MS Risk Blog

Attack on German Christmas Market

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Context: Why was Germany chosen as an attack location?

Terrorism attacks are not new to Germany as the history of the country shows, during the Weimar Republic elected officials were beaten and murdered, and in the 1960s the Red Army Faction, a far-left military group, conducted kidnappings and murders in opposition to the socioeconomic system of West Germany, capitalism combined with elements of social democracy. In recent times, there have been attacks from Islamic extremists along with left and right-wing extremists. One of the most prominent was on the 19th of December 2016 when a man killed 13 individuals after driving a truck into a crowd at a market in Berlin, afterward, ISIS claimed responsibility.

One of the explanations for the rise in terrorist attacks is Germany’s position as a centre for terrorist and Islamic extremists in Europe where the group has grown at a faster rate compared with other European nations. Many Turkish and Kurdish Islamic groups are active in Germany as their top leaders fled there in the 2000s.

Another explanation is the growing resentment towards the national government as economic growth has decreased and the political consensus of social democracy is becoming less popular. This is driving citizens to more extreme political ideologies on both the left and right.

Possible motives behind the Christmas market attack  

The suspect of the 20 December 2024 attack in Magdeburg, Taleb al-Abdulmohsen, was a 50-year-old Saudi citizen who arrived in Germany in 20006 and worked as a doctor. The suspected attacker has no known links to Islamist extremism, however, German authorities have so far treated the attack as a terrorist incident. Six people were killed in the attack and at least 299 were injured, according to the latest figures from the interior ministry of Saxony-Anhalt.

Prosecutor Horst Walter Noepns has suggested the reasoning behind the crime could be linked to the mistreatment of Saudi Arabia refugees by German officials. The suspect has been seen as an outspoken critic of Islam and of European immigration policy, particularly on social media. Reports in the German media have shown the suspect campaigned against Islam while in Saudi Arabia and showed anger at German governments for letting in large numbers of Muslim refugees. Additionally, there are reports of the suspect helping young Saudi women and critics of the government escape and seek asylum in Germany, describing an “Islamism of Europe”. The suspect’s posts on the X platform show a distrust of authorities in Germany along with a belief in conspiratorial stories including accusing police of stealing a USB stick from him and destroying a criminal complaint he had filed. Along with threats of violence against German citizens and politicians. All this points to a strong negative view of Islam and the regime in Saudi Arabia along with German authorities.

Additionally, the mental state of the suspect can also be observed as a factor. The suspect had been treated for mental illness in the past and tested positive for drug use on the night of his arrest. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser has said so far no motive has been established but “there are striking signs of a pathological psyche” in the suspect.

Furthermore, there is reason to believe the suspect was already a potential threat to the public. German police had contacted the suspect in September and October of 2024 and tried but failed to meet up with him in December. Additionally, the Saudi government sent four official notifications to the German authorities, three to intelligence and one to the foreign ministry, warning them about the “very extreme views” held by the suspect. All of these were ignored, according to sources close to the Saudi government. Although German Police say the accusations from the Saudi government were too vague.

What has resulted?

The Interior Minister of Germany has argued lessons have been learned from this attack, specifically on tracking potential attackers who don’t fit conventional threat categories or profiles, new indicators and action plans will need to be created. Security experts have criticised the security apparatus of the Magdeburg Christmas market in which organisers had left an escape route open, designed for emergency service vehicles which the suspect used to drive past all the blockades. Additionally, elements were missing from the security plan, a chain to block the gap between two concrete blocks, for instance. Criminal charges have been made against the city and local police which could lead to investigations around the security plan and implementation for the market.

The result amongst the public has been an increased opposition to Germany’s current immigration policy and a rise in support for right-wing political parties such as the AfD, who have called for major rallies to take place across the country. This will become significant as the country prepares for an election in early 2025.