IS Moving Further Into Libya in a Bid to Gain Access to Oil
January 5, 2016 in Libya
On 14 December, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian reported that the so-called Islamic State (IS) group is spreading from its stronghold on the Libyan coast to the interior of the country, with the aim of getting access to oil wells.
Speaking to RTL radio, Le Drian stated that “they are in Sirte, their territory extends 250 kilometres (155 miles) along the coast, but they are starting to penetrate the interior and to be tempted by access to oil wells and reserves.” Libya has 48 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves, the largest in Africa and the ninth biggest in the world.
News of IS’ spread further into Libya comes as world powers are trying to convince the country’s warring factions to lay down their weapons and to fall behind a new national unity government, warning that IS-allied groups are continuing to exploit the ongoing political chaos in a bid to take parts of the country.
Sources have reported that last week, French planes carried out surveillance flights over Libya. Comments by the French Defense Minister are likely to be a reference to reported attempts by IS militants to expand from Sirte into the town of Ajdabiya in the east. In recent weeks, there have been increasing reports of the presence of extremist groups in the town, however it remains unclear whether they are affiliates of al-Qaeda or IS. However if IS successfully manages to expand into Ajdabiya, then this could cut off oil supplies from that part of the country, where key oil terminals are located. In October, there was at least one failed attack by IS militants at the gates of Es Sidr oil terminal. Furthermore, throughout this year, other smaller oil fields in central Libya have also been attacked.
Libya has slipped into chaos since the fall of Moamer Kadhafi in 2011, which IS has exploited. The United Nations believes that there are between 2,000 and 3,000 fighters operating in the country, including 1,500 in the coastal city of Sirte. Since August 2014, when an Islamist-backed milia alliance overran Tripoli, Libya has had rival administrations.
US Officials Warn that IS Oil Trade ‘Worth More than $500m’
January 4, 2016 in TurkeyOn Friday, 11 December, a United States Treasury official disclosed that the so-called Islamic State (IS) group has made more than US $500 million (£330m) in trading oil.
According to Adam Szubin, despite its ongoing battle to over throw the regime in Syria, IS’ “primary customer” has been the government of the country’s President Bashar al-Assad, stating, “the two are trying to slaughter each other and they are still engaged in millions and millions of dollars of trade.” He added that the group is estimated to be making as much as US $40 million a month from the oil trade, including from buyers in Turkey. Szubin has further disclosed that IS had also looted up to US $1 billion from banks in territory that it held.
Szubin has indicated that cutting off the group’s cash flow is a key part of the coalition strategy to defeat IS, noting that unlike other designated terrorist groups, IS has not relied on funding from foreign donors but has instead generated money from its own operations.
For over a year now, the US-led coalition has been bombing IS targets, including oil facilities, in Syria and in neighbouring Iraq. Recently, the US-led coalition launched a military campaign, dubbed Tidal Wave 2, which has seen air strikes intensify on IS oil fields, refineries and tankers that are being used by the group. According to findings focusing on late 2015 from UK defense consultancy HIS, IS currently generates around US $80 million a month, mainly from oil revenues, adding that it found that other sources of income include taxation, drug and antiquities smuggling, robbery and kidnapping and the sale of electricity.
Questions Surface About Whether Turkey Really Gets Its Oil from IS
December 23, 2015 in Turkey
In early December, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that the decision by Turkey to shoot down a Russian military aircraft in late November was “dictated by the desire to protect the oil supply lines to Turkish territory.” His remarks, which occurred at a news conference on 1 December, effectively implied that the Turkish government was not only complicit in the smuggling of oil produced in areas of Syria that are controlled by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, but that it was also so heavily committed to this trade that it was willing to provoke an international crisis in a bid to protect it.
While it is doubtful whether President Putin genuinely believes this accusation, it has raised the issue of the possible dealings between Turkish government agencies and IS. Furthermore, by putting forth such an accusation, President Putin has the chance to gain propaganda points in his tussle with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and in some ways, it may legitimize recent Russian attacks on targets in parts of Syria that are held by non-IS rebel forces backed by Turkey. Amongst these attacks were the destruction of a large bakery built by the Turkish IHH Humanitarian Relief Foundation.
While the ongoing Syrian conflict has given rise to an extensive war economy, in which deals are struck between a number of partners, that include groups that are fighting each other on the battlefield, the smuggling of oil and petroleum products from Syria into neighbouring Turkey has been going on for decades, as traders and security officials have cashed in on the difference in prices that have been created by the heavy subsidies in Syria.
However with the ongoing civil war in Syria, the trade of oil and petroleum products has vastly evolved and in 2014, it saw IS take over much of the production of crude and refining business along the Euphrates river valley. This effectively represented about one-third of the country’s pre-conflict oil capacity, with most of the remainder under Kurdish control.
While there are many steps before oil produced under IS control reaches an end-user, it is highly likely that Turkish business people, customs officials and intelligence agents are amongst the people implicated. However it must be noted that the scale of the entire trade is small compared with Turkey’s own energy economy, in which Russia plays a dominant role. Furthermore, most of the participants are within Syria.
According to widely reported estimates, in mid-2015, oil fields under the control of IS produced between 30,000 and 40,000 barrels per day. Sources have disclosed that the supply chain entailed IS selling crude to traders, who would then transport it to small refineries that were set up in IS-controlled areas. The petrol and diesel produced in these refineries was then sold across Syria and Iraq, while any surplus was smuggled across the border, mainly to Turkey. While the quality of these products was poor, many buyers, particularly those in rebel-controlled areas, had little other option and typically paid a heavy premium over international prices. While IS was able to profit from the well-head sales, as well as gain from taxes along the supply chain, the profitability of the Syrian illicit oil trade was hit by the collapse in world oil prices in October 2014.
Oil purchased at the well-head for US $20 – 25 per barrel in mid-October could end up in Turkey being sold at below the world market price of over US $100/barrel, effectively yielding health profits to everyone involved. For a trader to make a profit selling bad quality Syrian products in Turkey now the well-head price would have to be much lower, and this would not necessarily make commercial sense for IS.
Since mid October-2014, the IS oil business has been further hit as US and French jets have started to target well-head facilities and tanker trucks for the first time. Furthermore, Kurdish and local Arab rebels have also seized an oil field from IS in the southern province of Hassakeh.
Turkey relies almost entirely on imports for its total oil consumption, which is about 720,000 barrels per day. A large number of those imports come from Russia. In 2014, Russia also supplied 27 billion cubic metres of natural gas to Turkey, effectively representing 56% of its total consumption. Russia was also Turkey’s largest source of imports, supplying goods worth US $2.3 billion, or more than 10% of Turkey’s total imports.
Paris 13 November Terror Attacks: Who Were The Attackers?
December 22, 2015 in FranceFrench officials investigating the deadly 13 November terror attack in Paris have identified most of the people they believe to have carried out the assaults, which were claimed by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group.
While the attacks are suspected to have been masterminded by Abdelhamid Abaaoud, who was killed in a police raid in Saint-Denis a few days later, two suspects remain on the run.
Bar and Restaurant Attackers
Salah Abdeslam
Authorities have identified Abdeslam, a 26-year-old French national born in Brussels, as a key suspect and has been the subject of a massive police manhunt in Belgium and beyond. He has been described as dangerous, with police officials warning the public not to approach him. While his current whereabouts remain unknown, reports have surfaced that despite heightened security, he may have managed to leave Europe for Syria. These reports however have not been confirmed.
Abdeslam is believed to have rented a VW Polo car in Belgium, which was later found near the Bataclan concert hall. However he also rented a Renault Clio and reserved two hotel room just outside Paris before the attacks. While his precise role in the attacks themselves remains unclear, his brother, Brahim, blew himself up. Investigators do believe that Salah Abdeslam may have driven the three Stade de France bombes to their destination and may have been given the job of an attack a short distance south, in the 18th district in Paris. That attack however never occurred. Hours after the 13 November attacks, Salah Abdeslam was in a vehicle with two other men near the Belgian border when they were stopped at least once by police. They were allowed to drive on after checks. It remains unclear whether French authorities had matched his name to the car found at the Bataclan by the time he was stopped. As the search for Salah Abdeslam intensified across Belgium, Brussels was placed on lockdown, and his brother, Mohamed, who was briefly detained by the authorities, later appealed for him to give himself up.
Salah Abdeslam has a past of petty crime, with Belgian prosecutors stating that they had questioned him and his brother Brahim earlier this year. Some reports have indicated that he spent time in prison for robbery, where he met suspected ringleader Abdelhamid Abaaoud. He had earlier been dismissed as a technician on the Brussels tram system for missing work. Dutch police have also disclosed that they had detained Salah Abdeslam briefly in February, fining him £49 for possession of cannabis.
At the end of last month, Moroccan authorities issued an arrest warrant for Salah Abdeslam. According to a Moroccan security source, it remains unclear whether Salah Abdeslam had fled to Morocco or North Africa. German police launched a search after a tip-off that he was there.
Brahim Abdeslam
Brahim Abdeslam is the brother of Salah Abdeslam. According to French investigators, Brahim died after he set off his explosives-laden suicide belt near a Parisian café on Boulevard Voltaire.
The 31-year-old had rented a Seat car, which was found the day after the attacks at Montreuil, which is located to the east of Paris. He had earlier appeared in several Belgian police files alongside Abdelhamid Abaaoud. The documents relate to criminal cases in 2010 and 2011. According to Belgium’s De Standaard newspaper, “investigators see a link with Verviers,” referring to a Belgian town where police shot dead two militants in January and broke up a a cell that was aiming to kill Belgian police offices. That raid occurred just days after the January Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris. Belgian judicial officials have also disclosed that earlier this year, Brahim Abdeslam had travelled to Turkey intending to go on to Syria however he was deported back to Brussels by Turkish authorities. Sources have indicated that while he was questioned on his return to Belgium, he was later released.
Both Brahim Abdeslam and Abaaoud lived in Molenbeek, which is a district of Brussels that has a substantial Muslim population. Some Belgian authorities have described the district as a “breeding ground for jihadists.”
Abdelhamid Abaaoud
Abaaoud, 28, has been described by the authorities as the suspected ringleader of the attacks. He died on 18 November in a long gun battle with police, who raided a flat in the northern Paris suburb of Saint-Denis. Investigators believe that he was involved in the bar and restaurant killings as his fingerprints were found on a Kalashnikov that was left in the Seat car that was abandoned in Montreuil.
Abaaoud grew up in the Brussels district of Molenbeek and was an associate of Salah Abdeslam. He has been implicated in four out of six attacks that have been foiled this year and is believed to have joined IS in 2013. Belgian police believe that he had been in Athens, directing a militant cell in Verviers in eastern Belgium when it was raided by security forces in mid-January. While Greek authorities had been following him, he managed to evade a police raid. Sources have reported that Abaaoud had also been in contact with Mehdi Nemmouche, who is accused of shooting dead four people at the Jewish Museum in Brussels in May 2014. According to lawyer Nathalie Gallant, Abaaoud’s father had become aware in the past month of his son’s links to terrorism and he believed that he had become a psychopath.
Third Attacker
Officials have not yet identified the third attacker. Furthermore, it remains unclear whether he escaped or later died in the police raid on the Saint-Denis flat.
Bataclan Concert Hall Attackers
Omar Ismail Mostefai
Just eight days before his 30th birthday, the French national of Algerian descent blew himself up after the massacre at the Bataclan. He was later identified from a finger-tip that was found in the concert hall.
Omar Mostefai was born in the Parisian suburb of Courcouronnes. He was known to police as a petty criminal. Between 2004 and 2010, he received eight convictions however he never spent any time in prison. Between 2005 and 2012, he lived in Chartres, near Paris, where he reportedly worked as a baker and played football with fellow employees. He attended a mosque with his father. While a local Islamic association leader has disclosed that he never showed any signs of being an extremist, with several residents reporting that the family was “very nice,” in 2010, French authorities identified him as a suspected Islamic radical, with his details entered in a database.
Despite his name in a database, Omar Mostefai appears to have been able to travel to Syria and he may have also spent time in Algeria. A senior Turkish official has confirmed that Omar Mostefai entered Turkey in 2013, adding that there was no record of him leaving the country. According to the official, in October 2014, Turkey had received an information request from French authorities pertaining to four terror suspects. During the official investigation, Turkish authorities identified a fifth individual, Omar Mostefai, and notified their French counterparts twice – in December 2014 and June 2015. The official disclosed that “we have, however, not heard back from France on the matter,” adding that it was only after the Paris attacks that the Turkish authorities received an information request about Omar Ismail Mostefai from France.
Samy Amimour
The 28-year-old Frenchman was another of the suicide bombes who blew himself up at the Bataclan.
He lived in the northeastern Paris suburb of Drancy and had been known to French intelligence services. In 2012, he was charged with terror offences over claims that he had planned to go to Yemen. While he was placed under judicial supervision, he later dropped off the radar, which prompted the authorities to issue an international arrest warrant. In 2014, Le Monde newspaper published an account of the journey of a 67-year-old Parisian man to Syria, in the hope of persuading his son to leave IS and return to France. While Pseudonyms were used in the original article, it has since been updated to reveal that the son in question was Amimour. With his son refusing to leave, the father later returned home without him. French media have since pointed out that Amimour was able to enter France prior to the attacks. He entered undetected despite the arrest warrant. Three of Amimour’s relatives were reportedly arrested shortly after the Paris attacks.
Foued Mohamed-Aggad
It took French authorities more than three weeks in order to identify the third Bataclan bomber. DNA from Foued Mohamed-Aggad’s Moroccan-born mother in Strasbourg was used in order to confirm his role in the concert hall massacre.
French media have reported that the 23-year-old was initially lured to Syria by one of France’s most infamous jihadist recruiters, Mourad Fares. Sources have disclosed that he went to Syria with his older brother Karim at the end of 2013. Eight other young men from the Meinau district of Strasbourg also went with them, however seven of the group returned from Syria within two months when two of them were killed. Only Foued Mohamed-Aggad remained, until he eventually came home to take part in the Paris attacks.
Stade de France
‘Ahmad al-Mohammad’
This man was the first of three to blow himself up at the Stade de France stadium. A Syrian passport, which bore his name, was found at the scene. While the passport suggests that he was a 25-year-old from the Syrian city of Idlib, authorities believe that this passport is a fake. A report in a Serbian newspaper, Blic, has said that a passport bearing the same name and data, however a different image, had been found on another migrant, suggesting that both men had bought fake documents from the same counterfeiter.
The Paris prosecutor’s office has disclosed that fingerprints from the dead attacker matched those of a person who came to Europe with migrants via the Greek Island of Leros. The man may have been posing as a Syrian refugee. Records from Leros suggest that he arrived on 3 October and was fingerprinted and photographed. An official in Leros has since disclosed that he remembers the man arriving, stating that something did not feel right about him and that he kept himself to himself. The official further indicated that he would have highlighted his concerns to an intelligence officer, had one been there. Leros authorities have indicated that they simply do not have the resources in order to screen all the migrants effectively, or even to check whether their passports are genuine.
Bilal Hadfi
Authorities have named the 20-year-old as one of the attackers who died at the Stade de France. According to officials he tried to get into the stadium while France was playing a friendly match against Germany, however he was denied entry and blew himself up in the nearby rue de la Cokerie.
He was a French national who had been living at Neder-over-Hembeek in Belgium. Belgian media have reported that he was radicalized in early 2014. Belgian prosecutors have also disclosed that while they were aware that he had gone to fight with IS in Syria, they did not know that he had returned.
‘M al-Mahmod’
A picture of the third suicide bomber at the Stade de France has been issued by French police. He has been named by media as M al-Mahmod. He blew himself up in front of one of the entrances to the stadium, on rue Rimet.
According to officials, he entered the Greek Island of Leros on 3 October and was travelling with Ahmad al-Mohammed. While French police have not yet named him, sources have disclosed that image released by the authorities matches a photo on arrival papers at Leros, adding that the two men purchased ferry tickets to leave Leros to continue their journey through Europe with other Syrian refugees.
Other Suspects
Saint-Denis
Hasna Aitboulahcen, a cousin of Abdelhamid Abaaoud, died with him in the gun battle that occurred at the Saint-Denis flat. Another man, who has yet to be identified, blew himself up at the flat.
Aitboulachen, the daughter of Moroccan immigrants, was tracked by French police who had tapped her phone after the 13 November attacks. According to sources, she was seen leading Abaaoud into the flat just hours before the police raid occurred. She had been radicalized only in recent months and was thought to have had a brief conversation with police before she died.
While initial reports indicated that she had blown herself up, police later disclosed that it was a man that had done so. While he has not been identified, there have been suggestions that he may have taken part in the attacks on bars and restaurants in the 10th and 11th districts of Paris alongside Abaaoud and Brahim Abdeslam.
Jawad Bendaoud
Jawan Bendaoud, 29, was arrested during the Saint-Denis raid. He is said to have rented the flat to Abaaoud and Hasa Aitboulahcen. He told French media before he was questioned by police that a friend had asked him to look after “two mates who wer coming from Belgium.” He further stated that “I said there was no mattress but they told me its not a big deal. They just wanted water and to pray.” A girlfriend, Hayet, who was with Jawan Bendaoud on the night of the Paris attacks, has since disclosed that he suddenly realized that he was in trouble. What occurred in the days prior to the raid on Saint-Denis remains unclear however Hayet believes that her friend had seen the state of the flat and was “aware of what was going on.” Bendaoud has been in trouble with the police in the past and has served time in prison.
Belgian connection
Mohammed Amri, 27, and Hamza Attouh, 21, were arrested in Belgium. They later admitted to picking up Salah Abdeslam in France and driving him back to Brussels in a Volkswagen Golf. Accoridng to officials, the pair received a phone call from Salah Abdeslam at 0500 on Saturday, stating that his car had broken down. While they insisted that no mention was made of the attacks, which had been carried out in Paris just a few hours earlier, Hamza Attouh stated that he was wearing thick clothing and may have been preparing to blow himself up. They also provided conflicting versions of where in Brussels they had dropped Salah Abdeslam off.
Abraimi Lazez, 39, was arrested in the Belgian town of Laeken, in a car where two guns and traces of blood were found. He has been suspected of helping Salah Abdeslam flee France in the hours after the attacks.
A French national, who has been named by police as Ali O, has been accused by Belgian authorities of taking part in the actions of a terrorist group and a terrorist attack. Police believe he may also have driven Salah at one point.
Two days prior to the 13 November attacks, Salah was spotted in the Renault Clio, which was used to drop off the Stade de France attackers. He was spotted with another suspect.
Belgian police have disclosed that they are now also hunting Mohamed Abrini, 29, who was driving the car with Salah Abdeslam as a passenger when it stopped at a petrol station in Ressons, which is located on the motorway to Paris.
Ahmad Dahmani, a 26-year-old Belgian national, is being held in Turkey after he flew to the resort of Antalya. He is suspected of being involved in preparations for the Paris attacks.
Islamic State Menace on the Rise in Africa
December 21, 2015 in Africa
United States experts have recently warned that two extremists movements in Africa, which have affiliated themselves with the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, could become a major threat on the continent if they come together and boost cooperation.
While for now, Islamist rebels who are operating in Libya and have proclaimed allegiance to IS, along with Boko Haram in Nigeria, have traded little more than praise over the Internet, along with probably some fighters and weapons. However experts are now warning that this could change and may develop into a regional threat. According to a former CIA analyst, “they could decide that instead of fighting to achieve their immediate local objective they decided to shift their focus and go after Western interests,” adding, “for instance, Boko Haram attacking the French soldiers of Barkhane, or the Americans in Cameroon.” The former refers to a French anti-terror operation that is currently taking place in the Sahel region of central Africa. While the former analyst noted that such cooperation could take place, he added that both groups are likely not yet there.
Boko Haram’s pledge of allegiance to IS earlier this year, and renaming itself Islamic State’s West Africa Province (ISWAP), appears for now to be more of a rebranding move, which came as the group was forced out of territory, which it had previously held in northeastern Nigeria. Experts however are warning that it could also be a transition into a larger global jihadist agenda. Movements that are geographically isolated can benefit from adopting the initials, symbols and rhetoric of the most feared Islamist extremist organization in the world. Over this past year, IS has been able to hold large swathes of territory in Syria and neighbouring Iraq, despite an ongoing coalition bombing campaign. Furthermore, it has also carried out deadly attacks in the region, including blowing up a Russian airliner over Egypt, and has inspired attacks on Civilians from Paris to London to California.
This move to a larger global jihadist agenda is already being seen within boko Haram, specifically in the attacks that it has carried out over the past few months, and in the way that it has begun to market itself. Boko Haram’s pledge of allegiance to IS and its renaming could enable the terrorist group to recruit foreign fighters. It is highly likely that Boko Haram has gained some advise on military tactics, as experts have noticed that despite ongoing military operations in northeastern Nigeria, Boko Haram’s attacks have become increasingly coordinated. In turn, the latest Boko Haram videos released by the group are of a more professional quality then older videos. They also carry the insignia of IS. Sources have disclosed that while the numbers remains small, there are indications that the flow of fighters towards Africa has already begun. Last month, two young French people were arrested in Tunisia as they were trying to reach zones controlled by IS in neighbouring Libya. Furthermore, experts have reported that in the April edition of its magazine, Dabiqu, IS called on volunteers to consider joining Boko Haram “if you can’t join the caliphate.”
In Libya, experts have noted that groups that have professed loyalty to IS have expanding rapidly, with some increasing their numbers from 200 to 2,000 members over the past year. Their growing power, fuelled by the post-Kadhafi political and security chaos that currently exists across Libya, has resulted in great concern for European officials. One expert has noted that if ties between Boko Haram and IS evolve further, this could develop into Boko Haram militants being trained in Libya, if IS gains further ground in the country.
