Georgian elections: Authoritarian tendencies and geopolitical tensions

The recent parliamentary elections in Georgia highlight the ongoing geopolitical rivalry between Russia and the West. Despite clear evidence of widespread irregularities, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party won a 54% majority in the 26 October vote. This outcome has raised serious concerns in Western capitals that Georgia’s increasing alignment with Russia could undermine the country’s democratic institutions and its Euro-Atlantic aspirations. The election results signal a potential shift away from EU integration, long a cornerstone of Georgian policy and enshrined in its constitution, and towards closer ties with the Kremlin and Eurasian powers. This shift is particularly striking given that a significant majority of Georgians—with polls showing over 80% support—continue to favor EU accession, while further alignment with Russia remains deeply unpopular. The elections were widely regarded as a referendum on Georgia’s geopolitical orientation, and the growing disconnect between government actions and public opinion underscores the high stakes for Georgia’s domestic stability and regional influence.

The opposition and former president Salome Zourabichvili are contesting the official results. Post-election protests erupted on 28 October and have continued since, met with intense police violence and pressure from the authorities. More than 500 people have been detained and dozens injured by riot police using water cannon and tear gas. The demonstrations began following the disputed election results and the announcement that Georgia’s EU accession negotiations had been suspended by the new government until the end of 2028. This decision followed the EU’s earlier move to freeze negotiations in June 2024, citing concerns about authoritarianism after the GD passed laws requiring organizations receiving foreign funding to register as foreign agents and an anti-LGBTQ+ law, both modelled on Russian legislation. These laws had sparked heavy protests throughout Georgia in 2023 and 2024. The United States reacted by freezing bilateral aid, NATO partners canceled military support, and the United Kingdom paused its joint security dialogue. Although the election was rigged, the GD was expected to secure twice as many votes as any opposition party. Western governments criticized the election but refrained from rejecting the results outright.

The GD party had previously won the 2016 and 2020 elections as well as the controversial 2024 parliamentary elections, with results not legally challenged domestically due to the GD’s control over the courts. With the inauguration of new President Mikheil Kavelashvili, a former professional footballer, on 29 December 2024, the only significant institutional opposition, former President Salome Zourabichvili, was removed from office. This marked another milestone in the dominance of the GD party, founded in 2012 by billionaire oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, widely regarded as Georgia’s de facto ruler despite serving as prime minister for only 13 months. Ivanishvili, Georgia’s richest man, made his fortune in Russia during the 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union, leaving Russia in 2002 when Vladimir Putin became president but maintaining close ties to Russian business and politics. His political views mix anti-Western sentiment, social conservatism, and populist rhetoric aimed at consolidating power and discrediting opponents. This entrenched dominance reflects the challenges faced by opposition forces, highlighting the fragility of democratic institutions under prolonged one-party rule.

Georgia’s geopolitical significance lies in its strategic location in the South Caucasus, serving as a critical bottleneck for Eurasian energy transit, economic integration, and trade routes. Positioned at the crossroads of Europe and Asia with access to the sea, the country plays a pivotal role in connecting these regions, making developments within Georgia highly relevant for regional stability and global interests. Historically, Georgia has had complicated ties to Russia, as its predecessors controlled the country for much of the last few centuries, and it remains economically dependent on its northern neighbor. The Kremlin still controls Georgian separatist territories Abkhazia and South Ossetia after the invasion of Georgia in 2008. Meanwhile, the Georgian government does not participate in sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine and has been accused of helping to evade Russian sanctions, while also serving as a destination for political refugees from Russia. This duality underscores Georgia’s complex balancing act, navigating historical and economic ties to Russia while seeking to align with Western democratic principles.

In conclusion, Georgia stands at a crossroads where its domestic political trajectory and geopolitical orientation hold profound implications not only for its own citizens but for the broader regional balance of power. The disputed elections and their aftermath underline the fragile state of democracy in a nation critical to both Russian and Western interests. Georgia’s location as a bridge between Europe and Asia, coupled with its potential as a model for democratic resilience, makes it a focal point in the struggle between authoritarian and democratic forces. Allowing Georgia to drift further into authoritarianism would undermine the democratic aspirations of its people and signal that authoritarian regimes can consolidate power without consequence. For Western allies, supporting democratic governance and addressing the increasing authoritarian tendencies in Georgia is not merely an ethical imperative but a strategic necessity to ensure stability in the region and counterbalance Russian influence.