Tag Archives: Colombia

Columbia Referendum: Voters Reject FARC Peace Agreement

On 3 October, voters in Colombia shockingly rejected a landmark peace agreement with FARC rebels. In the shock referendum result, 50.2% voted against the deal, which was signed last week by President Juan Manuel Santos and FARC leader Timoleon Jimenez after nearly four years of negotiations. The deal needed to be ratified by Colombians in order for it to come into force.

Colombians were asked to endorse or reject the peace agreement in a popular vote that took place on Sunday 2 October. The “yes” campaign had the backing not just of President Santos, but also of a wide array of politicians both within Colombia, and abroad, including United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. There was also a vocal campaign for a “no” vote, which was led by former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe. Polls conducted ahead of Sunday’s vote suggested a comfortable wind for the “yes” campaign, however in a surprise result, 50.2% of voters rejected the agreement compared with 49.8% who voted for it. The difference with 98.98% of the votes counted was less than 54,000 votes out of almost thirteen million ballots. Turnout however was low, with fewer than 38% of voters casting their votes.

Country Divided

The country was divided regionally, with most of the outlying provinces voting in favor of the agreement and those nearer the capital and inland voting against it. In the province of Choco, which has been one of the hardest hit by the conflict, 80% of voters backed the deal. In the town of Bojaya, where at least 119 people were killed when a church was hit by FARC mortar bombs, 96% of residents voted “yes.” The capital, Bogota, also voted “yes” with 56%. In the eastern region of the country in the province of Vaupes, 78% voted in favor of the deal however in the eastern province of Casanare, 71.1% voted against it. It is an area where farmers and landowners have for years been extorted by the FARC and other illegal groups. In Antioquia, the home state of ex-President Uribe, 62% also rejected the deal.

Most of those who voted “no” have disclosed that they thought that the peace agreement was letting the rebels “get away with murder.” Under the agreement, special courts would have been created in order to try crimes that were committed during the conflict. Those who confessed to their crimes would have been given more lenient sentences and would have avoided serving any time in conventional prisons. For many Colombians, this was one step too far. Many also balked at the government’s plan to pay demobilized FARC rebels a monthly stipend and to offer those wanting to start a business financial help. “No” voters indicated that this amounted to a reward for criminal behaviour while honest citizens were left to struggle financially. Many also stated that they simply did not trust the rebels to kept their promise to lay down arms for good, pointing to previous failed peace negotiations when the rebels took advantage of a lull in fighting to regroup and rearm as evidence that the FARC had broken their word before. Others still were unhappy that under the agreement, the FARC would be guaranteed ten seats in the Colombian Congress in the elections in 2018 and 2022. They said that this would give the newly created party an unfair advantage.

What Does the “No” Campaign Want?

The main proponent of the vote against the agreement was former President Alvaro Uribe. Following the vote, Mr Uribe insisted that he was not opposed to peace however that he wanted to renegotiate some of the agreement, which he said needed “corrections.” Amongst the “corrections” he has demanded are:

• That those found guilty of crimes be barred from running for public office
• That FARC leaders serve time in prison for crimes committed
• That the FARC use their illicit gains to pay their victims compensation
• That no changes be made to the Colombian constitution

Addressing the nation after the surprise election result, President Santos disclosed that he accepted the result, noting however that he would continue working to achieve peace. He further indicated that the bilateral ceasefire between government forces and the FARC would remain in place. He has also told government negotiators to travel to Cuba in order to consult FARC leaders on the next move. Meanwhile the FARC leader has disclosed that the rebels remain committed to securing an end to the conflict, stating, “the FARC reiterates its disposition to use only words as a weapon to build toward the future

Colombian Government and FARC Sign Historic Peace Agreement

Colombia’s centre-right government and the Marxist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebel group signed a peace agreement on 26 September to end a half-quarter war that has killed a quarter of a million people an which once took the country to the brink of collapse.

After four years of peace talks in Cuba, President Juan Manuel Santos and rebel leader Timochekno, the nom de guerre for Rodrigo Londono, warmly shook hands on Colombian soil for the first time and signed the accord. Guests at the ceremony, which took place in the Caribbean coastal city of Cartagena included United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, Cuban President Raul Castro and United States Secretary of State John Kerry. Showing its support for the peace deal, the European Union (EU) on Monday removed the FARC from its list of terrorist groups. Kerry also disclosed that Washington would review whether to take the FARC off its terrorism list, and has pledged US $390 million for Colombia next year to support the peace process. While on Sunday, 2 October, Colombians will vote on whether to ratify the agreement, opinion polls shows that it should pass with ease.

The end of Latin America’s longest-running war will effectively turn the FARC reel group into a political party fighting at the ballot box instead of the battlefield, which they have occupied since 1964. In the worst days of the war, attacks targeted the capital Bogota, which rebels threatened to over run, and battles between the guerrillas, paramilitaries, drug gangs and the army raged in the countryside, parts of which remain sown with landmines. Thousands of civilians were killed in Massacres, particularly in the rural areas of the country, as the warring sides sought to prevent people from collaborating with or supporting enemy forces. The FARC also became a big player in the cocaine trade and at its strongest, it had 20,000 fighters. Now, its some 7,000 fighters must hand over their weapons to the United Nations within 180 days.

Despite widespread relief at the end of the bloodshed and kidnappings of the past fifty-two years, the agreement has caused divisions within the country. Former President Alvaro Uribe and others have voiced anger at the accord, stating that it allows rebels to enter parliament without serving any prison time. In Cartagena on Monday, large billboards urged a “yes” vote in the referendum, while Uribe led hundreds of supporters with umbrellas in the colours of the Colombian flag urging voters to back “no.” Some Colombians are also nervous over how the rebels will integrate back into society.  Most however are optimistic that peace will bring more benefits than problems.

In recent years, Colombia has performed better economically than its neighbours and peace should reduce the government’s security spending an din n turn open new areas of the country for mining and oil companies. Challenges however will remain as criminal gangs may attempt to fill the void in rebel-held areas, while landmines hinder development and rural poverty remains a challenge. Analysts believe that President Santos will likely use his political capital to push for tax reforms and other measures in order to compensate for a drop in oil income caused by a fall in energy prices.

Columbia and FARC to Ratify Peace Accord this Month

According to Spain’s acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, Columbia’s government will ratify a peace accord with the Marxist rebel group FARC on 26 September.

On 25 August, the government of Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos reached a peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) to end the group’s 52-year-old war against the Colombian state. On 29 August, Colombia’s FARC rebel force formally ordered its fighters to observer a ceasefire, which still has to go to a plebiscite vote on 2 October. The agreement, which was reached after almost four years of talks in Cuba, will see the FARC rebels hand their weapons over to UN-sponsored monitors and reintegrate into civilian life.

More than 220,000 people have been killed in the conflict, tens of thousands have disappeared and millions have fled their homes in a bid to escape the violence.

Venezuelans Cross into Colombia Due to Food Shortages

Tens of thousands of Venezuelans have crossed to neighbouring Colombia to buy basic goods amid shortages during a brief opening of the border. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro authorized a 12 hour opening of the bridge that connects Tachira, Venezuela, and Cucuta, Colombia. According to the director of the Colombian border authority, an estimated 35.000 Venezuelans arrived in Cucuta. The border was closed in August 2015 as a part of a crime crackdown. President Nicolas Maduro ordered the border closure because the region had been infiltrated by Colombian paramilitaries and gangs.

Venezuelans who want to cross into Colombia in states where the border has been closed need a special permit to do so. But as the scarcity of food gets worse in Venezuela, many have crossed the porous border illegally. On July 6, about 500 Venezuelan women in search of food and medicine broke through border controls separating the western state of Tachira from Cucuta. After buying food and other goods which are scarce in Venezuela, they again gathered at the the border post asking the Colombian guards to let them pass. Goods such as rice, sugar, flour, and oil are hard to come by in Venezuela due to a deep economic crisis.

The ministers of defense from Colombia and Venezuela met earlier this months to discuss potentially reopening border gates on the 2.000 kilometres separating the two countries. Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos and his Foreign Minister Maria Angela Holguin also visited Cucuta last week to push for a reopening.

Demonstrators demanding food have clashed with rioting police in several Venezuelan cities in recent weeks amid demonstrations and looting that have turned deadly. Last month, Venezuelan security forces fired teargas at protesters chanting “We want food!” near the presidential palace in Caracas. National Guard and police officers blocked a road near the Miraflores palace in downtown Caracas, after scores of angry Venezuelans began trying to approach the building.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his cabinet blame the recession on an “economic war” they say is being waged against them by businessmen in league with the opposition. The Venezuelan opposition, however, says the real cause of the crisis is the state-led system defended by late leftist leader Hugo Chavez. After winning control of the legislature in January, the opposition launched its efforts to remove the president, including a bid for a recall referendum.

Increase in coca cultivation in Colombia signals changing trends in post-conflict political economy

When it comes to Colombia and the US’ bilateral relationship, coca cultivation remains a hot – and controversial –  topic. Indeed, one of the main objectives of Plan Colombia was to reduce coca cultivation, often with methods that were opposed by local communities. Washington continues to closely monitor the crops cultivated in Colombia and if there are any noticeable changes, the US tends to be pretty vocal on the topic. Therefore, it is little surprise that the recent attention gained in national and international media around the increasing number of hectares dedicated to coca cultivation was sparked by a statement made by the US Ambassador in March. However, it is necessary to analyse what the recent uptick in production tells us about the changing patterns of illicit economic activity in Colombia, particularly in the context of the move towards a post-conflict environment, following the ongoing peace process between the government and guerrilla groups (FARC and the ELN).

According to the US Embassy’s report, the figures produced by the Whitehouse’s National Office on the Control of Drugs showed that between 2013-2015 the number of hectares of coca cultivated increased by 42%. This means that despite the ongoing well-funded fight against drugs, Colombia has once again become again the number one cocaine producer in the world.

While these numbers could point to failing policies in the fight against drug cultivation, closer analysis underlines that the rise has more to do with changing patterns in the areas being cultivated. Since May 2015 the Colombian government has prohibited the use of spraying glyphosate to eradicate crops, and has instead favoured other methods – likely less effective, if less harmful – such as manual eradication. The reason behind the reforms are primarily driven by the noted effects of glyphosate on the health of those living in such areas, and the government’s changing strategy to tackle illicit cultivation in the country by encouraging investment, rather than further alienating local populations. What the figures do tell us are that the areas where cultivation has increased are likely to present some of the most pressing challenges in the coming years, because beyond coca they are breeding grounds for other illicit economic activities.

Since October 2015 the new anti-drugs policy has reformed the previous strategy on crop eradication. One of the six key points includes substitution cultivation and voluntary eradication to incentivise planting other types of crops and productive initiatives. As our analysis on the passing of the Law on zones of rural, economic and social development (Zidres) outlined, part of the post-conflict strategy is to develop agricultural and agroindustrial initiatives in the country. Many in rural areas such as North Santander region or Orinoquía -where anti-drug policies are being implemented- are, at the same time, places of interest for economic agroindustrial projects. The potential connection between these new projects and drug eradication methods is likely to be a big concern for future investors and the government.

According to the figures released by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime in 2015, during the year 2014 most of the coca cultivation areas were in the south of the country, in particular in Caquetá, Cauca, Nariño, Putumayo and Catatumbo. The report also underlines that coca cultivation remains dominant in the regions it has traditionally thrived, rather than spreading to other areas. However, these areas are now also home to other illicit economic activities – most notably, and of likely concern to international companies in the extractives sector, illegal mining. Moreover, the growing number of hectares used for coca cultivation are primarily concentrated in areas of increased activities of BACRIM (organised crime groups), guerrillas and other organised crime groups.

Coca cultivation has directly aided guerrilla groups, paramilitaries and other armed groups in financing their activities in Colombia in recent decades. The continued prevalence of coca underlines that despite the ongoing peace process taking place between the government and guerrilla groups, narco-trafficking and other illicit activities are likely to remain a key challenge in many regions.

In particular, it should be noted that:

• While the new policies tackling drug cultivation can be considered a triumph for many local communities in the south of the country, who had suffered greatly from the previous eradication methods, the increase in cultivation alongside other illicit activities will continue to directly affect the local social and environmental climate (eg illegal mining and logging). Moreover, the heavy presence of armed groups in the south, alongside the plans for reconstruction and development in these regions, points to the potential for armed conflict to continue at a localised level, even if Colombia is technically entering into a “post-conflict” state.
• The change in anti-drug policy also opens up the possibility to invest in the areas where coca is grown. Such investment is likely to pose significant challenges when assessing narco-trafficking routes in the country, the demobilisation of the FARC, the role that illegal mining now plays in areas with high levels of coca cultivation and in particular the change in dynamics between local and national institutions,  armed groups and local populations in each region. A few years ago former president Alvaro Uribe attempted to increase the presence of the state in such areas where coca was cultivated and control local populations. However, the measures saw coca cultivation move to increasingly remote rural areas where there was little state presence and armed groups moved, expanding narco-trafficking routes. This serves as an example of how trying to impose state control in rural areas, without negotiating with armed groups with a presence in the region, can have unintended implications. In particular, with the likely demobilisation of FARC, these efforts may enable the expansion of the areas of influence of other armed groups.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR

The Colombian government’s push to develop agroindustrial projects, alongside substituting coca for other productive crops, is aimed at tackling the social and local economic development issues in regions where armed groups have historically been their most prolific. However, the model could proffer explosive political and social consequences, when combining the development projects, alongside anti-drug policies, and the continued presence of demobilised guerrillas and other organised criminal groups in the same region.

Rafael Pardo, the Minister for post-conflict has outlined that substitution cultivation plans will be inherent with the peace policies that are being implemented in the country. However, the increase in coca cultivation outlines the continued threat that organised criminal activity will have for future investors in these regions, even if the country is no longer in a state of armed conflict. Importantly, it should be noted that where coca cultivation takes place, so too does arms trafficking, labs for processing the coca to cocaine, and other illicit trades that armed groups have traditionally derived their income from. In particular investors looking at agricultural and mining projects are likely to face hostility from the unregulated illegal sectors operating at a local level. The rise in illegal mining in regions of coca production also poses severe social and environmental impacts, which have negative implications in terms of trust and reputation for extractive companies potentially interested in working in these areas.

These regions have historically had a limited state presence and many local industries are often in some way associated with organised criminal or guerrilla groups operating there. Foreign companies looking to make the most of investing in Colombia’s post-conflict economic opportunities, must be sure to carry out detailed local due diligence. However, the substitution cultivation plans do offer companies the possibility to also support local farmers, and cooperatives, to increase productivity and offer rural regions access to larger economic markets. Understanding the local dynamics and supporting local communities will be key for building successful operations in Colombia ahead.