Tag Archives: Aleppo

UN: Syrian Refugee Numbers Pass 5 Million Mark in Region

Data from the United Nations refugees agency released late last month showed that the number of people fleeing Syria’s civil war to Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt has passed the 5 million mark.

According to the latest data collected by UNHCR and the government of Turkey, a total of 5,018,168 people have now taken refugee in Syria’s neighbours and in other countries in the regions. Millions more have fled to other parts of the country, including tends of thousands in March, mainly women and children, who were trying to get away from a rebel offensive northwest of the city of Hama.

Since 2011, in the wake of anti-government protests, which spiralled into a full-blown conflict between rebels, Islamist militants, government troops and foreign backers Syrians have poured across these countries borders. While an initial rush of refugees in 2013 and 2014 steadied for the following two years, the numbers have again risen this year after the military victory by the government and its Russian allies in the northern city of Aleppo. Syrians have also fled to Europe in large numbers, making 884,461 asylum claims between April 2011 and October 2016, with almost two-thirds of those claims being in Germany or Sweden. Hundreds of thousands more live in Gulf countries that are no party to the 1951 Refugee Convention, such as Saudi Arabi, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, so they are not recorded as refugees. A UN-led humanitarian appeal to help Syrian refugees and support host communities has received only 6 percent of the money that it requires this year – US $298 million out of US $4.6 billion.

UN: Syrian Refugee Numbers Pass 5 Million Mark in Region

Data from the United Nations refugees agency released late last month showed that the number of people fleeing Syria’s civil war to Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt has passed the 5 million mark.

According to the latest data collected by UNHCR and the government of Turkey, a total of 5,018,168 people have now taken refugee in Syria’s neighbours and in other countries in the regions. Millions more have fled to other parts of the country, including tends of thousands in March, mainly women and children, who were trying to get away from a rebel offensive northwest of the city of Hama.

Since 2011, in the wake of anti-government protests, which spiralled into a full-blown conflict between rebels, Islamist militants, government troops and foreign backers Syrians have poured across these countries borders. While an initial rush of refugees in 2013 and 2014 steadied for the following two years, the numbers have again risen this year after the military victory by the government and its Russian allies in the northern city of Aleppo. Syrians have also fled to Europe in large numbers, making 884,461 asylum claims between April 2011 and October 2016, with almost two-thirds of those claims being in Germany or Sweden. Hundreds of thousands more live in Gulf countries that are no party to the 1951 Refugee Convention, such as Saudi Arabi, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, so they are not recorded as refugees. A UN-led humanitarian appeal to help Syrian refugees and support host communities has received only 6 percent of the money that it requires this year – US $298 million out of US $4.6 billion.

Ceasefire Begins in Syria

A nationwide seven-day ceasefire began in Syria on Monday 12 September after a weekend of air strikes, with the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reporting that it was mostly holding across the country at the start of its second day on Tuesday.

The monitoring body has reported that some air attacks and shelling were reported in the first hours of the truce on Monday evening, adding that incidents were reported in areas including the north Hama countryside, East Ghouta and north of Aleppo. This however appeared to die down, with the Observatory reporting that it had not recorded a single civilian death from fighting in the fifteen hours since the ceasefire came into effect at 7 PM (1600 GMT) on Monday.

The deal was rached late on Friday (9 September) in Geneva, after months of talks between Russia and the United States. It is the second attempt this year to halt Syria’s five-year-old civil war. Russia is a major backer of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while the US supports some of the rebel groups that are fighting to topple him. Syrian state media has reported that President Bashar al-Assad has welcomed the deal. Under the plan, Syrian government forces will end combat missions in specified opposition-held areas. Russia and the US will then establish a joint centre to combat jihadist groups, including the so-called Islamic State (IS) group and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (known until recently as the Nusra Front). The 10-day truce is due to be followed by co-ordinated US-Russian air strikes against jihadist militants.

Ahead of the ceasefire, the Syrian government carried out heavy airstrikes in several rebel areas over the weekend, killing about 100 people. Syrian activists have reported that Russian warplanes have also been in action in the provinces of Idlib and Aleppo. On Monday, the first day of the Eid al-Adha Muslim holiday, fighting had raged on several key fronts before the ceasefire, including in Aleppo and the southern provinces of Quneitra. The Observatory has disclosed that at least 31 people were killed by airstrikes on rebel-held Idlib province and eastern Damascus, and by bombardement of villages in the northern Homs countryside and rocket attacks in the city of Aleppo on Monday, before the truce began.

While the ceasefire appears to be holding on its second day, it currently remains unclear whether rebel factions will abide by it to the end. The Free Syrian Army group has written to the United States administration stating that while it would “co-operate positively” with the ceasefire, it was concerned that it would benefit the government. Another rebel group, the influential hardline Islamist Ahrar al-Sham, has rejected the deal. In a video statement, the group’s second-in-command, Ali al-Omar, stated, “a rebellious people who have fought and suffered for six years cannot accept half-solutions.” However the group’s commander stopped short of explicitly stating that it would not abide by its terms. If the truce does prove to hold, jihadist groups like IS and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham will face directly face the power of Russian and US air forces; moderate rebels and civilians in the areas that they hold will no longer face the threat of indiscriminate air strikes, such as barrel-bombing, however the Syrian air force will not be grounded completely; aid deliveries will be allowed to areas that are currently under siege; and President Assad will be in a stronger position as the US and Russia engage two of his most effective military opponents while moderate rebels observe the truce with his forces.

The conflict in Syria, which began with an uprising against President Assad, has now been going on for five years and has claimed the lives of more than a quarter of a million people. Millions have fled abroad, many of them seeking asylum in the European Union, but nearly 18 million people remain in Syria, which ahs been carved up by fighting between government and rebel forces.

Syria’s History of Failed Agreements

• February 2012 – Syrian government “categorically rejects” an Arab League plan, which calls for a joint Arab-UN peacekeeping mission.
• June 2012/January 2014/January 2016 – Three failed UN-sponsored peace conferences in Geneva.
• September 2013 – Kerry and Lavrov negotiate a deal to strip the Syrian government of its chemical weapons in return for the US backing away from air strikes. Since then, the government has again and repeatedly been accused of using toxic chemicals against rebel-held areas.
• February 2016 – World powers agree in Munich on a nationwide “cessation of hostilities” in Syria excluding jihadist groups. There is no agreement on any joint US-Russian operations. The “pause” quickly unravels as President Assad promises to regain control of the whole country.
• March 2016 – Russian President Vladimir Putin declared “mission accomplished” in Syria and orders the removal of “main part” of Russia’s air army in Syria. Russian air strikes however have continued ever since.

IS Reportedly Using Iraqi Pilots to Train Militants to Fly

A UK-based activist group, which is monitoring the conflict in Syria and recent territorial gains by Islamic State (IS), reported Friday that Iraqi pilots who have joined IS are now training IS members in Syria to fly three captured fighter jets.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), witnesses have reported seeing planes being flown around the Al-Jarrah military airport, which is located east of the contested city of Aleppo. Rami Abdul Rahman, head of the SOHR, disclosed Friday that IS militants were using Iraqi officers, who were pilots under ex-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, to train fighters in Syria. He added, “people saw the flights, they went up many times from the airport and they are flying in the skies outside the airport and coming back.”

While it remains unknown just how many Iraqi pilots have defected and what the trainees’ previous level of familiarity with flight is, it is known that IS has three planes in its possession, which they captured earlier on the ground in Aleppo and Raqqa.

If IS is indeed using Iraqi pilots to train its fighters, such a move could have a major impact on global security, and could see the militant group attempt to hijack planes in Europe and the United States. With officials in Europe already warning that a number of EU nationals have travelled to Syria and Iraq to fight alongside IS militants, the jihadist group could be training militants with EU passports on how to hijack planes and carryout terrorist attacks similar to 9/11.

Meanwhile Iraqi forces have launched an attack on IS militants stationed near Tikrit. The Iraqi government reported Friday that its troops have gained ground to the northern and western regions of Tikrit, effectively cutting an important IS supply route. The city is amongst those areas that were seized by IS in Syria and Iraq earlier this year.

Kurdish forces, backed by US-led air strikes, are continuing to fight the militants in the northern Syrian town of Kobane. On Friday, US-led warplanes targeted jihadists attacking Kobane as Pentagon officials disclosed that despite a recent wave of deadly bombings in Baghdad, there was no imminent threat to the capital city.

Pentagon officials announced Friday that despite recent advances made by the militant group to the west of Baghdad, IS was not poised for an assault on the capital city. The battle for the town of Kobane has been seen as a major test for the US-led coalition’s air campaign and whether it will be able to successfully push back the militant group.

ISIS Declares Caliphate across Iraq and Syria

On 30 June, the militant group Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS, a.k.a ISIL) declared a caliphate which spans from Aleppo in northwestern Syria to Diyala province in eastern Iraq. The group has also modified its name to “Islamic State” and has declared their leader, Abu Bakar al Baghdadi as its caliph. Baghdadi is now referred to as “khalīfah Ibrahim.”

Islamic State released a ten page announcement in Arabic, English, German, French, and Russian which defends the formation of a caliphate. The announcement declares that “the Islamic State has no [legal] constraint or excuse that can justify delaying or neglecting the establishment of the khilāfah (caliphate) such that it would not be sinful.” The statement explains that Baghdadi was chosen as caliph because he claims that he is a descendant of the prophet Muhammed (pbuh). Islamic State adds, “Thus, he is the imam and khalīfah for the Muslims everywhere” and have called on Muslims around the globe to pledge allegiance to him. Muslims around the world have expressed outrage as the declaration occurs during the beginning of the holy month of Ramadan.

ISIS also released two videos upon the announcement. Of note, the second video, “The End of Sykes-Picot,” shows a Chilean member of the Islamic State discussing the destruction of the border between Iraq and Syria. He speaks in English, and raises the flag of the Islamic State over the outpost.

SUSTAINABILITY:
Islamic State gained traction in June by taking control of large regions in northern Iraq and creating corridors into ISIS controlled parts of Syria. They were spurred on by the support of Sunni tribes in Iraq who were angry at their marginalization by the government, led by highly sectarian Shi’a leader, Nouri al Maliki. ISIS captured equipment and money in their blitzkrieg across the region, and even if the Iraqi government recaptures territory, it will be difficult to dislodge the spoils ISIS has gained, including its new fundraising networks and reputation, which now surpasses Al Qaeda in infamy. In fact, some analysts believe that AQ will experience a growing number of defections as militants move their allegiance to ISIS. Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP), for example, has made supportive and congratulatory statements on social media. ISIS has also recently released a new map showing a five-year-plan to grow their caliphate. The map shows plans to expand across north and central Africa to the west, and beyond India and Indonesia in the East.

Despite the group’s arrogance and ambition, analysts do not believe that the Islamic state is likely to remain in place. The erstwhile coalitions that ISIS had with Sunni Muslims in Iraq has eroded as the militants have killed members of the tribes or made tribal leaders into subordinates rather than partners. The Islamic State is also battling Iraqi soldiers who are intent on regaining captured territory, with heavy fighting occurring in Tikrit over the weekend. Russia has deployed military jets and experts to Iraq, and on Sunday evening, US President Barack Obama ordered additional deployments to Iraq, bringing the number of US troops in the region to 750, as well as sending “a detachment of helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles, which will bolster airfield and travel route security,” according to a statement. Iran has also agreed to send weaponry but will not send troops.

FAILED POLITICAL EFFORTS:

In an urgent effort to deal with the political marginalization that was the catalyst for the rapid growth of ISIS, Iraq’s new parliament convened on Tuesday morning, intent on creating a unity government to keep the country from splitting apart. However the first session ended early after 90 Sunni and Kurdish MPs walked out in protest during a 30-minute morning break. The speaker of the parliament declared, “We are going to postpone because of an urgent matter,” but he did reveal what the urgent matter was.

Iraqi president al-Maliki and his Shi’a-dominated government have been under pressure to be more inclusive of Iraq’s Sunni minority. US diplomats have stated that the US is unlikely to take military action against the Islamic State until a new unity government is created.

Meanwhile, fighting continues at an alarming rate. Violence in Iraq resulted in 2,417 deaths in June, according to the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq. In May, the number reached 799. Islamic State also appears to be targeting Shi’a shrines. On Monday, the group fired mortars at the Askari Shrine in Samarra as worshipers gathered to celebrate the first day of Ramadan. Six people were killed and minor damage was caused to the dome. Iraqi forces have been reinforced in the region to protect the site. The attack is likely to cause waves of retaliation, creating the sectarian war that ISIS had openly sought to create.