MS Risk Blog

Polls Indicate that Left-Wing Voter Support has Increased for Former French PM Manuel Valls

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A poll indicated on 7 December that left-leaning voter support for former French Prime Minister Manuel Valls has increased ever since he announced earlier this month that he was seeking the Socialist nomination for the presidential election next spring. Valls made the announcement after current French President Francois Hollande indicated that he would not stand for a second term in office. He is France’s most unpopular president to date.

On 6 December, Valls resigned as head of President Hollande’s government to run in their party’s primary election in late January.  An Elabe poll for BFM TV found that one out of two leftist voters would vote for Valls in the first round of the presidential election. This is up by 14 percentage points from a month ago. It has also given Valls a solid lead over other high-profile leftist politicians to win the Socialist primary. When including voters from across the political spectrum, the Elabe poll found that former economy minister Emmanuel Macron, who is running as an independent, to be the most popular amongst left-wing candidates. Some 33 percent of those polled indicated that they would probably vote for Macron and 27 percent would vote for Valls.

However regardless who wins the party’s ticket, most opinion polls have indicated that a Socialist candidate will fail to pass the first round of voting, which will take place next April, with an expected runoff in May. Most polls say that conservative former prime minister Francois Fillon and far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen will come out on top of the first round of voting, with Fillon seen winning the runoff with about two-thirds of the vote.