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Crisis in Mali

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Crisis in Mali

French President François Hollande has announced that his country is ready to stop Islamist militants if they continue to proceed with their offensive.  However Mr. Holllande noted that France would move forward only on the condition that they receive authorization from the United Nations.  Mr. Hollande’s statement is in response to pleas made by current Malian President Dioncounda Traore, who has requested immediate help to counter the renewed rebel offensive that has begun to move further south into territories that were previously under the government’s control.  Earlier this week, Ansar Dine, one of the Islamist militant groups controlling the north, indicated that it had entered the key central town of Konna and that it had intended to advance further south.Mali  Konna is a strategic point in Mali as it is located 375 miles northeast of Mali’s capital city of Bamako.  The advance has been seen as a major setback to government forces and it has prompted Mali to request urgent help from France.  Furthermore, residents in the town of Mopti have indicated that they have seen French troops aiding Malian forces in preparing for a counter-offensive against militants that are stationed in Konna.

Following this week’s rapid developments, an emergency meeting was held on Thursday by the UN Security Council, which called for a “rapid deployment” of an African-led international force.  The Council also expressed “grave concern” pertaining to the recent capture of Konna by “terrorists and extremist groups.”  UN diplomats in New York have also confirmed that President Traore has already appealed for help to Paris as well as to UN Chief Ban Ki-moon.

In the wake of Mr. Hollande’s speech, France has advised that all “non-essential” French citizens should leave Mali immediately.  This guidance is in line with other countries including the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada and Australia who have all expanded their regional advisories to include Timbuktu, Gao, Kidal and Mopti as well as the northern parts of Segou, Koulikoro and Kayes.  MS RISK currently advises against all travel to any part of Mali as there is an unpredictable security situation throughout the country which is coupled with a heightened threat from terrorism.  Any companies who have fixed interests in the country should take measured precautions such as the thinning out of non-essential staff, restricting travel throughout the country, seeking advice from security forces, ensuring that journey management systems are in place as well a review crisis management contingencies.

The European Union’s (EU) Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton has also called for “enhanced and accelerated international engagement,” and that the EU would “accelerate preparations for the deployment of a military mission to Mali to provide training and advise to the Malian forces.”  While it is not currently clear when a military intervention will be deployed, diplomatic sources have stated that Mr. Hollande is set to hold talks with Mr. Traore in Paris next week.  Although Mr. Hollande has not specified the type of intervention that France would take on, one possibility may be the use of air strikes if the rebels continue their advance and end up taking control of the strategic central town of Mopti.  Media reports in Paris are indicating that a detachment of French troops is already on the ground at the airport in Mopti, which is located about 43 miles south of the frontline.  Although it is not clear as to what their role is, it is highly likely that they are their in order to assess the situation ahead of a possible intervention.  What is clear is that any aid given to Mali by France will take place within the framework of a UN Security Council resolution.  In turn, any plans by France to intervene will no doubtedly take into calculation two questions:  the fact that there are seven French hostages currently being held in the Sahel region and what would occur if France were to intervene.  Secondly, what guarantees are there that an air strike would halt the advance and what back up would be initiated if the strikes were not successful.

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