Key Judgments: The Houthis’ capability to attack subsea cables in the Red Sea is dependent on Iranian intelligence. There is a realistic probability that the subsea cables will be attacked. Severe disruption, however, is unlikely. Since October, the Houthi militants have captured the world’s attention...
Belarus For the past month, Belarus has conducted mass raids, interrogation and arrest against political prisoners and its friends and relatives. According to Vasana Human Rights Centre, Belarusian human rights group reported that this is one of the most serious crackdowns in recent years. In late...
Israel has a long history of conflict with Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), all of which are designated as terrorist organizations by Israel and other nations. Israel has recently been conducting targeted operations to remove key individuals within these organisations' leadership....
Key Judgment: Within the next six (6) months, it is highly likely that we will continue to see disruption to commercial shipping in the Red Sea by the Houthi rebels. Due to the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the Houthi’s, a Shia Islamist rebel group...
It is no secret that the threat of jihadist terrorism has been of pressing concern for intelligence agencies and communities across Western and Southern Europe for a considerable length of time now. From a UK perspective, in mid-November 2022, the director of MI5, General Ken...
Belarus As one of the remaining allay of Russia in European region, Belarus has been in the unique position of representing Russian interest. This has been continued for the last 1 month. Russia has completed shipments of short-range, tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, which raised strong...
LEBANON Tensions along the Lebanon-Israel border have risen in recent months, raising broad concerns about regional stability and security. The increase in tension began on October 7th and has been defined by a succession of important events since then. On December 4th Hamas reportedly established...
Violent clashes that took place in Libya during August made apparent the country’s chronic instability. With the internationally backed stabilization and unification process deadlocked, a multitude of armed militias are competing for influence throughout the country, making such violence inevitable. Meanwhile, due to their conflicting...
The 2023 presidential elections in Guatemala took place in a climate of mistrust of the elites due to numerous irregularities and several convincing cases of corruption, prompting voters to turn to a left-wing candidate with a progressive, anti-corruption programme: Bernardo Arévalo. Nevertheless, this victory did...
Violent clashes broke out in the Ain el-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon from late July until early August between Fatah and hardline Islamist factions. Although rooted in local struggles for control of the camp, the events could further weaken Fatah to the benefit of...