Pakistan Moves to End Policy on ‘Good Taliban’

After several months of moving away from supporting some jihadist groups, Pakistan may be making more substantial changes in the aftermath of the Peshawar school massacre. Pakistan’s security agencies have long used militant groups against India and Afghanistan. After the recent school massacre however, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif declared that the Pakistani government would no longer make a distinction between “good” militant groups, or those that help Islamabad achieve its foreign policy goals, and groups that do not. He added that militants “would be dealt equally with an iron hand.” Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan said last Sunday that Pakistan was at war with militants, and asked citizens to help authorities in a countrywide crackdown. Authorities subsequently made several arrests in connection to the school attack. Sharif also lifted a seven-year-old moratorium on the death penalty for terrorist cases, which resulted in the prompt execution of six prisoners. Pakistan’s military controls security policy independent of the civilian government, so it is currently unclear how closely it will follow a zero-tolerance approach to jihadists.  The knee-jerk reaction and quick executions of condemned prisoners who were unrelated to the Peshawar attack will be seen as ill-conceived by some quarters and will fuel further plots for “spectaculars” in future.  The domestic policy debate in coming months will reveal whether the current outcry and related security forces and judicial activity is the start of a new era in anti-terror operations and internal security policy or simple state vendetta in response to public outrage to the targeting of so many innocent children.

AQ, ISIS Compete for South Asian Primacy

On 5 September, al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri released a video announcing the formation of a new South Asian branch of AQ, “Qaedat al-Jihad in the Indian Subcontinent.” Zawahiri stated the group will “raise the flag of jihad” across the Indian subcontinent, as well as Myanmar and Bangladesh, and called upon Muslims “to wage jihad against its enemies, to liberate its land, to restore its sovereignty and to revive its caliphate.” Zawahiri states that a south Asian wing would benefit Muslims in Myanmar, Bangladesh and in the Indian states of Assam, Gujarat, Jammu and Kashmir, who would be freed from “injustice and oppression.”

In his message, also Zawahiri also announced that Pakistani militant Asim Umar would be the emir of al Qaeda’s South Asian wing, entrusted with reviving the network in the area spanning from Afghanistan to Myanmar. Little is known of Umar: he is believed to be in his mid-forties and is perceived as an ideologist and intellectual rather than a fighter. He is thought have had a crucial role in creating radicalized seminaries and madrassas, and he is known to have strong connections with Islamic seminaries in Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan. It is believed that Umar organised Osama bin Laden’s move to a safe house in Abbottabad, where the 9/11 mastermind he lived for years prior to his capture by U.S. forces.

Zawahiri’s announcement signifies an attempt for AQ resurgence in south Asia, where the group was considerably weakened over a series of targeted attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan by the US and allied forces. While the core group was diminished, affiliates have gained momentum in the Middle East and Africa. The group took advantage of power vacuums created during the 2011 Arab uprisings that swept the Middle East and North Africa to spread their ideologies. Thus, while AQ central has become weaker, the group’s affiliates have gained strength in several places including Mali, Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Iraq. In Africa, AQ has affiliates have gained in Somalia through al-Shabaab, which has spread chaos into Uganda and Kenya, and in Nigeria through Boko Haram, which has affected north-eastern Nigeria, Cameroon and Niger. These affiliates are now considerably stronger than the core AQ group. The announcement of a new AQ wing in South Asia indicates that the group has accepted this new ‘business model’ and seeks to reassert its relevance in the region by opening a new branch.

Following the release of Zawahiri’s 55 minute video message, India’s intelligence bureau issued security alerts across several provinces in the county. Zawahiri’s announcement came just hours after several news reports announced that the militant group ISIS was also conducting recruitment operations in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The news reports indicated that ISIS militants were distributing pamphlets in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region; the pamphlets called for the establishment of a caliphate in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran. Zawahiri’s speech appeared to emphasise that the formation of the branch was not in direct response to ISIS, but the culmination of a longer process. In his message, he said, “This entity was not established today but is the fruit of a blessed effort of more than two years to gather the mujahedeen in the Indian sub-continent into a single entity.”

ISIS influence in India

Prior to the news reports on 5 September, ISIS was believed to focus its efforts on developing a ‘caliphate’ in areas the group had conquered in Iraq and Syria. In July, the group called for Muslims around the world to join them in establishing their new location. However it appears now that ISIS agents have been widening their efforts to recruit members of India’s Muslim community, the second largest in the world, with over 175 million Muslims.

In a speech on 5 July, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the ‘caliph’ of ISIS, made three specific references to India, first stating that Muslim rights in the nation were “forcibly seized”, then referencing atrocities committed against Muslims in Kashmir. Finally, he included India in a reference that the caliphate had “gathered the Caucasian, Indian, Chinese, Shami, Iraqi, Yemeni, Egyptian, Maghrabi, American, French, German and Australian” recruits. It is known that some Indians have already left their nation to join ISIS in Iraq and Syria. On 25 August, Indian engineering student Arif Ejaz Majeed became the first Indian reported to be killed while fighting for ISIS in Iraq. He and three friends reportedly went missing in May, and made contact with their families in June to notify them that the quartet had travelled to Iraq to join the radical group.

ISIS does not have a physical presence in India, yet through social media, the group is seeking to develop a ‘fringe’ subculture amongst potential followers in the region. Like other extreme groups, ISIS has cultivated a message which exploits the emotions of socially or economically marginalised people while simultaneously issuing a welcome for Muslims into their caliphate. The tactic is intended to attract dissatisfied members of Indian Muslim community and encourage those disenchanted individuals to do the ‘heavy lifting’ to attract others. An example of this effort already taking shape is a group called al-Isabah Media Production. The media production group is under the umbrella of a new group called Ansar ut-Tawhid fi Bilad al-Hind (Supporters of Monotheism in the Land of India). This group translates ISIS propaganda into Hindu, Urdu and Tamil, and then delivers the messages through social media. While al-Isabah’s social media profiles on YouTube, Facebook and Twitter were removed after discovery, they still spread information through online chat rooms and other forums. This shows that ISIS does not necessarily need a physical presence in order to gain momentum in the region. This momentum has been most visible in the highly disputed region of Kashmir, where reports emerged that ISIS flags were being raised by young Muslim protestors in Srinagar. During two instances in July, young men in black masks raised the ISIS flag during protests of the Israeli airstrikes in Gaza. The incidents raised concerns in Kashmir, where Sunni and Shi’a Muslims have lived together harmoniously, that the introduction of ISIS ideology could create a sectarian divide. India has a very strong moderate Islamic core which is unlikely to allow space for ISIS or AQ, however, the instances where the militant groups have gained sympathy indicate that there are areas where troubles are significant enough for the groups to exploit by introducing an artificial identity crisis.

Competition or Unity

ISIS, formerly al-Qaeda in Iraq, severed ties with AQ in early 2014. ISIS quickly gained prominence through masterful use of propaganda and their rapid advancement through Iraq and Syria. The divergent groups have since been competing for new recruits, but AQ has been left overshadowed by ISIL’s media savvy. In part, AQ has been consistently overshadowed because its leader, Zawahiri, has remained underground, while ISIS has brazenly announced is movements. It could be this distinction that drove Zawahiri into making his rare appearance last week.

In Zawahiri’s message, he states, “O mujahideen, unite and reject differences and discord, and hold firm to the rope of Allah and be not divided amongst yourselves.” These references to rejecting differences could be a veiled message to encourage the groups to unite. He adds, “This entity, Allah permitting, was established to unite with its mujahideen brothers and the Muslims all over the world, and to crush the artificial borders established by the English occupiers to divide the Muslims in the Indian subcontinent.”

It is possible that Zawahiri is desperate to reunite ISIS and AQ in order to form one organisation rather than competing for a market share of radicalised minds. There is no indication, however, that ISIS intends to reunite with AQ. On the contrary, ISIS has actively urged AQ affiliates to leave their branch and join the newer organization.

Two Attacks Target Karachi Airport, Taliban threatens “All-out War”

10 June- The Pakistani Taliban has claimed responsibility for two attacks on Jinnah International Airport within the past two days. This morning, two Taliban gunmen on motorcycle opened fire on Karachi’s airport security academy, fleeing after Pakistani forces retaliated. The attack occurred nearly 48 hours gunmen laid siege to Jinnah International Airport. The second attack ended with no casualties.

The gunmen targeted the Airport Security Force (ASF) training area north of the main airport, and are believed to gained access to the area through a nearby slum housing village. Reports indicated that the two gunmen came toward the check-post and started firing. Security forces, still on high alert from the previous attack, called in the paramilitary rangers and the army. The gunmen have not yet been found.

A day earlier, ten heavily armed Taliban fighters, some reportedly of Uzbek nationality, laid siege to Jinnah International Airport. The group was reportedly avenging the death of Hakeemullah Meshud, a former Taliban leader who was killed in a US drone strike in November 2013. Taliban fighters exchanged fire with Pakistani police and airport security for nearly six hours. All ten of the gunmen were killed, in addition to at least 11 other airport security guards and airport workers. It is believed that the fighters intended to destroy airplanes at the terminal.

Taliban spokesman Shahidullah Shahid said, “We carried out this attack on the Karachi airport and it is a message to the Pakistan government that we are still alive to react over the killings of innocent people in bomb attacks on their villages […] It is just the beginning, we have taken revenge for one [Hakeemullah], we have to take revenge for hundreds.” Shahid threatened that the group will engage in “all-out war” starting 10 June.

The missive suggests that peace talks between the Taliban and the Pakistani government have been taken off the table; Shahid called the government’s negotiation strategy a “tool of war.” Analysts speculate that the army may conduct a large-scale offensive against militant strongholds. On Tuesday morning, Pakistani fighter jets bombed Taliban positions on the Afghan border, reportedly destroying nine militant hideouts and killing 15. The government has also increased security at nuclear sites.

The attack occurred nearly two weeks after a faction of the Sanja Mehsud branch of Taliban split from the larger movement. Sajna Meshud favours peace talks with the government, and has allied with the so-called “good Taliban” groups who are supported by the Pakistani government. These groups do not want to conduct attacks on Pakistan; however some among them do support al Qaeda and other foreign terror groups.

CIA Ends Vaccine Programme

On Tuesday, the White House confirmed that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has ended the use of vaccine programmes in its spying operations amidst concerns for the safety of health workers.  In a letter to US public health schools, a White House aide indicated that the CIA had stopped such practices in August 2013.

In a letter dated 16 May, the White House assistant to the president for homeland security and counter-terrorism, Lisa Monaco, wrote that CIA director John Brennan had directed the agency to cease “operational use of vaccine programmes.”  The letter further indicated, “similarly, the agency will not seek to obtain or exploit DNA or other genetic material acquired through such programmes,” adding that the policy applied worldwide to US and non-US persons alike.

The CIA had used a fake vaccine programme in a bid to locate Osama Bin Laden before US Special Forces killed in May 2011.  Genetic material obtained through a fake door-to-door hepatitis B vaccination programme reportedly helped the CIA confirm Bin Laden’s whereabouts in the Pakistani city of Abbottabad.  The Pakistani doctor accused of running the vaccination campaign remains in jail.  Dr Shakil Afridi was convicted of having ties to militant groups, which he has denied.  He was imprisoned in 2012 in a move that is widely seen as punishment for his helping the CIA, with sources indicating that he is regarded as a traitor by Pakistan’s security agencies.

The CIA’s decision to end the use of vaccine programmes in its spying operations comes after a wave of deadly attacks by militants on polio vaccination workers in Pakistan.  According to CIA spokesman Dean Boyd, “by publicizing this policy, our objective is to dispel one canard that militant groups have used as justification for cowardly attacks against vaccination providers.”

However despite the CIA ending the programme in August, a number of health workers have been targeted, kidnapped or killed as militants suspected that they were either CIA agents or had links to it.  Since January, sixty-six cases of polio have been declared in Pakistan, compared with only eight during the same period last year.  The geographical spread of the cases suggests that they are mostly sourced to the north-western Wairistan tribal region.  Militants who control this region have banned vaccinations, citing that health workers may include American spies.    In turn, more than sixty polio workers and security personnel were killed in the country between December 2012 and April 2014.  According to Pakistani officials and humanitarian workers, most of them were killed in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

While the CIA’s announcement of ending such vaccination programmes is seen as a positive step, the CIA’s spokesman has warned that “many obstacles” still remain and will likely stand in the way of vaccination programmes.  These include myths that vaccinations cause sterility or HIV along with claims that they are spy programmes run by Western governments.  Mr Boyd noted “while the CIA can do little about the former, the CIA director felt he could do something important to dispel the latter and he acted,” adding “it is important to note that militant groups have a long history of attacking humanitarian aid workers in Pakistan and those attacks began years before the raid against the Bin Laden compound and years before any press reports claiming a CIA-sponsored vaccination programme.”

In Pakistan, the decision will likely be welcomed, as polio has been spreading fast since the Taliban banned the vaccination campaign two years ago.  Prior to the release of the letter, Professor Ibrahim Khan, an intermediary for the Taliban, had indicated that the militants wanted assurances that the vaccination programme was not being used for other purposes.  He further added that he was hopeful that the Taliban would then lift the ban on the vaccine.  However this is contingent on the success of peace negotiations with the Pakistani government.  Currently, the talks have stalled, with the Ministry of Interior indicating that access to the polio vaccination will lead the agenda in the next round of talks.

Senior Haqqani Network Leader Killed in Pakistan

Two days ago, on Monday November 11^th, Nasiruddin Haqqani, a senior member of the leadership of the Haqqani network was assassinated in Islamabad. The exact circumstances of his death, perpetrators of the attack and the subsequent removal of his body back to Waziristan remain mysterious. The Haqqani network, while based in Pakistan, is one of the major factions (and most capable) of the Afghani Taliban fighting ISAF forces in Afghanistan. The killing comes at a sensitive time for Pakistan – the leader of the Pakistani Taliban (or TTP) Hakimullah Mehsud was killed earlier this month in a drone strike, and the nascent peace process in the country appears to be on hold for the foreseeable future.

Nasiruddin Haqqani was the son of Jalaluddin Haqqani, the group’s founder and a noted commander in the anti-Soviet fighting of the 1980s. His brother, Sirajuddin, is the day-to-day operational commander of the group. Nasiruddin’s primary responsibility appears to have been as the group’s financier, responsible for business ventures, outreach and fundraising abroad. This reportedly included numerous trips to the Middle East and the Gulf region in recent years.

Nasiruddin was returning home from a mosque through the district of Baru Kahu suburb of Islamabad when multiple gunmen on motorcycles shot him, also killing an innocent bystander. Local authorities originally denied that Nasiruddin had been killed, or was even present, as his body was spirited six hours away, and past numerous military checkpoints, to Waziristan.

Pakistan has long been accused of supporting the Haqqani network, something that would explain why such a senior leader could apparently live unmolested in Islamabad for several years. While the TTP aim to overthrow the Pakistani state, the Afghani Taliban retain close connections with the Pakistani security forces, who use them counter Indian influence in Afghanistan. The Haqqani network in particular has been labelled in the past as being veritable arms of the Pakistani military intelligence service, the Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI). The Haqqani Network is considered the most dangerous of the Afghani Taliban factions, and has been responsible for numerous high profile attacks in Kabul in recent years.

The killing comes at a particular problematic time for Pakistan’s security situation. Nasiruddin was reportedly involved in facilitating dialogue and potential peace talks between the TTP and the Pakistani government. These talks were apparently on the verge of beginning when the TTP leader, Hakimullah Mehsud, was killed in a US drone strike. At first, it appeared that Khan Said Sajna, a powerful subordinate in favour of peace talks, would ascend to the leadership with reports even confirming he had been appointed. However, another leader, Mullah Fazlullah eventually emerged as the TTP’s new leader. Fazlullah reportedly rejects peace talks with the Pakistani state, and his appointment has likely crushed any serious chance of dialogue for the foreseeable future.

Security forces across Pakistan are on alert, with the possibility of revenge attacks in the country extremely high. Several Taliban fighters were killed in a shootout with police in Karachi today. The Ashura gatherings, an important part of the Shia Muslim religious calendar, begin on the 15^th of November. With Shia Muslims a common target of terrorist attacks, this period is usually a tense time for Pakistan that sees thousands of troops deployed to ensure order, with the threat of violence even higher this year due to recent events.