The Driving Forces behind the Houthis  

It is highly likely that the Houthis will continue to use their current Red Sea strategy in order to consolidate their power and territory in Yemen and achieve political legitimacy. It is assessed with high confidence that political leverage over the Yemeni government, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, is the driving force behind the Houthis Red Sea strategy. 

The Houthi’s, a Shia-Islamic militant group based in Yemen, have been disrupting maritime trade in the Red Sea region via drone attacks, ballistic missiles, as well as piracy, since October 7^th, 2023. This disruption was initially targeted at only Israeli-linked vessels; however, this has since spread to encompass all shipping in the region. The overt reason for the disruption is to degrade Israeli trade in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza, one of the groups, along with the Houthis and Hezbollah, which makes up Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”. The Houthis, however, have been active and operating since the 1980s, and have been in a civil war in Yemen since 2014, thus indicating that the group has their own agenda, which is separate from Iran’s machinations. This paper will therefore analyse the formation of the Houthis via their political and religious lines and aim to assess the short to medium term goals of the Houthis, removed from Iranian influence.

Religion is the focal point of the Houthi movement and identity, which was born in the late 1980s to early 1990s as a response to the marginalisation being faced by the Zaydi population (Zaydism being a branch of Shi’ism) by the Sunni Yemen Arab Republic. Saudi Arabia was very involved in pushing the Sunni belief system amongst the largely Zaydi population of Northern Yemen in order to undermine the Zaydi elites, with an aim to consolidating a religiously unified territory. In response to the marginalisation faced by Zaydi’s, the Houthi’s nurtured a network of ‘Believing Youth’, and increasingly adopted Shi’ite symbols similar to those common in Iran, thus sowing the seeds of sectarianism which eventually led to several rounds of conflict with the Yemeni government between 2004 and 2010. This was followed by failed negotiations at the National Dialogue Conference in 2013-2014, which led to the Houthi capturing of the Yemeni capital Sanaa and continuing to march south to consolidate the west coast of Yemen. This has since developed into a civil war between the Yemeni government, backed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the Houthis, who at this time started to receive increased levels of support from Iran and Hezbollah.

The Houthi’s political arm, known as ‘Ansar Allah’ (Partisans of God), is positioned directly in line with their religious ideology. Their political influence, however, extends further than their originating religious and geographical roots. Whilst the Zaydi population makes up roughly 30% of the Yemeni population, the Houthis now control the geographic territory which holds roughly 66% of the Yemeni population, which is 20 million people. Politically, the Houthis strategy for attacking ships in the Red Sea have several layers to them. Domestically within Yemen, the Houthis can frame their attacks as a ‘Just War’, appealing to the population of Yemen based on moral and religious propaganda. This serves as a recruitment tool, as well as a political tool, both to legitimise the Houthis in Yemen, and against the Yemeni government.

In the Middle East and internationally, the Houthi’s strategy in the Red Sea serves as a publicity and bargaining tool, achieving the dual purpose of garnering international attention to amplify their message, as well as increasing their power in the political sphere to leverage an end to the war with Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. By proving their military capabilities in the Red Sea, the Houthis have applied pressure to Saudi Arabia and their coalition, who are likely to want to end direct conflict to focus on their internal economic and tourism industries.

By posturing as moral fighters in a ‘Just War’, the Houthis have used their Red Sea strategy to gain political legitimacy, bolster support within a suffering Yemeni population, and gain political power in the Middle East. Whilst Iran are the key enablers for the Houthis complex attacks due to the advanced weapons systems that they provide, they are not steering the Houthis politically. It is highly likely that the Houthis will continue to use their current Red Sea strategy in order to consolidate their power and territory in Yemen and achieve political legitimacy. It is assessed with high confidence that political leverage over the Yemeni government, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, is the driving force behind the Houthis Red Sea strategy.