Context: Why was Germany chosen as an attack location? Terrorism attacks are not new to Germany as the history of the country shows, during the Weimar Republic elected officials were beaten and murdered, and in the 1960s the Red Army Faction, a far-left military group,...
On November 24, 2024, Romania held its presidential elections, which resulted in no candidate securing an absolute majority, prompting a second round scheduled for December 8. However, on December 6, the Constitutional Court annulled the initial results because of Russian interference. Călin Georgescu, an independent...
Key Judgements The Netherlands is considering joining the European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA) The Dutch defence minister believes it is essential to increase capacity against further Russian aggression What is the European Long-Range Missile Strike Approach? France, Germany, Italy, and Poland launched the ELSA project in July...
It is likely that current Moldovan administration would win presidential election and EU referendum on 20 October. It is unlikely Russian interference would make significant change on the result of election. It is highly likely that Russia and pro-Russian movement would attempt to destabilize...
What is Russia’s shadow fleet and how big is it? According to the UK Government policy paper ‘The ‘Shadow Fleet’: A Call To Action’, Russia’s shadow fleet “comprises ships engaged in illegal operations for the purposes of circumventing sanctions, evading compliance with safety or environmental regulations,...
Key Judgments: It is highly likely that the increasing sanctions against Iran will result in it deepening its relationships with other hostile nations such as Russia and China, leading to an emerging economic and military axis that challenges Western interests. (High confidence). Over the short...
The Middle East's complex situation remains uncertain, with its origins profoundly rooted in the Palestinian conflict. Despite continuous diplomatic interventions and negotiations, the region has yet to achieve lasting peace. Ten months into the conflict, mediators continue to facilitate discussion and secure a ceasefire deal. The...
Key Judgments: It is highly likely that Iran is enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels (90%), significantly increasing the risk of military conflict with Israel. (High confidence) It is unlikely that ongoing diplomatic efforts to revive the JCPOA will succeed in the near term, given...
Ukraine invasion into Russia Key Judgement: It is highly likely that Ukrainian offensive would damage Russian war capability. It is likely that Ukraine offensive is to create breakthrough in Eastern Ukraine, in both strategic and political ground. It is realistically possible this would ultimately lead...
Two high-profile killings in Beirut and Tehran have highlighted Israel's military capability, with the potential to change Middle Eastern relations. The killings of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Faud Shukur has prompted strong reactions from regional players and could further escalate tensions in...