Tag Archives: Libya

Al-Qaeda Leader Believed Killed in Libya…Again

Pentagon officials have indicated that they believe they hit their target – an al-Qaeda-linked commander who led a deadly attack on Algerian gas facility in 2013. However uncertainty surrounds the US airstrike on eastern Libya, and whether Mokhtar Belmokhtar was actually amongst the militants said to have been killed in the bombing, as al-Qaeda and other militants deny that Mokhtar Belmoktar was killed in the US airstrike.

Libyan officials have reported that Sunday’s airstrikes hit a gathering of militants on a farm outside Ajdabiya, a coastal city located about 850 kilometres (530 miles) east of the capital, Tripoli. A US official has indicated that in the airstrikes, two F-15 fighter jets launched multiple 500-pound bombs, with authorities confirming that there were no US personnel on the ground for the assault. However since these reports emerged, there have been conflicting reports on how many were killed, and whether Belmokhtar was amongst them.

An initial assessment indicates that the bombing that targeted Belmokhtar was successful, with Col. Steve Warren, a Pentagon spokesman, disclosing that “post-strike assessments” were still underway on Monday in order to determine whether the Algerian militant was in fact killed. Maj. Mohammed Hegazi, a military spokesman for Libya’s internationally recognized government based in the eastern region of the country, also disclosed Monday that further tests were needed in order to identify the dead, which numbered at least seventeen. He added that amongst those killed were three foreigners – a Tunisian and two unidentified militants. While Hegazi criticized his own government for rushing to confirm late Sunday that Belmokhtar was amongst the dead, he disclosed that the raid was based on solid intelligence, which indicated that militants forced out of the eastern city of Benghazi by fighting there had taken refuge in Ajdabiya. While both the Libyan and US government are leaning towards Belmokhtar having been killed in the strike, conflicting reports from al-Qaeda and Islamists operating in the region have emerged in recent days.

A Libyan Islamist with ties to militants indicated Monday that the airstrikes missed Belmokhtar but that they had killed four members of a Libyan extremist group that is linked to al-Qaeda, Ansar Shariah, in Ajdabiya. The group has been tied to the 11 September 2012 attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi that killed US Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans. Another militant has also reported that Belmokhtar was not at the site of the airstrike. However a news website, which has previously carried statements from Belmokhtar, indicated that he was in Ajdabiya, meeting with affiliates. The Mauritanian website quoted informed sources in Libya stating that six people were killed in the raid and that a Tunisian and Yemeni were wounded.

On Tuesday, Ansar al-Shariah denied that Belmokhtar was killed in the US airstrike. In a statement, the group named seven people it said were killed in the US strike in eastern Libya, however Belmokhtar was not among them, with the statement indicating “no other person was killed.” A second statement released by an umbrella group for militias called the Shura Council of Ajdabiya and its Surroundings also did not list Belmokhtar among the dead.

If officials do confirm Belmokhtar’s death, this would be a major success for US counterterrorism efforts as he is one of the most-wanted militants in the region, with a US $5 million reward for information leading to his capture. However this is not the first time that authorities have claimed to have killed him. He was previously though to have been killed in Mali, however security sources disclosed last year that he had moved to Libya.

Belmokhtar, who is believed to be 43 years old, fought in Afghanistan, where reports emerged that he lost his eye in combat. He was one of a number of fighters who have been battling Algeria’s government since the 1990’s. He later joined al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), before forming his own group, which led the January 2013 attack on Algeria’s Ain Amenas gas complex that killed at least 35 hostages, including three Americans. Reports later emerged that he was in Libya, with US officials believing he was based in the western and southern parts of the country. The US has filed terrorism charges against Belmokhtar in connection to the attack in Algeria, including conspiring to support al-Qaeda, use of a weapon of mass destruction and conspiring to take hostages. Officials maintain that he remains a threat to US and Western interests.

AQAP Confirms Death of Leader

Meanwhile in Yemen, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has confirmed that Nasser al-Wuhayshi, the leader of the offshoot militant group, has been killed in a US drone strike in Yemen, in what is the heaviest blow to the jihadist network since the death of Osama Bin Laden in 2011.

His death was announced by AQAP in an online video, with prominent al-Qaeda militant Khaled Omar Batarfi, a senior member of the group, stating Wuhayshi “was killed in a US drone attack that targeted him along with two other mujahedeen,’ who were also killed. The video statement was dated 15 June. The militant group, which has been behind several plots against Western targets including the deadly attack on French magazine Charlie Hebdo in Paris earlier this year, indicated that it has named its military chief Qassem al-Rimi as its new leader.

Confirmation of Wuhayshi’s death comes after US officials had earlier reported that they are reviewing intelligence to confirm that he was killed in a CIA drone strike that was carried out on 9 June. Yemeni officials have reported that Wuhayshi was believed to have been killed last week in a raid in the al-Qaeda-held Mukalla, in the southeastern Yemeni province of Hadramawt. A Yemeni official further disclosed that last week, a drone had fired four missiles at three al-Qaeda militants, including an unnamed “leading figure,” near Mukalla port, adding that all three were killed on the spot. Witnesses also reported an explosion that killed three men on the seafront last Friday, adding that al-Qaeda gunmen had quickly cordoned off the area and gathered the remains, leading them to believe that a leader was amongst those killed.

Wuhayshi, a Yemeni believed to have been in his 30’s, travelled to Afghanistan in the late 1990’s where he attended al-Qaeda’s Al-Farouk training camp, and fought alongside Bin Laden. He would later become Bin Laden’s close confidante. As US forces closed in the battle of Tora Bora in late 2011, he escaped to Iran, where he was later arrested and extradited to Yemen, where he was jailed until escaping in February 2006. He became head of AQAP in 2007. US officials have indicated that he built one of the most active al-Qaeda branches, with Washington considering AQAP to be al-Qaeda’s deadliest branch. As well as the Charlie Hebdo attacks, which killed 12 people, AQAP was also behind an attempt to blow up as US commercial airline on Christmas Day 2009.

The US State Department had previously offered a US $10 million (£6.4 million) reward for anyone who could help bring Wuhayshi to justice, adding that he was “responsible for approving targets, recruiting new members, allocating resources to training and attack planning, and tasking others to carry out attacks.”

Since late January 2015, AQAP has lost a number of high profile figures in US strikes, including religious official Harith al-Nadhari, ideologue and spokesman Ibrahim al-Rubaish and religious and military official Nasser al-Ansi, along with several other lower ranking figures.

Libya Against UN Action To Prevent Migrant Smugglers from Operating in Mediterranean

Libya’s ambassador to the United Nations indicated Tuesday that his government is refusing to give its consent for UN action, which is aimed at endorsing Europe’s military plan to fight migrant smugglers in the Mediterranean.

According to Ambassador Ibrahim Dabbashi, “the position of Libya is clear: as long as the European Union and some other countries are not dealing with the legitimate government as the sole representative of the Libyan people, they will not get any consent on our part.” The remarks come after EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini appeared before the UN Security Council last month to request UN backing for Europe’s plan to confront the migrant crisis by using military force against smugglers. The Security Council’s EU members – Britain, France, Lithuania and Spain – are currently working with Italy on a draft resolution that would effectively endorse the EU naval force, authorizing the use of force in Libyan territorial waters. However the resolution requires the Libyan government to first give its consent for the operations, which could also take place on its costal territory.

While Libya’s internationally recognized government has been driven out of Tripoli, it is now based in the eastern city of Tobruk. The UN has been for months working to broker an agreement on a new national unity government. Last week, the Tobruk government sent an envoy to Brussels. Foreign Minister Mohamed al-Dayri was at the EU’s headquarters this week, where he attended talks on the EU plan. Despite these meetings, however Dabbashi has made it clear that a letter of consent was not forthcoming, stating, “I think the resolution will never come out.” While the Ambassador did acknowledge that the new EU naval force can act in the Mediterranean without Security Council endorsement, he warned “there are consequences,” adding “I don’t think they will go too far without the Security resolution.”

Since the fall of Moamer Kadhafi in 2011, Libya has been engulfed in fighting and over the past several years, the country has developed into a staging ground for smugglers who load rickety boats with refugees and migrants desperate to reach Europe. So far this year, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) has indicated that some 1,770 migrants have perished on the hazardous journey to Europe, effectively a 30-fold increase on the same period in 2014. Over the past eighteen months, more than 5,000 people have died. Security Council diplomats have privately admitted that European efforts to present a resolution on the migrant crisis have hit a wall over Libya’s refusal to grant them approval. Sources have disclosed that European governments had instructed their diplomats, most of home are based in Tunis, to reach out to the various Libyan factions in a bid to try to get them onboard the plan prior to formally presenting the draft resolution at the Security Council.

Is Libya a Failed state?

Libya has fallen into chaos since the 2011 overthrow of long time dictator Moammar Gadhafi. On 15 October, Egyptian warplanes bombed positions in Benghazi, citing a request by the Libyan administration in Tobruk to assist in battling the militias that have overrun the country. One senior Egyptian official said, “This is a battle for Egypt not Libya.” The fear of the chaos in Libya spreading beyond its borders has caused neighbouring countries to initiate a series of defensive actions, from strengthening border patrols and evacuating citizens, to engaging in attacks. Inside Libya, the country remains paralysed as the country continues its third year of battles.

Failed states often have certain key characteristics:

• A weakened central government
• Little central control over the nation
• Rampant corruption or crime
• Involuntary movement or displacement of the population
• Economic instability or decline
• Failure to provide public services

In light of these characteristics, is it fair to argue that Libya has become a failed state?

It can easily be argued that Libya has a weak central government. On 4 September, the newly elected Libyan government announced that it no longer had control of Tripoli. Militant group Fajr Libya took control of the nation’s capital after several weeks of fighting, and recalled the outgoing government, the Islamist dominated General National Congress (GNC) to resume operations. Meanwhile, the elected government, the House of Representatives, is currently conducting operations from within a 1970s hotel in Tobruk, a thousand miles from the capital. Attempts by the United Nations to negotiate peace talks between the two rival governments came to a standstill in early October. Earlier this week, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon arrived in Tripoli to hold talks with the warring factions. A UN statement on Twitter said Ban “will urge Libyan parties to push forward with political dialogue to restore stability to (the) country.”

Currently, neither of the rival governments carries significant central control over the nation. The country has been divided along tribal groups and militia loyalties. In the east, Ansar al Sharia and other organisation have engaged in battles to create an autonomous region. General Khalifa Hifter has engaged in numerous battles to ‘eliminate’ the radicalised elements that are working to destabilise the nation’s unity. In the west, the region is battling between supporters of the outgoing GNC and the House of Representatives. In the south, clashes between clans have dominated the battles; in April, France referred to the region as a “viper’s nest” of Islamist militants.

The battles among the armed militias and their attempts to enforce dominance in various regions, has led to rampant corruption and crime. The nation has seen an uptick in kidnapping (including the kidnapping of government officials), assassination attempts, offices of businesses and the government held hostage, rampant shootings. Activist group Human Rights Watch has observed that in 2014, there have been at least 250 politically motivated assassinations in Benghazi and Derna alone. They add, “No one has claimed responsibility and there have been no known arrests for the killings. Libyan authorities have failed to conduct investigations, or prosecute those responsible for any of the unlawful killings since 2011, fostering a culture of impunity that has fuelled further abuses.” The lawlessness and clashes in major cities, has caused many residents involuntarily relocate their families to safer regions. This is particularly true in Tripoli and Benghazi.  The United Nations Human Rights Council has estimated that 287,000 people in 29 cities and towns countrywide have been displaced.

Libya has suffered steady economic decline in recent years. Several militias, as well as the rival governments are battling for control of the nation’s vast oil reserves. In 2013, the economy was frozen by blockades of oil export terminals in the East. Last month, ship operators announced that cargo imports into Libya have dropped by an estimated 75%, in large part due to the closure of banks in the nation. These closures affected the ability of Libyan importers to make payments or open letters of credit. Further exacerbating the imports are violence at ports and destinations, the absence of inland transportation, damage to warehouse facilities and the increasing cost of insurance premiums for operations in Libya. It is estimated that Libya’s budget deficit could more than double to 19 billion Libyan dinars ($15 billion) in 2014.

Finally, Libya is struggling to maintain public services including water and electricity. In August, power was cut across most Libyan cities and towns, including Benghazi and Ajdabia. Libya’s General Electricity Company said the blackouts were due to “the acute shortage of fuel supplies to generating stations in the southern areas. Major power transmission circuits which supply Tripoli and neighboring areas have been damaged as well. Other major circuits are also out of service in the eastern area.” Meanwhile, last month leaders in Sirte held an emergency meeting to discuss the shortage of drinking water.

Libya currently has a number of worrying factors, suggesting that if it is not a failed state, it could certainly become one. The UN is currently working to reignite talks between warring factions in hopes of creating a smooth transition of power between the GNC and the House of Representatives. The House of Representatives, for its part, is working to cut the budget deficit for 2015, establish a strong and loyal army, and ensure an increase of public services and a decline in crime and corruption. However, these endeavours may only become successful in the absence of armed militias and radicalised groups. Libya may lean heavily on outside support to bring it back from the brink.

ISIS Influencing Militant Groups in Egypt

On 8 September, Egypt’s Grand Mufti condemned the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), stating that their actions are “far from Islam.” The Grand Mufti’s announcement echoed those of leading Muslim institutions worldwide. Former Deputy Imam of al-Azhar, Sheikh Mahmoud Ashour, added that “there is no religion that accepts the killing of a human soul.”

The threat of ISIS is a concern for Egypt, as it is believed that ISIS has been ‘coaching’ militant groups in Egypt, who have over the last three years conducted a series of attacks in the Sinai Peninsula and in major cities in the nation.

An anonymous senior commander from militant group Sinai-based Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, has said that through internet communication, ISIS has “provided instructions on how to operate more effectively.” He added that while ISIS has not sent fighters or weapons, they have provided advice on carrying out operations, including creating cells of five people, where only one person from each cell makes contact with other cells. The commander also stated, “They are teaching us how to attack security forces, the element of surprise,” for example, suggesting that the groups plant bombs then wait 12 hours before detonating, “so that the man planting the device has enough time to escape from the town he is in.”

On 28 August, Ansar Beit al Maqdis released a video announcing that they had beheaded four Egyptians who they claim were providing intelligence to Mossad, the Israel intelligence agency. The militants claim that the intelligence was used by the Israelis to conduct an airstrike that killed three of their fighters. The victims were abducted by gunmen near Sheikh Zuweid near the Gaza Strip.

In the video, armed men wearing black masks are standing over kneeling captives as one of the militants reads out a statement. Following the statement, the men were decapitated. The chilling footage is similar to those released by ISIS following the beheadings of journalists James Foley and Steven Sotloff.

The connection between ISIS and Ansar Beit al Maqdis has been confirmed by Egyptian security officials who said, “Ansar and Islamic State definitely have ties but there are no Islamic State members in Egypt.” Security officials fear, however, that Egyptians militants who left the nation to fight in Syria may have joined ISIS, and could return home to wreak havoc in Egypt through fighting with the government or recruitment of new members. A potential influx of returning fighters could further stretch Egyptian security forces who have struggled with a series of militant bombings and shootings, in addition to a seemingly unending series of protests –sometimes violent– that have erupted since the ouster of former President Mohamed Morsi in 2013.

Worryingly, the Ansar Beit al Maqdis commander added that there were bombings in Egypt that had not been carried out by his group, and he believes there is a flow of militants in both directions across the Libyan border. Senior officials have expressed concerns that Libyan militants, who have also been inspired by Islamic State, may have forged ties with Ansar Beit al Maqdis, causing elevated threats on Egypt’s eastern and western borders.

In a statement released on 7 September, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi has warned against foreign intervention in Libya, adding that Egypt does not want Libya to fall prey to terrorism. He called on international support for the incoming Libyan parliament.

While al Sisi has warned that Egypt would not hesitate to defend its national security, there is concern of how to deal with threats that are impacting the nation. Military engagement with militant groups in Libya could cause political backlash by both Egyptians and the international community, and result in a drain on the Egyptian economy, which has taken a severe blow since 2011. Egypt’s permanent representative to the UN, Ambassador Amr Ramadan, has expressed his concern over the escalation of fighting in the region. As governments in the West are beginning to form a ‘coalition of the willing’ to fight the escalating threat of ISIS, it is believed that nations in the region that don’t normally cooperate are beginning to agree to work together to combat threats.

White House deputy national security adviser Tony Blinken has stated that Egypt is expected to join the coalition. If this is the case, the Egyptians will be working alongside Turkey; relations between the two countries deteriorated rapidly following the ouster of Morsi last year. However, Blinken added that Egypt, as well as other governments, will be likely to join because they are “starting to see the [ISIS] threat are the wolf at their door.”

Egypt Update: Second Suez Canal Project, National Security Issues

On 5 August, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi announced the nation’s plan to build a new Suez Canal. The new canal will be built alongside the 145-year-old historic waterway in a goal increase income to the Egyptian economy by expanding trade between Europe and Asia.

Egypt has suffered a severe blow to its economy since the 2011 revolution which ousted former President Hosni Mubarak. With the severe downturn in the tourism industry and a slowing of foreign investment, the bulk of the nation’s revenue now comes from the Suez, which earns Egypt approximately US $5 billion. Investors and Egyptians are hoping to establish a major international industrial and logistics trade hub and raise Egypt’s international profile. The country has, for years, had plans to develop 29,000 square miles for this endeavour. In January, Egypt invited 14 consortia to bid for project.

The new canal will run parallel to the existing canal, and span approximately 45 miles. The project is expected to cost $8 billion and create over one million jobs. Estimates suggest it will take five years to complete, although the Egyptian government has set a completion goal of three years. During a press conference in Ismailia, President Al-Sisi declared that the project would be completed within just one year, but it is unlikely that such a large project can be completed in this truncated timeline.

President Al Sisi has put the Egyptian Armed Forces in charge of the project, primarily citing security reasons. As many as twenty Egyptian firms are likely to be involved in development of the canal, but will work under military supervision. The canal has been targeted by militant groups in the Sinai on more than one occasion, including the firing of a missile at the Cosco Asia, a merchant vessel that was traversing the canal in September 2013. The group that claimed responsibility, Al Furqan Brigade, hoped to create fear in shipping companies, causing them to reroute away from the Suez Canal, and thereby weaken the Egyptian economy. The Egyptian military has since put in place increased security measures, including additional security troops and fencing off areas around the Canal Zone.

The Egyptian military is more than a national security force. The Egyptian military owns a minimum of 35 factories, where it produces a range of products including bottled water, food items, flat-screen televisions, refrigerators, cars and more. The military also owns a series of restaurants, football grounds, petrol stations, and a great deal of real estate. The Egyptian military has also been involved in joint ventures to build infrastructure and resorts. However, the business aspect of Egypt’s military is opaque; their budgets are secret, and their industrial investments are neither audited nor taxed. It is estimated by some that the Egyptian military holds a 40% stake in Egypt’s economy, however it is near impossible to verify. Sisi has stated the actual number is closer to 2%. Egypt’s military will likely be responsible for managing the first stage of the project, which will be the “dry digging” of the new canal.

In an additional effort to boost the nation’s slowing economy, Egypt is seeking US $1.5 billion in loans to repay debts owed to foreign oil companies operating in the nation. The move is another part of the scheme to revive the economy and gain interest in foreign investment. The government is avoiding borrowing money from the nation’s central bank in order to avoid putting strain on the national reserves. Simultaneously, Egypt is attempting to woo foreign oil investors into increase exploration and production. Current production rate for gas is approximately 5.1 billion cubic feet per day, and oil production is approximately 675,000 barrels of oil per day.

Egypt has been troubled by the decline in gas production in the face of the worst energy crisis in a generation. Later in August, the Egyptian government will seek bids to import gas to support the nearly 85,000,000 population. Much of the energy bills that Egypt accrues have been in the form of energy subsidies to the poor. However, shortly after Sisi’s election, those subsidies were slashed, spiking energy prices by over 70 percent.

In addition to the nation’s economic woes, Egypt is struggling to control a wave of violence that has hit since the ousting of President Mohamed Morsi in August of last year. Morsi’s removal sparked clashes between those supporting and opposing the Morsi’s organisation, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), as well as sectarian clashes between supposed MB supporters and Christians. On 5 August, sectarian clashes broke out in Minya, reportedly after news was released that Coptic Christians were planning to build a church. However it has been revealed that the clashes were actually ignited by a feud between rivalling Christian and Muslim families, and spread rapidly. Over a dozen people were arrested. Currently the situation is stable. Minya, with its high Coptic Christian population, has seen some of the worst sectarian violence since the ouster of Morsi. The court in Minya is also responsible for a series of mass death sentence punishments against Muslim Brotherhood members for clashes that occurred last year.

Egypt is also struggling to maintain national security as it is faced with threats on all of its land borders. To the west, Egypt has increased security and closed its borders with Libya as the threat of violence in their neighbouring nation threatens to spill over. To the south, Egypt is battling human trafficking that is filtering up from Eritrea and Sudan, the latter of which has been fighting an escalated war with recently separated South Sudan. To the east, the Egyptian border with Gaza has been closed after a breakdown of relation with Hamas in 2013, and in particular since the escalation of fighting between Palestine and Israel. Egypt is also targeting radicalised bases in the restive Sinai Peninsula, and attempting to protect the nation from home-grown radicalism that has grown through the chaos of building a new government in the nation.