MS Risk Limited |

13 Mar Regional Spillover of the US-Israel War on Iran: Implications for MENA Security

Posted at 18:43h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements The US-Israeli campaign against Iran, launched on 28 February 2026, has triggered multi-front escalation across Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and the Red Sea corridor, fundamentally reshaping the MENA security environment. Iran’s proxy network has been operationalised for retaliatory strikes, but internal fractures and declining...

11 Mar Night Wolves mobilisation activity in Eastern Europe during February 2026

Posted at 22:00h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements The Night Wolves motorcycle club sustained symbolic and network-building activity across parts of Eastern Europe in February 2026, reinforcing pro-Kremlin historical narratives under a cultural and patriotic banner. Public-facing events remain framed as commemorative or charitable in nature, providing a socially acceptable platform...

28 Feb Munich Security Conference 2026 – European Rearmament and Deterrence Recalibration

Posted at 00:33h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements The 2026 Munich Security Conference signalled that the post-Cold War model of European security dependence is eroding, as allies prepare for a future in which a US security guarantee cannot be assumed to be stable or unconditional. Emerging consultations among France, the...

24 Feb The ‘Iron-clad’ Alliance – Philippines and US Expand Defence Commitment

Posted at 21:54h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements On Tuesday 17th February, a joint-statement from the US and Philippines pledged additional deployments of missile and unmanned systems in the Philippines. The announcement, made following the annual US-Philippines Strategic Dialogue in Manila, reinforces the Philippine’s capacity to leverage distributed deterrence. As the Philippines...

17 Feb Syria’s Northeastern Integration Agreement: Implications for MENA Security

Posted at 23:37h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements The 30 January agreement between Syria’s interim government and the Kurdish-led SDF marks the most significant territorial consolidation since Assad’s fall, with government forces deploying to al-Hasakah and Qamishli for the first time in over a decade. Implementation hinges on three contested issues...

10 Feb Russian Energy Leverage and Political Influence in the Western Balkans

Posted at 01:03h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements Russia continues to use energy dependency as a low-visibility influence mechanism across the Western Balkans, particularly in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Energy pricing incentives and long-term gas agreements provide Moscow with structural political leverage rather than immediate coercive power. Messaging around “energy...

03 Feb The Greenland Crisis

Posted at 00:38h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements U.S. pressure to take control over Greenland triggered a major NATO internal conflict, prompting Operation Arctic Endurance, a coordinated NATO military exercise deployment to Greenland to deter escalation and signal alliance resolve. Washington frames its Greenland strategy around the $175 billion Golden Dome...

26 Jan China-Philippines Territorial Dispute in the South China Sea

Posted at 20:26h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements Tensions continue to rise in the South China Sea as China and the Philippines remain entangled in a maritime dispute amid legal standoff. The turn of the new year saw Filipino Coast Guard assets facing off a Chinese research vessel off the coast of...

20 Jan Iran’s Mass Crackdown on Nationwide Protests: Regional Implications and Escalation Risks

Posted at 00:49h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements Iran's security forces have killed at least 2,500-3,400 protesters during a violent crackdown on nationwide demonstrations that began in late December 2025, representing one of the deadliest protest suppressions in modern Iranian history and potentially precipitating a broader regional crisis. The crisis has...

10 Jan Russian control and messaging within Orthodox identity in Moldova.

Posted at 01:00h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements Russian-linked Orthodox circles are being leveraged to disperse anti-European ideology within socially conservative areas. Religious legitimacy provides Russian-linked actors with a deniable influence mechanism Activity levels are directly correlated to key political events such as elections. Suggesting tolerance and potentially coordination from Russian-friendly...