US CENTCOM Vice Admiral refutes threats from ISIL to commercial shipping routes

US Central Command Vice admiral John Miller said last week that ISIL does not pose a significant threat to commercial shipping routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, in the Middle East.

Miller made the comments at a conference in Abu Dhabi, after an article by the Daily Mail suggested that ISIL militants are working with sea-faring human traffickers in the Mediterranean to engage in piracy similar to that which occurs off the coast of Somalia.

The Daily Mail quotes an Italian defence magazine, Rivista Italiana Difesa, which said, that Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) could “repeat the scenario that has dominated the maritime region between Somalia and [the Gulf of] Aden for the last ten years’. The article also warns that ISILcould send boats “crammed with migrants” for use in “kamikaze” missions in the Arabian Gulf and the Mediterranean, particularly off the coasts of Europe.

Miller emphasised that the international maritime presence in the region had minimised threats from ISIL. However, he acknowledged that the group still has the capability to conduct surprise operations. He states, “As dynamic as the region is today, what we have seen over the past years is the maritime atmosphere has been safe, the free flow of commerce has been stable and secure.”

Currently the greatest cause for concern, according to Miller, is the unrest in Yemen. The combination of political instability and the presence of the very active terrorist group al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) have created a “very dynamic situation.” Miller states that the instability in the country could “lead to instability in the strait of Bab el Mandab in the Gulf of Aden in the southern part of the Red Sea, all of which is cause for concern”.

Yet, Miller adds in regard to potential surprise from Islamic State, “An organisation like ISIL is capable of surprising us … so we want to work hard to eliminate that opportunity for surprise and we do that through a robust presence ‎in the maritime environment.”

The combined international maritime security forces have as many as 70 vessels on the water per day. The Suez Canal Company has also increased security measures, despite the unrest in Sinai that has on occasion targeted ships in the canal.

The Strait of Hormuz, linking the Arabian Gulf to the Indian Ocean is a key shipping route, accounting for around 20% of total oil shipments by sea alone in 2013, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Yemen’s Hadi emerges, resumes presidency

24 February– On Saturday, Yemeni President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi has escaped his house arrest in Houthi controlled Sanaa and has arrived in Aden, where he retracted his resignation and announced he would resume his governmental responsibilities. He called all measures taken by the Houthis “null and illegitimate.”

Last month, Houthis attacked the presidential palace and ministerial Cabinet, forcing both the president and prime minister to resign. Houthi militants then besieged Hadi’s residence in Sanaa and put him under house arrest. The president sent an official letter withdrawing his resignation to parliament, but the group had never formally met to accept his resignation. Hours after Hadi fled Sanaa on Saturday, Houthi officials tried to force parliamentarians to meet immediately to accept his resignation, but their efforts failed. Former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, now head of the General People’s Congress party which holds a majority of seats in parliament, said it will not push for a parliament vote to accept the resignation of Hadi.

The Houthis’ takeover of Sanaa stunned governments of Western nations, which pulled out diplomatic staff this month. Since January, the Houthis have failed to form a government or reach a deal with other political factions for the formation of a presidential council. The rebels are investigating Hadi’s escape and have arrested dozens of their own security personnel who were responsible for watching him. Sources close to Hadi say that the Houthis have also arrested two people connected to the president: his media secretary, Yahya Al Arassi, and his private physician.

In the letter sent to parliament this week, President Hadi has urged lawmakers to work with him to “salvage the salvageable and to normalise the security and economic situation in all provinces”. He has called on all government ministers to come to Aden to reconvene. Prior to 1990, Aden was the capital of the formerly independent south Yemen. Hadi’s Prime Minister, Khalid Bahah, tendered his resignation at the same time as Hadi, and remains under house arrest along with other ministers and officials in Sanaa.

A day after Hadi’s emergence, hundreds of thousands of supporters filled the streets of seven Yemeni provinces. Protesters called for Hadi to stand against the Houthi coup. In Sanaa the largest demonstrations occurred as protestors urging Hadi to end militant occupation of the capital.

In Taiz, tens of thousands took to the streets to show support for the president, carrying placards which read: “Out to militant rule, return of government institutions.”

There already had been resistance to the Houthis’ attempted takeover of national government institutions from different groups in Yemen, particularly in the South, where there’s a long-running secessionist movement.

Yemen is also home to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, which exerts influence over many rural areas across the country. AQAP is also opposed to the Houthis, and last year vowed to attack Houthi loyalists throughout the nation. The US has been conducting regular drone strikes in AQAP controlled territories, under an agreement with President Hadi. The strikes have continued during his absence but it is uncertain how the tumultuous political landscape could impact the fight against the terrorist group.

US, French and UK embassies evacuate Yemen

12 February– Early on Wednesday after announcing their official takeover of the country, Shiite Houthi rebels attacked several anti-Houthi demonstrations. Later in the day, thousands of Houthi supporters marched through the capital shouting “Death to America, Death to Israel.” Amid the escalating violence, the US, British and French embassies have closed. The French and British embassies have encouraged all nationals to leave the country immediately. The US State Department currently has no plans to conduct a government-sponsored evacuation, but they have urged US citizens to maintain extreme caution amid an ongoing risk of kidnapping.

The Houthis captured large parts of Sanaa in September, however the embassies remained open. The closures today signal that the security situation has deteriorated significantly and is unlikely to change. Some analysts have indicated that Yemen is likely to slide into civil war.

Following the departure of American staff, Houthi rebels seized over 25 US Embassy vehicles in Sanaa. Pentagon spokesman Colonel Steve Warren said that although several vehicles were left behind, security forces destroyed heavier weapons before departing the US embassy for a commercial flight out of Yemen. In addition, embassy staff destroyed files and documents. Conflicting reports have emerged that the militiamen harassed US diplomatic personnel and confiscated their vehicles and side arms at the airport.

A small contingency of US military personnel that was not assigned to the embassy remain behind.  The closure will not impact counter-terrorism operations against al Qaeda’s Yemen branch, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). The branch is considered the most dangerous and active in the AQ network.

Yemen has been in crisis for months. Last week, fighters led by Abdel-Malek al-Houthi dissolved parliament and claimed formal control of the government. Weeks earlier, Yemeni President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi resigned and has reportedly since been under house arrest. Al-Houthi has repeatedly warned against foreign intervention, saying, “We will not accept pressures. They are of no use. Whoever harms the interest of this country could see that their interests in this country are also harmed.”

About the Houthis

The Houthis stem from a minority branch of Shia Islam known as Zaidism (Zaydism). Zaidis comprise approximately a third of Yemen’s population, and ruled north Yemen for nearly a millennia until 1962, when a coup d’état carried out by Abdullah as-Sallal, successfully dethroned Imam Muhammad al-Badr, who was the newly crowned king of Yemen. Sallal and declared Yemen a republic and became its first president.

North and South Yemen unified in 1990 under its first president, Ali Abdullah Saleh. Fearing a threat to their religious and cultural traditions, a portion of the Zaidis formed a rebel group known as Ansar Allah (Partisans of God). The group were led by Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, a former member of the Yemeni parliament for the Al-Haqq Islamic party between 1993 and 1997. The rebels sought to win greater autonomy for the Saada province. Houthi led the first uprising in June of 2004, but was found and killed by Yemeni security forces in September of that year.  After Hussein’s passing, his family took up the mantle, and the Houthis took on the name of their leader. The Houthis conducted five further rebellions until a ceasefire agreement was signed with the Yemeni government in 2010. During the 2011 Arab Spring, the Houthis joined the protests against President Ali Abdullah Saleh. When Saleh stepped down in 2012, the Houthis quickly used the power vacuum to expand control over the Saadi province, and neighbouring Amran province.

The Houthis claim that the Yemeni people were dissatisfied and under-represented within the government, which they feel is dominated by members of the old regime.

Critics say the Houthis are a proxy for Shia dominated Iran, which the rebels and Iran deny. Former president Saleh has been accused by the US of backing the Houthis’ takeover of Sanaa “to not only delegitimize the central government, but also create enough instability to stage a coup”. In November, the UN Security Council imposed sanctions on him and two senior Houthi leaders. The UN said the leaders were threatening Yemen’s peace and stability and obstructing the political process.

Yemen: Houthi Rebels and Government Reach Tentative Deal

After days of fighting in Yemen, the government and Houthi rebels reached a tentative deal on Wednesday, ending a standoff that caused Aden air and sea ports to close, and oil production to halt. As of Thursday morning, all ports have reopened. Oil production will likely start after the return of the president’s abducted Chief of Staff, Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak.

On 17 January, the Houthi rebels abducted Mubarak as he was enroute to present a draft of the nation’s new constitution. The Houthis had vocally argued that the commission drafting the constitution must ensure greater representation for marginalised groups in Yemen, particularly the Houthis. They said they had become aware of “irregularities” in both the text and how the government was planning to make it law. The new constitution could divide Yemen into a six-region federation. The Houthis oppose such a move and support the country becoming two federal regions.

Upon Mubarak’s abduction, leaders from Southern Yemen gave the Houthis 24 hours to release Mubarak, threatening to cut off oil supplies. They refused, and as a form of protest against the Houthis, oil production in Shabwa, Yemen’s most strategic oil province and home to Mubarak, was halted.  Shabwa’s governor, Ahmed Ali Bahaj, ordered all oil companies in the province to halt production before sunset, stopping three oil fields which produce about 50,000 barrels per day. The governor also ordered the closure of all government institutions in the province. In solidarity, Hadramout Tribal Federation sent a memo to the local oil production companies to stop operating in line with the escalating events in the country. Crude production from Yemen’s Masila oilfields in Hadramout province has also stopped. Yemen’s only gas terminal at Balhaf in Shabwa in the Gulf of Aden also halted operations after foreign experts were evacuated from the liquefied natural gas export facility late on Sunday. Total is the biggest investor in Yemen’s gas export industry through its 40% shareholding in Yemen LNG, where its partners are US-based Hunt Oil on 17%, state-run Yemen Gas Co on 17% and Korea Gas Corp (Kogas) on 6%.

Citing security concerns, the local security committee of the city of Aden ordered the airport, sea port and all land crossings closed.

During the clashes that followed Mubarak’s abduction, the Houthis also took control of Yemen’s state news and TV agencies. In a televised address on 20 January, Abdul Malik al-Houthi said that Hadi and those around him failed to implement political deals that could usher in a new era in Yemen. The Houthi leader said, “We … will not hesitate to impose any necessary measures to implement the peace and partnership agreement.” He added, “All the options are open and without exception and the ceiling is very, very high. And this is why, I here advise the president … Implement this deal. It is for your benefit and for the benefit of your people.”

The rebels also seized control of a military aviation college, and massive weapons depot belonging to the government brigade that provides presidential personal security. The depot contains 280 T-80 Russian-made tanks and other heavy artillery. Most of the security forces reportedly fled after a light clash with fighters.

Despite a tentative cease-fire that was put in place on 20 January, by the next day, the rebels stormed the presidential palace complex and shelled the private home of President Hadi. Early on 21 January, Houthi fighters replaced the guards at the president’s residence. “President Hadi is still in his home. There is no problem, he can leave,” said Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi politburo. Hadi was contacted by US officials and assured them he is “fine.” A Yemeni official said the President does not consider himself a captive, adding that the Houthis were assisting Hadi’s security detail in their protection mission because part of the detail had run away because of the fighting.

The Houthis agreed to release Mubarak and withdraw their militias from key government institutions if officials agree to a re-write part of the country’s constitution. Under the terms of the agreement, the government will accept changes in the draft of the new.                 Several of the constitutional changes sought by the Houthis would emphasize the characteristics of Yemen as a federal state and push for more inclusion of diverse groups. The Houthis have called for marginalized political groups to have the right to fair representation and partnerships in state institutions. If agreed, the rebels will withdraw their fighters from the capital, where they have held control of the city since September, and would cooperate with the government so that the President and state institutions can return to their duties. A Houthi official said the rebels will abide by the deal if the President follows a timeline specified in the negotiations.

A member of the Houthi political council said, “This deal draws the road map for the political process going forward with the participation of all factions in Yemen. In the past, timelines were not respected, who hope this time will be different.”

While the actions of the Houthis had the appearance of a coup, they stopped short of removing President Hadi. Yemen’s current leader is an ally to the West and to key Sunni majority nations. A government source said: “They know that if they bring about the downfall of the president, they won’t be able to rule the country, because Western and neighbouring countries will gang on up on them, as well as other provinces that are not under their control.”

At the time of this posting, air and sea ports have restored operations in Aden, butthere is no indication that oil has been restarted; it is unclear whether Mubarak has been returned to Sana’a.

The Houthis: Background Information

While the majority of Yemen is Sunni, the Houthis stem from a branch of Shia Islam known as Zaidism (Zaydism). Zaidis comprise approximately a third of Yemen’s population, and ruled north Yemen for nearly a millennia until 1962, when a coup d’état carried out by Abdullah as-Sallal, successfully dethroned Imam Muhammad al-Badr, who was the newly crowned king of Yemen. Sallal and declared Yemen a republic and became its first president.

North and South Yemen unified in 1990 under its first president, Ali Abdullah Saleh. Fearing a threat to their religious and cultural traditions, a portion of the Zaidis formed a rebel group known as Ansar Allah (Partisans of God). The group were led by Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, a former member of the Yemeni parliament for the Al-Haqq Islamic party between 1993 and 1997. The rebels sought to win greater autonomy for the Saada province. Houthi led the first uprising in June of 2004, but was found and killed by Yemeni security forces in September of that year.  After Hussein’s passing, his family took up the mantle, and the Houthis took on the name of their leader. The Houthis conducted five further rebellions until a ceasefire agreement was signed with the Yemeni government in 2010. During the 2011 Arab Spring, the Houthis joined the protests against President Ali Abdullah Saleh. When Saleh stepped down in 2012, the Houthis quickly used the power vacuum to expand control over the Saadi province, and neighbouring Amran province.

According to the Houthis, the people of Yemen are dissatisfied with their transitional government, led by President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi. They believe that it is dominated by members of the old regime and unlikely to result in positive changes for the poor nation. In August 2014, Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi demanded that President Hadi reverse a decision to remove subsidies that had hit the country’s poor and that he replace the “corrupt” government with one that better represented Yemen’s various factions. A growing number Houthi supporters, including both Shia and Sunnis, protested for weeks, holding sit-ins at government buildings and blocking main roads. On 2 September, Hadi agreed to dismiss his government and cut fuel prices by 30 percent. The Houthis found it insufficient.

A week later, security forces opened fire on Houthi supporters in Sanaa, killing several people. Clashes escalated in Sana’a and by mid-September, battles left more than 300 dead within a month. The rebels occupied government buildings and seized the headquarters of a military division loyal to Brig Gen Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, a Sunni Islamist who led the fight against the Houthis between 2004 and 2010. Amidst a rising death toll, a peace deal was reached with the Houthis on 20 September. The Houthis would withdraw from the capital if fuel subsidies were restored, a technocratic government was put in place, including an appointment of presidential advisers representing the Houthis and the secessionist Hiraak al-Janoubi (Southern Movement); and the implementation of policies agreed at the National Dialogue Conferences in February. The Houthis, however, refused an agreement to withdraw from Sana’a and northern cities and surrender their weapons to authorities within 45 days. As a result, the Houthis still control large parts of the capital, demanding oversight of ministries and calling for an end to what they call a corrupt political system. The Houthis have also expanded into central and western parts of Yemen, triggering clashes with extremist militant group al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

Critics say the Houthis are a proxy for Shia dominated Iran, which the rebels and Iran deny. Former president Saleh has been accused by the US of backing the Houthis’ takeover of Sanaa “to not only delegitimize the central government, but also create enough instability to stage a coup”. In November, the UN Security Council imposed sanctions on him and two senior Houthi leaders. The UN said the leaders were threatening Yemen’s peace and stability and obstructing the political process.

Bombing in Yemen kills more than 30

31 December – A suicide bomber killed over 30 people when he detonated himself at a cultural centre where students were celebrating the Prophet Mohammad’s birthday. At least 48 people were also injured, including many women and children and women. Medics and residents put Wednesday’s death toll at 33, saying that 20 bodies were transferred to al-Thawra hospital and 13 others were taken to another hospital. A local resident says that the death toll is likely to rise. The director general of the Ibb governorate where the blast occurred was among the dead. The governor, who was reported to have been wounded, has escaped unharmed. A second explosion was later reported outside al-Thawra Hospital. Authorities later said that security forces had been firing in the air to disperse residents who had gathered in front of the hospital.

No one claimed responsibility for attack, but it is similar in fashion to those conducted by terrorist group al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which has a heavy presence in Yemen. AQAP regards Shi’ites, the sect of Islam to which the Houthis belong, as heretics. The celebration, in the city of Ibb, was organized by the Houthis, the group that controls most of Yemen.

In a message of condolences to the victims’ families, President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi condemned “the terrorist and criminal” attack and instructed the government to ensure the wounded receive full medical attention.

Yesterday, unidentified gunmen killed army officer in south Yemen Tuesday, in the latest attack on military personnel. Captain Shaeq Mohammed Shaeq was shot with an assault rifle by gunmen on a motorcycle in Aden’s al-Qahera neighbourhood. Again, there has been no claim of responsibility for the attack; however it is consistent with a series of AQAP attacks on military personnel in recent weeks.

On Monday, two soldiers were killed and 11 wounded in a failed attempt to assassinate the commander of the First Military Region, General Abdul Rahman al-Hulaili, in southeastern Hadramawt province. AQAP claimed the attack, in which assailants detonated explosives planted on the roadside and opened fire as the general’s convoy passed.

In a separate attack on Monday in central Baida city, two gunmen on a motorbike shot dead intelligence officer Nasser al-Wahishi. On Sunday, a similar bombing targeted the commander of the 31st Armored Battalion, General Farej al-Atiqi, in the southern city of Aden. Atiqi escaped the bomb blast unscathed, but his driver was killed and two other bodyguards were wounded. A device that had been hidden in his car was detonated by remote control, army officials said.

Tensions have increased in Yemen since the Houthis captured the capital, Sana’a, in September. They have since expanded south and west of the capital. Yemen has been battling al Qaeda strongholds in the region while trying to cope with the Houthi advances. Further, the nation must protect its borders with the world’s top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, and protect access to key shipping routes from the Suez Canal to the Gulf. Concerns have arisen that the nation could become a failed state as it struggles to recover following the ousting of veteran autocrat Ali Abdullah Saleh in February 2012.

During the unrest, the military split between forces loyal to President Saleh and those backing General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, an Islamist-leaning general who had backed the uprising and went on to become a military adviser to current president Abed-Rabbo Mansour Hadi. Corruption, internal splits and competing loyalties in the army began before Saleh’s removal, and are now reaching a critical stage. The rift has weakened the army and contributed to the ease of Houthi acceleration in their mission to “drive out corruption”, and rise of AQAP militants. The current government must also contend with southern separatists who have been calling for a weekly civil disobedience day every Monday to demand independence.