Category Archives: United States

US Intelligence Analysts Conclude Russian Intervention in 2016 Presidential Election

On 9 December, a senior US official disclosed that US intelligence analysts have concluded that Russia intervened in the 2016 election to help President-elect Donald Trump win the White House, and not just to undermine confidence in the US electoral system. President-elect Trump however has rejected this conclusion.

According to a US official familiar with the finding, US intelligence agencies have assessed that as the 2016 presidential campaign progress, Russian government officials devoted increasing attention to assisting Trump’s efforts to win the election. Citing US officials briefed on the matter, the Washington Post reported on Friday that intelligence agencies had identified individuals with connections to the Russian government who provided thousands of hacked emails from the Democratic National Committee and others, including the chairman of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, to WikiLeaks. According to the US official, as summer turned to fall, Russian hackers turned almost all of their attention to the Democrats, and virtually all the emails they released publicly were potentially damaging to Clinton and the Democrats, not Republicans. The official disclosed “that was a major clue to their intent,” adding, “if all they wanted to do was discredit our political system, why publicize the failings of just one party, especially when you have a target like Trump?” Another source familiar with the report disclosed that the intelligence analysts’ conclusion about Russia’s motives does not mean that the intelligence community believes that Moscow’s efforts alerted or significantly affected the outcome of the election.”

US intelligence analysts have assessed “with high confidence” that at some point in the extended presidential campaign, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government had decided to try to bolster Trump’s chances of winning. According to one official, the Russians appear to have concluded that Trump had a shot at winning and that he would be much friendlier to Russia than Clinton would be, particularly on issues like maintaining economic sanctions and imposing additional ones. The official went on to say that Moscow is launching a similar effort to influence the next German election, following an escalating campaign to promote far-right and nationalist political parties and individuals in Europe that began more than a decade ago. The official added that in both cases, Putin’s campaign in both Europe and the US are intended to disrupt and discredit the Western concept of democracy by promoting extremist candidates, parties and political figures.

Russian official have denied all accusations of interference in the US election. The president-elect meanwhile has stated that the CIA’s assessment is being used by Democrats as “just another excuse” for his surprise election win.

The president-elect’s transition office released a statement that exaggerated his margin of victory and attacked the US intelligence community. The statement however did not address the analysts’ conclusion. In the statement, his transition team disclosed, “These are the same people that said Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction…The election ended a long time ago in one of the biggest Electoral College victories in history. Its now time to move on and ‘Make America Great Again.’”

Democrats and some Republicans in Congress however have called for a full investigation into Russia’s election year activities. In a statement issued on 10 December, the ranking Democrat on the House intelligence committee, Representative Adam Schiff of California, disclosed “protecting the integrity of our elections is hindered when President-elect Trump and his transition team minimize or dismiss the intelligence assessments themselves.”

On Friday, President Barack Obama ordered intelligence agencies to review cyber attacks and foreign intervention into the 2016 election. They have been tasked to deliver a report before he leaves office on 20 January 2017. Speaking to reporters, President Obama’s homeland security adviser, Lisa Monaco, disclosed that the report’s results should be shared with lawmakers and others, adding, “the president has directed the intelligence community to conduct a full review of what happened during the 2016 election process…and to capture lessons learned from that and to report to a range of stakeholders, to include the Congress.”

US Presidential Election: Activists Call for Recount

United States activists have called for a recount in battle ground states where Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton, over concerns that the ballot may have been skewed by foreign hackers.

According to the UK’s Guardian newspaper, a “growing number of academics and activists” are calling for an audit of the results in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Dr Barbara Simons, an adviser to the US election assistance commission and expert on electronic voting, was quoted as stating “I’m interested in verifying the vote…We need to have post-election ballot audits.” According to a CNN report a group of scientists, including J Alex Halderman, director of the University of Michigan Centre for Computer Security and Society, has privately told the Clinton campaign that it believes there was a “questionable trend.” Data experts are now asking why Mrs Clinton performed worse in counties that relied on electronic voting machines compared to paper ballots and optical scanners. While there has been no evidence found of hacking, experts argue that an independent audit is required. The group of scientists has reportedly informed Mrs Clinton’s campaign chairman, John Podesta, that she received 7% fewer votes in counties that relied on electronic voting machines, suggesting that they may have been hacked.

Mrs Clinton admitted defeat just hours after the election on 8 November. She lost to Mr Trump by at least 58 votes in the all-important electoral college tally, which is decided on a state-by–state basis. She did however win the popular vote by at least 1 million ballets. According to the LA Times, California still has to complete its official count, because of its complex electoral laws, however the state has already been called for Mrs Clinton.

During the election campaign, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) began an investigation into allegations that Russians had hacked the private email of John Podesta.   The hacked communications, which portrayed the Clinton campaign in an unflattering light, were later published by WikiLeaks.

US Presidential Elections: Donald Trump Outlines Plans for First Day at White House

On 21 November, US President-elect Donald Trump outlined his plans for his first day in office, including withdrawing from a major trade accord and investigating abuses of work visa programmes. Also on Monday, he met with Cabinet hopefuls at his Manhattan office tower.

Mr Trump met with Oklahoma Governor May Fallin, Democratic US Representative Tulsi Gabbard and former Texas Governor Rick Perry, however he announced no further appointments, in a move that will keep candidates and the public guessing about the shape of the administration, which will take office on 20 January 2017. Fallin, Gabbard and Perry are just the latest of dozens of officials who have travelled to New York for talks with the Republican president-elect in a relatively open, and unconventional, transition process since his election victory on 8 November. Mr Trump has so far picked two Cabinet members and three top White House advisers, with his aides stating that he was not expected to make further announcements on Monday.

While Mr Trump has not yet held a news conference since getting elected, on Monday evening he issued a video outlining some of his plans for his first day in office, including formally declaring his intent to withdraw from the Trans-Pacifi Partnership (TPP) trade deal, which he called “a potential disaster for our country.” The 12-nation TPP is Democratic President Barack Obama’s signature trade initiative and was signed by the United States earlier this year, however it has not been ratified by he US Senate. Mr Trump has disclosed that he would replace the accord with bilaterally negotiated trade deals that would “bring jobs and industry back onto American shores.” He went on to say “my agenda will be based on a simple core principle: putting America first. Whether its producing steel, building cars or curing disease, I want the next generation of production and innovation to happen right here on our great homeland, America, creating wealth and jobs for American workers.” There are however growing concerns for the future of the TPP agreement, with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe statin on Monday that TPP “would be meaningless without the United States.”

Mr Trump also indicated on Monday that he would cancel some restrictions on producing energy in the United States on his first day in office, particularly shale oil and “clean coal,” which he said would create “many millions of high-paying jobs.”

While eliminating regulations and withdrawing from the TPP were central to Mr Trump’s campaign, he sent mixed messages about his views on visa programmes, including the main H-1B visa for high-tech industry workers. On Monday, he promised to direct the Labour Department to investigate abuses of visa programmes for immigrant works. The main US visa programme for technology workers could face tough scrutiny under the new president. Furthermore, Mr Trump’s proposed attorney general, US Senator Jeff Sessions, has been a longtime critic of the programme.

US-Philippines Relations

So much for Duterte’s political correctness and what it means for the US-Philippines relationship

So much for political correctness when the Philippine’s president Rodrigo Duterte branded the former U.S. President Barrack Obama with profanity in September 2016. This has canceled his planned meeting with Obama in Laos where he expected to be challenged on human rights issues. What Duterte has finally gained though was not having to confront that topic.

Duterte’s congratulatory note to President Elect Donald Trump seems to indicate an attempt to re-improve the U.S.-Philippines relationship since his spree of anti-American rhetoric in the past few months. Following the U.S. election result, Duterte also said, “The United States presidential election is a testament to the enduring traditions of its democratic system and the American way of life. The two-party system gives American voters freedom of choice based on party platforms, not just on personalities.” Caution, however, prevails on the continuity of this new attitude toward the U.S. administration, particularly when his past statements toward the U.S. have been very confusing.

Duterte has very recently cancelled an order of some 26,000 police assault rifles from the U.S. after rumors that Washington stopped the sale. According to Reuters, a U.S. senator had planned to block the arms purchase over concerns about human rights violations. This may not be as surprising because Duterte did promise during his election campaign that he would kill the alleged drug dealers and drug users in the Philippines and there has been more than 3000 killings already since his presidency in June 2016.

Duterte’s earlier comment about separation from the U.S. has also been troubling Washington because the U.S. has been the Philippine’s strongest ally. Since Duterte’s visit to Beijing in October 2016 to sign a deal worth $13.5 billion and possibly to diminish the resentment over the Philippine’s territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea, it becomes somewhat apparent that the Philippine’s president is looking to China to replace the U.S. as a major ally for the Philippines. Daniel Russel, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, however, suggested, “it would be a mistake to think that improved relationship between Manila and Beijing should come at the expense of the United States”.

It is critical to understand the relationship between the Philippines and the U.S. that has institutionalized over the years before an attempt to speculate on how this relationship could transform with Duterte’s ongoing anti-U.S. rampage.

Economic:

• The U.S. is the largest investor in the Philippines with a direct investment over $4.7 billion and the country’s third largest trading partner;
• The U.S. has provided to date over $143 million in assistance to the Philippines in relief and recovery funds to battle natural disasters;
• The U.S. has granted the Philippines preferential duty free access to the U.S. market which also makes the Philippines among the largest beneficiaries of the Generalized System of Preference (GSP) program; 

Political/Security:

• The U.S. has designated the Philippines as a major Non-NATO ally;
• The 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty offers a security partnership between the two countries;

Demographic:

• An estimated 4 million U.S. citizens of Philippine ancestry live in the U.S.;
• Over 220,000 U.S. citizens live in the Philippines;
• An estimated 650,000 U.S. citizens visit the Philippines each year;

Clearly, Duterte’s diplomatic and political demeanor worries and confuses U.S. officials. A U.S.-Philippines joint military exercise due in October 2016 have been postponed to late November 2016 after Duterte suggested earlier that the joint exercise with the U.S. would be the last of such partnership.

On the human rights matters, Washington could decide to cut military aid to the Philippines or make it subject to careful judicial procedures. Consequences could also manifest into discontinuation of GSP privilege. Manila, however, has suggested that the Philippines could sustain without U.S. assistance, particularly when the Philippine’s latest approach toward China indicates that the country may seek assistance elsewhere.

It’s too early to say that Trump’s victory will mean a continuity of the current U.S. foreign policy toward the Philippines, however, potential U.S. repercussions will not be a surprise should Duterte’s actions toward the U.S.-Philippines partnership escalate for the worse.

US Presidential Election: Trump’s Shocking Win

Republican Donald Trump shocked the world on 8 November by defeating heavily favoured Democratic Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, effectively ending year years of Democratic rule and sending the United States on a new and uncertain path. Global markets have already reacted to the election results, with stock markets plummeting.

With voting still continuing overnight, Donald Trump has so far won 289 state-by-state electoral votes, while Hillary Clinton has so far won 218. President elect Trump effectively collected just enough of the 270 state-by-state electoral votes needed to win the four-year term, which will begin on 20 January. He won battleground states where presidential elections are traditionally decided. CNN has reported that Clinton had called Trump to concede the election. shortly before, Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta told supporters at her elect ion rally in New York to go home, stating, “several states are too close to call so we’re not going to have anything more to say tonight.” Mrs Clinton is expected to make a statement on Wednesday.

The election results overnight came as a shock as opinion polls had forecast that Clinton was the favourite to win. The latest nationwide poll had indicated that Mrs Clinton had a 90% chance of winning. However Mr Trump ended up winning avid support amongst a core base of white non-college education workers with his promise to be the “greatest jobs president that God ever created.”

His win however has resulted in serious concern both within the US and abroad. Worried that a Trump victory could cause economic and global uncertainty, investors avoided risky assets such as stocks. Mr Trump campaigned on a pledge to take the country on a more isolationist, protectionist “America First” path, vowing to impose a 35 percent tariff on goods exported to the US by US companies that went abroad. During overnight trading, S&P 500 index futures fell by 5 percent to hit their so-called limit down levels, which indicates that they would not be permitted to trade any lower until regular US stock market hours on Wednesday.

Both candidates however, albeit Trump more than Clinton, had historically low popularity ratings in an election that has been characterized by many as a choice between two unpleasant alternatives. Trump however came out on top after a bitter and divisive campaign which focused largely on the character of the candidates and whether they could be trusted.

US media have also projected that Republicans will retain control of the US House of Representatives, where all 435 seats were up for grabs. In the US Senate, the party also put up an unexpectedly tough fight to protect its majority in the US Senate. It will however be interesting to see how he will work with Congress as during the Campaign, Trump was the target of sharp disapproval, not only from Democrats but also from many within his own party.

Donald Trump, who at 70 will be the oldest first-term US president while his presidency will be the first elected office that he holds.