Category Archives: Egypt

Sinai Liberation Day?

25 April marked the 33^rd annual Sinai Liberation day in Egypt, celebrating the return of the peninsula to the Egyptians in 1982. During a ceremony, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi saluted the residents of the region, and the sacrifices of the armed forces in the Sinai Peninsula. He announced the government’s new plans for development in Sinai, including the development of new cities, in particular, New Rafah and New Ismailia. Finally, the president expressed hope that these projects would create jobs for youths in the region.

Despite the positive message delivered by Sisi, the story in Sinai has been a troubled one in recent years. Since 2013, armed forces have struggled to maintain security in the region. Attacks against security forces in North Sinai have spiked to almost daily levels since the ouster of Islamist former President Mohamed Morsi in 2013. Egypt’s army, heavily reinforced in the region, has regularly declared arrests, confiscation, and deaths of militants in an effort to quell the operations in the region. In November, the most notorious militant group in the region, Ansar Beit al Maqdis, declared allegiance to Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

The new cities planned by the Egyptian government are the result of forced relocation of residents who live on the border with Gaza. A week earlier, Egypt’s Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahlab issued a ordering the isolation and evacuation of more areas surrounding Rafah in North Sinai. This expands the current buffer zone that was implemented by Egyptian security forces on the border with Gaza. Initially the evacuation was to clear all homes within 500 metres of the border, for fear that homes in the immediate vicinity would be used to cover underground tunnels which could smuggle individuals or contraband into the country. Hundreds of tunnels have bene flooded and destroyed. Currently, the border clearance is expanded to a one-kilometre-wide and 14-kilometre-long buffer zone on the eastern border of North Sinai as part of its fight against militants in the peninsula. The announcements of the buffer zone in recent months have caused the evacuation of hundreds of people, and the demolition of hundreds of houses. Mahlab’s announcement included a promise that evacuees would receive alternative housing and reparations, and a warning that state would confiscate the property of anyone who resisted the evacuation. The evacuations, with little notice, have raised the ire of local residents and caused human rights organisations to speak out against Sisi’s policies.

Meanwhile, on Saturday Egypt extended a state of emergency imposed on parts of northern Sinai. The initial state of emergency was put in place late last year after Islamist militants stepped up attacks in the peninsula bordering Israel, Gaza and the Suez Canal. In October, 33 security personnel were killed in an attack at a checkpoint in northern Sinai, one of the largest attacks to occur in the region. The attack was claimed by Ansar Beit al Maqdis, who seeks to topple Sisi’s government, but largely focuses their attacks on police and security forces in North Sinai. The state of emergency was extended for another three months in January. The current extension is to last for three months, and will impact Rafah, al-Arish, Sheik Zuweid and surrounding areas. It also extends a night-time curfew in place in the same areas.

In the midst of a growing battle against militants in Sinai and throughout the country, last month the US announced that it would lift the ban of the supply of military equipment to Egypt. The ban was put in place when Morsi was overthrown in 2011. The White House said it would release the equipment and “modernise” the way it provided military aid to Egypt, including a greater focus on counterterrorism, border security, maritime security and Sinai security. President Obama directed the release of 12 Lockheed Martin F-16 aircraft, 20 Boeing Harpoon missiles, and up to 125 M1A1 Abrams tank kits made by General Dynamics. With an influx of weapons, the mass relocation of residents, and intensified battles against militants in the region, Egypt hopes to see a second liberation in Sinai.

Why is it taking so long to defeat ISIS?

In June 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) has metastasised into one of the most horrific fighting groups of this century. The group has become renowned for rampant murder, the pillaging of villages and cities, widely publicised beheadings, the theft of oil and artefacts, and more recently of human organs.

Since they appeared on the world stage, ISIS has come to remind many of a combination of the worst villains Hollywood has ever imagined. More terrifying, the group’s combination of savvy marketing and recruiting, has resulted in numerous would-be fighters attempting to travel to ISIS strongholds to join the group.

The Debate: What does ISIS want?

ISIS seeks to form a caliphate that extends to the Mediterranean Sea. Their ideology has sparked numerous debates on whether they are a political group with a religious foundation, or a religious groups with a political foundation.

There is no denying that ISIS perceives themselves as an Islamic group; it’s in their name. However ISIS has modified their interpretation to create their own version of Islam. Their brand of Islam is a combination of fundamentalism similar to Wahabism in Saudi Arabia, but it is coupled with “violent Salafism” which deviated from evangelical Salafism in the 1960s and 70s. Further, the group has enacted a series of its own rulings or “fatwas” that are often in direct contradiction to Islam (for example, the burning of humans is strictly forbidden in ever interpretation of Islam—except for that which is held by ISIS).

ISIS has based its ideology on an apocalyptic message. Their magazine, Dabiq refers to a city in Syria that is said to be a site of great fighting during Armageddon (Malahim). The magazine states, “One of the greatest battles between the Muslims and the crusaders will take place near Dabiq.” However the mention of this end-times battle is not found in the Qur’an. It is believed to be in one of the “lesser” Hadiths. This is an important point: in Islam, the Hadith is a collection of stories recounted of the prophet Muhammad. Each Hadith, over time, has been studied carefully to determine whether it can be verified and whether it is consistent with the Prophet’s teachings. Greater Hadiths are those which have extensive historical and scholarly evidence to support them. Lesser Hadiths have limited evidence to support them.

Despite their religious ideology, at the core of ISIS beliefs is an equal mix of political ideology. ISIS conducts itself as a state; collecting taxes and implementing its own version of judicial law and social controls. It grew out of region wide crisis in Iraq and flourished in the aftermath of the Iraq War. Here too, their political ideology has been the source of great debate. Some argue that US intervention was responsible for the creation of ISIS; others argue that former Iraqi President Nouri al Maliki institutionalised sectarian division in the nation, instigating a violent response among militant Sunni groups which already existed in the nation. The political goal of ISIS is to restore Sunni Islam to a place of (at least) equality, and their political message initially gained the support of non-militant Sunni Muslims who were marginalised by the nation’s government. In addition, ISIS often calls for the erasure of the Sykes-Picot lines which, in 1916, divided the Arab provinces of the Ottoman Empire outside the Arabian Peninsula into areas of British and French control or influence.

The question of what ISIS really wants has made it difficult to know how to deal with them. ISIS governs itself as an extreme Islamic caliphate, organises like a modern state, and fights like a guerrilla insurgency.

Impact of Global Politics

ISIS is believed to have amassed over 200,000 fighters, with potential members coming from as many as 90 nations. As stated earlier, ISIS has developed a savvy social media presence, and nations are stopping people on a near daily basis from travelling to the region.

Despite a US led coalition of forty nations that have agreed to fight ISIS, the battle against the terrorist group has become. However since the initiation of the coalition in August 2014, ISIS has continued to grow.

In part, ISIS has thrived because of the complexity of international politics. The main fighting forces on the ground are the Kurdish Peshmerga, who belong to a political movement known as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The PKK has sought an autonomous Kurdish state in parts of Syria, Iraq, Iran and Turkey. The conflict between the PKK and the Turkish government reached its zenith in 2005 when the PKK conducted a series of bombings, leading them to become a designated terrorist group in Turkey, the United States, NATO, and the European Union. The EU Court removed its status as terrorist organisation in April 2008. However, the designation by the US and Turkey has brought with it problems of arming the PKK; the only group that has successfully battled ISIS on the ground.

To add to the complexity, another nation that has a vested interest in defeating ISIS is Iran, which is on the US “enemies” list. As such, Iran, with over 500,000 active troops, is not a member of the coalition. Iran has been facing heavy sanctions that have been put in place by the west; the US has taken the lead in negotiating nuclear reduction in Iran. The US believes that Iran could use nuclear infrastructure to build weapons which could be a direct threat to Israel. Iran maintains that the facilities are part of their energy infrastructure.

In Iraq, the Iraqi military fell apart with alarming speed when ISIS first came onto the scene. It has been reported that when ISIS militants sought to overtake a region, the generals left first, leaving the soldiers uncertain of what to do; and so they left as well. Under Maliki, it is believed that the Sunni members of the army were unhappy to fight for a nation that had alienated them. With a new president in place, the 350,000 member army is currently being trained by Western forces in order to engage in battle against ISIS. However in the meanwhile, Shiite militias have been remobilised to fill the vacuum, however their presence has left Sunni Muslims in a precarious situation.

The Syrian army is believed by many to be the most likely to contain the ISIS threat. In early February, Syrian forces together with the Kurdish fighters repelled an ISIS advance in north-eastern Syria. However, Syrian troops have been divided between fighting in a protracted civil war and fighting ISIS forces. This has decreased their ability to focus on a single target.

Why are more Arab ground troops not involved?

ISIS has overtly stated that they seek to gain ground in Lebanon, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. In North Africa, ISIS has established a presence in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and along the Libyan coastline. In mid-February, Egyptian conducted airstrikes against ISIS positions in Derna, Libya, following the beheading of 21 Coptic Christian Egyptian nationals. Shortly after the airstrikes, Egyptian President Sisi called for a joint Arab military force to tackle extremist groups in the region, and called for a United Nations mandate for foreign intervention in Libya. Sisi’s call raises an important question: why have Arab nations —particularly those at greatest risk from ISIS— not sent in ground troops to fight ISIS?

In short, many Arab militaries have not acted as fighting forces for some time. For example the Egyptian army had not engaged in ground war since the three-day border war with Libya in 1977. Further, the Egyptian military has not been deployed to a foreign nation since the North Yemen civil war of the 1960s, where it was defeated. The story is similar for many militaries in the region. Another problem arises from the history of Arab cooperation in defence. Divisions along political lines (Turkey and the Kurds, for example), prevent full trust and therefore full cooperation. Western analysts espouse hope that the GCC Peninsula Shield, a 40,000-strong force made up of countries in the Persian Gulf, will be deployed to fight ISIS, however the group is designed to prevent political unrest in existing regimes. It is a force for suppression, not battle. The GCC Peninsula shield was most recently deployed to quell unrest in Bahrain in 2011. Their targets were unarmed, disorganised civilians. It is unlikely that they are prepared to engage in battle against armed, methodical militants.

This does not mean that the battle against ISIS cannot be won. However it will require renewed training of security forces, the updating of weaponry, and the combined efforts of both Middle Eastern and Western forces. The biggest advantage that ISIS has is the political divides that keep forces from uniting. As long as nations around the world debate whether to send forces, or to interfere on sovereign land, or base their involvement on political conditions, ISIS will continue to thrive.

US CENTCOM Vice Admiral refutes threats from ISIL to commercial shipping routes

US Central Command Vice admiral John Miller said last week that ISIL does not pose a significant threat to commercial shipping routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, in the Middle East.

Miller made the comments at a conference in Abu Dhabi, after an article by the Daily Mail suggested that ISIL militants are working with sea-faring human traffickers in the Mediterranean to engage in piracy similar to that which occurs off the coast of Somalia.

The Daily Mail quotes an Italian defence magazine, Rivista Italiana Difesa, which said, that Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) could “repeat the scenario that has dominated the maritime region between Somalia and [the Gulf of] Aden for the last ten years’. The article also warns that ISILcould send boats “crammed with migrants” for use in “kamikaze” missions in the Arabian Gulf and the Mediterranean, particularly off the coasts of Europe.

Miller emphasised that the international maritime presence in the region had minimised threats from ISIL. However, he acknowledged that the group still has the capability to conduct surprise operations. He states, “As dynamic as the region is today, what we have seen over the past years is the maritime atmosphere has been safe, the free flow of commerce has been stable and secure.”

Currently the greatest cause for concern, according to Miller, is the unrest in Yemen. The combination of political instability and the presence of the very active terrorist group al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) have created a “very dynamic situation.” Miller states that the instability in the country could “lead to instability in the strait of Bab el Mandab in the Gulf of Aden in the southern part of the Red Sea, all of which is cause for concern”.

Yet, Miller adds in regard to potential surprise from Islamic State, “An organisation like ISIL is capable of surprising us … so we want to work hard to eliminate that opportunity for surprise and we do that through a robust presence ‎in the maritime environment.”

The combined international maritime security forces have as many as 70 vessels on the water per day. The Suez Canal Company has also increased security measures, despite the unrest in Sinai that has on occasion targeted ships in the canal.

The Strait of Hormuz, linking the Arabian Gulf to the Indian Ocean is a key shipping route, accounting for around 20% of total oil shipments by sea alone in 2013, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Emerging groups threaten Egypt’s security

On 26 February, a wave of explosions throughout Giza was claimed by a lesser-known group called the Popular Resistance Movement (PRM). PRM does not appear to have links to extremist groups operating in North Sinai, nor do they appear to have any association with Cairo-based group Ajnad Misr. The group claims to have cells in Minya and elsewhere, but it is most active in Giza.

In an online statement, PRM signaled that the Thursday bombings were intended to sabotage a government-sponsored investment conference scheduled for mid-March. President Sisi is planning to use the conference to boost faltering economy.

The bombs targeted two telephone companies: Vodafone Egypt, a 45-percent Egyptian-owned subsidiary of the British telecommunications giant and Etisalat, which is based in the United Arab Emirates. PRM said they chose their targets “in response to Vodafone International’s announcement that it will participate in the conference to sell Egypt,” and “in response to the United Arab Emirates contribution to supporting the coup.”

Their statement continues: “The Popular Resistance warns that it has resumed its activities against the criminal forces, the killers of the honorable, the violators of sanctities, and the torturers of children.” The group has warned citizens to “avoid being present near police stations, in order to allow our heroes to deal with them.”

PRM claims to include a wide spectrum of Egyptians, including Islamists and liberals. Their first public communique was released on 14 August 2014, the anniversary of the Rabaa massacre. Excerpts of the statement, read by an anonymous young male, read as follows:

“It may raise eyebrows that our first communique is released on the first anniversary of the storming of the Rabaa and Al-Nahda sit-ins. To prevent our lousy media from jumping to all sorts of conclusions, we would like to say the following: this entity which we are launching today officially under the name of The Popular Resistance Movement – Egypt, is the fruit of several months of effort, prior to any anniversary that saw the start of our resistance against the despotic military rule in Egypt.”

“We shall not remain silent regarding the murder weapons they use to slit the throats of our people nor shall we remain indifferent regarding the hunger they have imposed on all of us while the murderers lavish in their palaces and castles hiding from us behind their guards.”

“Whoever from among the thugs stays inside his home, he is safe; whoever from among the military dogs stays in his palace, he is safe; and whoever attacks, let him then blame none but himself.”

“We shall seek to do the impossible until the demands of this generation are met. We shall pay willingly with our blood until we crush the lackeys of Israel. Retribution for the martyrs is our right, and we shall eventually attain it. So long as people seek their rights, their rights will not be lost.”

On 28 January 2015, days after the anniversary of the Egyptian uprising, the group announced that its members, “engaged the black-hearted killers in their dens of shame known as police stations where they take part in all known crimes against humanity,” read a statement from the group. That same day, a bomb detonated near a checkpoint in Qaliubeya, Greater Cairo, injuring seven security personnel. Bomb experts that day also dismantled an explosive device at a bus stop in Abdel Moneim Riyadh Square in Downtown Cairo. Outside of the capital, a bomb went off in Fayoum close to a police station and a hospital, causing one minor injury, and in Alexandria, a bomb detonated as militants were going to plant it.

In the January missive, Popular Resistance Movement promised more actions in the coming “revolutionary nights and days” until the overthrow of Abel Fattah al-Sisi.

Revolutionary Punishment

Chatter has emerged regarding another group calling themselves “Revolutionary Punishment.” Very little is known about the organization or its affiliations. On 31 January, the group reportedly declared the formation of an armed militia with 1,000 members throughout Egypt. This number has not been confirmed; however it is believed that the group does have some members across the nation.

Revolutionary Punishment has reportedly called for a new strategy of armed resistance against security forces. The group has allegedly said that peaceful protests are no longer effective against the regime, and called on supporters to combine armed operations with constant protests in order to achieve their target.

Egyptian state-owned newspapers report that ‘Revolutionary Punishment’ is believed to be affiliated with the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood. One report suggests that the group “had gathered all the information required to assassinate a number of police officers in Qena, Ismailia and other provinces.” This could not be verified.

The group reportedly claimed responsibility for an attack on a police patrol in Beni Suef on 25 January, wounding several officers. Reports also claim that the group clashed with police at a village ring road, killing two members of the Egyptian Special Forces.

Deterrence

Only one report has emerged from Egyptian state media of an Alexandria-based group called “Deterrence.” The report claims that 29 people were arrested on 9 February for creating an alleged terrorist cell affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. Prosecution has accused the group of carrying out 43 acts of sabotage and arson in Alexandria. The defendants range in age between 14 and 40; the majority are in their twenties.

While there is sufficient evidence to support the existence of PRM, the other two groups remain amorphous. It is known, however, is that bombings have increasingly targeted businesses and transportation systems since December. Attacks have targeted a bank branch and gas station linked to the Emirates, several Kentucky Fried Chicken franchises, and other locales. The incident so far has been similar, using homemade incendiary explosive devices or Molotov cocktails. Most have involved only small numbers of casualties, however it is unknown whether that is by design. Analysts are concerned that this shift represents a growing trend toward targeting civilian populations, something that well known terrorist organisations Ansar Beit al Maqdis and Ajnad Misr have thus far claimed to avoid.

Qatar Recalls Ambassador to Egypt amid New Row

19 February– The Qatari government has recalled its ambassador to Egypt, following a dispute over Egyptian air strikes on Islamic State targets in Libya. Days earlier, Egyptian and Libyan fighter jets conducted two waves of attacks in Derna, Libya, hours after ISIS militants released a video showing the beheading of 21 Coptic Christian Egyptians. The attacks targeted ISIS militant camps, training sites and weapons storage facilities.

Following the attacks, Qatari foreign ministry official, Saad bin Ali al-Muhannadi expressed concern Egyptian engagement during a meeting of the Arab League, warning against “unilateral military action in another member (state) in a way that could harm innocent civilians”. Qatar’s concern notwithstanding, the Arab League issued a statement that expressed the “complete understanding” of the strikes by the Egyptian air force. Further, the League issued its support of Cairo’s call for the UN to lift an arms embargo that is in place against the Libyan Army.

Here again, Qatar took an opposing view; Al-Muhannadi expressed concerns that arming the Libyan army could give leverage to one party before peace talks were concluded and a coalition government was formed.

The Qatari opinions angered the Egyptian envoy. Tareq Adel blasted the moves, saying it shows Qatar “supports terrorism.” The rift reignited a months-long row. Ties between Egypt and Qatar deteriorated when then-army chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi toppled Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi. Morsi’s political organisation, the Muslim Brotherhood, is backed by Qatar. The Muslim Brotherhood became a designated terrorist organisation in Egypt in 2013, and later in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Last year, all nations withdrew their ambassadors over Qatar’s support for the Brotherhood.

While the other nations returned their envoys to Qatar in November, the tenuous diplomatic thaw between Egypt and Qatar emerged only two months ago, during a reconciliation meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. In December, the Qatari-owned Al-Jazeera news network shut down its Egypt channel, quieting a major source of tension. Egypt has accused Al-Jazeera in general — and its Egypt affiliate, Al-Jazeera Mubasher Misr, in particular — of doing Doha’s bidding by serving as Islamists’ mouthpiece at a time of a ferocious crackdown on their ranks. The station denies any bias, saying it is simply covering Islamist protests. Tensions between the two nations increased over the arrest, trial and prison sentences for three journalists from Al-Jazeera’s English channel on terrorism-related charges for allegedly helping the Brotherhood. However in light of the diplomatic thaw, the cases have been re-examined and at least one of the journalists, Peter Greste, has been allowed to return to his native Australia.

During the Arab League meeting, the Gulf Cooperation Council sided with Qatar. In a statement issued by GCC head Abdullatif Al-Zayani, he states, that the Egyptian accusations against Qatar are baseless, distort the truth and ignore the sincere efforts Qatar has exerted with its GCC neighbours to combat terrorism and extremism on all its levels.” The GCC also expressed concerns that it did not want another internal rift that could impact diplomatic relations once more.

Sisi is eager to work with Qatar’s wealthy Gulf neighbours, who have provided financial and political backing. It is likely that Egypt will work quickly to diffuse tensions as the GCC has expressed its support of Qatar. Qatari Foreign Minister Khaled al-Attiya, said in an interview that Doha did not support the Muslim Brotherhood, adding that the rift that had divided Gulf Arab nations was history. He added there were “differences of opinion, which is healthy, and not disputes” between Gulf Arab countries.