Hostage diplomacy of Russia

Key Judgement:

• It is highly likely that Russia would continue taking foreigners from Western countries as hostage to be used as bargaining chips
• It is likely that targeted foreigners have Western countries citizenship with Russian citizenship or ethnic background.
• It is realistically possible that traveling to Belarus is also dangerous as Russia.

Hostage taking has been used by both state and non-state actors as a diplomatic tactic over the past few decades. However, most modern countries do not conduct such acts for several reasons. A few countries, such as Iran and North Korea, have been using Western hostages as a tactic to breach their international isolation. One reason these countries can and do conduct such acts is that their citizens do not need protection in foreign countries due to their political systems or international isolation. Consequently, hostage-taking by state actors is seen as an unusual act in the international community and is often viewed as a ‘rogue state’ action.

However, it seems that Russia has decided to follow its new ally – North Korea. There have been some cases of foreigners being arrested in Russia, but it was mostly due to Western foreigners who encountered problems because of a lack of understanding of Russian law enforcement’s intense practices. Since the Ukraine war, relations between Russia and the West have been deteriorating. As a result, Westerners in Russia have started to face consequences.

With Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich becoming the face of US-Russian relations, Russia is holding dozens of American citizens in jail. One of the early hostages was Brittney Griner, a WNBA star who was facing ten years in prison for bringing drugs into Russia. She was exchanged for Viktor Bout, a Russian arms dealer who was serving a term in a US prison. Since then, dozens of American citizens, some with Russian ethnic backgrounds or dual citizenship, have been detained. Because Russia presents itself as a lawful country, most arrests of Americans are under official prosecution. In most cases, Russian authorities use espionage charges against them, including Gershkovich. However, such prosecutions often do not proceed, resulting in detainees being held in legal limbo, allowing Russia to use them as bargaining chips against the United States.

There are cases where Russian authorities are not using espionage charges, such as Staff Sergeant Gordon Black, who was stationed in South Korea and travelled to Russia to meet his Russian girlfriend. He was arrested and accused of stealing from a woman. William Russel Nycum was accused of petty hooliganism and alcohol charges.

It is unclear how credible the Russian claims of espionage against US citizens are, considering US-Russian relations are at their worst since the Cold War, and there often are fabrications of evidence within Russian legal system. However, it is clear that Russian authorities are conducting systematic attacks on US citizens to pressure the US to stop its sanctions and support for Ukraine. The arrests coincide with US announcements of new sanctions or support for Ukraine, leading US authorities to believe these are targeted attacks on US citizens. The US Department of State has announced that US citizens should avoid travel to Russia due to security reasons.

Other major Western countries are also facing such dangers. One of the most notable cases is Laurent Vinatier, who works for a Swiss conflict mediation NGO. He was charged under Moscow’s “foreign agents” law amid escalating tensions between Russia and France over the Ukraine conflict. With Russian influence increasing in Africa, aiming to take over France’s original dominance, French President Emmanuel Macron has been reacting to the Russian threat strongly. Because the arrest was made right after he announced that France could send military trainers to Ukraine, it is highly likely that the espionage charge against Vinatier is false.

A similar situation happened to South Korea; a country drawn into the conflict as Russia sought help from North Korea. Although relations between the two countries had been positive, recent developments of North Korean support for the Ukraine war and economic support from Russia have deteriorated the relationship between South Korea and Russia. Russia has arrested one South Korean citizen, a preacher of a church in Vladivostok and an activist who helps North Korean defectors escape from North Korea. Like Gershkovich, he was accused of espionage by the FSB and is being held in Lefortovo prison, the same prison where Gershkovich is held.

The scope and scale of such hostage diplomacy are unclear at this point. It is also unclear how many espionage cases are true. However, it is evident that Russian authorities have abandoned their relatively friendly attitude towards foreigners. The practice that began with the World Cup and Olympics has ended, and foreigners in Russia face threats according to the ever-changing relationship between Russia and their home countries. It is also clear such arrest are synchronized with diplomatic incident.

One reason such a crackdown is possible is that Russian authorities still use the Soviet system that registers all foreigners’ domestic movements. Every person in Russia, including both foreigners and Russians, must register wherever they are living or staying. Establishments such as hotels must provide this information to authorities, allowing them to track every movement of every person in Russia. With the unregulated power of the Russian police and other security services, crackdowns against foreigners can be very easy and effective.

For these reasons, traveling to Russia without diplomatic immunity is highly dangerous. Individuals can face multiple years in Russian prison or damage the diplomatic stance of their home country. Without proper reason, traveling, living and studying in Russia must be avoided, unless the individual has Chinese, Iranian, North Korean and Belarusian citizenship. It is realistically possible that similar threat can exist also in Belarus, but crackdown against foreigners in such scale is not yet observed.