MS Risk Blog

Peace commitment signed between FARC and Colombian government

Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos has signed a breakthrough peace commitment with the leaders of the country’s largest rebel group, FARC, and in so doing has laid the groundwork for a possible end to Latin America’s longest running armed conflict.

“We are adversaries, but today we advance in the same direction, the most noble direction of any society, which is peace,” said Mr. Santos, speaking from the Cuban capital, Havana, where negotiations between the government and the rebels have been taking place since November 2012.

In a joint statement issued on Wednesday, Santos and high ranking members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia said that they had overcome the last major obstacle to rapprochement by agreeing on a strategy for compensating victims and punishing those who had engaged in human rights abuses. The terms of this agreement stipulate that fighters who confess their crimes and promise never to take up arms against the state again will face up to eight years of restrictions to their liberty. Meanwhile, negotiators are still working on establishing a mechanism for allowing fighters to surrender their weapons and demobilise. If all goes well, a definitive peace deal is
expected to be signed in six months. However, Santos has also promised the Colombian people that they will be given an opportunity to voice their opinions in a national referendum and that any future deals with the rebel group must also pass through Congress.

Over the past three years, negotiations between the two sides have been marked by advances and setbacks. Before yesterday’s signing ceremony, both sides had already agreed to plans on political participation for former FARC guerrillas, on land reform and measures to combat drug trafficking. In a further gesture of goodwill, earlier in the year FARC also declared a unilateral ceasefire and agreed to help the Colombian government remove thousands of land mines planted by the rebel group. Yet in spite of all the progress being made, negotiators have so far been unable to resolve an issue which still has the potential to undermine any hope of lasting peace in the war-torn South American nation: how to adequately punish rebel fighters and commanders for atrocities committed since the first shots in the conflict were fired? Resolving this problem to the satisfaction of both
parties is likely to be foremost in the minds of negotiators as the countdown to the peace deal begins.

Interim President Back in Power in Burkina Faso

A week after a military takeover, Burkina Faso’s interim President Michel Kafando announced on Wednesday that he is back in charge and that civilian rule has been restored. His announcement however came as coup leader General Gilbert Diendere went to welcome a number of African leaders arriving to oversee the transfer of power. Overnight, his presidential guard agreed to a deal with the regular army in a bid to avoid further violence. They also pledged to return to their barracks and the army to withdraw from the capital Ouagadougou.

Speaking to reporters at the foreign ministry, Kafando confirmed that he has “…returned to work.” However at around the same time, around 5 km (3 miles) away, coup leader General Gilbert Diendere appeared at the aiport, where he was backed by a continent of his presidential guard, to welcome regional leaders arriving to try to negotiate an end to the crisis. Sources have reported that   Interim President Michel Kafando and Prime Minister Yacouba Isaac Zida will mark their return to power in an official handover ceremony in Ouagadougou later on Wednesday, adding that until then, Diendere will remain in power. The two leaders were arrested by members of the presidential guard a week ago.

In recent days, the country’s army deployed troops into the capital in a bid to press Diendere and his soldiers to cede power. The military threatened to disarm them by force if they failed to step down. While troops loyal to the government, who had arrived in the capital from bases across the country, were not visible on the streets of Ouagadougou, presidential guard soldiers maintained their positions at the national television headquarters despite an agreement signed over night between the two sides, under which they were to be confined to barracks in order to avoid clashes.

Unidentified gunmen kidnapped four in Philippines

Unidentified gunmen have kidnapped three foreign nationals and a Filipina from a resort on the Island Garden City of Samal in the restive southern Philippines.

Authorities have provisionally identified the kidnap victims as Robert Hall and John Ridsel, both Canadian citizens, Kjartan Sekkingstad, a Norwegian resort manager and an as yet unidentified Filipino woman. The four were abducted at around 11.41 pm last night during a raid on the Holiday Oceanview Resort near Davao city, the largest city on Mindanao island. Two more holidaymakers, Steven and Kazuka Tripp, narrowly avoided capture after successfully fighting off the gunmen who attempted to board their yacht. While no group or individual has come forward to claimresponsibility for the incident, one of the resort’s employees is reported to have discovered a note at the entrance of the hotel which reads: “Justice for our commander: NPA.” NPA stands for New People’s Army, an insurgent group connected to the Communist Party of the Philippines. However, the region’s mayor has questioned the note’s authenticity, saying that the NPA “have no means of pulling off such kidnapping”.

Sources say that the kidnappers spoke English and Tagalog and that their choice of targets- yachts belonging to the hotel’s guests – suggests that from the outset their intended victims were foreign nationals. After a botched intervention by two Japanese tourists, the gunmen took their captives and fled aboard two motorised outriggers. Filipino naval vessels, backed by two helicopter gunships, formed a blockade around Samal to prevent the kidnappers from reaching Basilan Island, but even after giving chase were unable to prevent their escape. Ground units in southeastern Mindanao were also alerted to the incident and have been patrolling possible landing  sites ever since. However, at the moment of publication, the kidnappers remain at large and the hostages have not yet been rescued.

Officials from the Philippine National Police Anti-Kidnapping Group say that kidnappings in Mindanao tend to be perpetrated by individuals or groups who are members of or allied to known terrorist organisations such as Abu Sayyaf and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). These groups see kidnapping as a way of funding their operations, which is why foreigners are often targeted. By contrast, in Manila and other areas north of Mindanao, kidnappings tend to be criminal rather than ideological in nature.

Ebola Situation Report (9 September 2015)

During the week leading up to 6 September 2015, there were a total of two confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) that were reported:  1 in Guinea and 1 in Sierra Leone.  Both cases that were reported during this period were registered contacts associated with previous cases in the same areas of Conakry, Guinea, and Kambia, Sierra Leone, in the past two weeks.  According to officials, the overall case incidence has remained stable, with 2 – 3 confirmed cases being reported per week for six consecutive weeks.  Currently, there are a total of three active chains of transmission:  two in and around the capital Conakry, Guinea; and one in the western district of Kambia, Sierra Leone.  All remaining contacts associated with transmission chains in Forecariah, Guinea completed follow-up in the week leading up to 6 September.  Additionally, during this recording period, Liberia was declare free of Ebola virus transmission for a second time on 3 September, 42 days after the country’s last laboratory-confirmed case, which was associated with the Margibi cluster of cases.  Liberia has now entered a 90-day period of heightened surveillance.  The total number of contacts currently under observation in Guinea and Sierra Leone has increased from approximately 450 on 30 August to approximately 1300 on 6 September.  Officials have indicated that this increase is largely attributed to the single high-risk community death that was reported in Kambia, Sierra Leone, at the end of the previous reporting week (week leading up to 30 August.)

There have been a total of 28,141 reported confirmed, probable and suspected cases of EVD in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, with 11,291 reported deaths.

Guinea

 The single confirmed case that was reported in Guinea in the week leading up to 6 September had onset of symptoms in the Ratoma area of the capital, Conakry.  The case is a 13-year-old girl, who is a registered contact and relative of 2 cases that were reported from the same area of the city during the previous two weeks.  There are currently 292 contacts who are under follow-up in 2 adjacent prefectures:  Conakry (266 contacts) and Dubreka (26 contacts).

Sierra Leone

In the week leading up to 6 September, there was one new confirmed case that was reported in Sierra Leone.  The case is the daughter of the high-risk case that was reported from Kambia the pervious week.  While over 900 contacts have been identified in association with the chain of transmission, the majority of these contacts have been defined by geographical proximity rather than by history of possible exposure and are therefore considered to be at a very low risk.  Authorities however have warned that further cases are expected amongst the approximately 40-high risk contacts that have been identified so far.  The origin of infection of the 67-year-old woman remains under investigation.

France Begins Syria Surveillance Flights Ahead of Possible Airstrikes

Last week, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius announced that France had carried out its first surveillance flights over Syria in order to prepare for possible airstrikes on Islamic State (IS) group extremists.

Speaking to reporters, Fabius stated that “these surveillance flights will determine what action can be taken when the time comes.”  A French military source, the reconnaissance flights were carried out by two of France’s Rafale fighter jets, which are equipped with photo and video cameras.  The source disclosed that the “two Rafales left the Persian Gulf this morning (Tuesday 9 September) and have just returned.”

The surveillance flights follow President Francois Hollande’s announcement last Monday that France would soon begin surveillance flights over Syria.  During a press conference, he stated that the intelligence gathered from these flights would then be used in order to determine if France would go ahead with airstrikes against IS group targets in the Middle Eastern country.  The French President noted that he wanted to find out “what is being prepared against us and what is being done against the Syrian population.”

This move represents a major shift within France’s strategy in Syria as while the country is part of a coalition of nations that have been carrying out airstrikes against the extremist group in neighbouring Iraq, Paris has so far not commented on extending its bombing mission to Syria.

While President Hollande noted that the fight against terrorism needs to be carried out both at home and in places where it is entrenched, he ruled out deploying ground forces to Syria, stating that such a move would be “ineffective and unrealistic.”