned that international efforts in the region could increase the threats to Egyptian national security, which are already substantial in the Sinai Peninsula.

Attempts at Reassurance:

In a speech at an SCC development conference, Egyptian Prime Minister Hisham Qandil tried to reassure the public, emphasising that the draft law can be amended while being debated by the Shura Council. Qandil also stressed that the draft law takes into account all national security and armed forces criteria, and emphasises sovereignty of the region, indicating that the projects on the land will be usufruct.

Qandil announced, “We are keenly aware of and determined to safeguard the security of our homeland. This is the position of the government and the opposition, without a doubt. There are no land sales involved in this huge project, only lease contracts.” Qandil also stated that some projects in Suez Canal region will start immediately, including the  development of the tunnels that will pass under the Suez Canal.

The statements by Qandil have not assuaged fears, particularly as the Shura Council is dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood. The public remains concerned that the draft SCC project law will be endorsed without public or legislative opinions taken into consideration. Requests have been made by the public to delay the project’s implementation until the new parliament is elected. The Egyptian military has requested deferment until the varying state bodies can guarantee that the project would be free of violations to national security. There is no word on whether these requests will be addressed.

Maritime Impact: Roughly 10% of the world’s merchandise and 20% of all ships pass through the Suez Canal. As political factors are addressed, the project is aimed at turning the canal into “a global centre for industry and logistics.”

The project will evolve in three phases: Phase 1 will focus on developing Port Said and Suez ports by 2017, and will establish a system of trans-shipment to turn those ports into global warehouses. Port Said’s 17,000 acres will include the establishment of facilities to serve the navigation traffic, businesses, tourism and industrial projects. A second container terminal (CT2) will be created on the south side of the port, and will encompass 540,000 square metres. The storage facility in east Port Said will serve giant vessels that wish to decrease the weight of their cargo as they head to Asia, Europe and North America. The plan also incorporates new wave-breaker and dock walls and railways and telecommunications equipment.

Port Said Expansion, Stages 1 through 3 (expected completion 2030):

The Port will expand to increase capacity in the General Cargo Terminal, Liquid cargo Terminal, Multi Purpose Terminal,
Dry Bulk Terminal, Agri-Shipments Terminal, Roll-On Ships Terminal and Bunker Terminal.
Expansion will also see the development of a Ship Yard.

Near Suez, the region of Ain Sukhna will serve as a base for export industries and economic activities. As in Port Said, Ain Sukhna will serve giant vessels that wish to decrease the weight of their cargo as they head to Asia, Africa and Latin America.

The second phase will include establishing an industrial zone that
hosts a variety of industries such as production of machinery, tractors, consumer goods, fertilisers, carpets, textiles and building supplies. The zone will span 190 km from north to south, and build upon existing infrastructure while developing light industrial zones. Plans include the establishment of packaging factories for products transported through the canal. Phase 2 will also see the establishment of ship maintenance centres along both sides of the Canal, and the establishment of light tourism projects on both sides.

The final phase will aim at setting up a “Technology Valley” in Ismailia, making it a centre for technology, commerce, communications, and tourism once the scheme gets off the ground. We have been told that there will be a “technology valley” in Ismailia, that a new tunnel will be built under the canal, and that an industrial zone will spring up on both sides of the canal, to be synergised by the establishment of a world-class technological university.

There has been no suggestion of anticipated disruption to maritime traffic.

MENA Report (10 May 2013)

Terrorism

Yemen: Pipeline Bombing

30 April: A main pipeline linking oil fields in Yemen’s eastern Marib province to an export terminal on the Red Sea has been attacked by an armed group, almost halting the flow of oil. The day before, the same group attacked Marib’s power lines, leaving the province in “total darkness”.

The pipeline in question runs 200 miles from Safer oil fields to the export terminal in the western Hudaydah province. It is frequently under attack in the Wadi Abida area; the last such incident occurred on 8 April. Electricity Minister Saleh Sumai has accused tribesmen loyal to the former president of carrying out the attacks.

Yemen produces about 300,000 barrels of oil a day, mostly for export. Production lost due to pipeline attacks has cost the government more than $1 billion in 2012 and more than $4 billion in revenue since February 2011.

Kidnapping

Yemen: International Red Cross Workers Kidnapped

8 May:  Two Indian employees of the international Red Cross were kidnapped and released by armed members of the Mariakisha tribe in southern Yemen. The gunmen intercepted the workers in Jaar and led them to a mountainous region. Negotiations lasted more than three hours; the victims are now in Aden.

On Monday, gunmen from the same tribe kidnapped two Egyptian technicians working at a cement factory in Abyan. The tribesmen seek the release of a tribe member jailed seven years ago on murder charges.

Syria: Rebels Kidnap UN Peacekeepers in Golan

8 May: Syrian members of the rebel Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade are holding four Filipino UN peacekeepers at the ceasefire line between Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The group claims that the peacekeepers were in danger after clashes in the area, and took them for safe keeping.

The peacekeepers were detained as they patrolled Position 86, on the Syria and Israeli-occupied border of the Golan Heights, an area near where 21 Filipino observers were held for 3 days by the same group in March. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon condemned the detention and called for the peacekeepers’ immediate release.

While initial reports described the action as hostage-taking, the rebel unit denied it.”The brigade does not want this issue blown out of proportion like the last incident,” said a rebel from the group.

Algeria

Bouteflika Recovering from Stroke

7 May: The Algerian government has announced that President Abdelaziz Bouteflika is improving from a transient ischemia (mini-stroke), but still needs rest. The president suffered the stroke on 27 April and was flown to the French military hospital of Val de Grace.

Following the announcement of his illness, there were few updates about the president’s health. This latest statement gave no indication of how long Bouteflika would need to rest. Though he had been known to be sick for some time, he was popularly believed to be gearing up to run in next year’s presidential elections.

Algeria and Egypt Strengthen Bilateral Counterterrorism Cooperation

7 May: Algeria and Egypt have established a bilateral contact group to strengthen bilateral security cooperation.

Egypt

Morsi Reshuffles Egyptian Cabinet

7 May:  Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi swore in nine new ministers in the second cabinet reshuffle since August, in a hope to boost Egypt’s economic portfolio. Morsi believes the changes will aid in completing the development of the public performance in Egypt, and urged citizens to give the new government an opportunity to work on meeting their demands.

Several ministers which bave been appointed are members of Morsi’s political party, the Muslim Brotherhood. Finance Minister Fayyad Abdel-Monem Hassanin, an economics professor Al-Azhar University, and Minister of International Cooperation and Planning Amr Darrag, are both members of Morsi’s party, the Muslim Brotherhood. Darrag is a senior member of Muslim Brotherhood’s political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP). Both ministers will be critical in handling negotiations with the IMF for a crucial $4.8-billion rescue loan.

Essam al-Erian, deputy chief of the FJP, stated that the aim of the reshuffle is to “confront the economic crisis and to conclude the agreement with the IMF with a new vision, and to confront the energy crises.”

National Salvation Front (NSF), opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood, sees the reshuffle as a further step toward Islamist domination of the government. One member of the NSF stated,  “They control the government more and more and the MB process is going on, and this means they intend to commit electoral fraud in the coming parliamentary elections. We reject domination of the MB and their control over the society, as this cabinet reshuffle puts everything in the hands of the MB’s guidance office.”

Amr Moussa, a leading member of the NSF, believes new cabinet reshuffle is a new step toward “comprehensive MB domination” in Egypt, rather than a step toward national consensus.

Egypt claims successes closing down Gaza smuggling tunnels

6 May: The head of engineering for the Egyptian Armed Forces, Major General Tahir Abdullah, announced that Egyptian security forces had successfully demolished 154 of 276 tunnels between Egypt and Gaza. Around 137 tunnels were destroyed twice. A recent Reuters report states there are around 1,000 tunnels between Gaza and Egypt; other reports claim the number is higher, still others say it is much lower.

In the last few days, authorities have also announced the seizure of a lifeboat and 10 vehicles which were being smuggled from Egypt to Gaza, and a cache of drugs and weapons near the Salloum land port in western Egypt.

Libya

Gunmen Surround Libyan Ministry, Present List of Demands

7 May:  Armed men in vehicles with machineguns and anti-aircraft guns have surrounded the foreign and justice ministries for over a week, demanding the Libyan government’s resignation. On 5 March, under pressure from gunmen, the General National Congress pushed through a controversial law to exclude members of Gadaffi’s former regime from holding public posts, even if they switched to support the rebels during the course of the 2011 civil war.

A leader of the militias stated, “We are determined to continue our movement until the departure of (Prime Minister) Ali Zeidan.” The militias had promised to lift their siege if the law was passed. Zeidan’s government has recently launched a campaign to remove the militias from Tripoli.

Morocco

Morocco captures two terrorist cells

Palestine

China to Host Bilateral talks with Palestine, Israel

Saudi Arabia (KSA)

Saudi Arabia Releases 166 Former AQ militants from Rehab

7 May:   Saudi Arabia has released 166 former al Qaeda members after undergoing long-term state-sponsored counselling programme, called “Munasaha” to reintegrate them into normal society. Sixty two members of the “deviant group” as they are known, were released in Jeddah after completing the counselling programme at the Prince Mohammed Bin Naif Centre for Counselling and Care. An additional 104 former militants were also released in Riyadh.

The prisoners are required to participate in follow-up programmes for emotional rehabilitation and reintegration. They will be monitored by both government agencies and members of the counselling committees of the centre. The centres will also assist the former militants in getting their original jobs back, or securing new jobs.

Sudan

Sudanese traders killed by gunmen 

3 May: Eleven Sudanese traders were killed by unknown gunmen as they crossed into South Sudanese territory. A South Sudan military spokesman said attackers ambushed three trucks at a trading center near the border town of Renk. The bodies were later discovered by another group of traveling traders; and the South Sudanese military dispatched a contingent of soldiers to seek the attackers. When they caught up to the “gangsters” gunfire was exchanged as they fled to Sudanese territory.

The incident occurs nearly two weeks after an agreement between South Sudan and Sudan to open 10 border crossings to increase the movement of goods and people between the two nations.

Tunisia

Tunisian Troops clash with Militants

1 May: Tunisian troops have clashed with around 50 armed Salafi militants in the Mount Chaambi border region, and now have the area surrounded. Last week, Tunisian forces began to hunt for two groups, one hiding in the mountainous region, and another in the Kef region on the Algerian border. Authorities were originally looking for 11 terrorists linked to al Qaeda, but have learned that the group had recruited youths from Kasserine and Mali.

The defence ministry said that the situation near the Algerian border was “under control”, and they were working with Algerian intelligence to gain information. However, in the Mount Chaambi area, the militants have laid homemade land mines throughout the region, which have wounded around 15 soldiers and members of the national guard. The troop have since found grenades, military and homemade bombs, documents on how to make homemade bombs, coded documents, maps and mobile phones being used to make calls abroad. The operations are being carried out primarily by the Tunisian army, who have the only units capable of detecting land mines. The national guard are playing a secondary role.

Bassem Haj Yahia, a guard who lost a leg after a land mine explosion, said the army was facing an organised and well-armed adversary. “It’s like they are installed in a small village where they have their hideouts, a training site and some equipment.”

The currently ruling Ennahda party has recognised the terrorist threat facing Tunisia, verbalising warnings that groups linked to Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) were penetrating its borders. To date, 37 people have been caught and jailed, according to the interior ministry.

United Arab Emirates

Three Emiratis arrested in Tanzanian church bombing

8 May: Three UAE citizens have been arrested in Tanzania in connection with the bombing of a church in Arusha. The Vatican’s ambassador to Tanzania, Archbishop Francisco Montecillo Padilla, was attending the official church opening when the explosion occurred. He escaped unharmed, though the attack killed two people and wounded six.

One Saudi and three Emeratis were arrested on Tuesday. Investigators are working to determine the type of device used in the attack on the church. UAE foreign minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed condemned the attack.

Saudi ambassador Hani Abdallah Mo’mena said he was on his way to Arusha, believing  that the group was there as tourists and the issues is “mere suspicion”.

Japan and UAE sign nuclear cooperation agreement, agree on oil concessions

3 May: Japan and the United Arab Emirates signed a nuclear cooperation agreement during a visit to the UAE by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The agreement, which called for peaceful use of nuclear energy, was signed in Dubai, and the UAE also agreed to extend an oil concession agreement with Japan’s Abu Dhabi Oil Co. adding a new zone.

In mid July, the UAE will begin building two of four nuclear power plants, which will being produce electricity by 2017. Each plant will have a capacity of 1,400 megawatts. The project is expected to be completed and fully operational by 2020. The UAE hopes that nuclear energy will provide up to a quarter of the nation’s electricity needs.

Approximately one third of UAE crude oil and petrol derivatives go to Japan. The UAE exports 800,000 barrels of oil to Japan daily, and 5.5 million tonnes of natural gas.

Abe said that “stability and prosperity of the Middle East is directly connected to the prosperity of international society and Japan.”

Yemen

AQAP Members Assassinate Director of Military Intelligence

27 April: Two masked gunmen, members of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), killed the director of military intelligence in the Hadramout province. The shooters were riding a motorcycle and fired at Colonel Ahmed Abdul-Razzak outside of his home in Mukalla.

Approximately 60 military and security officials have been killed in Yemen over the last two years. Yemeni officials place the blame on the Yemen based AQAP, mostly in the southern region of the nation. AQAP is considered the most strategic threat to the Yemeni government and its neighboring oil-rich Saudi Arabia.

President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who came to power in February 2012, is charged with restoring security in the nation, and protecting oil shipping routes in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Southern Leaders Quit National Dialogue meeting

4 May: Two leaders of Yemen’s Southern Movement have quite national dialog as talks failed to reach a solution to the secessionist issue. Ahmed bin Farid al-Suraimah and Ali Ba-Odah left the talks due to the belief that their aims toward secession had been marginalized, and the dialog will not meet the needs of southern Yemenis. Other leaders from the south have refused to join the talks until the Sanaa government withdraws its troops from the south.

The talks, which began on 18 March, are scheduled to run for six months. The dialog is intended to mend the split between the northern and southern regions, and draft a new constitution in time for general elections in February 2014. The secession issue dates back to the start of the Yemeni civil war in 1994, when southerners complained of being politically and economically marginalised and discriminated against.

Illegal Weapons Seizure

5 May: Yemen’s Defence Ministry announced a seizure of a boat carrying 20,000 guns in the southwestern Taiz province on Yemen’s Red Sea coast. The boat was seized after soldiers in Bab el-Mandeb strait clashed with the armed crew members on the boat, and managed to capture the boat’s captain after a gunfight. Some of the crew members fled.

In the last six months, Yemeni forces have seized four boats loaded with arms. The weapons are suspected to have originated from Turkey. In December, a shipment came through Aden Port carrying guns hidden in biscuit containers. The guns were made using false brand names, which has slowed down investigations. The Yemeni government has not stated who is responsible for smuggling arms into the country.

Three Military Pilots Killed in AQ Ambush

8 May: Militants, suspected to be members of AQAP, killed three Yemeni air force pilots as they travelled to Al Anad air base in the Lahj province. Two militants on a motorcycle opened fire with a machine gun as the car containing the pilots slowed for a road bump. The three pilots all held the rank of colonel in the airforce. Two were trainers.

According to officials, the gunmen fled the scene, and believe that the attackers had been monitoring the pilots’ route and schedule to plan their ambush.

MENA Report

Terrorism

Canadian Authorities Thwart Terror plot linked to al Qaeda in Iran

24 April: Canadian authorities foiled a potential threat and took two men into custody for plotting to destroy a Toronto passenger train. Chiheb Esseghaier of Montreal, and Raed Jaser of Toronto were charged with conspiring to interfere with transport facilities on behalf of a terrorist organisation and conspiring to commit murder.

According to officials, the men’s plot allegedly had support from al Qaeda’s network inside Iran, although there appeared to be no sign of state sponsorship. Iran has denied any links with the suspects.

In court in Montréal, Esseghaier, who declined representation by a court appointed lawyer, said “The conclusions were made based on acts and words which are only appearances.”  In Toronto, a lawyer for Jaser said he would “defend himself vigorously.” Jaser’s lawyer also questioned the timing of the arrests, which occurred as the Canadian parliament debates an anti-terrorism bill which could reintroduce preventative detention and investigative hearings. Neither suspect entered a plea.

The investigation began following a tip from a concerned imam in the Toronto Muslim community, who feared that some youths in the city were being corrupted by extremists. The investigation was a collaborative effort between the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) and the US Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI). RCMP Cheif Superintendent Jennifer Strachan said that the alleged attack was “definitely in the planning stage but not imminent.” A spokesperson for VIA Rail, which operates passenger rail services across Canada, said the public was never in danger.

RCMP Assistant Commissioner James Malizia believes that the two suspects received “direction and guidance” from al Qaeda elements in Iran. Esseghair’s LinkedIn page briefly displayed an image of an al Qaeda’s flag which has been adopted by several AQ affiliates. The image has since been removed.

At the outset, the link between al Qaeda and Iran seems incompatible. Al Qaeda espouses a radical anti-Shia ideology that starkly contradicts the beliefs of the majority Shia Iran. However, a large number of high-ranking al-Qaeda figures live in Iran, having fled from Afghanistan in 2001 when US forces and the Northern Alliance headed towards Kabul to overthrow the Taliban government. Among those who are said to have fled to Iran are Osama Bin Laden’s son, Saad Bin Laden; and former security chief Saif al-Adel. The Iranian government never publicly acknowledged their presence, but the two were allegedly held under house arrest by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard.

According to US intelligence, Saif al-Adel’s father-in-law, Mustafa Hamid, is the link between al-Qaeda and the Iranian government. In the 1990s, Hamid “reportedly negotiated a secret relationship between Osama Bin Laden and Iran, allowing many al Qaeda members safe transit through Iran to Afghanistan.” The US believes that Hamid negotiated safe relocation to Iran for many high-ranking al-Qaeda members and their families in 2001. The AQ members and their families were restricted and watched by the Revolutionary Guard, but it is believed that some members were able to establish contacts with the al Qaeda network, raising funds and providing assistance unbeknownst to Iranian authorities. In 2009, and again in 2011, the US government added several Iran-based al Qaeda operatives to its list of global terrorists, including Mustafa Hamid, Saif al Adel, and Saad Bin Laden, who was later killed in a drone strike in Pakistan.

In February 2012, the US Treasury Department designated the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) “for its support to terrorist groups.” A press release from Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence David S. Cohen said the designation was due to MOIS support for groups including al Qaeda, al Qaeda in Iraq, Hizballah and HAMAS, believing Iran to be involved in state-sanctioned terrorism. MOIS has provided terrorist operatives with documents, identification cards, passports and “provided money and weapons to al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)…and negotiated prisoner releases of AQI operatives.” In 2012, Canada also severed diplomatic ties with Iran over the nation’s support for terrorist groups, as well as its nuclear programme.

Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi dismissed claims of the Canadian police linking the plotters to al Qaeda in Iran. “If the news that you are announcing is true, this is the most hilarious thing I’ve heard in my 64 year [sic],” Salehi said, calling al Qaeda in Iran as “a new fake issue and a really ridiculous word.”  A spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry also commented, “No shred of evidence regarding those who’ve been arrested and stand accused has been provided.”

Bail hearings are yet to be set for the defendants.

Car Bomb Attack on French Embassy in Libya

23 April:  A car bomb destroyed nearly half of the French Embassy in Libya, in the first significant attack on a Western target in Tripoli since the ousting of Ghadaffi in 2011. The bombing occurred at around 7 am local time, breaking windows, bursting a main water pipe, and damaging nearly two dozen buildings. Two French guards were injured, one critically, but most employees had not yet arrived.

Though no one has claimed responsibility, there are many speculations. The explosion came a day after the French Parliament voted to extend the deployment of those troops to neighbouring Mali, which has raised the anger of militants who are opposed to the intervention. Some Islamist militants also believe that Western powers are attempting to “seize the revolution” and rebuild Libya as a secular Western democracy.

Kidnapping

Syria, 24 April:  Chechen fighters in northern Syria have released two Orthodox bishops. Bishop Yohanna Ibrahim, head of the Aleppo Syriac Orthodox diocese, and Boulos Yaziji, head of the Aleppo Greek Orthodox diocese, were abducted on Monday. Ibrahim is known for mediating the release of kidnap victims, particularly in cases involving the kidnapping of Christians.

The bishops were on a mission to free two priests who had been kidnapped two months ago when they were stopped in their car by an armed group in the village of Kafr Dael, an Aleppo province near the Turkish border. The driver and another person were forced out of the vehicle, where the driver was killed by a gunshot to the head.

Syria’s religious affairs ministry issued a statement on Tuesday saying “there is evidence that those who kidnapped the bishops were Chechen mercenaries working under the leadership of Al-Nusra Front.”

The French “Oeuvre d’Orient” group said that the two victims were already at Saint Elias cathedral in Aleppo.

Bahrain

23 April: Bahrain authorities revealed that they prevented possible attacks before the nation’s Formula One race last weekend. The Interior Ministry reported that a weapons cache, including 1,000 homemade firebombs, was found in a warehouse Saturday, a day before the race. Two girls were arrested for plotting to carry out an attack.

Egypt

Egypt’s Justice Minister Steps Down 

21 April: Egypt’s justice minister, Ahmed Mekki, submitted his resignation on Sunday. The move indicates strong disapproval of President Mohammed Morsi’s handling of a prolonged showdown with the Egypt’s judiciary, which is the sole branch of government not dominated by Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood allies. Some judges believe Morsi has taken actions to undermine their authority.

On Saturday, Morsi announced he would reshuffle the cabinet amid calls for Mekki’s dismissal from both supporters and opposition of the Morsi regime. Opposition parties believe that Mekki has sided with Morsi and his policies, and the “reshuffle” would be an opportunity to infuse the judicial branch with supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood party. Morsi’s backers believe that Mekki failed to make expedient reforms to the justice system. All parties were angered following a number of acquittals of members of the Mubarak regime, including officials charged with corruption, and nearly all policemen charged with killing protesters during the 2011 uprising.

In his resignation letter, Mekki states that his resignation came as a response to pressure from the president’s opponents and supporters. He also mentioned protests on Friday by pro-Brotherhood supporters urging a “cleansing” of the judiciary, as well as calls for a new judicial reform law.

Mubarak Still in Prison, Despite Ordered Release

20 April:  An Egyptian court has ordered the release of Egypt’s ousted President Hosni Mubarak as he awaits further investigation into charges. However, Mubarak remains imprisoned on two other corruption cases. Mubarak, who has been ailing since shortly following his removal, has been in detention since 2011. He is currently in Tora prison in Cairo.

Days earlier, another court ordered Mubarak released pending his retrial in a case alleging responsibility for the deaths of nearly 900 protesters during the 2011 uprising. An appeals court in January threw out a life sentence against him.

Many Egyptians see the release of Mubarak as evidence that supporters of his regime remain in office, and the aims of the 2011 uprising were not met. Many of those who believe Mubarak’s release is justified are frustrated by changes in government since the Morsi regime has taken control.

Mubarak’s retrial in the case of the deaths which occurred during the revolution is set for 11 May.

Israel

Attempts to Kidnap IDF Soldiers on the Rise

According to the Israeli Shin Bet internal security service, 33 kidnapping attempts have been foiled since the beginning of 2013, compared with 24 thwarted attempts during all of 2012.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia Deports Men for Being “Too Handsome”

17 April: Three men from the United Arab Emirates have reportedly been deported from Saudi Arabia for being “too handsome.” The men, who were visiting to attend the annual Jenadrivah Heritage and Cultural Festival in Riyadh, were minding their own business when members of Saudi Arabia’s religious police entered the pavilion and forcibly removed them from the festival, deporting them to Abu Dhabi.

The Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice members feared female visitors could fall for them.

Luxury Rehab Centre opens for al Qaeda

21 April: Saudi Arabia has opened a luxury rehabilitation centre in Riyadh to wean al Qaeda terrorists off religious extremism. The centre, which spans approximately 10 football pitches, provides counselling and religious discussions while also providing spa treatments, an Olympic-size indoor swimming pool, a sauna, gym and a television hall. Twelve buildings will host 19 prisoners, who will have access to special suites to spend time with visiting family members, and will be rewarded for good behaviour with a two-day break with their wives. The new centre is the first to provide a luxury setting as incentive for moderation. Three additional centres are planned in regions around the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia’s al Qaeda prisoners are required to go through rehabilitation centres before they can be released from prison. “In order to fight terrorism, we must give them an intellectual and psychological balance… through dialogue and persuasion,” said Said al-Bishi, director of the rehabilitation centers. To date, 2,336 prisoners have been through these centres, with only 10% of them rejoining the “deviant minority”, as they are referred to. There have been some high-profile returns to the ranks, such as Saeed al-Shehri, who became deputy leader of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) after his treatment.

Opponents are critical of the religious content of the program which they say draws on an ultra-conservative version of Islam not so different from al-Qaeda’s own. Social scientist Khaled al-Dakheel says, “To treat the problem at its root, one should challenge jihadist thought with an enlightened philosophy, not just with other Salafist ideas that are only slightly less extreme. There must be pluralism and an acknowledgement of the rights of others to be different.”

Tunisia

Tunisia to Begin Crowd-Mapping Crime and Corruption

13 April: Tunisia’s “I-Watch” organisation launched a new online “crowd-map” for reporting cases of corruption. The site, called “Billkamcha” (slang term for someone “caught in the act”) attracted 7,000 supporters within its first 48 hours of going live.

I-Watch President Achraf Aouadi explained, “This interactive website is designed to enable the victims of corruption to immediately report what happened to them whether this corruption is financial, administrative or in the form of favouritism.” Reporters will have the option to remain anonymous while submitting information.

Critical factors which cause corruption to worsen are the acceptance by society of bribery and toleration of it, the failure of regulatory institutions, and the lack of transparency. According to statistics, 90 % of Tunisians consider corruption a crime, yet one out of three individuals has either accepted a bribe or paid it.

I-Watch will work with several lawyers to process incoming reports. The site has six active members in charge of receiving reports, and ten bloggers who will expose cases of corruption received by the site.

Tunisian Salafists storm female student hostel to stop dancing

18 April: Female university students in the Bardo district hostel in Tunis were performing the first of a weekly dance and music show when dozens of hardline Salafists broke into the premises after scaling its walls. The Salafists smashed windows and threw stones and bottles, and fled after almost an hour of disruption. There were no serious injuries. No arrests have yet been made in connection to the occurrence, although witnesses report that the police were “present and did not move”. The Interior Ministry had no comment.

According to hostel administrator Raja Madyouni, the university had now tightened security. Salafists had previously threatened female students because of their Western dress and in some cases smoking and relations with young men, according to Madyouni.

Salafists conducted several similar disturbances to what they deem to be “anti-Islamic activities”, prompting secularists to accuse them of having formed a religious police and threatening the state. The moderate Ennahda party heads the coalition government in Tunis, but Salafists are pressing for Islam to be made the law of the land. Secularists say Ennahda is doing little to safeguard individual and women’s rights.

Yemen

Yemen to stand against weapons smuggling

23 April: Yemen Foreign Minister Dr Abu Bakr al-Qirby, speaking in Sana’a at a meeting  of the UN Security Council Monitoring Group for the arms embargo on Somalia and Eritrea proclaimed that Yemen is ready to act as a partner to stand against weapons smuggling.

During the 2011 uprising in Yemen, extremists groups and weapon smugglers took advantage of the breakdown in security to turn Yemen into a weapons trafficking haven. Over 12 months, intelligence reports showed that both Ansar al-Sharia and al-Shabab in Somalia had exchanged men and weapons, which were smuggled by sea. The government is now seeking partnership with the global community to curb the trend.

Yemeni court sentences 11 al Qaeda militants

23 April: Eleven convicted al Qaeda militants were sentenced to up to 10 years in prison in a court in Sana’a. The militants were charged with forming armed gangs to destabilize the country, and planning attacks on foreign embassies and security forces.

Ahmed al-Hababi, one of the defendants, threatened to kill the judge, shouting, “We will teach you a lesson and we will drag you on the ground.” Two of the convicted raised an al Qaeda flag inside the defendants’ cage.

The sentencing occurred as militants attacked a military camp in Radda, 100 miles south of Sanaa, in a skirmish that resulted in the deaths of three soldiers and eight militants. During Yemen’s 2011 uprising, al Qaeda occupied large areas in the southern region before being driven to mountainous areas by the new government. The group has retaliated with assassinations and bombings at military compounds.