Tag Archives: Nigeria

Nigeria Likely to Miss Boko Haram Deadline

While Nigeria’s government vowed earlier this year to end Boko Haram’s six-year insurgency by this month, the fast approaching deadline looks likely to be missed with hit-and-run attacks continuing as the militant group in recent weeks has increased its tempo of attacks in the Lake Chad region despite a regional response, which so far has shown little sign of effect.

In August, newly elected President Muhammadu Buhari gave his military commanders until December to build on apparent gains in recapturing territory, which was seized by the insurgents in 2014. However despite further claims successes since then there has been no let-up in deadly suicide and bomb attacks. Regional analysts are now reporting that it will be nearly impossible for the government and military to meet the deadline as “Boko Haram is still in control of Borno North senatorial district,” adding that “there are still attacks occurring in Chibok, Buratia, Gwoza (in Borno state) and Buni Yadi (in Yobe), as well as in the Gulak region of northern Adamawa.” Despite the ongoing attacks, the Nigerian army has maintained that it has control of the situation, however the weekend announcement of the arrest of about a dozen suspects, which army officials disclosed were part of Bok Haram “sleeper cells” in the capital Abuja, has increased concerns that the ongoing military operations are pushing Boko Haram insurgents further out of northeastern Nigeria and into not only neighbouring states, including Niger, Cameroon and Chad, but further south, to areas that have been less affected by the insurgency. Furthermore, military officials have also disclosed that they have again begun operations against Boko Haram bases “deep inside” the Sambisa Forest in Borno, despite indications that fighters have now moved to islands on Lake Chad.

While President Buhari, a retired army general and former military ruler, has consistently vowed to approach the ongoing conflict differently from his predecessors, many were surprised that he had imposed such a deadline. The previous administration under former President Goodluck Jonathan had made repeated pledges of a swift end to the conflict. However all of these pledges came and went, which affected the government’s and military’s credibility. While President Buhari promised to restructure the county’s military, which was hit by complaints that money and weapons were not reaching frontline troops despite massive government defense spending, there have been minimal signs of an immediate overhaul. So far the major changes have been the redeployment of the high command to the Borno state capital, Maiduguri, and a claimed upsurge in the morale of troops.

Since announcing the deadline in August, President Buhari has been more cautious. In September, he warned that guerrilla-style tactics would persist, while on Monday, he told army top brass that the deadline “should serve as a guide.” The ongoing conflict in northeastern Nigeria, and its spread to neighbouring countries, has proven the underlining need for a multilateral response and greater coordination rather than unilateral action. The Nigerian military has been focusing on defeating Boko Haram as a conventional fighting force. However little has been done in order to tackle the root causes of the insurgency. Furthermore, a coordinated, regional approach to ending the insurgency still looks far off despite an increasing wave of suicide and bomb attacks outside Nigeria. A new 8,700-strong multi-national Joint Task Force (MNJTF), comprising of troops from Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Benin, was supposed to have been deployed in Late July however the African Union (AU)-backed force has yet to start operations, with no reason given for the lengthening delay and questions over whether the countries have the resources to commit.

Triple Suicide Bombing On Chadian Side of Lake Chad Region

According to a Chadian security source, a triple suicide bombing on an island in Lake Chad on Saturday killed at least 27 people and left more than eighty wounded in what is another apparent strike carried out by Boko Haram fighters despite an ongoing regional offensive to stop the insurgency.

The source has reported that “three suicide bombers blew themselves up in three different places at the weekly market on Loulou Fou, an Island in Lake Chad,” adding that the explosions had killed 30 people, including the three attackers, and injured more than eighty others. On 9 November, N’Djamena declared a state of emergency in the flashpoint region of Lake Chad, which also straddles Cameroon, Nigeria and Niger and which has been frequently targeted by Nigerian-based Boko Haram fighters, who this year declared allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. The decree effectively granted the governor of the remote region the authority to ban the circulation of people and vehicles as well as to search homes and to seize arms. In a statement, the European Union (EU) disclosed that Saturday’s attacks were “a threat to the stability of the country and the region.” The bloc further indicated that it stood ready to “use all available means to help in the fighting against terrorism” in the region. WeDespite the state of emergency in the region, attacks have continued and have proven Boko Haram’s continued desire to carry out deadly attacks despite loosing territory in northeastern Nigeria. In recent months, Boko Haram fighters have stepped up their attacks and suicide bombings on Chadian villages in the lake region that lie close to the frontier with Nigeria. The deadliest attack on the Chadian side of the lake occurred on 10 October. According to officials in N’Djamena, it was another triple suicide that resulted in the deaths of 41 people at Baga Sola. Since the beginning of this year, the Chadian army has been on the frontline of a regional military operation against Boko Haram, whose attacks have spread from northeastern Nigeria to the country’s three Lake Chad neighbors. The joint operation of the four Lake Chad countries, plus Benin, has involved 8,700 soldiers, police and civilians.

Examining the Rivalry Between al-Qaeda and Islamic State

The 20 November 2015 attack on a luxury hotel in the Malian capital of Bamako killed nineteen people and highlighted Mali’s ongoing security concerns. In the wake of the attack, three terrorist groups known to operate regionally claimed responsibility. Amongst them is al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Many experts have indicated that the attack was partly aimed at asserting the global terror network’s relevance as it continues to face an unprecedented challenge from the so-called Islamic State (IS) group for leadership of the global jihadi movement. It came exactly a week after IS carried out several attacks in Paris, which killed 130 people in what is the bloodies attack on France in decades. That attack, which is also the deadliest to take place on the European continent in the last ten years, also marked the first time that suicide bombers were used to carry in Europe, it has also prompted the questioning of security across the European Union and the ongoing migration crisis. What is evident however is that in recent years, al-Qaeda has to a certain degree been eclipsed by the IS group and its self-styled caliphate. As IS continues to expand in Syria and Iraq, and garners further allegiance from terrorist groups operating in other regions of the world, such as Nigerian-based Boko Haram, al-Qaeda is attempting to remind the world that the movement founded by Osama bin Laden continues to pose a serious threat.

Origins

IS began as al-Qaeda in Iraq, a local affiliate that battled American troops and carried out deadly attacks which targeted the country’s Shi’ite majority. However from the beginning there were tensions between the local group, led by Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and al-Qaeda’s central leadership. In a 2005 letter, which was obtained and publicized by US intelligence officials, Osama bin Laden’s deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, objected to al-Zarqawi’s brutality towards Shi’ite civilians, stating that it would turn Muslims against the group. While Al-Zarqawi was killed in a US airstrike in 2006, he is seen by man as being the founder of IS, which continues to use brutal tactics.

In 2013, IS leader Abu Bakh al-Baghdadi renamed the group the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and proclaimed his authority in Iraq and in neighbouring Syria. Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the leader al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, the al-Nusra Front, rejected the move and swore allegiance to al-Zawahri, who ordered al-Baghdadi to confine his operations to Iraq. Al-Baghdadi however refused and by 2014, al-Nusra Front and IS were battling each other across northern Syria. This split was felt across the world, with al-Qaeda affiliates in Yemen and Northern Africa remaining loyal to al-Zawahri while others choosing to pledge their allegiance to IS.

Differences

While both al-Qaeda and IS want to end Western influence in the Middle east, and want to unite Muslims under a transnational caliphate that is governed by a strict version of Islamic law, both groups are bitterly divided over tactics. Bin Laden believed that attacking the “far enemy” of the US would weaken its support for the “near enemy” of Arab autocracies and rally Muslims to overthrow them. Under al-Zawahri, local al-Qaeda affiliates have sought to exploit post-Arab Spring chaos by allying with other insurgents and tribes and by cultivating local support in places such as Syria and Yemen, where they provide social services. For bin Laden, who was killed in a US raid in Pakistan in 2011, as well as his successor al-Zawahri, the establishment of a caliphate was a vaguely defined end goal.

IS however began seizing and holding territory in Syria and Iraq and later forming affiliates across the Middle East, and into Africa. In the summer of 2014, IS declared a caliphate, and deemed the Syrian city of Raqqa as its capital. Al-Baghdadi has since claimed to be the leader of the world’s 1.6 billion Muslims, however an overwhelming majority have rejected his ideas and brutal tactics.

Terrorist Groups that Operate in Mali

In the wake of the 20 November deadly attack on the Radisson Blu hotel in Bamako, Mali, competing claims released by terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Macina Liberation Front and al-Murabitoun, highlight the number of militant Islamist groups that operate in Mali, a country that has a weak central government and vast ungoverned spaces.

While most of the groups that operate in the West African country trace their origins to al-Qaeda’s North African branch, memberships amongst these groups over the years has become very fluid between them. What is important to note, however, is that for the most part, they have not allied themselves with the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, which is al-Qaeda’s main rival for dominance of the world’s jihadist movements. While other terrorist groups, which operate on the African continent, such as Nigerian-based Boko Haram, have declared allegiance to IS, others, such as Somali-based al-Shabaab, have seen themselves splinter, with some leaders choosing to remain with al-Qaeda while others opting to pledge allegiance to IS.

In 2012, Mali became a focal point for jihadis groups, when for nine months, Ansar Dine, which is composed mainly of ultraconservative Tuareg tribesmen, and other Islamic extremists took over northern Mali. They were later pushed out by a French-led military intervention in 2013. In the wake of France launching Operation Barkhane in 2014, radical groups operating in northern Mali have suffered heavy losses, as French troops have targeted the groups in their havens in northern Mali, as well as in Niger and along the Libyan border. Throughout this year, radical groups have expanded their operations, moving from the desert regions of northern Mali, and into more urban towns and cities in the central and southern areas of the country.

AQIM

Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is al-Qaeda’s North African Branch. It expanded south into Mali under pressure from Algerian security forces in the early 2000s. The group went on to make a fortune in smuggling and ransoming hostages. Under militant Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the group recruited disaffected Malians and Mauritanians and expanded its presence within the Sahara desert region.

Ansar Dine

The group, which is led by Tuareg Iyad Ag Ghali, emerged in 2012 as a religious alternative to the largely secular Tuareg separatists operating in northern Mali. Ansar Dine allied itself with al-Qaeda and took over much of the north before being driven back into the desert by the French army.

MUJAO

The Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa, which was founded in 2011, has been described as a splinter group from AQIM. The group has carried out attacks across West Africa, including the kidnapping of aid workers and Algerian diplomats. During the Tuareg uprising in northern Mali, the group briefly controlled the northern Malian city of Gao.

Al-Murabitoun

Founded by Mokhtar Belmokhtar in 2013, it effectively combined MUJAO with Belmokhtar’s own Masked Brigade and completed his shift to a more Saharan-focused entity. The group claimed an attack on a Bamako restaurant, which killed five in March of this year. While earlier this year, there were reports that Belmokhtar was killed by a US airstrike, these claims have been denied both by his terrorist group and al-Qaeda. There have also been unconfirmed reports that others now lead the group and that it has pledged allegiance to the IS.

Macina Liberation Front

While this group is relatively new, appearing in January 2015, it has proven to be deadly. Militants have targeted Malian security forces in the central regions of Mopti and Segou. Many of its members are believed to have formerly been with MUJAO and are members of the Peul ethnic group.

Boko Haram

While Boko Haram has not carried out any attacks in Mali, the Nigerian-based terrorist group poses a threat to the region, as it has carried out deadly attacks in the Lake Chad area, which includes Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria. Boko Haram has expanded its aims from wanting to impose strict Sharia law in Nigeria’s northeastern region to recreating an ancient Islamic caliphate across the borders into Cameroon, Chad and Niger. The group has pledged allegiance to IS.

Ansaru

Ansaru broke away from Boko Haram and has since been blamed for the kidnappings of foreigners in northern Nigeria and northern Cameroon.

US Deploys Troops to Cameroon

United States President Barack Obama informed Congress on Wednesday that he will deploy up to 300 personnel to Cameroon for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance operations against Boko Haram insurgents.

In a letter that was released by the White House, President Obama disclosed that ninety personnel have already been deployed, which marks a modest but significant escalation of US involvement in the fight against the terrorist group, which earlier this year aligned itself with the Islamic State (IS) group. In making Wednesday’s announcement, the White House stressed that personnel will not take part in combat operations and would be armed only for self-defense. According to White House press secretary Josh Earnest, they are being sent under an arrangement with the Cameroonian government to conduct airborne intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance operations in the region. US officials have disclosed that the focus will still be on a regional coalition that has tried to keep a once regional Muslim anti-colonial movement from metastasizing into a regional jihadist threat. In the statement, the president indicated that the mission will last “until their support is no longer needed.”

While Washington has largely shied away from engaging its vast military assets to combat Boko Haram, the White House decision comes as Boko Haram steadily expands operations beyond its traditional base in northern Nigeria, crossing into neighboring Cameroon and Niger.