MS Risk Blog

The Balkan Migrant Crisis Has Worsened

There has long been a fear that Greece will become the victim of a bottleneck through the Balkans. This often discussed fear has finally become a reality. On March 8, three Balkan nations joined with a growing number of countries imposing increasingly restrictive immigration policies. Slovenia, Serbia and Croatia announced they would only allow people to cross their borders if they already possessed valid visas. This would effectively stop the thousands of migrants in Greece from moving north in an attempt to reach asylum in Germany. Also on March 9, Macedonia announced it would no longer allow migrants to freely enter the country. One report estimated that 13,000-15,000 migrants were currently living in makeshift camps near Greece’s border with Macedonia. Though exact estimates differ, numerous media organizations reported on March 9 that over 35,000 migrants from Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan are currently inside Greece. The number is expected to rise as more migrants land on mainland Greece and islands near the border with Turkey.

This last development puts even greater pressure on Greece. However, it also poses new challenges for other countries in the region. Hungary had seen a drop in migrants attempting to enter the country after it built a border fence and increased penalties for entering illegally. According to the Washington Post, over 2500 people were arrested for attempting to enter Hungary in February (far higher than previous months). Bulgaria and Albania have both increased monitoring are their borders with Greece. The Italian Government is particularly concerned migrants about migrants reaching the Albanian cost and then crossing the Adriatic Sea to Italy. As a result, the two countries announced they would conduct joint military patrols in the Adriatic Sea.

The European Union’s latest attempt to handle the crisis has come under considerable public criticism and legal scrutiny. On March 8, EU and Turkish leaders announced a new plan to return discourage further migrants from attempting the dangerous trip to Greece. The plan indicated that all undocumented migrants arriving in Greece would returned to Turkey. In exchange, the Turkish Government had requested that the EU resettle one Syrian migrant for each returned to Turkey (the so-called ‘one for one’ policy). As part of the plan, the EU also pledged to more quickly implement visa-free travel for Turks and faster approval of a €3 billion Euro aid package. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees has criticised the agreement as a violation of the EU’s international obligations and the European Convention on Human Rights. Even if the plan is not stopped by a legal challenge, it is unclear when it would be fully implemented.

Niger Opposition Announces Withdrawal from Second Round of Voting in Presidential Election

On Tuesday 8 March, Niger’s opposition coalition disclosed that its jailed candidate Hama Amadou will boycott the run-off race against incumbent President Mahamadou Issoufou.

In a dramatic announcement on Tuesday, the opposition’s Seini Oumarou disclosed that “the political opposition untied by COPA 2016 has decided to withdraw from the electoral process under way (and) demand that its representatives withdraw from (national electoral commission) CENI.” Oumarou further complained of “unfair treatment between the two candidates.” He also stated that “there has been no official announcement by the Constitutional Court of the final results of the first round,” adding that the duration of the second-round campaign has been cut from 21 to 10 days in violation of the constitution. The announcement comes as the government has insisted that it will press ahead with the ballot, which is expected to hand the incumbent a second term in office.

During the first round of voting on 21 February, Issoufou, 64, won 48.43 percent of the vote, while his nearest challenger, Amadou, who has been in prison since November 2015 on shadowy baby-trafficking charges that he maintains were concocted, took 17.73 percent. Amadou was forced to campaign from behind bars during the first round and the Court of Cassation must rule on whether to go ahead with his trial, which is due to occur on 23 March, three days after the run-off ballot in the country. The opposition coalition COPA 2016 has accused the government of fraud in the first round, and the official final results of the election have not been announced. A cabinet statement, which was read on state television late on Monday, indicated that the Constitutional Court was holding back the definitive first-round results. The government maintains that the election was “free and transparent,” while the African Union (AU), which sent observers, disclosed that it was generally satisfied with the organization of the vote, despite logistical glitches and delays. While there has so far been no comment from the electoral commission, the government has insisted that the second round would go ahead despite the opposition’s withdrawal. The second-round of voting is due to take place on 20 March.

Italians Kidnapped In Libya Arrive Back In Italy as Reports Surface Over Possible Operation to Rescue Them

On 6 March, two Italians kidnapped last July in Libya returned to Italy amidst growing questions over why two others snatched with them were killed.

Gino Pollicardo, 55, and Filippo Calcagno, 65, were met by relieved relatives at Rome’s Ciampino aiport in the early hours and were whisked away in order to be debriefed by Italy’s foreign ministry and intelligence services. They were amongst four employees of Italian construction company Bonatti who were kidnapped in the Mellitah region west of Tripoli in July.

On Thursday, 3 March, the Italian Foreign Ministry reported that two Italian civilians held hostage might have died in a gun battle that occurred in the western Libyan city of Sabratha. On Wednesday, 2 march, Libyan security forces disclosed that they had killed seven suspected Islamic State (IS) fighters in raid on a military hideout in Sabratha. They later released photographs of two Western men who also apparently died during the attack. In a statement, the Italian Foreign Ministry disclosed that the men might be two of the four employees of Italian construction company Bonatti who were kidnapped in the north African country last July. It named the possible victims as Fasuto Piano, 60, and Salvatore Failla, 47, adding that further checks were being carried out.

On Friday, 4 March, the remaining two Italian civilians were freed, just 48 hours after two fellow captives were allegedly executed by IS militants. The families of Pollicardo and Calcagno confirmed that the pair had been released, with a spokesman for security forces in Sabratha disclosing that the two men were released during a raid early on Friday, adding, “(they) were found alive during a raid by the local fighters against one of the hideouts of Islamic State in Sabratha.

Since their release however Italian media reports have since suggested that all four had been close to being freed, before plans went awry. Italian media reports have indicated that Piano and Failla, who had been separated from Pollicardo and Calcagno, had been in an IS convoy that was attacked by militiamen from Fajr Libya (Libya Dawn), which is the armed wing of the non-recognized government based in Tripoli.

While the murders have increased pressure in Italy for the country to deploy Special forces to Libya, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has cautioned that any intervention would first need parliament’s approval and that Rome would not be rushed. That sentiment was echoed on 6 Mach by Italy’s Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni, who stated in an interview with Il Sole 24 Ore daily that “we need to avoid Libya sinking into chaos where tragic episodes like this one involving our hostages can proliferate.” He noted however that “it must be clear that there are no apparent shortcuts, muscular displays. Its true, time is short, but thee is no quick war at our door,” adding, “the government is aware of the errors of the past and is working to create the conditions for stability in Libya.”

Benin Presidential Election Heads to Run-off

On Tuesday, 8 March, Benin’s national electoral commission indicated that the West African country’s Prime Minister Lionel Zinsou gained 28.4 percent of votes in the presidential election, which was held on Sunday.

The Prime Minister will face a run-off against prominent businessman Patrice Talon. Both Zinsou and Talon will now have to compete for the support of the candidates who came in third and below. The provisional results, released by the electoral commission, must be confirmed by the constitutional court and a challenge by one of the candidates appeared possible, not least because Sebastien Ajavon won 23.03 percent of the votes to finish just behind Talon. While a date for the run-off has not been announced, it may take place on 20 March.

Sunday’s election, which was contested by thirty-three candidates, is to choose a successor to President Thomas Boni Yayi, who is stepping down from power after two terms as mandated by the country’s constitution.

Benin Heads to the Polls to Elect New President in Stark Contrast to Other African Countries

On Sunday, 6 March Benin went to the polls to choose a new president from a record field of 33 candidates, but with concerns about the distribution of voters’ cards, which had already forced a two-week delay.

Polling began at 0600 GMT in Benin, with international observers assessing the atmosphere as “very calm and very relaxed.” Voting was due to end nine hours later. According to Mathieu Boni, an official from a civil society group that has deployed more than 3,000 election observers, “more than half” of the nearly 8,000 polling stations opened on time. The first results are expected to be released within 72 hours of the vote.

President Thomas Boni Yayi is due to step down after serving a maximum two five-year terms, effectively marking him out amongst some African leaders who have tried to change constitutions in order to ensure third terms in office.  While Benin has not seen the levels of political tension that have plagued other recent votes across the country, including in Burundi and Rwanda, where leaders have tested constitutional limits in a bid to stand for a third term, there are concerns that frustrations could rise because of delays in distributing voting cards that have already held up the vote by one week. According to Fidele Marcos, who heads Amnesty International’s Benin branch, “the problem is that many of the old cards had problems that weren’t addressed.” As of Friday, voter identification cards has not been distributed in two of Benin’s twelve administrative districts, where nearly 700,000 voters live.

Campaigning has centered largely on the unemployment, education and economic growth, which has slackened as plummeting oil prices hit Benin’s much larger neighbor and main trading partner, Nigeria. Leading the field is Prime Minister Lionel Zinsou, a former economist and investment banker who has received public backing from both the president and the main opposition Democratic Renewal party (PRD). He however faces strong opposition inside the ruling Cowry Forces for an Emerging Benin (FCBE) party and from trade unions who say that, having spent much of his life away from Benin’s politics in France, he is an outsider and a poor choice to lead. Other top candidates include ex-prime minister Pascal Irenee Koupaki, Abdoulaye Bio Tchane, a former senior official at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and prominent businessmen Sebastien Ajavon and Patrice Talon. Tchane has promised to create 500,00 jobs every year of the five-year term, while Ajavon states that he will reduce youth unemployment through the creation of business incubators. Both Zinsou and Talon have pledged to reform Benin’s education system. If no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round of polling on Sunday, then the top two finishers will progress on a run-off vote within fifteen days.