Tag Archives: United States

US Election 2016: How Does the US Presidential Election Work?

In January 2017, after a drawn out and expensive campaign, the United States will have a new leader. US presidential elections mean that citizens are not only choosing a head of state, but also a head of government and a commander-in-chief of the largest military on the planet. So how does the US Presidential election work?

Who Can Be President?

Technically, to run for president, you only need to be “a natural born” US citizen, at least 35 year old and have been a resident for fourteen years. However in reality, every president since 1933 has been a governor, senator or a five-star military general. During the 2016 election period, at one point there were ten governors or former governors and ten who are or were senators. One person is nominated to represent the Republican and Democratic parties in the presidential election.

Who Gets to be the Presidential Pick for Each Party?

Beginning in February of the year of the election, a series of elections are held in every state and overseas territory. These elections determine who becomes each party’s official presidential candidate. The winner of each election collects a number of “delegates,” which are party members who have the power to vote for that candidate at the party conventions that are held in July, where candidates are formally confirmed. The more state contests a candidate winds, the more delegates will be pledged to support them at the convention.

This year, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump were the clear winners and were officially nominated at their party’s conventions in July. They also officially unveiled their vice-president picks – Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia for Mrs Clinton and Indiana Governor Mike Pence for the Republicans.

Key Dates Between Now and Election

While the election campaign feels long, in reality it has only begun. Once the candidates have been confirmed at the party conventions in July, the real campaign begins, with each candidate travelling across the country to make their case.

In the last six weeks before the November election, there are three televised presidential debates:

• 26 September in Hempstead, New York
• 4 October in Farmville, Virginia (Vice-Presidential Debate)
• 9 October in St Louis, Missouri
• 19 October in Las Vegas, Nevada

The election will take place on Tuesday, 8 November.

How does the Vote in November Work?

The candidate with the most votes in each state becomes the candidate which that stat supports for president. It all comes down to a system known as the electoral college, which is a group of people who choose the winner – 538 of them. However just half of that number – 270 – is needed in order to make a president. Furthermore, not all states are equal. For example, California has more than ten times the population of Connecticut and therefore they do not get an equal say. Each state has a certain number of these “electors,” based on their population in the most recent census. That number is the same number of districts in a state, plus two senators. When citizens vote for their preferred candidate, they are actually voting for the electors, some of which are pledged to one candidate, and some for another. In almost every state, with the exception of Nebraska and Maine, the winner takes all. Therefore the person who wins the most electors in New York, for example, will get all 29 of New York’s electoral votes. As a result, the swing states are often the ones that matter most.

What are Swing States?

Some states are known as “swing states,” which means that they could go either way. Florida in particular, with 29 votes, famously decided during the 2000 election in favor of Republican George W. Bush, who lost the popular vote nationally but, after a Supreme Court case, won the electoral college. Other swing states include: Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.

When Does the new President Begin Work?

In the days and weeks after the election the victor will assemble a cabinet and will begin crafting a more thorough police agenda. Under the US constitution, the president is inaugurated on 20 January of the year following the election.

Commissioner Warns that EU Should Prepare for Return of Jihadists as Iraq Launches Operation on Mosul

The European Union’s (EU) commissioner has warned that the EU should be prepared for returning jihadists if the so-called Islamic State (IS) is driven out of its Iraqi stronghold, Mosul.

Julian King has told Germany’s Die Welt newspaper that even a small number of militants would pose “a serious threat that we must prepare ourselves for.” The comments come after Iraqi forces on 17 October launched what is expected to be a lengthy offensive on Mosul. Officials believe that as many as 5,000 IS fighters are believed to remain in the city.

King, a British diplomat who was recently made the EU’s security commissioner, told Die Wel that the threat of IS fighters returning to Europe after the fall of Mosul was “very serious.” He disclosed that there were currently about 2,500 fighters from EU countries in the combat zone, stressing however that it was “very unlikely that there would be a mass exodus of IS fighters to Europe.” He noted that similar cases in the past had shown that “only a few fighters come back.”

On day one of the offensive, a coalition of some 34,000 Iraq security personnel, Kurdish fighters, Sunni Arab tribesmen, and Shia military forces, backed by the US and other nations, took control of a number of villages and districts located in the south and east of Mosul. On the ground sources have reported that the strategy is to encircle the city before moving in on the centre itself. Late on 17 October, US Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook disclosed that the campaign was “ahead of schedule,” warning however that it was early days and it was not yet known whetehr IS fighters would “stand and fight.” On 18 October, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian warned that “it could be a long battle” lasting several weeks, if not months.

In other reports, the Syrian army has accused the US-led coalition of planning to allow IS fighters in Mosul to flee into Syria. The army, which has no control over Syria’s border with Iraq, was quoted by Reuters news agency as stating that it would resist any attempt by fighters to cross. The commander of Iraq’s Counter-terrorism Service, Maj-Gen Fadhil Jalil al-Barwari, has been quoted by the New Arab website as saying that IS fighters are being offered two corridors “to go to Syria.”

Iraqi Army Drops Leaflets Over Mosul Ahead of Offensive

According to a military statement in Baghdad, before dawn on Sunday 16 October the Iraqi army dropped thousands of leaflets over Mosul, warning residents that an offensive to recapture the city from the so-called Islamic State (IS) was in its final stages of preparation.

The leaflets carried several messages, in which one of them assured the population that advancing army units and air strikes “will not target civilians.” Another told civilians to avoid known locations of IS militants.

According to Iraqi government and military officials, the assault on Mosul, which is the last city that remains under the control of IS in Iraq, could begin this month with the support of a US-led coalition. IS fighters are dug in it is expected that they will fight hard for control of the city. Furthermore, in previous battles to defend territory, IS fighters have forced civilians to remain in harms’ way, often preventing them from escaping.

On Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that he hoped that the United States and its allies would do their best in order to avoid civilian causalities in an attack on Mosul. Reflecting the growing concerns of authorities over a mass exodus that would complicate the offensive, the leaflets told residents “to stay at home and not to believe rumours spread by Daesh (IS)” to cause panic. Earlier this month, Iraqi officials launched a radio station in order to help Mosul residents stay safe during the offensive. The radio is broadcasting from Qayyara, a town located 60 km (about 40 miles) south of Mosul, where the army is massing forces ahead of the offensive.

Mosul, which had a pre-war population of around 2 million, is around 4 – 5 times th size of any other city captured by the militants so far. Last week, the United Nations stated that it was bracing for the world’s biggest and most complex humanitarian effort in the battle for the city, which could make up to 1 million people homeless and see civilians used as human shields or even gassed.

Security Advisory: Yemen (Maritime – 14 October 2016)

Executive Summary – Tensions Flaring in Waters Around Yemen

Media reports have been relating recent events involving shore to ship attack attempts against US naval vessels patrolling in Yemeni waters.  These follow a previous successful attack against a UAE logistics vessel, which saw it damaged and withdrawn from the Saudi-led campaign.  The attacks are believed to have been carried out by Houthi rebels although they have strenuously denied any involvement.  The most recent strikes are believed by some to be retaliation for the Saudi air strike that killed at least 140 mourners at a funeral in Sanaa on 8th October 2016.  These incidents have resulted in the US Navy launching counter measures to defend themselves and conducting their own missile strikes against shore based radar sites believed to have been directing the original Houthi attacks.  Iranian warships are deploying into the theatre and this is serving to ratchet tensions further.  The Iranian deployment was planned and announced earlier but is now being linked to developing events.   

Security Advisory

 Merchant vessels transiting the region should expect to see increased military naval and air traffic.  Masters should be vigilant when cruising within range of landfall and be prepared for contact with combatant parties. Vessels moving to or from Yemeni ports must ensure situational awareness at all times and comply carefully with military instructions.  MS Risk continues to monitor events and will be issuing in depth insights and forecasts in the coming days.

MH17: Team to Pinpoint Missile Launch Site

An international team of prosecutors investigating the downing of flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine on 17 July 2014 released its findings on 28 September, stating that the missile, which downed the plane “came from Russia.”

The Joint Investigation Team (JIT), which has been investigating the downing of flight MH17 over Ukraine and which includes prosecutors from Australia, Belgium, Malaysia and Ukraine, disclosed Wednesday that the Buk missile that hit the plane was transported from Russia. According to chief Dutch police investigator Wilbert Paulissen, “based on the criminal investigation, we have concluded that flight MH17 was downed by a Buk missile of the series 9M83 that came from the territory of the Russian Federation.” He added that the missile launcher, which fired one missile from the village of Pervomaysk, was later taken back to Russia. During a news conference, prosecutors played recordings from intercepted phone calls. They further stated that witnesses reported seeing the missile launcher move from Russia into Ukraine and presented pictures and videos, adding that the launch site was pinpointed by “many witnesses.” Prosecutors noted however that it was not clear whether an order had been given for fighters to launch the missile or whether they had acted independently. The investigative team has identified 100 people who were described as being of interest to them however they have not yet formally identified individual suspects.

An earlier inquiry by the Dutch Safety Board concluded that a Russian-made Buk missile had hit the plane. The Safety Board (DSB) report disclosed in October 2015 that the missile was fired from a 320 square kilometre area southeast of where the plane came down, with the head of the DSB disclosing that the area was under rebel control.

Pro-Russian rebels have been blamed by Ukraine and the West for shooting down the plane. At the time of the incident, Ukrainian government forces were involved in heavy fighting with pro-Russian separatists. Wednesday’s findings will challenge Moscow’s suggestion that the plane was brought by the Ukrainian military. In the past, Russia has denied any involvement, including allegations that the Buk missile launcher had come from Russian territory. Repeating those details on Wednesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated, “first-hand radar data identified all flying objects, which could have been launched or were in the air over the territory controlled by rebels at the moment,” adding that “the data are clear-cut…there is no rocket. If there was a rocket, it could only have been fired from elsewhere.” Investigators have noted that they did not have access to the new radar images on which Moscow was basing its latest statements. Separatist rebels have also denied their involvement. Eduard Basurin, military deputy operational commander at the rebel Donetsk People’s Republic, told Interfax news agency, “we never had such air defense systems, not the people who could operate them…Therefore we could not have shot down the Boeing (flight MH17).”

After the attack, the European Union (EU) and the United States extended sanctions on Russia that had been initially introduced after the Ukraine conflict began. Earlier this week, Russia produced radar images, which it argued depicted that the plane could not have come from rebel-held areas. Critics however have pointed out that Russian officials have given three versions of events since the plane was shot down over two years ago.

All 298 people on board the Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 died when the plane broke apart in mid-air while it was flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur. Most of those on board were Dutch citizens.