MS Risk Blog

Ebola Situation Report (9 September 2015)

During the week leading up to 6 September 2015, there were a total of two confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) that were reported:  1 in Guinea and 1 in Sierra Leone.  Both cases that were reported during this period were registered contacts associated with previous cases in the same areas of Conakry, Guinea, and Kambia, Sierra Leone, in the past two weeks.  According to officials, the overall case incidence has remained stable, with 2 – 3 confirmed cases being reported per week for six consecutive weeks.  Currently, there are a total of three active chains of transmission:  two in and around the capital Conakry, Guinea; and one in the western district of Kambia, Sierra Leone.  All remaining contacts associated with transmission chains in Forecariah, Guinea completed follow-up in the week leading up to 6 September.  Additionally, during this recording period, Liberia was declare free of Ebola virus transmission for a second time on 3 September, 42 days after the country’s last laboratory-confirmed case, which was associated with the Margibi cluster of cases.  Liberia has now entered a 90-day period of heightened surveillance.  The total number of contacts currently under observation in Guinea and Sierra Leone has increased from approximately 450 on 30 August to approximately 1300 on 6 September.  Officials have indicated that this increase is largely attributed to the single high-risk community death that was reported in Kambia, Sierra Leone, at the end of the previous reporting week (week leading up to 30 August.)

There have been a total of 28,141 reported confirmed, probable and suspected cases of EVD in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, with 11,291 reported deaths.

Guinea

 The single confirmed case that was reported in Guinea in the week leading up to 6 September had onset of symptoms in the Ratoma area of the capital, Conakry.  The case is a 13-year-old girl, who is a registered contact and relative of 2 cases that were reported from the same area of the city during the previous two weeks.  There are currently 292 contacts who are under follow-up in 2 adjacent prefectures:  Conakry (266 contacts) and Dubreka (26 contacts).

Sierra Leone

In the week leading up to 6 September, there was one new confirmed case that was reported in Sierra Leone.  The case is the daughter of the high-risk case that was reported from Kambia the pervious week.  While over 900 contacts have been identified in association with the chain of transmission, the majority of these contacts have been defined by geographical proximity rather than by history of possible exposure and are therefore considered to be at a very low risk.  Authorities however have warned that further cases are expected amongst the approximately 40-high risk contacts that have been identified so far.  The origin of infection of the 67-year-old woman remains under investigation.

France Begins Syria Surveillance Flights Ahead of Possible Airstrikes

Last week, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius announced that France had carried out its first surveillance flights over Syria in order to prepare for possible airstrikes on Islamic State (IS) group extremists.

Speaking to reporters, Fabius stated that “these surveillance flights will determine what action can be taken when the time comes.”  A French military source, the reconnaissance flights were carried out by two of France’s Rafale fighter jets, which are equipped with photo and video cameras.  The source disclosed that the “two Rafales left the Persian Gulf this morning (Tuesday 9 September) and have just returned.”

The surveillance flights follow President Francois Hollande’s announcement last Monday that France would soon begin surveillance flights over Syria.  During a press conference, he stated that the intelligence gathered from these flights would then be used in order to determine if France would go ahead with airstrikes against IS group targets in the Middle Eastern country.  The French President noted that he wanted to find out “what is being prepared against us and what is being done against the Syrian population.”

This move represents a major shift within France’s strategy in Syria as while the country is part of a coalition of nations that have been carrying out airstrikes against the extremist group in neighbouring Iraq, Paris has so far not commented on extending its bombing mission to Syria.

While President Hollande noted that the fight against terrorism needs to be carried out both at home and in places where it is entrenched, he ruled out deploying ground forces to Syria, stating that such a move would be “ineffective and unrealistic.”

Pyongyang Nuclear Reactor Deteriorates North and South Korean Relations

Relations between North and South Korea have been strained even further by Pyongyang’s
announcement that its Yongbyon nuclear reactor is once more fully operational.

“All the nuclear facilities in Yongbyon [Nuclear Scientific Research Centre], including the uranium enrichment plant and five megawatt reactor were rearranged, changed or readjusted and they  started normal operation,” the director of the Atomic Energy Institute (AEI) told the North’s Korean Central News Agency on Tuesday.

The Yongbyon reactor, widely regarded as the country’s principal source of weapons-grade
plutonium and capable of producing up to 6 kilograms of the radioactive element per year, was supposedly shut down in 2007 under a six-nation aid-for-disarmament accord. However, satellite imagery analysis conducted after Pyongyang’s last nuclear test in 2013 showed that work on the site was being continued, despite the embargo.

The AEI director said scientists have been working on improving both the “quality and quantity” of  North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, which would be used without hesitation against the United States and other western aggressors. “If the US and other hostile forces persistently seek their reckless hostile policy … [North Korea] is fully ready to cope with them with nuclear weapons any time,” he said.

This announcement came after Pyongyang hinted on Monday that it might be preparing to launch satellites mounted on long-range rockets to commemorate the regime’s 70th anniversary on October 10. Widely viewed as a test of its long-range missile technology, the prospective launches have sparked criticism from the South. “Any launch of a ballistic missile by North Korea is a serious act of provocation,” South Korean Defence Ministry spokesman Kim Min-Seok said at a press briefing. “It is a military threat and a clear violation of the UN resolutions banning (North Korea) from any activities using ballistic missile technology.”

In response, North Korea’s National Aerospace Development Administration director defended his country’s sovereign right to pursue space development for peaceful purposes. North Korea spent decades attempting to reach space with a multi-stage rocket until it finally succeeded in launching its first native satellite in 2012.

UN Announces 850,000 Migrants to Cross Sea to Europe in 2015 – 2016

On 9 September, the United Nations announced that at least 850,000 people are expected to cross the Mediterranean, seeking refuge in Europe this year and next.  In its announcement, the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, called for more cohesive asylum policies in order to deal with the growing numbers.

In a newly released document, the refugee agency reported that “in 2015, UNHCR anticipates that approximately 400,000 new arrivals will seek international protection in Europe via the Mediterranean.  In 2016, this number could reach 450,000 or more.”  It noted that many of the refugees are Syrians, who have been driven to make the dangerous voyage by intensified fighting there, coupled with worsening conditions for refugees in surrounding countries, which has been due to funding shortfalls in aid programmes.  UNHCR spokesman William Spindler has noted that the prediction for this year is already close to being fulfilled as 366,000 have already made the voyage.  He disclosed that the total will depend on whether migrants stop attempting the journey as the weather becomes colder and the seas more dangerous.  Currently however the numbers do not appear to have slowed down, and are not likely to given Germany’s announcement that it will ease the rules for Syrians seeking refuge who first reach the European Union (EU) through other countries.  The UNHCR has reported that a single-day record 7,000 Syrian refugees arrived in the former Yugoslav republic of Macedonia on 7 September, while 30,000 are on Greek Islands, most of them on Lesbos.

Germany has told its European partners that they must take in more refugees as it handles record numbers of asylum seekers.  Other countries, including the US and wealthy Gulf States must also take on their responsibilities.  Last week, the White House announced that it was considering steps to ease the crisis.

Malcolm Turnbull replaces ousted Tony Abbott as Australian PM

After emerging victorious from last night’s leadership spill, Malcolm Turnbull has been sworn in as Australia’s 29th Prime Minister, barely two years after his predecessor Tony Abbott led the Liberal Party to victory in September 2013.

Despite increasingly ominous rumblings from the back bench and overt expressions of discontent from his cabinet, the former prime minister had dismissed as gossip the possibility that a second challenge to his leadership would emerge so soon after the abortive February coup. However, Monday morning saw gossip merge into uncomfortable reality as Federal Minister for Communications Malcolm Turnbull handed in his resignation and demanded that Abbott call a leadership ballot.

Moments after walking away from his ministerial portfolio, Turnbull issued an excoriating critique of the Abbott government, focusing primarily on its inability to provide sound economic leadership and its continued poor performance in the polls. It had been, he said, a difficult decision to make, but one which was vital if the Labor Party was to be prevented from winning the next federal election. “We need advocacy, not slogans.” He said, alluding to Abbott’s highly divisive rhetorical style. “And we need a different style of leadership. We need a style of leadership that…explains the challenges and how to seize the opportunities, a style of leadership that respects the people’s intelligence.”

While insiders claim that Abbott was taken aback by Turnbull’s decision, the embattled leader was nevertheless quick to respond. “We are not the Labor Party.” He said, invoking the spectre of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd leadership crisis that had all-but crippled the last Labor government. “This country needs strong and stable government and that means avoiding at all costs Labor’s revolving-door prime ministership.”

Despite these grim prognostications, Abbott was unable to rally enough support from within the party to secure his position as its leader, loosing the leadership spill to Malcolm Turnbull last night by a ten point margin.

Shortly after noon today, Abbott – who had not yet spoken publicly about his defeat – addressed the nation for the last time as its Prime Minister. Angry and defiant, his concession speech paid no tribute – however grudging – to his successor and ignored the role he himself had played in losing the confidence of his party and much of the electorate. Instead, he focused on his achievements – the free trade agreements, the refugee policy – and on those who had weakened his administration, particularly the media whose “poll driven panic” and “sour, bitter character assassinations” had made his position untenable.

As the new Turnbull administration readies itself for the upcoming election, the question remains: what will Abbott do next? Will he take up his position on the backbench and see out the rest of his term in quiet contemplation of his lot? Or will he, like Kevin Rudd, use his best endeavours to undermine the party and the individuals responsible for his downfall? In the context of what Abbott undoubtedly sees as a personal betrayal, of what value are his assurances that there will be no white-anting of the Turnbull government? Another possibility is that he may leave public office altogether, causing a by-election in Warringah, the electorate he has served as a Federal Member of Parliament since 1994. Whatever he decides to do, the reality which Turnbull now has to face is a party riven by disunity and factionalism, a situation which is unlikely to improve with next week’s
cabinet reshuffle.