MS Risk Blog

Ethnic Tuareg Group Ends Ceasefire Agreement

An ethnic Tuareg separatist group in Mali has announced that it is ending a five-month ceasefire agreement that was reached with the Malian government back in June of this year.   While the rebels have previously threatened to pull out of the peace deal, accusing the central government in Bamako of failing to fulfil its promises, this is the first time they have formally ended the ceasefire.  The rebels have confirmed that they will take up arms, following violence in the northern city of Kidal, a move which will likely effect the security and stability of the entire country as it heads into a second round of parliamentary elections.

On Friday, the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad announced that it would return to war against Mali’s army after indicating that one person was killed, and five others injured, in clashes with soldiers at an airport.  The announcement, which has been described by the group’s leader as “…a declaration of war,” comes one day after clashes occurred between Malian troops and Tuareg protesters who prevented Prim Minister Oumar Tatam Ly from visiting the town of Kidal.  According to Mahamadou Djeri Maiga, vice president of the MNLA, “what happened on Thursday is a declaration of war.  We will deliver this war,” adding that “wherever we find the Malian army we will launch the assault against them.  It will be automatic.  The warnings are over.”

On Thursday, several hundred Tuareg demonstrators occupied an airport runway in order to prevent Mali’s Prime Minister from visiting the rebel-controlled north-eastern town of Kidal.  While protesters indicated on Thursday that Malian soldiers had fired directly at “women and children who were demonstrating peacefully,” the central government has since indicated that its soldiers stationed at the airport had been “taken to task by uncontrollable elements” and had fired warning shots after being shot at and hit with stones.  One person was killed in the clashes on Thursday, while three women and two children were injured.  One of the women is in serious condition.

While Thursday’s incident has confirmed that tensions continue to exist between the Malian government and Tuareg rebels, the end of the ceasefire could potentially threaten security throughout Mali.  Furthermore, this will likely have an impact on the second round of parliamentary elections, which are set to take place 15 December, and Mali’s overall process of returning to civilian rule after a Tuareg uprising that led to a coup last year and the occupation of the northern regions of the country by al-Qaeda-linked militants.

The end to the ceasefire could potentially threaten security in northern Mali.  After eighteen months of a political and military crisis, the peace deal was signed between the rebels and the Malian government in June of this year.  The June accord, which was signed in Burkina Faso’s capital Ouagadougou, effectively opened the way for voting to take place in Mali, including in Kidal.  Two rounds of a presidential election occurred in July and August.   Furthermore, up until the agreement was reached, the MNLA, whose ultimate goal is the independence of Azawad, had refused to allow any government soldiers or civil servants to enter the town.  Under the June agreement, the rebels remained in Kidal however they were required to return to their barracks under the supervision of UN peacekeepers.  They were also forced to stop carrying arms in public and dismantle all roadblocks.

Mali Review

Malian Fugitive Recaptured

A Malian fugitive, known as “Cheibani” has been recaptured by French forces following his escape from a Niger prison in June of this year.  The fugitive, Alhassane Ould Mohammed, who escaped from a prison in Niger where he was serving a sentence for the killing of four Saudi tourists along with his alleged participation in the assassination of a US diplomat, was arrested by French soldiers in northern Mali on Tuesday.  Mali’s Chief Prosecutor Daniel Tessogue confirmed the arrest, adding that Cheibani had been arrested along with three other people.  According to Niger’s Justice Minister Marou Mohamed, Cheibani was captured after a tip-off from Niger security officials.  He was found in a hideout situated between the towns of Gao and Kidal.

Cheibani was amongst twenty-two prisoners who escaped from the jail in June after an attack on the prison was launched by suspected Islamist militants.  Following the mass breakout, officials in the United States unsealed an indictment for his arrest.  The indictment specified that Cheibani was wanted for the murder of US diplomat William Bultemeir, who was shot in December 2000 in Niger’s capital city as he was leaving a restaurant with his colleagues.

In September, months after his escape, a US $20,000 (£12,235) reward was announced for information that would lead to his recapture.  At the time of his escape, Cheibani was serving a twenty-year prison sentence in Niger for the murder of four Saudi citizens who were travelling with a Saudi prince on a hunting trip in 2009.

Demonstrators Halt Prime Minister’s Visit

Meanwhile on Thursday, Tuareg demonstrators in the northeastern town of Kidal occupied an airport runway in order to prevent Mali’s Prime Minister Oumar Tatam Ly from visiting the rebel-controlled town.

Shortly after the protests ended, demonstrators indicated that Malian soldiers had shot and wounded three demonstrators, however officials from the Malian army have denied these allegations.  An African military source has indicated that although troops from the UN military supporting mission in Mali, MINUSMA, attempted to stop the demonstrators from occupying and blocking the runway, they failed to remove the protesters.

Isamel Toure, an official in the regional governor’s office confirmed these reports, stating that as the airport was preparing to receive the prime minister’s plane, “several hundred youths and women backed by the MNLA went to Kidal aerodrome, determined to stop the planed from landing.”  Aides of the Prime Minister confirmed the incident, stating that “for the moment,” the prime minister had cancelled his trop.  According to his aides, prior to arriving in Kidal, the prime minister had been visiting Gao, which is located 300 kilometers (185 miles) south of Kidal.

Despite a signed ceasefire between the Malian government and Tuareg rebels, which was reached in June of this year, tensions between the two groups continue to be an issue and a threat to Mali’s stabilization process and lasting peace.

Mali’s Elections Off to Second Round

Officials on Wednesday announced that Mali’s parliamentary elections will enter a second round of voting on December 15, after no party secured an absolute majority in the first round of voting that took place on November 24.

While some 6.5 million Malians were eligible to vote for a new national assembly, with more than 1,000 candidates running for the 147 seats, turnout reached only 38.4 percent.  According to Moussa Sinko Coulibaly, the Minister of Territorial Administration, the turnout was “far short of our expectations.”

The goal of Mali’s new president, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, is to give his RPM party, and its allies, a comfortable majority in the new assembly.

The November 24 polls mark Mali’s second major step towards recovery after the country plunged into chaos in the wake of last year’s military coup.  They also mark a finalization of Mali’s transition to democracy after the process was started with the August presidential elections.  The latest elections in Mali have been viewed as generally being peaceful by foreign and national monitors however observers nonetheless regretted the low turnout.

Coup Leader Charged With Murder

Amadou Sanogo, the leader of the 2012 coup which effectively plunged Mali into months of chaos, was on Wednesday charged with murder and complicity to murder.  According to a judicial source, he has been placed in detention pending further investigations.  A source close to the case has indicated that Sanogo has also been charged with kidnapping, with the source noting that “other people” close to the coup leader will be questioned.

His arrest was ordered by investigating judge Yaya Karembe, who at a hearing in Bamako, charged the lieutenant-general with murder.  The hearing in the capital city came just hours after several dozen Malian soldiers forcibly entered Sanogo’s residence, which is located in the city centre, in order to arrest him.

Although Sanogo had been ordered in October to appear in front of a panel to answer questions pertaining to a number of deaths that occurred during a mutiny against him at his former headquarters in the central town of Kati, which is located near Bamako, the summons had been ignored by Sanogo, which sparked indignation amongst Malian politicians and activists.

Despite launching a coup in March of last year, in May 2012, Sanogo, along with his former junta, were granted a general amnesty, with Sanogo receiving the status of former head of state, which included all the accompanying benefits.  Although that status was later withdrawn, Mr. Sanogo was controversially promoted from captain to lieutenant-general in August of his year, a promotion that prompted a number of fellow ex-junta members, who were also seeking promotions, to mutiny at his Kati barracks.  This forced the Malian army to intervene in order to prevent another coup, and further destabilization of security, from occurring.  Shortly after the Malian military intervened, the bodies of three missing soldiers were discovered in and around the barracks.  Around twenty officers, including Sanogo’s former deputy, were subsequently arrested.  Human Rights Watch (HRW), along with other politicians and activists, have called his promotion a “shameful act,” and have argued that the former captain should have been investigated for his alleged involvement in torture.

Security Update: Egypt

Sinai Peninsula:

Ten Egyptian soldiers have been killed, and at least 35 wounded when a roadside car bomb detonated near a two-bus convoy which was carrying soldiers back to Cairo for their leave. The attack, which occurred on the road between Rafah and el-Arish, and is the latest and most severe attack on security forces in the Sinai since the removal of President Mohammed Morsi in July.

The attack targeted troops from the Second Field Army, which is headquartered in Ismailia. The Second and Third Field Army are responsible for security within the restive Sinai Peninsula and the economically critical Suez Canal. The army has heavily stepped up security in the region to ensure safe passage for ships travelling through the canal, and is in the midst of a large operation to eradicate radical groups from the peninsula, which has been rife with extremist elements since the 2011 revolution which saw the removal of President Hosni Mubarak.

As of yet, no group has claimed responsibility; however in another attack, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis (a.k.a. Ansar Jerusalem), an al-Qaeda linked group from the Sinai, has taken responsibility for the murder of a high-ranking member of Egypt’s National Security Agency outside his home in eastern Cairo earlier this week.

A statement posted to jihadist forums on 19 November revealed that the group was responsible for the 17 November shooting that killed Lieutenant Colonel Mohammed Mabrouk. Mabrouk was responsible for the managing the security surrounding the cases against the Muslim Brotherhood,  including the investigation of the escape case of President Morsi and other leading members in the Muslim brotherhood from the prison of Wadi El-Natron  in 2011. Mabrouk was due to testify against former president Mohamed Morsi when his trial begins in January 2014.

According to the statement released by Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, the attack on Mabrouk, conducted by its Mu’tassim Billah Battalion, was in response to the arrest and interrogation of Muslim women by Egyptian security forces.  According to the statement, the battalion is responsible for attempting “to liberate the female prisoners and to pursue who[ever] participated and contributed in capturing them, from officers and individuals of the Interior Ministry.”

Mabrouk was denounced by Ansar Jerusalem as “one of the top tyrants of State Security.” The attack on Mabrouk is “part of the series of operations entitled ‘Release the Female Prisoners from the Hands of the Tyrants’,” the statement continued.

Ansar Bayt al Maqdis also called for action from Egyptians: “Rise to defend your honour even if your lives go with it.”  The group also warned that fighters are “lying in wait [to strike] those like” Mohammed Mabrouk if detained Muslim women are not released. They are seeking “any information that helps us in tracking those tyrant criminals who participated in imprisoning our sisters.”

Currently, protections remain in place in the Suez region; no disruption in the region or service of the canal has been reported.

Cairo

On 19 November, several hundred Egyptians commemorated the deaths of protesters killed in 2011, calling for reforms. Many voiced criticism of the military, something rarely heard in recent times.

Since the removal of Morsi, the Egyptian police and army have been held in high regard. For the police, this is an unusual shift, as a great number of protesters in 2011 where revolting against police brutality. While the security forces have curried favour with a large population of Egyptians, the voice of criticism against the military has begun rise. Supporters of army General Abdel Fatah Al Sisi showed up at Tahrir during the protests, but were chased away by activists.

Protesters in Tahrir said the goals of the 2011 uprising had not been met and accused the security forces of acting mostly with impunity in the intervening two years. Protesters chanted, “Down with the military regime,” and, “We want to protect our country from oppression.” While many claimed not to support the Muslim Brotherhood, they also claimed that the military has more strength than it did before the end of the Mubarak era. One protester said, “We do not want Sisi as president. He is a strong defence minister and he should remain in that position. We want a civilian leader.”

At one point, security forces fired tear gas in an attempt to disperse the crowd, but were unsuccessful. Reluctant to avoid clashes on a sensitive anniversary, they departed.

Loya Jirga Debates US-Afghan Security Pact Amidst Tensions

Beginning yesterday, the Loya Jirga, a council of Afghan tribal elders and other influential individuals, is currently considering the proposed pact between the United States and Hamid Karzai’s government regarding the future of foreign troops in Afghanistan. While the Loya Jirga is widely expected to approve the pact, negotiations over the security arrangement have exposed the serious divides and tensions between the US and the Afghan government. Similar issues torpedoed the proposed pact between the US and Iraq, leading to the eventual withdrawal of all foreign combat troops in 2012.

The Loya Jirga consists of 2500 senior Afghan figures, including tribal elders, politicians, civil servants and NGO representatives. While its decision is not normally binding, President Karzai has announced that the security pact will only be signed if ratified by both the Loya Jirga and the Afghan parliament. The meeting will continue for four days, after which the delegates will vote. Currently, the delegates have split into many smaller sections to discuss and debate the pact. Reports from the scene suggest that while some of these debates are peaceful, others are extremely heated, and a small number of delegates have left the Loya Jirga in protest already. Nevertheless, the Loya Jirga is still expected to approve the decision, and subsequently the Afghan parliament will likely rubber stamp the pact. A rejection of the pact would likely see the complete withdrawal of ISAF forces at the end of 2014.

President Karzai appears have called the Loya Jirga in an effort to shift responsibility for the decision away from himself – the continuing presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan is extremely unpopular with significant sections of the Afghan populace. Another recent move by Karzai would have the pact signed by his Presidential successor following elections next year, something else that would likely protect his own position and has strained relationships with Washington.

The whole process of negotiating and signing the pact has in fact exposed the divides between the United States and Karzai’s government. The US wanted the pact signed by the end of last month, and continues to maintain that it’s timetable requires an agreement by the end of 2013. Particularly problematic areas have included criminal jurisdiction over American troops, and the ability of ISAF forces to enter Afghan homes without consulting Afghan authorities. Karzai’s relationship with Washington overall has been extremely problematic – the President’s frequent criticism of ISAF forces and about-turns on policy have created problems, while Karzai himself has often been placed in awkward situations domestically caused by the actions of US forces, such as in causing the deaths of civilians. The President recently announced that there was “no trust” between Washington and himself.

While the Taliban has rejected the Loya Jirga, and attacked a previous one in 2011, no attacks directed against the meeting have occurred amidst extremely high security in Kabul. However, last week, a bombing directed at the compound prior to the delegate’s arrival killed ten. The security implications of the Loya Jirga are more long term – the government of Afghanistan remains reliant on foreign aid, and would find it extremely difficult to support its security apparatus if relations with Washington disintegrated. The successful signing of the security pact is a key part of preserving this relationship for the next decade.

French Priest Kidnapped in Northern Cameroon; Another French Hostage Flees His Captors

On Thursday, the French Foreign Ministry confirmed that a French priest had been kidnapped in northern Cameroon, close to the border with Nigeria, nine months after Nigerian Islamists kidnapped a family in the same border region.  Reports now indicate that Father Georges Vandenbeusch had time to alert the French embassy prior to being kidnapped by militants overnight on Thursday.

Father Georges Vandenbeusch, 42, was seized near Koza, about 30 kilometers (19 miles) from the border with Nigeria, during the early morning hours on Thursday.  According to Paris-based bishop Monseigneur Gerard Daucourt, who is in charge of the priest, fifteen gunmen burst into the compound in Nguetchewe, where the priest had been working, demanding money.  According to the bishop, Mr. Vandenbeusch had time to alert the French embassy by phone before the gunmen stormed his private room.  His abductors then marched him barefoot across the village before felling on their motorcycles.  Monseigneur Daucourt has also indicated that the priest’s suitcase was found a road that leads into Nigeria with only a checkbook in it.  According to a nun who worked with Mr. Vandenbeusch at the compound, the gunmen were speaking in English and had arrived on foot.

Agustine Fonka Awa, governor of the Far North region, has since travelled to Nguetchewe along with security forces in order to investigate the kidnapping however he has stated that the priest has likely already been taken across the border into Nigeria.  According to officials in Nigeria, the Far North region of Cameroon has been used by Boko Haram militants in order to transport weapons and to hide from the six-month ongoing military offensive against them.  Officials in Aubja last week appealed to Cameroon to tighten security along the border as the porous region has enabled Boko Haram militants to easily launch attacks and to go into hiding.

Mr. Vandenbeusch is likely to have been targeted by militants as he was known to help Nigerians flee attacks carried out by Boko Haram.  An official at the Paris prosecutor’s office has confirmed that an investigation has been opened into the “kidnapping and illegal confinement by a group linked to a terrorist organization.”  France’s Foreign Ministry has also indicated that so far no group has claimed responsibility for the kidnapping however it is believed that members of either Boko Haram or Ansaru, militant groups known to operate in the region, are likely behind the abduction.  France’s Foreign Ministry are currently in the process of establishing the identity of the kidnappers.

The kidnapping of the Roman Catholic priest occurred near the area where another French family had been abducted earlier this year.  Seven members, four of them children under the age of twelve, of the Moulin-Fournier family were kidnapped by Islamist militants near Cameroon’s northern Waza National Park, which likes just a few kilometers from the Nigerian border, in February of this year.  They were taken over the border into neighboring Nigeria and held hostage for two months.  Despite officials from France and Cameroon denying that a ransom payment was made, a confidential report from the Nigerian government indicated that Boko Haram, who was responsible for the kidnapping, had received a ransom payment of US $3.15 million (£2 million) before releasing the family.  Similarly last month, the French media reported that a €20 million ransom payment had been paid in order to secure the release of four French hostages who were abducted in Niger in 2010.  This allegation has strongly been denied by the French government.

Mr. Vandenbeusch’s abduction is the latest in a series of attacks on French targets in West Africa ever since the country launched a military intervention in January to remove al-Qaeda-linked militants from the northern region of Mali.  The latest kidnapping of a French national also comes at a time when France has over the pat month both celebrated the release of four hostages and mourned the killing of two journalists.  On 29 October, President Francois Hollande confirmed the release of four French hostages who were kidnapped in Niger in 2010.  The hostages had been held in northern Mali by Islamist militants.  While their return to France was seen as a victory, their release was marred when just days later on 2 November two French journalists working for Radio France Internationale (RFI) were killed in Mali by militants claiming to represent al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).  According to the militants, the killings were in retaliation for France’s ongoing operation in Mali however security experts have since stated that the killings were the result of a failed kidnapping attempt when the militants‘ vehicle broke down, forcing them to kill the hostages amidst fears that they would be tracked down by French forces.  The recent incidents have also sparked an urgent call French President Francois Hollande, asking all French citizens not to put themselves in harm’s way.  While France’s Foreign Ministry had previously categorized the northern region of Cameroon as a high risk for kidnapping, warning any citizens in the area to leave immediately, reports have now indicated that Mr. Vandenbeusch had repeatedly ignored those warnings.  According to French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, “he had been told several times that the area is dangerous….We had expressly advised him not to stay on but he though he should remain there.”  Mr. Vandenbeusch arrived in Cameroon in 2011, having previously been a priest in the Paris suburb of Sceaux.

French Hostage Escapes After Nearly One Year in Captivity

Meanwhile another French hostage, Francis Collomp, who was held by Islamist militants in northern Nigeria for nearly a year, is free after reportedly escaping during a shoot-out.

Reports have indicated that Mr. Collomp had managed to escape from his cell during an army operation that was carried out against the militants.  A source close to the case has indicated that Mr. Collomp fled after his cell door was left open.  He then hailed a taxi which took him to the police, from where he was brought to Kaduna.  According to Femi Adenaike Adeleye, the police commissioner in the regional capital of Kaduna, Mr. Collomp escaped in the northern city of Zaria on Saturday while his captors were praying,” adding that “he watched his captors’ prayer time.  They always prayed for 15 minutes.  And yesterday they did not lock the door to his cell.”  The commissioner further added that Mr. Collomp had been held in the city of Kano after his abduction and that he had been brought to Zaria about two months ago.

On Sunday, French President Francois Hollande has thanked Nigeria’s authorities for helping secure the release of Francis Collomp, 63, in the northern city of Zaria.  Mr. Collomp left Abuja on a flight to Paris late on Sunday.  He was accompanied by French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius.  Didier Le Bret, the head of the French foreign ministry’s crisis centre, indicated that Mr. Collomp was “weakened” but in good enough health to travel.”  He is expected to arrive in Paris around 6:00AM (0500 GMT) on Monday, where he will be met by French Prime Minsiter Jean-Marc Ayrault.

Mr. Collomp was kidnapped on 19 December 2012 by about thirty armed men who attacked the residence of his employer, French wind turbine manufacturer Vergnet, in the northern Nigerian state of Katsina. The kidnapping, which left two bodyguards and a bystander dead, was claimed by Ansaru, a militant group linked to Boko Haram.

At Least Seven Remain

With the release of Mr. Collomp, and four other French hostages earlier this month, at least seven French hostages are still being held captive abroad.

Mali

• On 24 November 2011, Frenchmen Serge Lazarevic and Philippe Verdon are kidnapped from their hotel in Hombori, northeastern Mali, while on a business trip.  Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) claimed responsibility on December 9.  Mr. Verdon was killed earlier this year.  His death was confirmed by French officials.
• On 20 November 2012 – Gilberto Rodriguez Leal, a Portuguese-born French citizen, is abducted by at least six armed men in Diema, western Mali, while travelling by car from Mauritania.  On 22 November, al-Qaeda-linked Islamist rebel group the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) claimed responsibility for the kidnapping.

Cameroon/Nigeria

• 14 November 2013 Roman Catholic priest Georges Vandenbeusch abducted from his home near the town of Koza in northern Cameroon, about 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the border with Nigeria.

Syria

• 6 June 2013 two French journalists, Didier Francois from Europe 1 Radio and Edouard Elias, an independent photographer working for the same station, are reported missing in Syria.  The office of French President Francois Hollande indicated that the pair were intercepted by unknown kidnappers at a checkpoint while travelling towards Aleppo.
• 9 October 2013 – The capture of reporter Nicolas Henin and Photographer Pierre Torres is announced by their families and the French Foreign Ministry.  The two men were kidnapped on June 22 while working in the northern city of Raqqa.  None of the armed groups fighting for control of the town have claimed responsibility, nor have any demands been made.