Ebola Outbreak November Review
October 31, 2014 in Ebola, Guinea, Liberia, Sierra LeoneAs of the end of 27 October 2014, a total of 13,703 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of EVD have been reported in six countries: Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Sierra Leone, Spain and the United States of America. The figure of confirmed, probable and suspected EVD cases includes cases in previously affected countries: Nigeria and Senegal. A total of 4,922 deaths have been reported. The death rate in the current outbreak has risen to 70 percent from the previously estimated mortality rate of 50 percent.
EVD transmission remains persistent and widespread in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, with World Health Organization (WHO) officials particularly concerned about the spread of the disease in the capital cities – Conakry, Monrovia and Freetown – where people are able to freely move across borders. All administrative districts in Liberia and Sierra Leone have now reported at least one confirmed or probable case of EVD since the outbreak began. According to WHO officials, “new cases continue to explode in areas that looked like they were coming under control,” noting “an unusual characteristic of this epidemic is a persistent cyclical pattern of gradual dips in the number of new cases, followed by sudden flare-ups.” While some regions in these countries have seen the number of EVD cases either stabilize or decrease, this does not mean that the regions are Ebola-free.
Countries with localized transmission, including Mali, Spain and the United States, are currently continuing to monitor potential contacts. On 23 October, Mali confirmed its first EVD case, a 2-year-old girl who died on 24 October.
On 21 October, the single patient with EVD in Spain tested negative for the disease for a second time. Unless a new case of EVD arises during this period, Spain will be declared Ebola-free 42 days after the date of the second negative test. In the United States, two health-care workers have tested negative for Ebola for the second time. They have both been discharged from hospital. Another health-care worker remains in isolation and is receiving treatment. WHO officials declared Senegal and Nigeria Ebola-free on 17 October and 20 October respectively.
The BBC has launched an Ebola public health information service on WhatsApp. The service will provide audio, text message alerts and images in order to help people living in West Africa get the latest public information on how to combat the spread of Ebola in the region. Content will be limited to three times per day and the service will be available in both French and English. To subscribe to this service, add +44 7702 348 651 to your contacts then send ‘JOIN’ to the number via WhatsApp. To unsubscribe, send ‘STOP’ via WhatsApp to the same number. Due to the large volume of requests, the BBC has warned that it may take a little time to be added or removed from the service.
Affected countries currently fall into three categories:
- Those with widespread and intense transmission: Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone;
- Those with either an initial case or cases, or with localized transmission: Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Spain and the United States
- Those countries that either neighbour or have strong trade ties with areas of active transmission: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea Bissau, Ivory Coast, Mali, Mauritania, Nigeria, Senegal, South Sudan and Togo.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has identified three patterns of transmission:
- In rural communities, which is facilitated by strong cultural practices and traditional beliefs;
- In densely populated urban communities;
- Cross-border transmission
- Countries with Widespread and Intense Transmission
Guinea
Guinea currently has 1,906 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of EVD and 997 deaths. While cases of EVD transmission are the lowest in Guinea, transmission across the country continues to be of concern and is being driven by transmission in four key areas:
- The capital city Conakry – Over the past week, there have been six new confirmed cases of Ebola reported in Conakry. The capital city remains a key area of concern with the nearby district of Coyah reporting 8 new confirmed cases.
- N’Zerekore – Located south-east of Macenta, the district of N’Zerekore reported 10 new confirmed cases over the past week.
- Keouane – Transmission remains strong in this district, with 22 new confirmed cases in the last week, effectively continuing a rapid three-week growth in new cases.
- District of Macenta – The most intense transmission in Guinea is occurring in and around Macenta, which is located in the south-west region of Guinea, near the border with Liberia. Over the past week, the district reported 15 new confirmed cases. Transmission in this district has remained intense for the past 10 weeks.
The outbreak’s epicentre Gueckedou has reported few new cases over the past 7 weeks, with 3 confirmed new cases in the past week, however transmission persists. In contrast to the situation in Liberia and Sierra Leone, several areas in Guinea have not reported a single case of Ebola while seven areas have not reported any new cases over 21 days after reporting an initial case/cases.
Two new districts in Guinea reported a case or cases of Ebola for the first time in October. In the eastern region of the country, on the border with the Ivory Coast and on a major trade route with Mali, the previously unaffected district of Kankan reported 1 new confirmed case. In the central region of the country, the previously unaffected district of Faranah reported 1 confirmed case of Ebola. Faranah borders the newly affected Sierra Leonean district of Koinadugu to the southwest. The central district of Mamou is currently classified as unaffected.
Land borders with Liberia, Senegal and Sierra Leone have been closed. Health screenings at all border crossings have been set up and all travellers displaying a fever, or EVD-like symptoms, will be subject to quarantine and/or denied entry/exit, from the country. Expect to experience delays at land border crossings. Enhanced screening measures have been introduced for outbound passengers at Conakry airport.
Liberia
Liberia has 6,535 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of EVD and remains the worst affected country in the current outbreak. The country has reported 2,413 deaths. All administrative districts in Liberia have now reported at least one confirmed or probable case of EVD since the outbreak began.
The most intense transmission continues to occur in the Montserrado area, where in the past week, 30 new probable cases were reported. This area includes the capital city, Monrovia. While the weekly increase in new cases in this area appears to have halted since mid-September, underreporting of cases remains to be an issue across the country, especially in Monrovia, and therefore it is difficult to capture an accurate picture of the current situation. Beyond the capital city, most new reported cases have occurred in the districts of Bong, Margibi and Bomi, which over the past week have each reported 12 probable cases. The district of Grand Gadeh, which previously was considered the only unaffected area in Liberia, now has 2 confirmed and 2 suspected cases of EVD. It must be noted that these new cases may have not occurred in the past week and that reporting of these cases was delayed.
Since 20 August, a state of emergency has been in place, with security forces enforcing a nationwide curfew. Between 11PM and 6AM every night no movement is allowed anywhere in the entire country. Liberian authorities have set up road blocks in a bid to restrict movement around the country while security forces have been deployed in order to enforce quarantine for certain areas, including Lofa county. In Monrovia, the army and police have sealed off the neighbourhood of West Point with the area being placed under quarantine. There have been a number of outbreaks of violence, with civilians rioting at hospitals and attacking health workers.
All borders of Liberia have been closed, with the exception of major entry points, including the Roberts International Airport and James Spriggs Payne Airport. The Bo Waterside Crossing to Sierra Leone remains closed along with the Foya Crossing to Guinea. Any remaining border crossings may be closed with minimal notice. The Liberia Airport Authority has introduced enhanced screening measures for both inbound and outbound travellers at airport facilities.
The Ministry of Health and Social Welfare has established hotlines for the public to get basic information on Ebola: Call 0770198517 or 0777549805 or 0886530260 or 0886549805.
General medical facilities throughout the country are currently under severe strain as a result of the Ebola outbreak. Dedicated healthcare facilities for Ebola are overwhelmed and may not accept further cases.
Sierra Leone
EVD transmission remains intense across Sierra Leone, with 5,235 confirmed, probable and suspected cases and 1,500 deaths. All districts in Sierra Leone have now reported at least one case of EVD.
Over the past week, the capital city Freetown reported 63 new confirmed cases and remains one of the country’s worst affected areas. The western rural region of the country reported 81 new cases over the past week, effectively making it the sixth consecutive weekly rise in the number of new cases in the area. The western districts of Bombali, which confirmed 56 new cases in the past week, and Port Loko, with 47 confirmed new cases, continue to be seriously affected by the outbreak. EVD cases in the district of Tonkolili are of increasing concern as over the past week the area reported 36 confirmed new cases. The neighbouring regions of Kenema and Kailahun reported 13 and 5 new confirmed cases respectively over the last week and remain amongst the worst affected areas of the country.
- Countries with Initial Case/Cases or Localized Transmission
Five countries – Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Spain and the United States – have reported a case or cases of EVD imported from a country with widespread and intense transmission.
Mali
On 23 October, Mali confirmed its first EVD case. The patient was a 2-year-old girl who had travelled from the Guinean district of Kissidougou with her grandmother to the city of Kayes, located 600 kilometres (375 miles) from the Malian capital, near the border with Senegal. She had travelled by bus via the capital city Bamako, where she stayed for ten days in the Bagadadji neighbourhood. The patient was symptomatic for much of the journey. On 22 October, the patient was taken to Fousseyni Daou hospital in Kayes, where she died on 24 October.
Currently 82 contacts – 57 in Kayes and 27 in Bamako – are being monitored by officials and efforts to trace additional contacts are on-going. At the time of the confirmation of the first EVD case in Mali, a WHO preparedness team was deployed in the country to assess Mali’s state of readiness for an initial Ebola case. The team was immediately redirected to provide support and expertise to Malian health authorities and to help with contact tracing and the training of healthcare workers.
In the wake of the first confirmed case of Ebola in Mali, neighbouring Mauritania has implemented some border controls.
Nigeria
On 20 October 2014, the WHO declared Nigeria Ebola-free after six weeks of no new reported cases. For officials to declare the country Ebola-free, Nigeria had to make it 42 days with no new cases, which is double the incubation period, verify that it actively sought out all possible contacts, and show negative test results for any remaining suspected cases.
Nigeria had a total of twenty cases after a Liberian-American man flew into Lagos International Airport on July 20 and collapsed shortly afterwards. The disease later spread to Port Harcourt.
While Nigeria has been declared Ebola-free, Nigerian authorities are preparing for any additional outbreaks as the current Ebola epidemic in West Africa is far from over and spread to additional countries, including to Nigeria, remains possible.
Senegal
On 17 October 2014, the WHO declared Senegal Ebola-free. The assessment was made after the West African country went forty-two days without reporting any new cases. In late August, Senegal confirmed one case of Ebola, an imported one from Guinea, which prompted officials to monitor seventy-four contacts of the patient and increase surveillance at the country’s entry ports.
Spain
A single case in Spain tested negative for EVD on 19 October. A second negative test was obtained on 21 October. A total of 83 contacts are currently being monitored. If no new cases are reported, Spain will be declared Ebola-free 42 days after the date of the second negative test.
United States
There have been four confirmed EVD cases and one death in the US. Two health-care workers have now tested negative for Ebola twice and have been released from hospital. Another health-care worker has been placed in isolation in New York and is receiving treatment. Of 176 possible contacts, 92 are being monitored and 84 have completed the 21-day monitoring period.
- Preparedness of Countries to Rapidly Detect and Respond to an Ebola Exposure
The WHO has identified fifteen countries that neighbour countries that either are experiencing widespread and intense EVD transmission or have strong trade and travel ties with countries with current widespread and intense transmission. These countries are: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea Bissau, Ivory Coast, Mali, Mauritania, Nigeria, Senegal, South Sudan and Togo. The WHO has assessed that Mali and the Ivory Coast are currently at the highest risk of importing the disease.
The WHO and its partners are currently working with these countries in order to help increase their level of preparedness in the event of exposure to EVD. Teams have already been deployed to the Ivory Coast and Mali, where they have been working with health authorities, and over the next week a mission will be deployed to Guinea Bissau. In the remaining countries, WHO teams and partners are working with local authorities to help identify any gaps in their capacity to identify and respond to an initial EVD case.
Ebola Outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
As of 26 October 2014, there have been 67 cases (38 confirmed, 28 probable, 1 suspected) of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The test results for the one suspected case are not yet known. This includes eight cases amongst healthcare workers. In total, there have been 49 deaths reported, including eight healthcare workers. All suspected cases have now been either laboratory confirmed or discarded.
Of a total of 1,121 total contacs, 1,116 have now completed a 21-day follow-up. On 10 October, the last reported cases tested negative for the second time and was discharged. The DRC will thefore be declared Ebola-free 42 days after the date of the second negative test if no new cases are reported. The current outbreak in the DRC is unrelated to that affecting West Africa.
Ebola Cases Continue To Rise; Nigeria and Senegal Could Be Declared Ebola-Free in Days
October 15, 2014 in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, West AfricaNew figures released by the World Health Organisation on Tuesday 14 October revealed that over 8,900 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) have been reported in seven affected countries: Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Spain and the United States of America. As of 14 October there have been 4,447 deaths. Health workers have been hit hard by the outbreak, with Doctors Without Borders reporting that sixteen of its employees have been infected with Ebola, in which nine of them have died. A top United Nations official warned this week that Ebola was winning the race as the WHO warned that within the next two months, West Africa could face up to 10,000 new Ebola cases per week if the outbreak is not contained.
Speaking at a news conference in Geneva, WHO assistant director-general Dr Bruce Aylward, disclosed that the death rate in the current outbreak had risen to 70 percent, from the previously estimated mortality rate of 50 percent. Acknowledging that Ebola was “a high mortality disease,” Dr Aylward noted that the UN health agency was still focused on getting six people into isolation and providing treatment to them as early as possible, adding that if the global response to the current Ebola outbreak is not stepped up in the coming sixty days, “a lot more people will die” and health workers will be stretched even further.
Experts in the field have indicated that the epidemic is doubling in size about every three weeks, with Dr Aylward indicating that over the last month, there have been about 1,000 new Ebola cases per week. This included confirmed, suspected and probable cases. Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone continue to the be the hardest-hit countries in the current epidemic, with WHO officials particularly concerned about the spread of Ebola in their capital cities – Conakry, Monrovia and Freetown – where people move freely across borders. While some regions in these countries have seen the number of Ebola cases either stabilize or fall, this does not mean that the regions are Ebola-free. Neighbouring countries, including Guinea-Bissau, the Ivory Coast and Mali are currently at a high risk of importing the disease.
The WHO also announced Tuesday that Nigeria and Senegal could be declared Ebola-free in the coming days after completing a 42-day period with no new cases. A statement released on Tuesday revealed “if the active surveillance for new cases that is currently in place continues, and no new cases are detected, WHO will declare the end of the outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Senegal on Friday 17 October.” If no new cases are reported in Nigeria, then the WHO will declare it Ebola-free on 20 October.
Senegal had one patient who was confirmed to have EVD. He has since recovered and it does not appear that anyone else was infected with the deadly disease. In Nigeria, one traveller from Liberia triggered an outbreak in which eight people died, most of them health workers. The virus spread from the initial case in Lagos to Port Harcourt however it has since been contained with no new reported cases. The situation in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone however is far different as, according to the WHO, “new cases continue to explode in areas that looked like they were coming under control.” Adding “an unusual characteristic of this epidemic is a persistent cyclical pattern of gradual dips in the number of new cases, followed by sudden flare-ups.”
Officials at the WHO indicate that waiting for forty-two days from the time when the last person with high risk exposure has tested negative for the disease effectively provides sufficient confidence to declare that the outbreak is over. The 42-day period is twice the generally accepted maximum incubation period of the virus however some incubation periods are longer, with the WHO is indicating that in 95 percent of Ebola cases, the incubation period was between one and 21 days while in 98 percent, it was no longer than 42 days.
Ebola Outbreaks in Senegal and Nigeria Contained
September 24, 2014 in Africa, Ebola, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, West AfricaWhile the deadliest Ebola epidemic ever has now killed 2,793 people in West Africa, World Health Organisation (WHO) officials disclosed Monday that outbreaks in Senegal and Nigeria have been basically contained. A statement released by the UN health agency also published the results of the latest meeting of its Ebola emergency committee.
According to new figures released by the WHO, as of 18 September a total of 5,762 people have been infected with the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in five Western countries. Guinea, where the outbreak initially began at the art of this year, along with neighbouring Liberia and Sierra Leone currently account for the most cases and continue to see their numbers rise. Liberia has especially been the hardest hit, with 3,022 cases and 1,578 deaths.
The WHO did note however “the outbreaks in Senegal and Nigeria are pretty much contained.” According to officials, Senegal has not reported any new cases of the deadly virus since it registered its first and only case on August 29 – a Guinean student who has since recovered. Meanwhile Nigeria, where twenty-one people have been infected, eight of whom have died, has not reported any new cases since September 8. While no reports of new cases in Senegal and Nigeria does signify that both countries are slowly recovering, the WHO has not yet deemed them transmission free as the incubation period for Ebola is 21 days and double this time must pass without any new cases arising before a country can be deemed transmission free.
In a statement released Monday, the WHO also indicated that during a meeting of its Ebola emergency committee last week, officials had determined that the outbreak remains to be a “public health emergency of international concern.” The WHO has disclosed that the committee reiterated its opposition to general bans on international travel or trade, noting that people infected with Ebola, or those who had come into contact with Ebola patients, should not be permitted to travel. The committee also warned that blocking flights to or from affected areas and other travel restrictions only served to “isolate affected countries, resulting in detrimental economic consequences, and hinder relief and response efforts risking further international spread.” The emergency committee did stress that in cases where measures like quarantines are deemed necessary, countries must ensure that “they are proportionate and evidence-based, and that accurate information, essential services and commodities, including food and water are provided to the affected populations,” insisting that “adequate security measures” should be put in place in order to ensure the safety and protection of heath workers, who face high infection rates and sometimes violence from frustrated and frightened populations. Last week, eight members of an Ebola education team, said to include local health officials and journalists, were found dead after they were attacked by angry locals in southern. This is the first such incident where health workers combatting EVD were killed.
Sierra Leone’s Three-Day Lockdown Declared Success by Authorities
September 22, 2014 in Sierra LeoneWhile authorities in Sierra Leone have disclosed that a controversial three-day lockdown, which concluded Sunday, was a “success,” frustrated residents reported food shortages in some neighbourhoods of Sierra Leone’s capital city.
A three-day curfew, which began Friday in a bid to contain the spread of the Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone, has been declared a success by authorities. According to the head of Sierra Leone’s Emergency Operations Centre Stephen Gaojia, the exercise was largely successful and the compliance and receptiveness of Sierra Leoneans was “overwhelming.” Speaking to reporters, Mr Gaoji further disclosed that officials “…were able to discover quite a lot of people who have been infected…” Deputy Chief Medical Officer Sarian Kamara confirmed that authorities managed to discover 22 new cases of the virus during the curfew, adding that between 60 and 70 Ebola victims had been buried over the past two days. There was only one incident of violence reported over the three-day period. On Saturday, local civilians attacked health workers trying to bury five bodies in a district located 20 kilometres east of the capital city Freetown. Police reinforcements later arrived to the area and the health workers were eventually able to compete the burial.
Although on Sunday rumours had circulated in Freetown that officials were opting to extend the lockdown, a Health Ministry statement issued Sunday evening confirmed that the lockdown had ended. The statement further disclosed that 75 percent of the targeted 1.5 million households had been contacted by outbreak teams, adding that outreach groups would continue to operate in “hot spots” across the country. Some residents also complained of food shortages in some neighbourhoods of Freetown. While the World Food Programme provided food packages including rice, beans and a form of porridge throughout the three-day lockdown, staffers were not going door-to-door and were instead focusing on serving houses placed under quarantine by medical teams. While agency officials confirmed that their workers had distributed two weeks’ worth of rations to 20,000 households, many residents complained that the provisions they received were insufficient.
The West African country announced the extreme measure in early September, announcing that the lockdown would effectively confine its population of six million to their homes for a period of 72 hours in a bid to stem the further spread of the deadly Ebola virus, which has already claimed more than 2,600 lives in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone. Only essential workers, such as health professionals, were exempt from the lockdown, as were some 30,000 volunteers who went door-to-door to provide advice on halting the contagion and handling out bars of soap.
Despite most residents in the capital city welcoming teams of health workers and volunteers bearing information about the deadly virus, rumours continued to persist in some areas of the city, with some believing that soap which was distributed by health teams, was poisoned. Persistent rumours such as this one suggest that public education campaigns have not been entirely successful.
According to new data released by the World Health Organization (WHO) on Friday, the Ebola virus has killed more than 560 people in Sierra Leone and more than 2,600 across West Africa, in what is the largest outbreak of the deadly virus ever recorded. The disease, which is also affecting Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria and Senegal, is believed to have sickened more than 5,500 people. Sierra Leone’s three-day curfew is the most aggressive measure to be taken against the virus by a West African country.
Ebola Death Toll Nears 2,000 Mark
September 5, 2014 in Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, West AfricaAccording to new figures released Thursday by the World Health Organisation (WHO), more than 1,900 people have died in West Africa’s Ebola outbreak. There have also been 3,500 confirmed or probable cases reported in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. WHO chief Margaret Chan warned Thursday “the outbreaks are racing ahead of the control efforts in these countries,” adding that at least US $600 million (£360 million) is needed in order to fight the virus. Ms Chan has described the current outbreak as “the largest and most severe and most complex we have ever seen.”
The latest statistics represent a significant increase from the 1,552 deaths and 3,069 cases that were reported by the Geneva-based organisation last week. According to the WHO, more than 40% of the deaths have occurred in the three weeks leading up to 3 September. This indicates that the epidemic is fast outpacing efforts to control it. According to Ms Chan, the WHO “…would like to reverse the trend in three months” in those countries where there is a “very tense transmission.” This includes Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. In countries with “localized transmission,” such as Senegal, where so far only one case has been reported, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which now has reported 31 deaths, the WHO “would like to stop all transmission within eight weeks.”
The speed of the deadly virus has prompted WHO officials to meet on Thursday in order to examine the most promising treatments and to discuss how to fast-track testing and production. According to sources, disease control experts, medical researchers, officials from affected countries and specialists in medical ethics will be represented at the meeting, which will take place in Geneva.
The Ebola virus has continued to spread in Nigeria, despite WHO officials stating that they were hopeful it would remain under control. On Wednesday, Nigerian authorities reported two additional cases in the city of Port Harcourt. Until the Port Harcourt case was announced, Nigeria’s government had indicated that the virus was contained in Lagos. On Thursday, the WHO warned “the outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Port Harcourt has the potential to grow larger and spread faster than the one in Lagos.” The UN health body has disclosed that the virus’ arrival in Port Harcourt, located 435 kilometres (270 miles) east of Lagos and home to oil and gas majors including Chevron, Shell and Total, showed “multiple high-risk opportunities for transmission of the virus to others.” Out of 255 people currently under surveillance for signs of the disease, 60 are considered to have had “high-risk or very high-risk exposure.