ISIS and Iraq Update: 2 August, 2014

Note– Flight Pattern shifts around Iraq: Due to concerns that Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS^*) might possess surface-to-air missiles, and in light of the downing of flight MH17 in Ukraine, many airlines and air safety regulators have modified flight patterns around Iraq. The US Federal Aviation Administration has raised its minimum flight altitude over Iraq to 30,000 feet and requires planes taking from countries neighbouring Iraq to reach 30,000 feet before entering Iraqi airspace. These restrictions are only applicable to US-based airlines. In Europe, aviation safety regulators will issue non-binding guidance regarding flights in Iraqi airspace. Air France and Virgin Atlantic Airways have rerouted flights away from Iraqi airspace. British Airways will continue to fly over Iraq. Emirates Airline is reviewing the situation. The UN’s air safety group met on 29 July for an urgent review of information sharing regarding flight risk around conflict zones, and will identify methods for airlines to communicate any risks.

Key Points

• Rapid ground advances slowed significantly in July as ISIS fights to maintain control of captured territory. However, cells of the group are known to be active in Baghdad.
• ISIS has developed an administrative power centre in Mosul, Iraq.
• ISIS has used extreme and violent tactics in their bid for power, such as targeting “non-believers” including Christians, Sunni, Shi’a civilians, and destroying historic and holy sites.
• ISIS has access to heavy weapons systems but is unlikely to use them beyond the short to medium term.
• Neighbouring nations have developed plans for domestic protection and border security.
• In hopes of building a unity government, the Iraqi parliament has elected a new Speaker and President, and is in the process of electing a Prime Minister.
• Iraq has called upon the US and Russia to provide more military weaponry.
• As fighting has not advanced south, there has been no significant change in oil sector contingency planning.
• Companies in the banking sectors do not appear to be adversely impacted by ISIS, but have developed contingency plans in the event of emergency evacuations or a breakdown of the banking system.

Latest Incidents

17 July: The Iraqi Parliament elected Sunni politician Salim al-Jubouri as its speaker. This marks the first important steps toward building a national unity government.

20 July: ISIS burns an 1800 year old church to the ground in Mosul.

21 July: Iraqi forces reportedly withdraw from a skirmish with ISIL fighters at Camp Speicher, a key base in Tikrit. Early press reports indicated that ISIL intended to set up an administration in the city. Hours later, Iraqi Special Forces conducted counterattack operations, retaking control of the base.

21 July: ISIS militants forced nine Christian monks out of a 1,600 year old Christian monastery in northern Iraq. Peshmerga soldiers found the monks walking miles away from the monastery and moved them to safety.

23 July: ISIS claims responsibility for a suicide bombing in a Shi’a neighbourhood in Baghdad that killed 33 people and wounded 50. The Iraqi Council of Representatives postponed their sessions to elect a new president for 24 hours.

24 July: ISIS reportedly creates “Euphrates Province” which straddles both sides of the Syria and Iraq borders. The province is reportedly intended to erase the border between the two nations. Cities within the region include Albu Kamal and Hajin in Syria, and al-Qaim in Iraq.

24 July: ISIS denies claims that it is initiating Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) in women and girls ages 11-46.

24 July: Hours before a Parliament vote on the presidency, an attack on a convoy of prisoners near Baghdad left over 60 people dead. Later, two car bombs struck in central Baghdad killing almost two dozen as restaurants were filled with residents breaking their Ramadan fast.

24 July: Fouad Massoum, veteran liberal politician and senior member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) is elected president of the Iraqi Republic. This fulfilled the second step toward developing a new unity government.

30 July: A car bomb in eastern Baghdad killed one civilian and injured nine. Later in the day, a second car bomb detonates in the Shiite enclave of Sadr City in Baghdad, killing 2 civilians and injuring 11.

30 July: Conflicting news reports emerge as to whether Prime Minister al-Maliki will run for a third term. A Member of Parliament reportedly said al-Maliki withdrew his candidacy for the post because of political pressure, however later in the day, a spokesman for the State of Law Coalition denied those claims, adding that al-Maliki remains committed to run for a third term.

1 August: The United Nations reports that 1,737 people, mostly civilians, were killed non-ISIS controlled parts of in Iraq in July. The number is down from 2,400 in June. The toll excludes casualties in the Anbar province that is held by ISIS.

Analysis of ISIS

On 23 July, Ed Royce, Chairman of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee stated, “Never has a terrorist organization itself controlled such a large, resource-rich safe haven as ISIS does today. Never has a terrorist organization possessed the heavy weaponry, cash and personnel that ISIS does today.” Since June, ISIS has held control of a large portion of Iraq and Syria, creating a corridor between the two nations. Despite their plans for continued and rapid ground advances, the group has slowed considerably as it develops an administrative base in Mosul. ISIS has amassed a great deal of wealth through donations, extortion, and the capture of money and resources, allowing them to attract recruits from around the world through targeted and flashy social media campaigns.

Income: ISIS has been called one of the wealthiest terror organisations in the world, and their hold on oil fields in Iraq and Syria allow them to produce up to 80,000 barrels of oil a day. Current global market prices for oil hover around US $100 a barrel, which could fetch $8 million per day. However on the black market, the price sinks to between $10 and $22, due to cuts taken by middlemen to transport the oil. ISIS has made up for this by using their own fleet of tankers, and is estimated to be profiting at a rate of $50 to $60 a barrel. While this amounts to millions of dollars a day, it is a temporary profit sector for two reasons: First, ISIS does not have the skilled tradesmen and technicians necessary to maintain the oil fields; and second, following new regulations, nations or groups caught violating sanctions against ISIS face the threat of United Nations action.

Apart from oil, ISIS also gains income through mafia-style “protection” insurance, extortion, enforcing local taxes, donations, and smuggling. In total, ISIS has an average monthly income of US $12 million.

Weaponry: Within the territories, ISIS seized a number of weapons caches which were abandoned by Iraqi soldiers. The group has control of a range of artillery spanning from BM-21, towed and self-propelled artillery to anti-aircraft cannons ZSU 23-4, as well as a number of armoured fighting vehicles, Humvees, and M1 Abrams main battle tanks. It remains unlikely ISIS will use heavier artillery, as it requires extensive maintenance, and is only useful in the hands of skilled fighters. Analysts still believe that heavy weaponry will be stripped for parts or traded for mortars, small arms and IED components, which are effective in the hands of both skilled and unskilled fighters.

Recruitment Efforts: On 31 July, ISIS released an eight-minute promotional video entitled “Join the Ranks”, which featured a number of Indonesian nationals urging Muslims in Indonesia to join the fight. In the video, a man calling himself “Abu Muhammad al-Indonesi” delivered an impassioned, sometimes angry speech, in which he states that it is an obligation mandated by Allah for Muslims to participate in this fight and pledge their allegiance. ISIS sees great potential in Indonesia as at least 56 Indonesians have joined the militant group. This latest promotional video comes after the release of similar videos featuring Muslims from Australia, Canada, Chile and Germany.

In late July, ISIS also published the first issue of their official state magazine, Dabiq. The magazine outlines the group’s direction, recruitment methods, political and military strategy, and tribal alliances. The magazine has been published in English as well as several European languages. Its purpose is multi-fold; first it intends to call Muslims to the new caliphate by detailing stories of success and support. Second, it aims to show the justification of their cause by enumerating the atrocities against the group while simultaneously displaying images of their own violence. Finally, the magazine is meant as a sort of educational tool to justify the existence and nature of the caliphate, and to underscore legitimacy and political and religious authority over all Muslims. This is achieved by defining a destiny for the group that is linked to apocalyptic literature. Even the name Dabiq refers to a city in Syria that is said to be a site of great fighting during Armageddon (Malahim). The magazine states, “One of the greatest battles between the Muslims and the crusaders will take place near Dabiq.” The magazine is not dissimilar to Inspire Magazine, the periodical issued by rival group Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). As there is an overt competition for recruits, it is not surprising that ISIS is using this platform to lure current members and potential recruits away from AQAP and into ISIS.

In addition to promotional videos, recruiters have been discovered internationally and online. In April, a 19 year-old woman from Colorado in the US was arrested as she attempted to fly to Syria to meet her online suitor, a Tunisian man who claimed to be a member of ISIS. The woman attended a military tactics and firearms training course with the US Army Explorers earlier in the year, with intentions to help ISIS fighters who shared her “view of Islam as requiring participation in violent jihad against any non-believers.”

Recruitment of Women: ISIS has two female battalions based in the northern Syrian city of Raqqah. The battalions are called “Al-Khansaa” and “Umm al-Rayan”. Recruits must be female, between the ages of 18 and 25, single, and can have no other jobs outside of ISIS. If they join, they receive a monthly salary of 25,000 Syrian liras, nearly US $170.

These all female battalions have a duty to “expose male activists who disguise in women’s clothing to avoid detention when stopping at the ISIS checkpoints,” after learning that men in opposition groups have dressed in burqas to pass through checkpoints easily. These all-female brigades set up checkpoints to search female passersby, as men cannot search women. It is also suspected, but unverified, that the battalions have a secondary role of enforcing the strict rules of the caliphate on women, including enforcing dress codes.

Expansion: On 1 July, Islamic State called for willing Muslims, particularly scholars, judges, doctors, engineers and people with military and administrative expertise, to move to the “Islamic State” and develop the new caliphate. The vast majority of the Muslim world has been dismissive of the caliphate, preferring to focus on Ramadan and the World Cup. With little support and a great deal of opposition, in the past month the group has made few efforts toward expansion, with the exception of certain oil fields in Syria. Rather, they are concentrating on maintaining control of currently held grounds and implementing an administration with an extremist interpretation of Sharia Law. While the group has slowed their ground offensive, it is known that there are cells of ISIS in Baghdad with the intention of causing violence and disruption in the city’s security. ISIS has claimed responsibility for several car bombings in Baghdad, mainly targeting Shi’a districts. ISIS has also committed a series of atrocities against Christians, and Shi’a and Sunni Muslims inside and outside of their control zone.

Violence and Religious Targeting: ISIS appears to be indiscriminate in its rampant targeting of what they consider “kafirs” (non-believers). The group has become known for mass murders, violent beheadings and crucifixions. ISIS has targeted Christians in Northern Iraqi cities, particularly in Mosul. Since capturing areas in the north, the group has imposed anti-Christian rule, including ordering Muslim employers to fire Christian workers. On 18 July, ISIS gave Christians in Mosul a 48 hour deadline to comply with their directive: Christians must either convert to Islam, pay tax, leave, or be killed. Homes belonging to Christians were marked with the Arabic letter noon ( ﻦ ), to stand for “Nazarene”. Christians in Mosul, who once numbered over 50,000, fled to a nearby town and the homes of Christian leaders were ransacked. Evacuated Christian properties have been reportedly seized and marked with signs reading: “This is the property of the Islamic State.”

The bulk of the Christian population fled to nearby Qaraqosh, leaving Mosul devoid of Christians for the first time in nearly 1600 years. Qaraqosh, a city approximately 20 miles south of Mosul, is protected by the Peshmerga, well-armed Kurdish fighters from the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan who seek to absorb Qaraqosh and surrounding villages.

Rather than fighting with the Peshmerga, ISIS has responded by blocking pipes that connect the town to the Tigris River, effectively cutting off the city’s water supply. The town has become reliant on rationed water being shipped in from Kurdish controlled areas, and residents pay US $10 every two days to refill their water tanks. NGOs have also erected water depots, but they are insufficient to supply the growing number of evacuees coping with the summer heat. In addition, Qaraqosh suffers hours-long electrical blackouts, and ISIS has placed an embargo against the city, preventing nearby towns from conducting trade with merchants in Qaraqosh. The situation has forced residents to drive to different cities in search of income.

On 20 July, ISIS burned an 1800 year old church to the ground. One day later, monks residing at the Mar Behnam monastery were evacuated by ISIS fighters. The monastery, run by the Syriac Catholic Church, is an important Christian pilgrimage site dating back to the 4th century.  The monks asked to save some of the monastery’s relics but were refused. The evacuated monks were picked up by Peshmerga fighters several miles from the monastery. It must be noted here that ISIS, who claim to be Sunni Muslims, evicted the Christians, who were taken in by Sunni Kurds.

Christians are not alone in facing discrimination by ISIS. Shi’a Muslims, as well as Yazidis (a sect linked to Zoroastrianism) are reportedly killed immediately upon identification. Reports indicate that this initial identification and differentiation between Shi’a and Sunni Muslims is based on four questions. ISIS members ask the person’s name, where they live, how they pray, and what music they listen to. These questions can help to identify, respectively and to some degree, whether they hail from a historically Shi’a family, if they live in a Shi’a neighbourhood, whether they use the Shia or Sunni prayer position (Sunni Muslim’s fold their hands or cross their arms in front of their stomachs; Shi’as leaving their arms extended, palms resting on their thighs), and whether their music, if religious, is of Sunni or Shi’a nature.

Sunni Muslims, the segment of the population that ISIS claims to represent, have been targeted as well; in June and July, ISIS targeted a number of Sunni imams and muftis in Iraq. Various tolls of targeted attacks on Sunni citizens in Iraq and Syria show that ISIS may have killed as many as 700 Sunni Muslims. Further, ISIS has demanded the allegiance of nearby Sunni militant groups, most of which are in direct opposition to ISIS. Several of these groups have refused to take this oath, which also requires the groups to hand over all weapons. The resultant clashes have led to a number of deadly battles in Syria and Iraq.

Inside ISIS controlled zones, residents are subjected to an extremely militant, loosely adapted version of Sharia law. On 19 June, ISIS tweeted images from a trial in which a Muslim woman was accused of adultery and then stoned to death. The photos did not show the woman, however they did show a gathering of male ISIS members in attendance to watch the event.

Most puzzling, however, is ISIS’ rampant destruction of Shrines that are sacred to Abrahamic religions (Judaism, Christianity, and Islam). On 9 July, a video attributed to ISIS was posted on YouTube showing an ancient tomb being destroyed. Iraqi government officials say it is “almost certainly” the tomb of Biblical prophet Jonah, who is also a prophet in the Jewish and Islamic faiths. The group has destroyed over 30 holy shrines for Sunni and Shi’a Muslims, as well as historically significant Christian and Abrahamic sites, causing international outrage. The combined actions indicate that ISIS, while claiming to be a religious group, is merely using the guise of religion to justify their atrocities and organized crime.

Pushback: ISIS is facing opposition from Syrian, Kurdish and Iraqi military fighters, as well as anti-extremist civilian militias, sectarian militias, rival militias, and a growing number of tribes in the regions that once supported their activities. The group, which is estimated to number at 10,000 members, has been stretched thin. To accommodate this, the group is likely to shift their strategy from brute force to guerrilla tactics in order to gain territory.

Internationally, Muslims continue to express outrage at the caliphate, calling it “heretical”, “reckless” and a “mockery of Islam”. Islamic scholars and political leaders have accused ISIS of distorting the concept of the caliphate for its own purposes. In a speech on 1 August, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah castigated militants who are “killing innocent people and mutilating their bodies in contravention of Islamic teachings.” The King then called upon regional leaders and religious scholars to prevent Islam from being hijacked by militants. In the first issue of Dabiq, ISIS addresses why Saudi Arabia’s concerns that they will be the next target are well-founded. In June, Saudi Arabia moved 30,000 troops to their borders to protect the kingdom. Likewise, Jordan has reinforced troops along its border. Hamas, which ISIS calls “too moderate”, has called ISIS is a direct challenge to their regime. King Abdullah’s sentiments have been praised by former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri; particularly as the Syrian War has already deeply impacted Lebanon.

Even in online radical militant forums, members are opposed to the rampant destruction and violence conducted by ISIS. One writer, calling himself Faruq al-Iraq, wrote, “You claim to follow in the path of the Prophet (Mohammed), but you are the first to stray from his word,” adding that there was no theological justification for destroying the shrines. This comment has been echoed by many other online posts from people who, only weeks earlier, had fully endorsed the caliphate.

Domestically, civil militias are taking up the posts of combating ISIS. The Sunni majority in the controlled region initially welcomed ISIS, believing they would put an end to sectarian policing. However that opinion soured quickly as ISIS conducted atrocities against the residents and destroyed historic holy sites, churches and mosques in a show of force. In Mosul, a group of students, civil servants, and merchants have formed a militia called Kataeb al-Mosul (The Mosul Brigades). In the past week, Kataeb al-Mosul has reportedly killed five ISIS militants, and intends to conduct more operations. Residents have been told “not to cooperate with Daash [Arabic word for ISIS] in any way.”

Analysis

ISIS has been outspoken about plans continue to absorb additional ground in the region, including Iraq’s capital city, Baghdad. While advances toward the capital were halted in July, their reach has stretched through to areas outside of its control. ISIS has claimed responsibility for a number of bombings in Baghdad, particularly in Shi’a dominated areas. This suggests that while they do not currently have the capability to both hold their controlled territory and continue their advance, they intend to take measures to weaken the security in Baghdad and shake the government as it seeks to establish new leadership.

ISIS has turned Mosul into an ersatz power centre in direct opposition to Baghdad. In doing so, Iraq is effectively broken into three separate states: Kurdish controlled territories on Iraq’s northwest borders with Turkey and Iran, ISIS controlled zones in the northeast and to the Syrian border, and government-controlled Iraq to the south, which is struggling with sectarian violence. This breakup, while unofficial, is not unexpected. The US government estimated as early as 2003 that Iraq could break into three distinct states with differing and feuding religious and ethnic factors, and result in a failed state which could become a safe haven for terrorism. There is a growing sense that if the country does not break into three states, Baghdad will still not be able to control the entire nation for some time; it is speculated that a decentralized Iraqi government is the most likely way forward.

The strongest defence Iraq has from becoming a failed state is a united federal government system that can impose a sense of national unity and a willingness to combat ISIS regardless of sectarian identities. To this end, the incoming parliament selected a new speaker, moderate Sunni Salim al-Jubouri, on 17 July. A week later, moderate Kurdish politician Fouad Massoum was named the new president of Iraq. Since 2003, the position of Iraqi President has always been a Kurd; the Speaker of Parliament has been Sunni, and the Prime Minister a Shi’a.

The selection of prime minister is likely to be the most contentious. Current Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki has been internationally criticised for pro-Shi’a sectarian policies, including empowering Shi’a militias to target Sunni Muslims at will. It is in this environment that the ISIS has thrived, manipulating the emotions of Sunni citizens and tribal groups to grow their influence and control. Despite conflicting reports, Maliki has stated that he intends to run for a third term as Prime Minister. His political party, State of Law Coalition, won the largest bloc of seats in parliament, and therefore has the right to form the government. The Prime Minister, in turn, has the right to assemble his Cabinet. Al-Maliki has brazenly insisted he will remain at the helm, and has threatened that his cabinet will not include “rival” Kurds or Sunni Arabs.

The Kurds, meanwhile, seek to create an autonomous government, yet their involvement in Iraq’s central government is crucial in both developing a united front against ISIS and keeping Iraq from devolving into a failed state. However, the Kurds are also aware that they have the best chance for survival if they break away from Iraq. The Peshmerga (Kurdish armed forces) have stepped up to assist the Christian population that was evacuated in Mosul in late July, and has used the opportunity to put “protections” around villages where Christians have retreated, in a de facto annexation of Iraqi land. Likewise, the Kurds have protected Muslims and Arabs in lands that serve as corridors between disconnected areas within Kurdish control.

Iraqi Defence

On 21 July, the Iraqi ambassador to the US called on the Americans to launch “precision air attacks” on territories held by ISIS. H.E. Lukman Faily said that “the US should offer air support targeting terrorist camps and supply convoys in remote areas,” adding that the strikes would protect Iraq from a further terrorist influx, particularly through the Iraq/Syria corridor which has been created by ISIS.

Iraq is awaiting a shipment of US 24 Apache helicopters and 36 F-16 fighter planes that have been delayed through bureaucratic controls associated with foreign military sales. The F-16 shipment is expected to arrive in the autumn, after which time Iraqi pilots will need to be trained to operate the machinery. There is no scheduled date for the Apache helicopters. Speaking on the delays, Faily said they had an “adverse impact” on Iraq, adding that Washington’s slow pace “also has created questions for us back home” about Washington’s commitment to Iraq.

Currently, there are approximately 200 US military advisers serving in two operations centres in Iraq, and US warplanes are conducting approximately 50 surveillance flights per day in Iraqi airspace. While the US is reluctant to conduct military operations in Iraq, on 31 July, the United States announced plans to sell 5,000 Hellfire missiles to Iraq in a $700 million deal, pending Congressional approval. If passed, which is expected, it will be the largest sale of lethal missiles to Iraq. The sale will include equipment, parts, training and logistical support. The AGM-114K/N/R can be fired from AC-208 Cessna Caravan planes and other aircraft. Prior to the deal, the US has shipped approximately 780 Hellfire missiles to Iraq since July.

Meanwhile, Russia shipped Sukhoi-25 fighter jets in June, and reports indicate that the Iraqi government has signed a US $1 billion deal with Russia for the sale of at least two battalions of Grad rocket launchers, mortars, anti-tank missiles and other weaponry. The government is in ongoing talks to purchase an additional ten Sukhoi 27-30 fighter jets.

Lukman Faily stated that Iran has offered military assistance, which the Iraqi government has reportedly declined. However, reliable Arabic media sources suggest that as many as 2,000 Iranian troops are operating inside Iraq. This includes members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, who are believed to be organising Shi’a militias to fight ISIL.

Kurdish Defence: The Kurdistan Regional Government has also asked the US to supply them with sophisticated weaponry to reinforce the Peshmerga as they attempt to deal with the ISIS threat. They are seeking tanks, sniper equipment, armoured personnel carriers, artillery and ammunition, as well as helmets, body armour, fuel trucks and ambulances. The US has been wary of providing such weaponry for fear that the arms could be used in the Kurdish fight to break away from Iraq.  The Kurds are fighting ISIS on the Syrian and Iraqi borders, but with the intention of protecting the areas which they consider as Kurdish. They have not fought ISIS in cities beyond their borders, but in some instances have “annexed” areas into their protection. In some cities, for example Hasika in Syria, regional armies have handed some parts of the land to the Kurds in order to protect area, believing the Kurds to be the only group that can push back the ISIS militants. The Peshmerga may also operate in areas that serve as land bridges between Kurdish controlled territories which are not connected to one another. Currently, the battle between Kurds and ISIS is for control of land and resources, particularly oil facilities. On 1 August, Peshmerga forces clashed with ISIS fighters in Zumar, on Iraq’s border with Syria. ISIS fighters stormed an oil installation in the town and captured six bunkers from the oil police. Later in the day, the Peshmerga forces conducted a surprise counter-attack, regaining the installation and expelling ISIS militants from the region.

Summary

Economically, ISIS is insolvent. Despite the wealth and resources available to ISIS, they appear to be struggling in their dual role as fighters and administrators. According to Michael Knights, a Middle East expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, ISIS has “gone from being the world’s richest terrorist organization to the world’s poorest state.” The $12 million income that ISIS pulls in every month is a decent sum for a terrorist organisation, but grossly insufficient to support a state.

The oil flow that ISIS currently relies on for nearly 40% of its monthly income is dependent on finding and keeping technicians with the capability to maintain the oil fields that the group has captured, and according to several reports, the turnover rate is high. In addition, a large portion of the money that comes from extortion and taxes is beginning to dry out. The money ISIS was extorting from public servants disappeared after Baghdad froze public salaries in the region. In fact, ISIS has become responsible for providing a salary to the same public servants it once extorted, in addition to paying for fighters, paying for support from tribal leaders, and providing basic public services, such as trash removal, electricity, water supplies, and other civil requirements normally controlled by a central government. The group’s 80,000 barrels a day and $12 million monthly income suddenly becomes paltry, particularly when compared to Iraq’s 3 million barrels a day (from southern Iraq) and monthly income of $10 billion. Because ISIS has made enemies of like-minded organisations, they cannot ask for support from other radical groups.

ISIS has also weakened itself in a way that it may not have expected. In destroying historic shrines and holy sites, they made enemies in every sector of the nation. In July, ISIS militants announced they would target the Hadba, a minaret dating back to the 12th century that leans like the Tower of Pisa. The Hadba is a national icon which features on Iraqi currency. Residents in and near Mosul rushed to the site to form a human chain around the minaret, and forced ISIS to back down. It is possible that by destroying these sites, ISIS has done what no government could do since the downfall of Saddam Hussein: create a sense of national unity.

The continued destruction of historic and holy sites could be a bridge too far, sparking the dual reactions of dissuading even the most radicalised among militants from joining ISIS, while simultaneously converting Iraqi fear into anger, generating a the very nationalism that that has prevented Iraqis from working together to dismantle ISIS.

Oil and Banking Sector Impacts

With the slowing of ground advances by ISIS, there have not been any significant changes to the oil sector. Approximately 75% of Iraq’s oil is in the Shi’a dominated south. There have been fears that ISIS will attempt to advance south to gain control of those resources, but indicators suggest that a brute force siege is unlikely. Southern Iraqi oil facilities are not under immediate threat; however oil companies in the region remain on high alert with 100,000 Iraqi police with protecting oil facilities.

Oil battles have mainly occurred between Baghdad and the Kurdish regional government. In mid July, the Peshmerga expanded their area of control into oil-rich Kirkuk, where they seized two key facilities located just outside the city. The Kurdish regional government has begun pumping oil from the Kirkuk field into their pipelines to sell to Turkey. The Kurds claim that since Baghdad has not met its commitment to financially support the regional government, they are left with no choice but to sell their own oil. Meanwhile, Baghdad calls the move illegal.

In the banking sector, no changes have occurred to adversely impact banking security in the region. International banking companies have developed contingency plans to relocate operations and protect client assets in the event of a breakdown in the banking system, but otherwise, regional banks continue business as usual. Foreign banks are still advising multinational corporate clients to reduce the amount of cash they keep in Iraq to a minimum.

MENA Update: 17 June 17, 2014

Egypt

17 June – Egypt’s New Cabinet Sworn In

Egypt’s Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahleb was sworn in on Tuesday, retaining his position at the head of President Abdel-Fatah al-Sisi’s new government. Al-Sisi also retained key economic and security ministers, and created a new post for Investment Minister to attract funds to the Egyptian economy. Egypt’s government is facing a long task of economic rejuvenation. The economy is forecast to grow at just 3.2 percent in the fiscal year that begins on July 1, insufficient to create new jobs and ease poverty. The government must re-stimulate tourism, close the deficit gap, address long-standing corruption and reassess a costly subsidy system. Ministers will provide Mahleb with a weekly plan to review at cabinet meetings.

Egypt’s new Investment Minister is Ashraf Salman, the co-founder and co-CEO of Cairo Financial Holding. The new Foreign Minister is former ambassador to Washington Sameh Shukri, and the Minister of International Cooperation is university professor Naglaa El Ahwany. The ministers of ministers for finance, defence, interior, planning, oil, electricity, supplies and communications have remained in place from the previous regime.

16 June – Journalist Abdullah Elshamy to be released

The Egyptian government will release Al Jazeera’s journalist, Abdullah Elshamy, because of his deteriorating health stemming from his hunger strike. Elshamy was arrested on August 14, the day that soldiers and the police used deadly force to break up Islamist protest against the overthrow of former President Mohamed Morsi. He had been detained without charges and began his hunger strike four months ago. Egyptian state news said that prosecutors were releasing 11 others, who were not identified.

Next Monday, a judge will rule on charges against three Al Jazeera journalists. Mohamed Fadel Fahmy, Peter Greste, and Baher Mohamed were accused of conspiring with the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) to broadcast false reports in order to bring down Egypt’s new military-backed government. The prosecution has not disclosed any evidence regarding the charges. Al Jazeera is currently the only broadcaster in Egypt that is sympathetic to the MB; supporters of the military-backed government have called the news station a terrorist organization.

Iran

17 June – British Embassy may re-open in Tehran

UK Foreign Secretary William Hague is expected to announce a plans leading to the re-opening of the British embassy in Tehran, after all diplomatic relations between the UK and Iran were suspended in 2011. The unexpected move comes as Iraqi forces clash with the militant group Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), which has captured several cities in Iraq over the past week. The speed and organization of ISIS has created a shared interest in among the UK and Iran in confronting the group. Relations between the two nations under former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were extremely tense; however in 2013, the election of more moderate President Hassan Rouhani proved a vital step in improving relations between Iran and the West, particularly after Iran’s agreement to scale back its nuclear programme earlier this year. The UK government is still concerned about Iran’s role in supporting the Assad regime in Syria; it is expected the relationship born of necessity may experience tensions.

Iraq

17 June – ISIS advances spark discussions of separatism, action

The Sunni Islamist militant group, ISIS, have made major advances in the past week. New reports indicate the group has taken over parts of Baquba, 37 miles from Baghdad. If the group successfully captures the city, they will have uninterrupted access down major highways into Baghdad.  On Monday, ISIS claimed control over the city of Tal Afar, which lies between previously captured Mosul and the Syrian border. News reports show the air strikes being conducted by the Iraqi Air Force in the strategic region.

The prime minister of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region, Nechirvan Barzani, believes Iraq may break into separate regions, saying it will be hard for Iraq to return to the situation that existed before ISIS took control of major cities last week. He added that Sunni Muslims in the region are angered due to their neglect by the Shia-dominated Iraqi government. Barzani believes a political solution is the only way forward, possibly leading to an autonomous Sunni region: “We have to leave it to Sunni areas to decide but I think this is the best model for them as well. First they have to take a decision: what they want exactly. And in our view… the best way is to have a Sunni region, like we have in Kurdistan.”

US President Barack Obama has announced that 275 military personnel are being sent to Iraq to defend US citizens and the embassy in Baghdad, and will attempt to relocate embassy staff to consulates in Basra and Ibril. Obama has ruled out sending ground troops to fight ISIS, but has left the door open for targeted drone strikes. The aircraft carrier USS George HW Bush has been deployed to the Gulf, accompanied by two more warships. On their path through Iraq, ISIS fighters have conducted mass executions, with images and footage being aired on international stations, and confirmed as real by the Iraqi military.

Jordan

17 June – Jordan’s UN Ambassador Elected High Commissioner for Human Rights

The UN General Assembly has unanimously Jordan’s UN ambassador and permanent representative to the UN, Prince Zeid Ra’ad Zeid al-Hussein, as the new United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. He will begin his four-year mandate on 1 September, 2014. Zeid al-Hussein will be “the first high commissioner from the Asian continent and from the Muslim and Arab worlds.” He is currently

The UN Human Rights Council promotes and protects global human rights, including civil, cultural, economic, political and social rights, including the right to development. The High Commissioner functions as the UN official with principal responsibility for global human rights efforts.

Kuwait/ Lebanon

16 June – Kuwait to Provide Housing to Syrian Refugees in Lebanon

Dr. Abdullah Al-Maatouq, Chairman of International Islamic Charity Organization (IICO), has announced that Kuwait will provide 1,000 housing units to the Syrian refugees in Lebanon. The units will be integrated with necessary services, including clinics, schools, and mosques. Al-Maatouq and others called on the Lebanese government to specify the location for the new housing units. Lebanon hosts more than one million Syrian refugees, comprising nearly a quarter of its population. Lebanon, one of the smallest countries in the region, is now hosting the largest numbers of refugees. The IICO has previously built 2,000 houses in the Zaatari camp in Jordan and 2,000 houses in a camp in Turkey.

Libya

15 June – Hiftar Launches another Offensive in Benghazi

Renegade Libyan general Khalifa Hiftar launched another offensive against Islamist militants in Benghazi, resulting in 12 deaths, 18 wounded, and causing dozens of families to flee the area. In fighting on Sunday, large parts of Eastern Libya suffered a disruption of power supplies after rockets hit a power station near Benghazi’s airport. Hiftar’s spokesman, Mohamed El Hejazi, said his forces had detained five leaders from militant groups. Hiftar has declared war against militants in Benghazi, and while he has no official authority, several Libyan army units have joined forces with him.

Some analysts believe that Hifter is supported by neighbouring nations, including Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, which are worried about Islamist militants exploiting the chaos in Libya. At a news conference on Sunday, Hiftar praised Egypt’s new president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi for his work in cracking down on the Muslim Brotherhood, which Hiftar called an “international spy network”. He also accused Qatar of fuelling Libya’s chaos: “There is no doubt Qatar supports the militias in Libya,” later adding that Qatar was hampering the formation of a national army and police force in Libya.

The latest fighting in Libya comes less than two weeks before a parliamentary election. Libyans hope the elections will put an end political infighting and install an authoritative government.

Morocco

14 June – Guards stop Illegal Migrants from Crossing Spain/Morocco Border

Nearly 1,000 African migrants were halted in their attempts to storm a three-tier, barbed wire border fence separating Morocco from the Spanish enclave Melilla. Moroccan security forces drove back the migrants in the latest attempts to cross into Spanish territory. Illegal immigration has reached crisis levels in recent years; estimates by the Interior Ministry in Madrid suggest that nearly 40,000 sub-Saharan Africans are waiting for an opportunity to go to Spain. In addition, there are increasing numbers of boats attempting to reach Europe from North Africa. These boats often originate in Libya amid the chaos in the nation. A majority of migrants have come from Syria, Eritra, and other impoverished regions in Africa.

Syria

17 June – UN Report Suggests Sectarian War Engulfing Iraq and Syria

In a report released on Tuesday, UN human rights investigators say the Middle East appears on the brink of wider sectarian war engulfing Iraq and Syria. Militants from ISIS have seized the north of Iraq in the past week, linking it with territory previously taken in eastern Syria. In Syria, the report states, “Growing numbers of radical fighters are targeting not only Sunni (Muslim) communities under their control but also minority communities including the Shi’ites, Alawites, Christians, Armenians, Druze and Kurds,” and adds that ISIS kidnapped nearly 200 Kurdish civilians in Aleppo at the end of May. “ISIL has shown itself willing to fan the flames of sectarianism, both in Iraq and in Syria. Any strengthening of their position gives rise to great concern,” the report said.

“The international community, and specifically the (UN) Security Council, have yet to demand that the individuals perpetrating crimes against the men, women and children of Syria are held responsible. Through their inaction, a space has been created for the worst of humanity to express itself,” the report said.

Tunisia

16 June – Tunisia proposes Autumn Parliamentary and Presidential Elections

Tunisia’s election authority has proposed a parliamentary vote in October and the first round of presidential polls in late November. The nation has been run by a caretaker government since 2011; the government that saw through the adoption of a new constitution and has been lauded as a model of democratic evolution in an unstable region.

The proposal suggests holding parliamentary elections on October 26, and the first session of the presidential vote on November 23, with the second session on December 28.The proposal is widely accepted to be approved within coming days.

In the first post-revolution elections in 2011, the moderate Islamist Ennahda party won, but came under fire for perceived mishandling of the economy and lenience towards radical Islamist groups. Backlash against the party escalated sharply after the assassination of two secular opposition leaders in 2013, which caused the party to resign and hand control to a technocratic caretaker government.

Ennahda, and the secular party Nida Tounes, are expected to be the strongest election contenders in October. Nida Tounes will be open to a governing coalition with Ennahda if the next elections do not produce a clear majority. The Ennahda party said that Tunisia must be governed by consensus over the next five years to anchor its fragile democracy.

Elections commission chief Sarsar said last month that the new electoral law would assure a free and fair vote, with more than 1,000 international observers invited to monitor it.

United Arab Emirates

12 June – UAE Begins Compulsory Military Service

The UAE has instituted a compulsory military service law aimed at safeguarding peace and stability in the Gulf and combating terrorism. The law applies to all males between the ages of 18 and 30 and in good medical health. Men who have a high school degree or its equivalent will serve nine months, while those who do not have a high school diploma will serve for two years.

The law was imposed to protect UAE strategic resources and prepare for threats, and also to “teach its people, men and women, of solidarity through military service,” said Mousa Qallab, a senior researcher for the Orient Research Center in the UAE.

The small Gulf nation is in the centre of a politically instable region, with many surrounding nations experiencing significant upheaval. In addition, the UAE has a territorial dispute with Iran, over three Gulf islands controlled by the Islamic republic.

Apart from the UAE, the government of Qatar in 2013 also approved a draft bill making it compulsory for males to enlist for military service for a period of up to four months. It is believed that Kuwait is also debating drafting legislation for mandatory military service.

Qallab added, “It is important that the Gulf States strengthen their military forces. Regional security must be ensured because here we have over half of the oil reserves in the world, and we export about 35 percent of them to industrialized regions across the world.”

Yemen

16 June – Yemeni President orders Removal of Artillery

Yemeni President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi has ordered the removal of heavy artillery from hills surrounding Sana’a over fears of a coup led by his predecessor Ali Abdullah Saleh and his supporters. Saleh ruled Yemen for 33 years before being ousted in 2012 and replaced by his long-time deputy.

A statement by the Yemeni army said, “The military leadership has dismantled heavy artillery and rockets that were positioned on hills around Sana’a following information of a coup plot [by Saleh] whose loyalists continue to infiltrate the army.” The weapons had been stationed on the hills to secure Yemen from al Qaida insurgency, a northern rebellion and a southern separatist movement.

The decision to move the weapons comes after the Hadi’s presidential guard, backed by armoured vehicles, surrounded a mosque controlled by ousted president Ali Abdullah Saleh in Sana’a late Saturday. It is believed that weapons had been stored in the large mosque in the city and were being guarded by gunmen loyal to Saleh. A tunnel connecting the site to the presidential palace had also been discovered. Hadi ordered that the mosque and its surroundings be handed over to the presidential guard.

The mosque siege came days after authorities closed the Yemen Today newspaper and television channel. Both stations are owned by Saleh and have often been accused of biased coverage of the post-Saleh government and of inciting protests in Sana’a against power cuts and water and fuel shortages. Analysts have accused Saleh of impeding Yemen’s political transition.

MENA UPDATE: 8 May, 2014

Algeria

8 May: Approximately 50 illegal migrants have gone missing in the desert along the border between Algeria and Niger after being abandoned by their smugglers. Nigerien authorities alerted their Algerian counterparts to the disappearance of the migrants, including women and children. The Algerian army immediately mobilized ground and airborne units in a wide-scale search operation, however, chances are slim to find them alive due to the harsh weather conditions in the area. The source also indicated that the missing migrants may not have crossed the Algerian border.

7 May: In an ongoing operation, Algerian troops have killed 10 militants near Tin-Zaouatine, bordering Mali. The army also captured eight automatic Kalashnikov-type rifles, an RPG-7 rocket launcher, technical equipment and a “large amount” of ammunition. The operation began after “effective use of information on suspicious movements of a terrorist group.” Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, in his first comments since his re-election, called it “an attempted infiltration by a heavily armed terrorist group with elements from Mali, Libya and from Tunisia.” In April, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) claimed responsibility for an ambush on army patrols in the mountains east. The attack killed 14 soldiers, making it the deadliest attack on the military in years.

Egypt

8 May: Egypt’s interim government will restore daylight saving beginning 15 May to alleviate a crippling energy crisis. Daylight saving time was abolished three years ago, however, energy crisis, exacerbated by hours-long crippling blackouts in Cairo and other provinces, has prompted its reintroduction. The holy month of Ramadan will be exempt from Daylight Savings time, to help reduce fasting time. Ramadan, which begins in late June this year, is when Muslims fast from sunrise to sunset.

The energy crisis is a major platform in the current election campaigns. The candidates— Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi and Hamdeen Sabbahi— have been consistently asked how they plan to deal with the problem, which was a major issue driving the opposition of Mohammed Morsi prior to his overthrow. Sisi has suggested a national program to replace regular light bulbs with high-efficiency bulbs to reduce consumption; while Sabbahi has called for exploration of solar energy.

Egypt is struggling with diminishing revenues and a growing need to pay for energy subsidies, estimated to comprise one fifth of the nation’s budget. Most of Egypt’s major gas fields are being depleted, and new fields won’t begin to produce for years, particularly as oil and gas companies are reluctant to invest due to the past three years of instability and economic crisis; the government currently owes at least $4.5 billion to international oil and gas companies. Further, electricity consumption increases at a rate of seven percent per year because of a combination of energy-heavy industries, steady population growth and increasing technology use.

Iran

7 May: A huge explosion has occurred near a nuclear facility in the northern Iranian city of Qazvin. The explosion was said to have taken place in a storage facility near a reportedly secret nuclear enrichment plant in Abyek. The Iranian government said no casualties were reported, however Iranian opposition says scores of people have been killed. At least 50 people were injured, and a fire has swept through the city. Fire-fighters are seeking to prevent the fire from spreading to a nearby car oil storage facility. The Iranian army has closed off much of the city. Authorities are uncertain whether the explosion was targeted. Opposition members have said that Iran’s nuclear facilities have been repeatedly targeted by Israel and the West. A Western intelligence source said, “There could be a small facility in the [Qazvin] area, but it is not regarded as major.”

Jordan

7 May: Jordanian military clashed with at least 10 militants along the Syria border, marking the second high-profile incident in the border region in less than a month. Jordanian border guard traded fire with an unidentified group of individuals as they attempted to illegally cross into Jordan from Syria. Two gunmen were injured in the clashes. Sources suggest that the gunmen were Jordanian citizens returning to the country after fighting alongside Islamist militants in southern Syria. They were reportedly returning to seek medical attention for wounds sustained while fighting alongside Al Qaeda-linked Al Nusra Front.

In late April, the Jordanian air force targeted a convoy of unidentified armoured vehicles attempting to cross into Jordan after they failed to heed a series of warning shots. Jordan has conducted a security clampdown on the nation’s 370 kilometre shared border; security forces have arrested over 50 Jordanian and alleged foreign jihadists over the past two weeks. More than 2,200 Jordanians are currently fighting alongside Islamist militias in Syria, predominantly serving under Al Nusra or Al Qaeda affiliate the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

Lebanon

7 May: The UN agency for Palestinian refugees said Lebanon is denying entry to Palestinians fleeing the war in neighbouring Syria, despite its insistence there was “no decision” to keep them out. “UNRWA has been monitoring the situation at the crossing point at Masnaa between Lebanon and Syria and can report that no Palestine refugees from Syria have been allowed into Lebanon today and that some families trying to cross have been refused entry.” said UNRWA spokesman Chris Gunness, adding that they have received assurances from Lebanese authorities that these restrictions are temporary. On Tuesday, Lebanese security chiefs agreed “there is absolutely no decision to bar them from entry, and the border is open to them.”

The statement came after the UN and Human Rights Watch expressed concern over “increased restrictions” on fleeing Palestinians entering Lebanon. While Lebanon has not signed the international refugee convention, the nation has generally kept its border open to people fleeing the conflict in Syria despite the scale of the influx. Lebanon currently hosts over one million refugees from Syria, more than any other country. The nation has the highest refugee population per capita in the world; among their number are 52,000 Palestinians.

Rights activists say Palestinians in Syria have been targeted by both sides in the conflict, making them one of the country’s more vulnerable groups. The Yarmuk district in south Damascus, the most populous Palestinian district, has been under blockade by the army since last year. Civilians in the area are trapped and receive very limited supplies of food and medicines, which are organised by UNRWA and other agencies. Turkey and Jordan, which also host large numbers of refugees from Syria, have barred entry to Palestinians.

Libya

4 May: The Libyan Congress has appointed, and then rejected a new interim prime minister, hours after he was sworn in. Ahmed Matiq thought he had secured a majority support of 121 deputies after several rounds of voting in Congress; however the process was chaotic, causing Congressional chairman Ezzedine Al-Amawi to later declare the vote illegal because voting continued after he had declared the voting session to be over. Al-Amawi asked former Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thani, who resigned in April following a gun attack on his family, to continue as caretaker, Al-Thani has agreed to comply with the request.

The vote was originally scheduled to take place on Tuesday, but it was interrupted when gunmen stormed the General National Congress. Elections for a new parliament that will replace the General National Congress are expected later this year.

Oman

7 May: A cap or an outright ban may be placed on recruiting expatriate workers from nationalities deemed to have “negative records”, according to a proposal by Oman Municipal Council members. Elected officials in Muscat governorate have advocated capping the number of expats of certain nationalities in recruitment. Some of the council members have suggested that visas “for certain nationalities, which have negative records”, should be stopped. According to official figures, there are 597,769 Indians, 510,470 Bangladeshis, 222,355 Pakistanis, 43,201 Ethiopians, 31,511 Indonesians, 29,426 Filipinos, 23,021 Egyptians, 12,867 Nepalese and 12,557 Sri Lankans in Oman.

Saudi Arabia

7 May: A Saudi Arabian has sentenced Raif Badawi, the editor of an internet forum he founded to discuss the role of religion in the country, to 10 years in jail and 1,000 lashes. Badawi, who started the Free Saudi Liberals website, was originally sentenced to seven years in prison and 600 lashes in July last year, but an appeals court overturned the sentence and ordered a retrial. He was also fined 1m riyals (£160,000). The website, which included articles that were critical of senior religious figures such as Saudi Arabia’s grand mufti, has been closed since his first trial. Badawi’s defence lawyers called the sentence too harsh; however the prosecutor had demanded a harsher penalty, demanding that he be tried for apostasy, which carries a death penalty in the nation. The apostasy charges were dismissed; the ruling is subject to appeal.

In a separate ruling, the court also convicted the administrator of a website on charges of supporting internet forums hostile to the state and which promoted demonstrations. The administrator was sentenced to six years in jail and a 50,000 riyal (£7,860) fine.

Syria

8 May:  Rebel fighters are believed to have detonated a bomb in a tunnel beneath the Carlton Citadel Hotel, near Aleppo’s medieval citadel and souk. The explosion destroyed the hotel and several other buildings. The Carlton Citadel is situated inside a 150-year-old building that faces the entrance of the 13th-Century citadel, which, along with the rest of the Old City is a UNESCO World Heritage Site. It was reportedly being used by government forces. Preliminary reports state the hotel had suffered “huge damage”, but did not reveal any casualties. Opposition activists say that government troops were based there and that a number had been killed. Other sources state that a number of security forces personnel and militiamen loyal to President Bashar al-Assad were believed to have been killed.

Syria’s state news agency reported that “terrorists” had blown up tunnels they had dug underneath archaeological sites in the Old City. A statement from the Islamic Front said its fighters had “levelled the Carlton Hotel barracks in Old Aleppo and a number of buildings near it, killing 50 soldiers”.

Tunisia

7 May: Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki has offered amnesty for Islamist fighters have not committed any acts of murder, saying the “door of hope and repentance is open.” The offer came during his visit to Mount Chaambi, where extremists have been fighting security forces near Tunisia’s border with Algeria. The offer of amnesty is similar to one conducted by Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s in 2005. Algeria’s National Reconciliation Charter lured thousands of insurgents home, although some rejoined their groups later. In addressing the militant groups, Marzouki said, “You are fighting an imaginary enemy” and death won’t lead to martyrdom. The offer applies only to those who haven’t killed. For over a year, security forces have tracked extremists in the Mount Chaambi area. Over a dozen soldiers have been killed in clashes.

Yemen

8 May: Yemen’s main oil export pipeline has been bombed, halting crude flows. Other gunmen have attacked electricity lines, causing a power outage in most of the country’s northern cities. No group has claimed responsibility but Yemeni tribesmen often attack oil pipelines and power lines. Al-Qaida-linked militants have also carried out such attacks. This latest round of attacks coincided with an offensive by Yemeni government forces to capture of the militants’ main stronghold in Yemen’s southern region. The pipeline, which carries crude from Maarib fields in central Yemen to the Red Sea, was bombed twice in less than 12 hours on Tuesday. In a separate event, gunmen forced the closure of the Maarib gas-fired power plant after twice attacking its power transmission lines on Wednesday. It was the third attack on electricity lines in less than 48 hours.

MENA Update

Algeria

22 March- In a rare event, nearly 5,000 supporters of Algerian opposition parties have rallied to call for a boycott of next month’s election, and to protest President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s run for another term after 15 years in power. Bouteflika, 77, suffered a stroke last year; opponents believe that his condition has left him unfit to govern for another term. Finally, protestors called for reforms to the Algerian political system, which they view as corrupt.

Six additional candidates have begun campaigning in the run-up to the presidential elections, however, Bouteflika has the support of the powerful ruling National Liberation Front (FLN), army factions and business elites. It is believed that despite his absence from the public in the past year, Bouteflika is almost assured victory.

Further assuring victory are the divisions among the nation. Rival Islamist and secular party supporters chanted slogans opposing one another during the rally, a reminder of the splits between the RCD and the MSP Islamist party, who have been adversaries for years.

Since 2001, public protests have been banned in Algeria. The nation was under a state of emergency for nearly 20 years before it was lifted last month. However, the government still bans any event that is “likely to disturb public order and tranquility”. During the Arab Spring of 2011, Algeria remained relatively stable as nations around them experienced tumultuous uprisings, however there is now a growing anger at Bouteflika’s decision to seek a fourth term.  Human Rights Watch has warned that Algerian authorities were deploying large numbers of police and arresting protesters ahead of the elections.

Bahrain

24 March- In the capital, Manama, Bahraini security forces reportedly fired tear gas at funeral goers in a Shia mosque. The attack follows protests that took place near the capital on Friday. During the protest, thousands of mostly Shia Bahrainis, led by Al-Wefaq party, shut down the Budaiya Highway, a main thoroughfare between the surrounding Shia villages and the capital. Protesters clashed with police, who responded with tear gas and petrol bombs.

A statement released by the Bahraini government announced that it will launch an investigation “into what has been circulating in some newspapers and mass media about a Ministry of Interior’s vehicle that fired a tear gas bomb near a religious building.” The statement added that legal measures will be taken against the violators should they are held accountable.

The event marks the latest attempt by the Bahraini regime to crack down on dissent stemming from the 2011 uprising against King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifah. The protesters are still calling for an end to sectarian discrimination toward the majority Shia population at the hands of the minority Sunni ruling party. The Shia majority maintains they have been marginalized in employment and housing, and excluded from the Sunni dominated political system.

Opposition leaders have called for lawmaking to be the responsibility of Parliament rather than the monarchy. However a political solution has yet to be reached.

Egypt

24 March- After two court sessions, Egyptian courts have sentenced 529 supporters of ousted Islamist President Mohammed Morsi to death. They defendants were accused of killing a senior police officer and attempting to murder two others, as well as attacking public property, torching the Matay police station, seizing police weapons and disrupting public order. The men are reportedly members of the Muslim Brotherhood. Only 147 defendants were present for the sentencing. The remainder was tried in absentia. Sixteen defendants were acquitted. The final decision has been turned over to the grand Mufti for approval.

It is common for those tried in absentia to receive the harshest sentences, however this is the largest number of people convicted in one trial in Modern Egypt’s history. It is likely that the verdicts, or a large portion of them, will be overturned by appeal. The case was rife with irregularities. Most significantly, defense attorneys for the defendants were not allowed to argue for their clients. The trial judge had refused to allow them into the court room.

Members of the Muslim Brotherhood and other lawyers have called the action a display of the extent of politicization of the court system. Others have cited institutionalized contempt for the Muslim Brotherhood, who since November 2013, have been considered a terrorist group in Egypt.

Iran

25 March- Iran’s Interior Ministry has confirmed that one of five border guards abducted by terrorists and transferred to Pakistan last month has been killed. On February 6, five Iranian border guards were abducted by the Jaish-ul-Adl terrorist group in the Jakigour region of the Iranian province, which rests on the border with Pakistan. The men were later transferred to the Pakistani territory.

On Sunday, Jaish-ul-Adl terrorists tweeted that they had killed one of the abductees, Jamshid Danaeifar. Iran has declared that it holds the Pakistani government responsible for the lives of the Iranian hostages.

This is the latest action conducted by Jaish-ul-Adl. On October 25, 2013, the group killed 14 Iranian border guards and wounded six others on the border region in Sistan and Baluchestan Province.

In February 2013, Iran and Pakistan signed a bilateral security agreement requiring both countries to cooperate in combating organized crime, fighting terrorism and countering the activities that pose a threat to the national security of either country. Iran has repeatedly called on Pakistan to comply with the terms of the agreement.

Iraq

25 March- A series of attacks around the nation have left at least 46 people dead and 32 wounded on Monday and Tuesday. Iraq is experiencing resurgence in sectarian violence and terrorist attacks. According to UN figures, in 2013, 8,868 people have been killed, among them 7,818 civilians.

In Al Hawiya, 155 miles north of Baghdad, three members of the pro-government militia known as the Salvation Council were killed and two others were wounded when armed gunmen attacked one of the group’s checkpoints. North of Tikrit in Al Asryia, three police officers and a civilian were killed in an attack carried out by armed men on a police station. In Al Huyay Zone, also north of Tikrit, an Iraqi government official was murdered by armed men as he was driving a state-owned vehicle, and in a separate attack, a driver with the Civil Defense department in the city of Al Sharkat was killed.

Attacks in Mosul appeared to be the heaviest on Monday. An Iraqi army soldier was killed with silenced weapons on a public street. A car bomb killed one civilian and injured five others, and one police officer died and another was wounded in an attack on their patrol car near the university. Also, in Mosul, the head of planning for the Mosul police, Col. Faisal Ahmed, and another person were wounded when a roadside bomb exploded as they were driving by.

There does not appear to be respite to the ongoing violence in Iraq.

Kuwait

25 March- The 2014 Arab League summit will begin today in Bayan Palace in Kuwait, south of Kuwait City. Thirteen heads of Arab states will attend the summit, including Kuwait Amir, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Egyptian President Adly Mansour, and Qatar’s Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al- Thani. Other states have sent high-ranking delegations to the summit. The theme of summit is “Unity for a better Future.”

During the opening ceremony, Kuwaiti Amir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah urged for closer ties between Arab states: “This summit was held in difficult circumstances regionally and internationally. So it’s very important to stand united and coordinate our policy for the sake of regional prosperity and security,” he said.

At the top of the agenda are the Syrian crisis and Palestinian cause. Attendees of the summit hope to hammer out a solution to end Syria’s civil war. Significantly, Syria’s membership to the Arab League has been suspended since 2011; however Ahmad Al-Jarba, leader of the opposition group Syria National Council, was invited to address the summit. With regard to the Palestinian cause, the Amir said, “it’s been the major challenge in Arab region, we’ll continue to support the Palestinians.”

The summit will also address additional issues, including terrorism, economic cooperation, the Lebanese security situation, and Egypt’s political progress. The summit will conclude on Wednesday with the release of the Kuwait Declaration, relating to political, economic, social, and development issues in the Arab world.

Lebanon

23 March- Lebanese troops were deployed after a number of casualties were reported in a predominantly Sunni Muslim area in Beirut, following clashes among supporters and opponents of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The clashes come after over a week of factional violence in the northern Lebanon city of Tripoli. The fighting raged between members of the predominantly Sunni district of Bab al-Tabbaneh, which are anti Assad, and the Jabal Muhsin, which is populated mainly by Alawites, the heterodox sect of President Assad. The battle left 25 dead. Cars and buildings in Beirut were left riddled with bullet holes. The war in Syria has spread into parts of Lebanon and exacerbated tensions between the two districts in the northern port city.

Libya

24 March- Al-Sadik al-Sour, head investigator for Libya’s prosecutor general, has announced that the crew of the renegade oil tanker, the Morning Glory, has been released and will be deported

Al- Sour did not give the nationality of the 21 crew members, but did state that they were referred border police Monday to send them out of the country. Three eastern Libya militia members who were aboard the vessel will be detained for 14 days to be interrogated by prosecutors.

Witnesses in the investigation have revealed that that the crew members were working at gunpoint. The ship remains in Tripoli and is due to be unloaded in the port of Zawiya refinery, 40 kilometers (25 miles) west of Tripoli. It was originally North Korean-flagged, but North Korean officials say they have cancelled its registration.

The Morning Glory was captured by U.S. Navy SEALs last week in the eastern Mediterranean and handed over to the Libyan navy, which escorted the tanker to Tripoli. The operation brought an end to an attempt by a militia from eastern Libya to sell the crude in defiance of the central government in Tripoli.

Morocco

25 March- Moroccan Authorities have deported a group of Syrian citizens who had tried to reach the Moroccan territory via Algeria. The 21-person group, appearing to be a large family consisting of men, women, and children, had fled from Algeria to the Moroccan city of Saidia on the Moroccan-Algerian border. They were apprehended and taken to the Saaidia police station, where they remained for 8 days before being transported to Mohammed V Airport in Casablanca.

The group had requested asylum in Morocco and objected to being deported. Moroccan authorities denied their request. The deportation took place today on Monday despite appeals by human rights associations. The Syrians were promised that they would be deported to Lebanon, but they expressed concern that they would be taken to Turkey instead. The family patriarch, Akil Kassim said in an interview that he refused to take the plane to Turkey, defending his right to stay in Morocco.

Qatar

25 March- Many Arab nations will likely use an Arab summit this week to try to pressure Qatar to stop supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and other opposition movements throughout the region. Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who have labeled the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization, will take the lead in attempting to isolate Qatar by calling for a collective Arab approach to terror. Both nations, as well as Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have withdrawn their ambassadors from Qatar.

The Arab leaders also want Qatar to stop supporting Shiite rebels in Yemen, and to ensure that Qatari arms shipments to Syrian rebels do not wind up in the hands of terrorists. Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, said, “There will be a breakthrough only if that nation changed [sic] the policies that caused the crisis in the first place.”

Qatari leaders insist they will push ahead with their own policies. Qatari Foreign Minister Khalid bin Mohammed al-Attiyah has said his country will “follow a path of its own” and that the independence of its “foreign policy is simply non-negotiable.” Recently, Qatar has attempted to spearhead efforts to resolve the Syrian crisis and mediated in some of Sudan’s internal conflicts.

The need for a collective Arab approach to terror will figure prominently in an address at the summit’s opening session Tuesday by Egyptian Interim President Adly Mansour, where he restate a six-point plan of action against terror announced this month by Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy. The points, designed to embarrass Qatar, include a ban on providing a safe haven for terrorists or aiding them in any way, assisting investigations into terrorist attacks, and extraditing wanted militants.

Syria

25 March- Clashes between Syrian rebels and forces loyal to President Assad have spread to a coastal area near the Turkish border. Opposition fighters are engaged in a campaign to gain access to the sea through the seaside tourist village of Samra, on the Syria-Turkey border. The access would give rebels an outlet to the Mediterranean for the first time since the Syrian conflict began, and would follow the rebel capture of the area’s predominantly Armenian Christian town and border crossing of Kassab on Sunday.

The seizure of the border crossing severed one of the Assad government’s last links to the Turkish border. The move came after Syrian troops captured several towns near the border with Lebanon in an effort to sever rebel supply lines across the porous Lebanese frontier. Since Monday, more than 80 wounded Syrians had been brought across the border into Turkey for treatment and nine of them died.

On Friday, rebels launched their offensive in the Alawite stronghold of the Latakia province. The rebels in the region are mainly from hard-line Sunni groups, including the al-Qaida-linked Nusra Front, who view the Alawites as heretics. However in an effort to show no harm to local Christians, an activist posted a video from inside a church in Kassab to show that it was left untouched.

Syria’s conflict has killed more than 140,000 people, displaced at least a quarter of its pre-war population of 23 million and triggered a humanitarian crisis across the region.

Yemen

24 March- A group of suspected al-Qaeda militants attacked a security checkpoint in southeastern Yemen, killing 22 troops and left only one survivor, who pretended he was dead.

The surprise attack occurred near the town of al-Rayda, in Yemen’s Hadramawt province. The group first sent in a suicide car bomb, then the attackers drove into the checkpoint in vehicles carrying what appeared to be stolen military license plates. The militants gunned down members of the Central Security Forces while asleep in their quarters; anonymous sources said the attackers also set fire to an armored vehicle and another car near the checkpoint. The lone survivor pretended he was dead as he was drenched in blood. The gunmen used heavy machine guns and fled the scene of the attack.

Yemen’s al-Qaida branch, also known as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), is considered to be the terror group’s most dangerous offshoot. The group increased its presence in southern Yemen after the country’s 2011 uprising.

Yemen’s newly-appointed Interior Minister, Major General Abdou Hussein el-Terb, suspended three senior security officers pending investigation in the attack, including Brigadier General Fahmi Mahrous, who was in charge of security in Hadramawt; Colonel Abdel-Wahab al-Waili commander of the CSF, and Major Youssef Baras, commander of the attacked checkpoint.

Across Yemen, and especially in the volatile Hadramawt, the government has struggled to eradicate the presence of al-Qaeda from territory they captured during the political turmoil.

MENA Security Update

Algeria

Retired General calls on Bouteflika to Step Down

12 February: Retired senior Algerian General Hocine Benhadid has called on President Abdulaziz Bouteflika to step down “with dignity” rather than running for a fourth term in the upcoming Algerian elections in April. In Benhadid’s interview, he claims to speak on behalf of others in the armed forces. He says the country’s stability cannot be guaranteed by someone who was “sick” and the “hostage of his entourage.” Bouteflika has been in power since 1999. In April 2013, he suffered a mini-stroke, and was flown to Paris for treatment, remaining there for three months. Bouteflika has not yet said if he is healthy enough to run for re-election.

Benhadid has also singled out for criticism Bouteflika’s brother Said, the “main actor” in the presidential clan, as well as Army Chief Ahmed Gaid Salah, saying “The chief of staff has no credibility, and no one is fond of him.”

Benhadid’s statements show an increasing power struggle between Bouteflika supporters and the army, which is likely to play out in the elections.

Egypt

Morsi: Protests are useless; Sisi could face a coup

12 February: In comments to his lawyer, former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi has called the weekly protests supporting him ‘useless’. The snippet was the third released from a 40 minute recording of a Morsi speaking to his lawyers during a court appearance in February. The matter of protests arises when Morsi asks his lawyer of news from the outside world. His lawyer, Selim el Awa, says that there are daily street protests by supporters, which routinely end in clashes. El Awa adds, “People must sit down, talk and reach a solution,” he says. “Without reaching a solution, Dr Mohamed, there’s no point,” to which Morsi agrees, adding the protests are “useless for both sides”.

On the streets of Egypt, attrition in protests has taken place as demonstrators consider the utility of regular protests, particularly as they invariably end in clashes with security forces. Although not intended for publicity, the comments from Morsi mark the first time it has been questioned from an authority figure from within the Muslim Brotherhood.

Constant clashes and increasing violence has left thousands dead, and spurred bombings and unprecedented violence by radical militant groups, particularly in the Sinai Peninsula and in Cairo. The Muslim Brotherhood has since been designated as a terrorist organisation by Egyptian authorities. Last week, interim president Adly Mansour, told a state newspaper last week that there was no prospect of political reconciliation between the Brotherhood and Egypt’s military leaders.

Morsi also asked why Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the military leader responsible for removing him from office, has been promoted to the rank of field marshal. He asks, “Is it so there will be no one more senior than [Field Marshal Abdel Fattah el Sisi] when he becomes president?”

It is expected that al-Sisi will soon announce his bid for presidency in the upcoming election, and further expected that he would win by a large margin. In the recordings, Morsi shows surprise that that anyone would want to take the reins of such a troubled country, and warns that “whoever leads a coup must face a coup.”

Iran

Iran Tests New Missiles

11 February: The Iranian Defence Ministry has announced the successful test-firing of new missiles, including one designed to destroy “all types of enemy military equipment.” The new missiles include a laser-guided surface-to-surface and air-to-surface missile. Iran has also developed a long-range ballistic missile that can carry multiple warheads and can evade enemies’ anti-missile defence systems, with the “the capability of destroying massive targets and destroying multiple targets.”

Pentagon spokesman Admiral John Kirby has called the missile program “a dangerous threat to region.” A UN Security Council Resolution has prohibited Iran from activities related to developing ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons.

The tests come as reports are released that Iranian warships are en route toward U.S. maritime borders. The move is supposedly a response to the increase of United States naval presence in the Persian Gulf, however US military officials say there is no “operational information to support the claim.”

Iraq

300,000 Displaced from Violence in Anbar Province

The UN has announced that as many as 300,000 people have been displaced by fighting between Sunni militants and security forces in the Anbar province of Iraq. The number marks the highest displacement in the region since the sectarian clashes between 2006 and 2008.

In December, groups of militants led by Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS or ISIL) took over large parts of Fallujah and Ramadi, leaving Iraqi troops and pro-government supporters struggling to regain control. The roads leading into and out of these cities are also part of the battleground, as the army tries to secure supply routes and cut off militant groups. Security forces have slowly regained areas of Ramadi, but they have not yet launched an offensive to recapture Fallujah for fear of a repeat of the battles similar to those against US troops in 2004. On Saturday, Anbar Governor Ahmed al-Dulaimi gave the militants a week to surrender, but emphasised that officials would not negotiate with ISIS.

Lebanon

New App Lets Citizens Tweet After Bombings

12 February: An innovator in Lebanon has developed a new smartphone app: with one tap, citizens can automatically tweet, “I am still alive! #Lebanon #Latestbombing.” The app’s creator intended to showcase the deteriorating security in Lebanon with an “ironic solution” (the website says, “Every time there is an explosion, we have to spend a lot of time contacting our loved ones…Not anymore!”) However, the irony was lost as over 4,000 users have downloaded the tool since its launch in January. Further, citizens from other war-torn areas have contacted the creator to request their own localised versions.

Libya

Libyans Terrified as Government Unable to Stop Killings

12 February: Killings have been on the rise in Libya due to a combination of “score-settling”, extremist shootings, and rival killings by military wings, and gangs killing for profit.

Since the weekend, several killings have been reported. On 10 February, former policemen Montasser Anwar Bennaser was the latest in a string of targeted assassinations. A bomb under his car was detonated shortly after he dropped off his son at school in Derna. A day earlier, Saiqa Special Forces member Alaa Mohammad Ali’s corpse was found tied to a rock at Karsa beach. On Saturday, Former Libyan Attorney-General and Supreme Court Chancellor Abdul Aziz al-Hassadi was shot dead in the Derna city centre. On Friday, an imam, Cheikh Atef Madouli, was killed after prayers at al-Ansari mosque, in Benghazi’s Hadaiq district. There have also been a series of abductions that remain unresolved.

Libyan citizens extremely concerned, wondering how abductions and killings seem to occur with no witnesses, particularly when they occur in crowded areas and during daylight hours.

Sudan

Sudanese, Egyptian Authorities Involved in Torture of Eritrean Refugees

12 February: A report released by Human Rights Watch (HRW) states that in the past 10 years, authorities in Sudan colluded with human traffickers in the kidnap and torture of hundreds of Eritrean refugees.

The report includes testimony from dozens of refugees who said that Sudanese and Egyptian security officers often facilitated their abuse rather than arresting the traffickers.

Earlier reports have shown that Eritrean refugees are regularly brutalised, having faced atrocities such as mutilation, burning, beatings and sexual assault. The threat and conduct of torture is devised to extort large ransoms from the victims’ families. The victims have described the pattern of being intercepted inside the eastern Sudanese border by police. The police arbitrarily detain them, and then hand them to traffickers. Many of those abducted report being abused for weeks or months in Kassala, or transferred to Arish, in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, where they receive much the same treatment.

The author of the HRW report, Gerry Simpson, says that police and soldiers in Sudan and Egypt who help traffickers kidnap and torture refugees have nothing to fear. He adds that some police in eastern Sudan are so emboldened that they hand refugees over to traffickers in police stations.

Trafficking and abuse is inadequately investigated or prosecuted in both nations, which constitutes a breach of obligations under national and international anti-trafficking laws, international human rights law and national criminal law. Simpson adds, “The time has long passed for Egypt and Sudan to stop burying their heads in the sand and take meaningful action to end these appalling abuses.”

Up until December 2013, Egypt had prosecuted just one person with trafficking offences, while Sudan had launched 14 prosecutions of traffickers and four of police officers in connection with trafficking and torture.

Syria

ISIL Withdraws from Deir al-Zor Province

10 February: al Qaeda’s affiliate, al-Nusra front has been battling for days against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) for control of towns and oilfields Deir al-Zor province. There have been a series of car bombs and attacks in the region. However, the ISIL fighters have chosen to withdraw from the area.  A statement on Twitter said that ISIL had withdrawn to prevent further bloodshed. They have moved to the Hassaka and Raqqa provinces, the latter of which is a stronghold of ISIL.

Last month, several rebel groups joined forces and launched a campaign to push ISIL forces out of opposition-held regions in northern and eastern Syria. The anti ISIL groups include secular and religious members, who normally have territorial and ideological diputes. However ISIL, a group that has attracted non-Syrians to the region, has alienated the civilian populations in areas it controls by imposing harsh rulings (including beheadings) against what it perceives as dissent

Pro-opposition group, The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said the Deir al-Zor province was now in the hands of al-Nusra and 10 other rebel groups. ISIL had asked for mediation which was rejected by Nusra.

ISIL’s goal is to set up an Islamic emirate in territories within Iraq and Syria. Their goals clash with other Syrian rebel forces, who aim to overthrow Assad and then determine a ruling system for Syria.

Yemen

Yemen Divided into Six States

10 February: Final approval has been given for Yemen to become a federation of six regions as part of its political transition. The new federal structure, the result of the national dialogue, will be put into a constitution will be put to a referendum. The division into states is aimed at eliminating acrimonious and sometimes violent divides between North and South Yemenis. Delegates at the National Dialogue Conference also agreed to reverse the overt political and economic marginalisation against southern Yemenis that had been entrenched since the two regions were unified in 1994.

If passed in referendum, the six regions would be: in the south, Aden and Hadramawt; in the north  Saba, Janad, Azal and Tahama. Sanaa, the capital, would become “a federal city not subject to any regional authority” and the constitution would “guarantee its neutrality.” Aden, a major port city, would be given special status, including “independent legislative and executive powers”.

Many politicians from Southern Yemen have rejected the six-state idea. Some call it a “coup against what had been agreed at the dialogue.” They had urged for a two-state federation, feeling that the North has greater footing because they hold four of the six states. However, the south has access to a larger share of country’s oil resources